2016/2017 Off-Season Thread

[Stokes1931]

Ultimately, the problem with Belt is that he is a head case. He goes ice cold for long stretches and IMHO has trouble in clutch situations. I like Belt, but we need a bat that worries people at 1B....and in LF for that matter. Jarrett Parker feels like a better play at 1B than Belt. At least he has his head in the game every day.

I tend to agree with Cal on this one.

I like Belt and his defense is stellar, and he really upped his OBP this season.

However, we need RBI hitters, we have enough guys who get on base.

I was wondering how Belt did with the team ahead (or tied) or the team behind.

BBRef has this stat, closest I can get on short notice on a rainy Friday afternoon:

Belt, when team Wins: .309/.399/.557/.957

Belt, when team Loses: .231/.311/.350/.662

That, my friends, is a huge drop off.

Chicken and egg, I suppose. Does Belt do well when the Giants win, or do the Giants do well when Belt does well?

Belt appears to me not to be clutch, but none of the Giants were clutch in the second half this season.

Like Cal, I would not advocate getting rid of Belt unless there was a position of need acquired.

 

[calsnowskier]

I tend to agree with Cal on this one.

I like Belt and his defense is stellar, and he really upped his OBP this season.

However, we need RBI hitters, we have enough guys who get on base.

I was wondering how Belt did with the team ahead (or tied) or the team behind.

BBRef has this stat, closest I can get on short notice on a rainy Friday afternoon:

Belt, when team Wins: .309/.399/.557/.957

Belt, when team Loses: .231/.311/.350/.662

That, my friends, is a huge drop off.

Chicken and egg, I suppose. Does Belt do well when the Giants win, or do the Giants do well when Belt does well?

Belt appears to me not to be clutch, but none of the Giants were clutch in the second half this season.

Like Cal, I would not advocate getting rid of Belt unless there was a position of need acquired.

Maybe I am just not communicating well. I like Belt. I just think he is not a good enough FIRST BASEMAN to lock down. Especially when we don't have what a traditional first baseman provides elsewhere (Bonds, Kent and Aurilia made Snow a possibility).

The fact that Belt was the best hitter on this team is completely immaterial. The first baseman SHOULD be the best hitter on a team. The issue is that the team has no good hitters, not that Belt is the best of them.

Who would we take at first base right now over belt? In no particular order...

Goldschmidt
Rizzo
Votto
Cabrera ($$ is a legit issue)
Freeman
Abreu (??)
AGone (??)
Davis (??)
Hosmer (??)

That is 4 guys who, I think, we can all agree we would take over belt, all things considered, moving forward (Goldy, Rizzo, Votto, Freeman). There are another 2 or 3 guys who we would be at least happy to be "stuck with" (Miggy, Abreu, AGone). Then there are a bunch of kids who I can't name because I am not a paid scout who may get into the convo as well (Bird, Shaw?). Next you have the guys who can be picked up for next to free at the end of the FA period on 1-year contracts (historically - Huff, Larouch(sp?)).

 

[calsnowskier]

Ultimately, the problem with Belt is that he is a head case. He goes ice cold for long stretches and IMHO has trouble in clutch situations. I like Belt, but we need a bat that worries people at 1B....and in LF for that matter. Jarrett Parker feels like a better play at 1B than Belt. At least he has his head in the game every day.

To be fair, do we know Parker keeps a better head?

He has power, but there has to be a reason the org does not trust him with more PT.

 

[calsnowskier]

whelp, just looking at the stats presented, I think it's cherry picking to say "5 guys and everyone else." Here's why -- using a differential chart

Votto
Freeman -17
Cabrera -12
Rizzo -28
Goldschmidt -29
Belt -31

That is, the difference from 3 to 4, 4 to 5, and 5 to 6 is pretty similar. It'd be better to say there are "3 guys and everyone else," but you drew the line between Goldy and Belt to make your point. THEN, you jump down to Abreu who is "only" -48. Ditto Davis.

