2016/2017 Off-Season Thread

[LHG]

Cespedes back to the Mets. 4 years, $110M.

Some Giants fans are mad about this, but I don't think there was ever a big possibility of him leaving New York.

I'd say the best of the outfield free agent class is now: Jose Bautista, Rajai Davis, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus and Mark Trumbo. I hope the Giants stay internal for left field in 2017. Trade for someone mid-season if both Williamson and Parker flop royally.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'd say the best of the outfield free agent class is now: Jose Bautista, Rajai Davis, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus and Mark Trumbo. I hope the Giants stay internal for left field in 2017. Trade for someone mid-season if both Williamson and Parker flop royally.

I agree, except that Slater and Duggar may be ready for look-sees as well if McParker falls.

 

[tzill]

Cespedes back to the Mets. 4 years, $110M.

Some Giants fans are mad about this, but I don't think there was ever a big possibility of him leaving New York.

It's an overpay. He's no longer a 4.5 WAR player.

 

[stanford the manford]

Cespedes back to the Mets. 4 years, $110M.

Some Giants fans are mad about this, but I don't think there was ever a big possibility of him leaving New York.

just saw this on tv... never really thought it was a possibility, but really would have liked to see his rh power at att day in and day out....

 

[LHG]

With Cespedes re-signed with the Mets, rumors are starting to fly about either Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson being traded, with one recipient being listed the Giants. No thank you to either.

 

[SFGRTB]

With Cespedes re-signed with the Mets, rumors are starting to fly about either Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson being traded, with one recipient being listed the Giants. No thank you to either.

Yeah idk if I'd want either dude. They're both on 1-year deals though. If they don't cost much I could be okay with it.

 

[LHG]

Yeah idk if I'd want either dude. They're both on 1-year deals though. If they don't cost much I could be okay with it.

The rumor is that the Mets want prospects back for either since they are set just about everywhere except maybe at catcher and relief pitching. Not sure what type of prospects would be needed to get either one of them. I don't think its worth it. Both have big gaping holes in their game, both will be free agents after 2017 and both will cost something in the farm. I don't see how either would be worth the cost.

 

[SFGRTB]

I'd say the best of the outfield free agent class is now: Jose Bautista, Rajai Davis, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus and Mark Trumbo. I hope the Giants stay internal for left field in 2017. Trade for someone mid-season if both Williamson and Parker flop royally.

No, pass, hard pass, maybe, maybe, no, maybe, no.

None of these guys inspire me much. Of this group, I'd probably rather go with MacParker.

 

[SFGRTB]

The rumor is that the Mets want prospects back for either since they are set just about everywhere except maybe at catcher and relief pitching. Not sure what type of prospects would be needed to get either one of them. I don't think its worth it. Both have big gaping holes in their game, both will be free agents after 2017 and both will cost something in the farm. I don't see how either would be worth the cost.

Well they don't have all that much leverage if other teams wait them out. But agreed, if they demand something like Arroyo then GTFO

 

[LHG]

I'd say the best of the outfield free agent class is now: Jose Bautista, Rajai Davis, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gomez, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus and Mark Trumbo. I hope the Giants stay internal for left field in 2017. Trade for someone mid-season if both Williamson and Parker flop royally.

No, pass, hard pass, maybe, maybe, no, maybe, no.

None of these guys inspire me much. Of this group, I'd probably rather go with MacParker.

Looking further at these ten:

Jose Bautista - 36 year old coming off down season, posting worst numbers since 2009. Still good numbers (.818 OPS) but he may need to go to an AL team where he can DH more.
Rajai Davis - Another 36 year old who doesn't start full time. His on base is very poor for a leadoff hitter.
Ian Desmond - 31 year old converted shortstop who posted best numbers in three years (.782 OPS) with Texas. His offense would be good for a shortstop. Its pretty average for an outfielder and there's a good chance it will drop if in SF.
Dexter Fowler - 31 year old outfielder has put decent to good numbers playing at offensive home parks (Colorado, Houston, Cubs). Had a great year in 2016 but his previous three seasons yell "caution!"
Carlos Gomez - Another 31 year old, but this one is coming off a disastrous 2016, salvaged by a late season surge with Texas. If not for that late surge, his numbers would have declined for the 3rd year in a row.
Angel Pagan - I think we are all familiar with him.
Colby Ramsus - 30 year old who had an awful 2016. Hasn't posted good offensive numbers since 2013, and has regressed in two years with Houston.
Mark Trumbo - 31 year old who should probably stay in the AL to DH. Don't know if he has improved much defensively but I remember hearing about his "adventures" in the outfield when he was with Anaheim. Had a great offensive 2016 after three supbar seasons before that.
Jay Bruce - 30 year old who only brings pop. Career on base hovers around .318. His 2016 slash was .250/.309/.506. Compare to Williamson - .223/.311/.411 and Parker - .236/.358/.394 and keep in mind that 2016 was Bruce's best year in 4 years.
Curtis Granderson - 36 year old who had a decent year. Probably best option of the group. Cost may be too much and his numbers may not be any better than Parker's.

