2016/2017 Off-Season Thread

[SFGRTB]

Looking further at these ten:

Jose Bautista - 36 year old coming off down season, posting worst numbers since 2009. Still good numbers (.818 OPS) but he may need to go to an AL team where he can DH more.
Rajai Davis - Another 36 year old who doesn't start full time. His on base is very poor for a leadoff hitter.
Ian Desmond - 31 year old converted shortstop who posted best numbers in three years (.782 OPS) with Texas. His offense would be good for a shortstop. Its pretty average for an outfielder and there's a good chance it will drop if in SF.
Dexter Fowler - 31 year old outfielder has put decent to good numbers playing at offensive home parks (Colorado, Houston, Cubs). Had a great year in 2016 but his previous three seasons yell "caution!"
Carlos Gomez - Another 31 year old, but this one is coming off a disastrous 2016, salvaged by a late season surge with Texas. If not for that late surge, his numbers would have declined for the 3rd year in a row.
Angel Pagan - I think we are all familiar with him.
Colby Ramsus - 30 year old who had an awful 2016. Hasn't posted good offensive numbers since 2013, and has regressed in two years with Houston.
Mark Trumbo - 31 year old who should probably stay in the AL to DH. Don't know if he has improved much defensively but I remember hearing about his "adventures" in the outfield when he was with Anaheim. Had a great offensive 2016 after three supbar seasons before that.
Jay Bruce - 30 year old who only brings pop. Career on base hovers around .318. His 2016 slash was .250/.309/.506. Compare to Williamson - .223/.311/.411 and Parker - .236/.358/.394 and keep in mind that 2016 was Bruce's best year in 4 years.
Curtis Granderson - 36 year old who had a decent year. Probably best option of the group. Cost may be too much and his numbers may not be any better than Parker's.

One guy we keep forgetting is Michael Saunders. He'd probably be my first choice out of all these options. And he might not even cost an arm and a leg.

 

[SFGRTB]

Bobby Evans said on KNBR today that he's comfortable with MacParker (wish he said it like that) in LF going into next season. Same thing he echo'd in his end of season press conference.

 

[LHG]

One guy we keep forgetting is Michael Saunders. He'd probably be my first choice out of all these options. And he might not even cost an arm and a leg.

I think the main reason I've left him off the list is his injury history. The guy can barely stay healthy. This year was his best in terms of games played - at 140. He's topped 100 games only 4 of his 8 big league seasons. Now that, coupled with his huge 2nd half slide (what's with all these outfielders going into their free agency with large slumps?), may mean, like you said, a reasonable cost but I don't feel comfortable signing him to a multi year deal. Might as well bring back Pagan. And with this market, it may be all too easy for some team to sign him for 3 years.

 

[LHG]

And then there's this:

 

[msgkings322]

That's a conversion rate of $8.8MM/WAR. I not read anything anywhere using that high a rate.

I'ts usually in the 6.0 range

Well now you have. That's kind of the point of the article, as contracts rise the $/WAR rises too. It's kind of tautological.

 

[SFGRTB]

And then there's this:

I said I could be swayed on Fowler.... that's not gonna do it.

 

[LHG]

I said I could be swayed on Fowler.... that's not gonna do it.

Its still swaying you . . . further away from liking the idea.

 

[calsnowskier]

While it is possible, of course, that sign Fowler, I just don't see it. Another Pagan/Span is not what we need in the OF. Go hog-wild of the bully, or use the discretionary money to buy a bad contract while taking a young stud who is inexpensive or buy an over-paid reliever (Fitz had an interesting idea of focusing on a Frazier/K-Rod package).

 

[LHG]

While it is possible, of course, that sign Fowler, I just don't see it. Another Pagan/Span is not what we need in the OF. Go hog-wild of the bully, or use the discretionary money to buy a bad contract while taking a young stud who is inexpensive or buy an over-paid reliever (Fitz had an interesting idea of focusing on a Frazier/K-Rod package).

Will the Giants go over the luxury tax threshold for 2017 ($195,000,000)? Currently, they are committed to $146,711,110 to 10 players (Cueto, Posey, Cain, Samardzija, Pence, Bumgarner, Span, Crawford, Belt & Moore).

Estimating that Nunez gets about 3 million, Smith gets 2.5 million, Kontos gets 2 million, Gillaspie gets 1.5 million and Gearrin gets 1 million (assuming he's non-tendered) in arbitration, that puts the 2017 commitment to $156,711,110 to 15 players.

Further assuming that Panik, Strickland, Adrianza, Osich, Brown and Law get renewed around the same amount as 2016, that puts the team salary closer to $160 million for 21 players.

So what will it cost to acquire a closer (assuming this is the main target for the FO)? If the Giants decide to trade for K-Rod, then they increase the team salary to $166 million.

If they also pick up Frazier, then they need to figure out if they take him to arbitration or try to negotiate a contract. Arbitration will probably put him somewhere in the $12 to $15 million range. That would put the team at $181 million. That means they would need to fix left field from within or get some low priced free agent outfielder.

If the Giants go the free agent market for a closer, they are looking at paying someone between $13 to $20 million for 2017 (my wild guess). That means, at a minimum, they would be looking at $173 committed to 22 players. I doubt they sign a top closer from the market and pick up Fowler. I only see Fowler being signed if they trade for a fairly cheap closer (such as K-Rod) and not Frazier as well.