In sum, you make a big deal about a -31 jump from Goldy to Belt, but gloss over -48 and -53 differentials to Abreu and Davis. Can't have it both ways.

No one stat is going to capture everything, but OPS is a decent one. WAR is another.

By WAR:

Freeman 6.1
Rizzo 5.2
Votto 5.0
Cabrera 4.9
Goldschmidt 4.8
Belt 4.4
Myers 3.8
Santana 3.7
Carpenter 3.2
Davis 2.7
Ramirez 2.6
Pearce 2.0
...
Abreu 1.6

By this metric, Belt is kind of alone at #6. You've elevated two guys who are significantly less valuable than Belt, and it's not real close.

Putting all this together, Belt is likely the sixth best 1b in the majors. Worth a long term contract?

Probably.

Fair arguments.

But I brought in Abreu and Davis in, not based on their OPS's, but to show that there are players lower on the list that would have an argument for being "better" than Belt in a moving forward scenario. Abreu had a bad year, but he has the track record of being better. Belt has the track record of being worse. Moving forward, would you rather have belt (with his contract) or Abreu (with his contract)? I am not saying it is a clear cut answer. Just posing the question.

 

[Stokes1931]

Whiteside's fault!

 

[stanford the manford]

To be fair, do we know Parker keeps a better head?

He has power, but there has to be a reason the org does not trust him with more PT.

we haven't seen enough out of parker to determine if he's an everyday player. it's unfortunate neither he nor williamson were given an extended play every day chance in the line up during the post asb slump

 

[calsnowskier]

we haven't seen enough out of parker to determine if he's an everyday player. it's unfortunate neither he nor williamson were given an extended play every day chance in the line up during the post asb slump

That was mentioned here.

But the only place they could have played was CF in place of Span. And while Parker has experience in center (he was drafted as a CFer), he is not a MLB CFer.

Pagan was hitting well enough to keep his job and Pence is still established enough to be able to weather an off season.

 

[stanford the manford]

jmo on belt.

i was never in favor of giving him a long term high priced contract for all the reasons mentioned, but the giants did this on the back of some other questionable contracts (cain for example). given they did that, i have to assume they are all in on belt. i love his defense, and infield defense is a hall mark of the giants, but his approach at the plate is pathetic. when's he cold, and i'd say its now over 1/2 of the time, you might as well sit him and put buster at 1st to save what's left of his legs/power.

i assume belt will be on the roster for the foreseeable future. he appears to me to be headstrong/stubborn. i know a few years ago the giants tried and tried to get him to narrow his stance and re-position himself in the box. finally he did and had great results. but then he reverted to his old ways and b.a. fell off the map. he's not likely to change at this point in his career with the huge contract he received. and no one will pick up that contract

if it was up to me i'd hire bonds as his personal hitting coach in spring training and issue barry a cattle prod. he's stand in back of brandon and every time he'd position himself in the box incorrectly - zap!. everytime he'd take an inside strike.. zap! everytime he takes that stupid uppercut popup swing.. zap! afters years of watching the guy, i think that's the only way to get through to him.

he's a numer 6 hitter even when on, when cold his place in on the bench or perhaps ninth...

now... how do we restructure the outfield and 3rd base, realistically that's where we'll see offensive and defensive changes - not at 1st

 

[stanford the manford]

That was mentioned here.

But the only place they could have played was CF in place of Span. And while Parker has experience in center (he was drafted as a CFer), he is not a MLB CFer.