 

[SFGRTB]

Looking further at these ten:

Jose Bautista - 36 year old coming off down season, posting worst numbers since 2009. Still good numbers (.818 OPS) but he may need to go to an AL team where he can DH more.
Rajai Davis - Another 36 year old who doesn't start full time. His on base is very poor for a leadoff hitter.
Ian Desmond - 31 year old converted shortstop who posted best numbers in three years (.782 OPS) with Texas. His offense would be good for a shortstop. Its pretty average for an outfielder and there's a good chance it will drop if in SF.
Dexter Fowler - 31 year old outfielder has put decent to good numbers playing at offensive home parks (Colorado, Houston, Cubs). Had a great year in 2016 but his previous three seasons yell "caution!"
Carlos Gomez - Another 31 year old, but this one is coming off a disastrous 2016, salvaged by a late season surge with Texas. If not for that late surge, his numbers would have declined for the 3rd year in a row.
Angel Pagan - I think we are all familiar with him.
Colby Ramsus - 30 year old who had an awful 2016. Hasn't posted good offensive numbers since 2013, and has regressed in two years with Houston.
Mark Trumbo - 31 year old who should probably stay in the AL to DH. Don't know if he has improved much defensively but I remember hearing about his "adventures" in the outfield when he was with Anaheim. Had a great offensive 2016 after three supbar seasons before that.
Jay Bruce - 30 year old who only brings pop. Career on base hovers around .318. His 2016 slash was .250/.309/.506. Compare to Williamson - .223/.311/.411 and Parker - .236/.358/.394 and keep in mind that 2016 was Bruce's best year in 4 years.
Curtis Granderson - 36 year old who had a decent year. Probably best option of the group. Cost may be too much and his numbers may not be any better than Parker's.

To add:

Davis is going to get over-paid after a productive post season.

Desmond was atrocious the second half, but his first half and overall numbers will get him over-paid and I believe he'll cost a pick too.

Fowler too was powered by a strong first half and and deep lineup, being able to bat in front of the NL MVP. His defense has been up and down. Likely in line for a big contract, but I could be swayed.

Gomez has had issues with the Giants in the past. I don't think his second half will be enough to get a huge contract, so he could be a cheap trial. He'll probably look elsewhere.

Rasmus is a good defender, but terrible with the bat. Should be extremely cheap.

 

[msgkings322]

It's an overpay. He's no longer a 4.5 WAR player.

Apparently as contracts keep increasing, the $/WAR does too. From 538:

• Significant Digit: 12.5 wins above replacement, the amount of production Cespedes will need to offer over the next four years of his contract to justify $110 million. The value of a win above replacement has skyrocketed, and Cespedes would have to average about 3.1 WAR per year.

 

[SFGRTB]

So the new CBA has been agreed upon. 5-years. Stuff is still fresh, but some highlights:

Active rosters will stay at 25 April-August and 40 in September.

Luxury Tax line will increase from $189M to $195M next year, $197M after that, $206M after that, $208M after that, then increase to $210M by the end of the CBA.

A 1st round pick will no longer be lost if a player is signed who declined a Qualifying Offer. This is where it gets confusing

• Organizations over the Luxury Tax line stand to lose a 2nd and 5th round draft pick for signing a player who declined a QO. Teams under the tax line lose a 3rd rounder
• Also, the teams that lose the player who declined a QO will only receive compensation if the player signs for more than $50M, and the compensation will be determined by the market size of said losing team. I'm not sure how that last point interacts with the rest.
• Players can only be extended a qualifying offer once (not sure if this retroactively stands).
• These changes will com into effect NEXT OFFSEASON

No International draft

Beginning in 2018, the season will start a few days earlier, to allow for more off days.