 

[VASFfan]

While it is possible, of course, that sign Fowler, I just don't see it. Another Pagan/Span is not what we need in the OF. Go hog-wild of the bully, or use the discretionary money to buy a bad contract while taking a young stud who is inexpensive or buy an over-paid reliever (Fitz had an interesting idea of focusing on a Frazier/K-Rod package).

Just got back from lunch and reading the local rag (the Washington Post). Here's a thought, and hear me out: How about Ben Revere? He had a horrible year last year, likely because of an injury he suffered on opening day that persisted thru the year. As a result, the Nats are likely to non-tender him, esp. if they acquire McCutcheon. But he's been a solid offensive player in the years before and at least adequate in the OF, and given the year he had he could probably be had for relatively cheap, at least as a 1 year rental. IF he returns to historical norms for him, he could be a really good acquisition. Of course, the risk would be that last season wasn't the injury but he just well and truly sucked. So signing him would not be without risk, so if he continues to head south then the Giants probably just make their situation worse.

 

[LHG]

Just got back from lunch and reading the local rag (the Washington Post). Here's a thought, and hear me out: How about Ben Revere? He had a horrible year last year, likely because of an injury he suffered on opening day that persisted thru the year. As a result, the Nats are likely to non-tender him, esp. if they acquire McCutcheon. But he's been a solid offensive player in the years before and at least adequate in the OF, and given the year he had he could probably be had for relatively cheap, at least as a 1 year rental. IF he returns to historical norms for him, he could be a really good acquisition. Of course, the risk would be that last season wasn't the injury but he just well and truly sucked. So signing him would not be without risk, so if he continues to head south then the Giants probably just make their situation worse.

Sorry, but he is a poor man's Denard Span. His career slash is .285/.320/.342. 2015 was his best season, and the only year he posted an OPS north of .700. Jarrett Parker produced a better slash (minus the batting average) this year than Revere has in his career. Hernandez could probably post similar numbers than Revere would in SF. Revere has always been way overrated.

 

[Stokes1931]

One guy we keep forgetting is Michael Saunders. He'd probably be my first choice out of all these options. And he might not even cost an arm and a leg.

Oh, man, I need to lay off the coffee. As I scanned the posts, I swore that I read "Michael Tucker" in your post, and just about had a nervous breakdown. (shudder) Serves me right for not reading carefully.

 

[VASFfan]

Sorry, but he is a poor man's Denard Span. His career slash is .285/.320/.342. 2015 was his best season, and the only year he posted an OPS north of .700. Jarrett Parker produced a better slash (minus the batting average) this year than Revere has in his career. Hernandez could probably post similar numbers than Revere would in SF. Revere has always been way overrated.

But what do you REALLY think?

 

[LHG]

But what do you REALLY think?

Sorry, I've just never understood the love on him as a starting outfielder. Doesn't rank really high defensive and his offensive numbers, in my opinion, leave a lot to be desired. He has speed but doesn't get on base enough (except for 2015) to justify starting him. He strikes me as a Gregor Blanco replacement and I think we already have that in Gorkys Hernandez.

 

[LHG]

Oh, man, I need to lay off the coffee. As I scanned the posts, I swore that I read "Michael Tucker" in your post, and just about had a nervous breakdown. (shudder) Serves me right for not reading carefully.

Well, he wouldn't cost an arm and a leg . . .

 

[SFGRTB]

How the International Signing rules changed in the new CBA. Not great for the Giants, but at the same time the Dodgers as well. Screwed too are international free agents.

New MLB International Signing Rules | BaseballAmerica.com

 

[calsnowskier]

How the International Signing rules changed in the new CBA. Not great for the Giants, but at the same time the Dodgers as well. Screwed too are international free agents.

New MLB International Signing Rules | BaseballAmerica.com

Seeing as the Giants really have not benefited that much from the international market while the dogs have used it as a constant source of talent, I am ok with the trade off.

 

[SFGRTB]

Seeing as the Giants really have not benefited that much from the international market while the dogs have used it as a constant source of talent, I am ok with the trade off.

Yeah and it doesn't stop us from signing players at all either, just not the high-profile ones which have yet to pan out anyway.

 

[tzill]

Well now you have. That's kind of the point of the article, as contracts rise the $/WAR rises too. It's kind of tautological.

That, or it's an overpay. I see your point though.

If the market is wiling to pay 8M/WAR then I guess that's what WAR is worth.

 

[SFGRTB]

Just got back from lunch and reading the local rag (the Washington Post). Here's a thought, and hear me out: How about Ben Revere? He had a horrible year last year, likely because of an injury he suffered on opening day that persisted thru the year. As a result, the Nats are likely to non-tender him, esp. if they acquire McCutcheon. But he's been a solid offensive player in the years before and at least adequate in the OF, and given the year he had he could probably be had for relatively cheap, at least as a 1 year rental. IF he returns to historical norms for him, he could be a really good acquisition. Of course, the risk would be that last season wasn't the injury but he just well and truly sucked. So signing him would not be without risk, so if he continues to head south then the Giants probably just make their situation worse.

Well, you were right about him being non-tendered. But I too wouldn't be all that excited for him.

Other big names to be non-tendered:

Chris Carter. Someone should sign him instead of Trumbo and save $100M for similar production.

Tyson Ross. Pretty surprised the Pads cut him loose without trying to get anything out of him. I have a feeling he'll go back to the A's, or some similarly cruddy team and get traded this July.

Welington Castillo. Feel like he killed us this year. For a catcher, he had a very respectable batting line, and he's always been a good defender. This one is questionable.

Ruby De La Rosa. He's probably going to have TJ, so I expect him to re-sign with the D-Backs.