Pagan was hitting well enough to keep his job and Pence is still established enough to be able to weather an off season.

sorry.. haven't kept up with the threads. but i disagree on pagan. granted he seemed at times in the 2nd half to be the only one who gave a crap, but his defense is very much on the downslope. i believe its a contact year and i doubt he'll settle for a 1 or 2 year deal. i don't want to see him in 2yrs, much less anything longer than that.

span is not a leadoff hitter at this point in his career. his base running left much to be desired. mark my words, both he and pagan (and pence) will spend as much time on the d/l as on the field next year.

pence is aging as well, i'd rather see the giants get value for him while they can (i think he has 2 more years and i believe this is year 2 of span's 2 year deal). pence looked horrible at the plate ever since coming back from his hammy surgery. maybe he'll get back to the pence of old, maybe he won't. if the giants cannot get some power in the line up, having pence punch-and-judy in '17 won't result in a playoff berth. at this point i'd roll the dice on the whole outfield, maybe keep span for another year unless they could get some value for him. blanco is ready to go. i'm fine with gorkys as a back up.

i love pence, pagan, and blanco (i was there for his catch to preserve cain's perfecto), but i'd rather see contracts cut short and get some youth in we can build on than watch further decline of players who will be stretched to be productive and healthy....

now about arroyo....

 

[SFGRTB]

Maybe I am just not communicating well. I like Belt. I just think he is not a good enough FIRST BASEMAN to lock down. Especially when we don't have what a traditional first baseman provides elsewhere (Bonds, Kent and Aurilia made Snow a possibility).

The fact that Belt was the best hitter on this team is completely immaterial. The first baseman SHOULD be the best hitter on a team. The issue is that the team has no good hitters, not that Belt is the best of them.

Who would we take at first base right now over belt? In no particular order...

Goldschmidt
Rizzo
Votto
Cabrera ($$ is a legit issue)
Freeman
Abreu (??)
AGone (??)
Davis (??)
Hosmer (??)

That is 4 guys who, I think, we can all agree we would take over belt, all things considered, moving forward (Goldy, Rizzo, Votto, Freeman). There are another 2 or 3 guys who we would be at least happy to be "stuck with" (Miggy, Abreu, AGone). Then there are a bunch of kids who I can't name because I am not a paid scout who may get into the convo as well (Bird, Shaw?). Next you have the guys who can be picked up for next to free at the end of the FA period on 1-year contracts (historically - Huff, Larouch(sp?)).

If Belt played in Milwaukee, Cincy, Baltimore, New York, practically ANYWHERE else, Belt would be in the conversation as a top-15 batter in the game! He was a great hitter last year no matter what team he was on. I don't understand why you keep bringing up players from the steroid era to justify today's game, the game is totally different this era. We have a top-5 1st baseman in baseball, I don't get how that's not good enough. Who cares if he doesn't hit as many homeruns as the other guys, there are many other ways to be a productive hitter. I'm not sure why you assume other guys can preform okay when we've seen so many other hitters crash and burn in this ballpark. His game works in our park. This isn't traditional baseball, we have 2nd baseman hitting 40 homers, CFers with OPS's over .900, LFers hitting 9 homers, stealing 50 bases, 5'-9" RFers, relievers getting paid $70M contracts (watch-Jansen, Chapman).

 

[SFGRTB]

jmo on belt.

i was never in favor of giving him a long term high priced contract for all the reasons mentioned, but the giants did this on the back of some other questionable contracts (cain for example). given they did that, i have to assume they are all in on belt. i love his defense, and infield defense is a hall mark of the giants, but his approach at the plate is pathetic. when's he cold, and i'd say its now over 1/2 of the time, you might as well sit him and put buster at 1st to save what's left of his legs/power.

i assume belt will be on the roster for the foreseeable future. he appears to me to be headstrong/stubborn. i know a few years ago the giants tried and tried to get him to narrow his stance and re-position himself in the box. finally he did and had great results. but then he reverted to his old ways and b.a. fell off the map. he's not likely to change at this point in his career with the huge contract he received. and no one will pick up that contract

if it was up to me i'd hire bonds as his personal hitting coach in spring training and issue barry a cattle prod. he's stand in back of brandon and every time he'd position himself in the box incorrectly - zap!. everytime he'd take an inside strike.. zap! everytime he takes that stupid uppercut popup swing.. zap! afters years of watching the guy, i think that's the only way to get through to him.

he's a numer 6 hitter even when on, when cold his place in on the bench or perhaps ninth...

now... how do we restructure the outfield and 3rd base, realistically that's where we'll see offensive and defensive changes - not at 1st

His approach is pathetic? You can't have a pathetic approach and have a .394 OBP. Cold HALF the time? Dude had one bad month, July, where he had a .714 OPS. Outside of July, Belt had a .284/.396/.501 line, an .897 OPS.