 

[calsnowskier]

I like the idea of compensation for QO FAs, because it tends to keep players with their original teams. I like consistency, so this is a good thing in my mind. Losing (essentially) the QO compensation will encourage more team-jumping.

 

[tzill]

Apparently as contracts keep increasing, the $/WAR does too. From 538:

• Significant Digit: 12.5 wins above replacement, the amount of production Cespedes will need to offer over the next four years of his contract to justify $110 million. The value of a win above replacement has skyrocketed, and Cespedes would have to average about 3.1 WAR per year.

That's a conversion rate of $8.8MM/WAR. I not read anything anywhere using that high a rate.

I'ts usually in the 6.0 range

 

[SFGRTB]

So the new CBA has been agreed upon. 5-years. Stuff is still fresh, but some highlights:

Active rosters will stay at 25 April-August and 40 in September.

Luxury Tax line will increase from $189M to $195M next year, $197M after that, $206M after that, $208M after that, then increase to $210M by the end of the CBA.

A 1st round pick will no longer be lost if a player is signed who declined a Qualifying Offer. This is where it gets confusing

• Organizations over the Luxury Tax line stand to lose a 2nd and 5th round draft pick for signing a player who declined a QO. Teams under the tax line lose a 3rd rounder
• Also, the teams that lose the player who declined a QO will only receive compensation if the player signs for more than $50M, and the compensation will be determined by the market size of said losing team. I'm not sure how that last point interacts with the rest.
• Players can only be extended a qualifying offer once (not sure if this retroactively stands).
• These changes will com into effect NEXT OFFSEASON

No International draft

Beginning in 2018, the season will start a few days earlier, to allow for more off days.

Also:

The All-Star game no longer determines home-field advantage. It's now based on record.

The 15-day DL is now the 10-day DL

Players new to MLB are banned from smokeless tobacco. Current players will be "grandfathered" in.

 

[SFGRTB]

I like the idea of compensation for QO FAs, because it tends to keep players with their original teams. I like consistency, so this is a good thing in my mind. Losing (essentially) the QO compensation will encourage more team-jumping.

There is still quite a bit to lose for teams. It actually sounds pretty harsh for teams like the Giants. Revenue sharing teams give up their 2nd and 5th picks (not rounds, 2nd and 5th highest) as well as $1M in the international pool, which has already been decreased to $4.75M in the new CBA (Lucius Fox, for example, signed for $6.5M).

 

[calsnowskier]

Not sure I like the flat-cap on international am-signings. Why not use a hybrid cap/draft system?

Basically, use the existing draft pool rules, but without an actual draft. A bad team will have a higher pool amount than a good team. If a team wants to dump their entire pool on a single player, so be it. It the want to instead invest on 20 100K guys, so be it. I think it is important, though, that the first $X of each bonus does not count towards the pool, though. This would allow the lower-end kids still be able to play.

 

[LHG]

Not sure I like the flat-cap on international am-signings. Why not use a hybrid cap/draft system?

Basically, use the existing draft pool rules, but without an actual draft. A bad team will have a higher pool amount than a good team. If a team wants to dump their entire pool on a single player, so be it. It the want to instead invest on 20 100K guys, so be it. I think it is important, though, that the first $X of each bonus does not count towards the pool, though. This would allow the lower-end kids still be able to play.

Wasn't this one of the most contentious pieces of the CBA? Considering the two sides were ready to go to war (not WAR, tzil) over it, I'm not surprised this would be a jumbled mess.

 

[LHG]

Also:

The All-Star game no longer determines home-field advantage. It's now based on record.

The 15-day DL is now the 10-day DL

Players new to MLB are banned from smokeless tobacco. Current players will be "grandfathered" in.

Interesting on the DL change. I would think that means more players go on the DL as teams tried to keep guys off because of the 15 day lay off time.

I believe that the smokeless tobacco rule also enforces city ordinances as part of the rule. So even current players not otherwise covered on the ban cannot use it in places like Washington, DC, which just banned it within the city.