He is not going anywhere though, you are right on that.

 

[LHG]

Okay, let's say Belt is gone. Who replaces that WAR in the lineup?

 

[SFGRTB]

sorry.. haven't kept up with the threads. but i disagree on pagan. granted he seemed at times in the 2nd half to be the only one who gave a crap, but his defense is very much on the downslope. i believe its a contact year and i doubt he'll settle for a 1 or 2 year deal. i don't want to see him in 2yrs, much less anything longer than that.

span is not a leadoff hitter at this point in his career. his base running left much to be desired. mark my words, both he and pagan (and pence) will spend as much time on the d/l as on the field next year.

pence is aging as well, i'd rather see the giants get value for him while they can (i think he has 2 more years and i believe this is year 2 of span's 2 year deal). pence looked horrible at the plate ever since coming back from his hammy surgery. maybe he'll get back to the pence of old, maybe he won't. if the giants cannot get some power in the line up, having pence punch-and-judy in '17 won't result in a playoff berth. at this point i'd roll the dice on the whole outfield, maybe keep span for another year unless they could get some value for him. blanco is ready to go. i'm fine with gorkys as a back up.

i love pence, pagan, and blanco (i was there for his catch to preserve cain's perfecto), but i'd rather see contracts cut short and get some youth in we can build on than watch further decline of players who will be stretched to be productive and healthy....

now about arroyo....

No one is taking Pence, unless we get a bad contract/broken player in return. He's here, and we basically just have to hope he can play 120 games, and we have good backups. Here's the thing on Pence, he's ALWAYS look horrible at the plate. He puts up good numbers, but because he's a great mistake hitter, and he can hit the ball a long way. He was always athletic to mask his deficiencies. He can't necessarily do that anymore, unfortunately.

Span has 2 more years left, and a team option I believe. I'm not sure what to think of him, but he was pretty much a 4th OFer production-wise last year. We probably can't expect much from him, but he's gonna be out there.

 

[stanford the manford]

No one is taking Pence, unless we get a bad contract/broken player in return. He's here, and we basically just have to hope he can play 120 games, and we have good backups. Here's the thing on Pence, he's ALWAYS look horrible at the plate. He puts up good numbers, but because he's a great mistake hitter, and he can hit the ball a long way. He was always athletic to mask his deficiencies. He can't necessarily do that anymore, unfortunately.

Span has 2 more years left, and a team option I believe. I'm not sure what to think of him, but he was pretty much a 4th OFer production-wise last year. We probably can't expect much from him, but he's gonna be out there.

on belt i agree that he's not going anywhere. when he's cold, might as well sit him down for a month until he warms up.

you are right on span, 2 more years. hopefully he'll remain productive. he works pitchers as well as anyone and that is valuable either as an everyday player or pinch hitter.

 

[SFGRTB]

on belt i agree that he's not going anywhere. when he's cold, might as well sit him down for a month until he warms up.

you are right on span, 2 more years. hopefully he'll remain productive. he works pitchers as well as anyone and that is valuable either as an everyday player or pinch hitter.

I honestly can't tell if you are trolling me right here or not.

 

[stanford the manford]

I honestly can't tell if you are trolling me right here or not.

honestly i'm not.. apologies if it seems so

 

[calsnowskier]

sorry.. haven't kept up with the threads. but i disagree on pagan. granted he seemed at times in the 2nd half to be the only one who gave a crap, but his defense is very much on the downslope. i believe its a contact year and i doubt he'll settle for a 1 or 2 year deal. i don't want to see him in 2yrs, much less anything longer than that.

span is not a leadoff hitter at this point in his career. his base running left much to be desired. mark my words, both he and pagan (and pence) will spend as much time on the d/l as on the field next year.

pence is aging as well, i'd rather see the giants get value for him while they can (i think he has 2 more years and i believe this is year 2 of span's 2 year deal). pence looked horrible at the plate ever since coming back from his hammy surgery. maybe he'll get back to the pence of old, maybe he won't. if the giants cannot get some power in the line up, having pence punch-and-judy in '17 won't result in a playoff berth. at this point i'd roll the dice on the whole outfield, maybe keep span for another year unless they could get some value for him. blanco is ready to go. i'm fine with gorkys as a back up.

i love pence, pagan, and blanco (i was there for his catch to preserve cain's perfecto), but i'd rather see contracts cut short and get some youth in we can build on than watch further decline of players who will be stretched to be productive and healthy....

now about arroyo....

I was not attacking, just confirming that that is not a foreign concept on this board.

Pagan's defense is also a point of discussion here. And his "glass jaw".

Pence, as SFRTB pointed out, likely isnt going anywhere. But I think that is equally because he has a lot of value here as well because other teams dont want to pay for his injuries and declining production. His personality is very important to the locker room. I think you need a complete goofball to counter the no-nonsense business personalities of Bum and Posey. And I dont think that Pence would be able to take that locker room presence with him to another team. He has earned the right to have that presence here because of the success he has had here. I think he may end up being a distraction elsewhere.

I agree 100% that Pence, Pagan and Blanco are all VERY good Giants in the end. Blanco, in particular, is one of my favorites because he was a dumpster dive and has performed as one of the best #4 OFers on all of baseball for almost his entire stretch as a Giant. But nothing lasts forever, and both parties, I think, need to move on.

 

[stanford the manford]

I was not attacking, just confirming that that is not a foreign concept on this board.

Pagan's defense is also a point of discussion here. And his "glass jaw".

Pence, as SFRTB pointed out, likely isnt going anywhere. But I think that is equally because he has a lot of value here as well because other teams dont want to pay for his injuries and declining production. His personality is very important to the locker room. I think you need a complete goofball to counter the no-nonsense business personalities of Bum and Posey. And I dont think that Pence would be able to take that locker room presence with him to another team. He has earned the right to have that presence here because of the success he has had here. I think he may end up being a distraction elsewhere.

I agree 100% that Pence, Pagan and Blanco are all VERY good Giants in the end. Blanco, in particular, is one of my favorites because he was a dumpster dive and has performed as one of the best #4 OFers on all of baseball for almost his entire stretch as a Giant. But nothing lasts forever, and both parties, I think, need to move on.

i just don't want us to have the same discussion about pence, pagan, blanco, and span next year - and the year after that. at some point the giants need to get younger and i'd prefer it started now. my intent probably got lost in the verbiage, but from my standpoint as a fan they'd all be on the table (span included) if some young talent (either home grown or acquired) could be added.

i love all em all, but if their contracts make them not desirable on the trade market that just tells me they are now bad contracts. that's why i would not like to see a 3+ year deal to pagan

jmo / no troll

 

[calsnowskier]

The Giants of the past have been willing to let players walk after non-championship years, though. So I think it is safe to expect all of our pending FAs to walk. MAYBE late in the FA market, Romo, Casilla (very doubtful) or Pagan may be brought back, but I just dont see any of our FAs returning.

As for kids ready to step up, we really dont have much. Osich, Okert, Blach and McParker are all guys who have been to the bigs and will continue to shuttle (not Parker, as he is out of options). I think that Stratton, Blackburn, Beede, Arroyo, Rogers and Slater are all guys who will start that process this year, with Arroya, Slater and Beede all having the best shots at sticking.

 

[calsnowskier]

I missed this tidbit from yesterday, but apparently Kontos will, in fact, be tendered.