2015 Pirates

[Darkstone42]

I think it is time to move on from Martin and focus on other pieces. Cervelli and Stewart will be fine for a year and if they don't work out offensively, at least they provide solid defense. They are both in arby years so no need to worry about any long-term plans with them.

Time to focus on SP. My suggestion is Cole Hamels. The Phillies have a terrible mlb team (due largely to bad contracts and aging vets) and a bad minor league system. However, I don't think Hamels is one of their bad contracts, even at $24M/yr for the next 4 years.

Pirates offense is good (ranked 3-10 in most categories) and should only get better as players are in their prime (McCutchen, Walker) or hitting their prime (Marte, Harrison, Mercer). The Pirates offense was just as good (if not better) as the other playoff teams, however their SP was no where near as dominant.

Send the Phillies a Josh Bell and Hanson/Kingham type package and pay Hamels all the money he is owed.
Not only would it be great as a boost to the staff, he could also be a great teacher to Cole, Taillon, Glasnow, Kingham?. etc.

That is one piece and the other piece should be a reclamation type project starting pitcher (Hellickson/McCarthy?)

Staff becomes Hamels (24M), Cole (500K), Hellickson/McCarthy? (7M), Morton (8M), Worley (2.5M)
Lineup: Harrison (2.5M), Mercer (500K), McCutchen (10M), Walker (8.5M), Marte (1M) Alvarez (5.5M), Snider (2M), Cervelli (1.5M)
BP: Melancon (4M), Watson (2M), Hughes (1M), Holdzkom (500K), Locke (500K), Cumpton (500K), Pimentel (500K)
Bench: Stewart (1.5M), Lambo (500K), Tabata (4M), UTIL (2M), UTIL (1M)

That's about a 91.5M Payroll which is where the Pirates should be. Any of the 500K RP could be switched out for other 500K pitchers. I went with the known names for now.

The Giants SP had a WAR of 9.1 in 2014 and the Cardinals had a SP WAR of 11.3. Pirates SP had a WAR of 5.8. Hamels alone had a 6.6 WAR last year while Volquez (2.5 WAR) and Liriano (1.5 WAR) would cost about the same as Hamels ($8M? Volquez and $16M? Liriano) and still not provide an equal WAR. Dominant starting pitching is key in baseball today.

The offense is good enough and should only get better. I think Snider has figured something out and Polanco is right there also. Pedro will be fine at first. Time to play with the big boys and make a run at a legitimate, dominant number one starter and Cole Hamels fits the bill plus is locked up for 4 more years with a reasonable, almost a bargain (The FO likes bargains!) contract that fits perfectly with the current team and where they are going as McCutchen is locked up for 4 more years as well. That 4 year window is what the FO needs to focus on as there are no guarantees in the minors.

I like going after Hamels, and I think we should do it, but I'm not so sure Bell would be on the table for me, especially since there's a good shot he ends up on the Major League roster as our everyday 1B in 2015. I probably wouldn't bring back Alvarez, either, and go with Lambo until Bell is ready.

I also don't think McCarthy is really a reclamation type target. I wouldn't mind targeting him, but I think he's going to get more than you think he is.

If we can bring back Liriano, though, at the cost of just money and no prospects, I think that's the way we should go.

 

[Darkstone42]

Pirates Acquire Francisco Cervelli For Justin Wilson ? MLB Trade Rumors

I think of this as more of insurance but in all honesty i see this as Martin is all but gone.

.350 obp .380 slugging isnt bad for a catcher

Martin is gone, we just cant compete with the big markets for free agents.

Very interesting deal, obviously Martin isn't going to be back. Cervelli is ok, but has never been a primary starter, but the defense and OBP are there, and he is in his prime.

And I'm weary of trading a lefty who has the pure stuff that Wilson has.

Yeah for what it is worth they needed to do something like this because 4 or 5 years for Martin is way too much.

Now the focus will be on SP.

I like the deal for Cervelli a lot. He's a passable hitter and quite good defensively. He isn't Russell Martin, but he has the tools to be a serviceable #1 Major League catcher for a competitive ballclub. Yeah, it's tough to lose a guy like Wilson, but his control was spotty, he's likely a reliever in the long run, at least on our team, and a starting catcher who can frame and get on base is worth more than a reliever.

Having him also means it's worth it to try to bring back Worley. Worley is a good pitcher when he has an above-average receiver, but he doesn't do it in a way that brings him a lot of dollars. I think we should try to bring him back now that we're sure to have a catcher who can buy strikes.

 

[26 elroy face]

I saw Wilson the other way. Good velocity, but pitches were flat. Great slider, but couldn't get ahead in the count to use it.

 

[sychmd]

wilson was too inconsistent. had trouble with the pressure situations.
don't know much about cervilli, but his numbers seem good and he is very cheap.
hopefully he can stay healthy to at least split the year with stewart.

i live in philly and i am hesitant about hamels, esp with hanson and bell as the offering. they are looking to dump salary and are willing to take 4 B prospects, not people in the top 100 in baseball. if they take back half his salary, then we can give a better prospect. hamels is not an ace. he pitches like one when he has 2 others on the team, but when he is the man, he melts. also, doesn't attack hitters. he has a nibbler mentality. the pirates would need to have him pitch inside more and will he like that.

give lambo a good look at 1B and OF bench spot. still think pedro might fit at 1B as he is a great fielder, inconsistent thrower. should be good on D, and save some runs. then concentrate more on hitting and will return to 250/330/520. most teams have a crappy 1B these days. the days of everyone having a stud at 1b are gone. a bunch of them are DH and another group are fat and oft injured.

keep hanson, not sure if bell is the man or not. needs one more year of higher ball to show us legit 1B potential.

 

[element1286]

Yeah, I agree about Wilson's consistency and the comment about the flat fastballs. Just hard letting go of the pure stuff from the left side.

I don't think Hamels gets traded. Amaro is an idiot, he's asking for elite prospects, and expects any team to assume Hamels entire salary, that isn't happening. Especially not with 4 years left of Hamels deal at market rate. Any team who can afford that deal, can just as easily sign Lester, Shields, Scherzer, etc and not give up a prospect.

 

[element1286]

2015 Free Agent Tracker | FanGraphs Baseball

FWIW, Fangraphs has crowdsourced Martin at 4/56 and Liriano 3/36, both seem reasonable.

 

[Darkstone42]

2015 Free Agent Tracker | FanGraphs Baseball

FWIW, Fangraphs has crowdsourced Martin at 4/56 and Liriano 3/36, both seem reasonable.

I know four years is tough to swallow, but I would do that deal for Martin at the money. His contract would be moveable once Diaz is ready, and we could probably get pretty decent Major League value in that trade if he's still doing alright at that money.

The Liriano deal I would absolutely do.

 

[Darkstone42]

Also off the free agent tracker, I would do the deals for Harang, Morse, Laroche, Anderson, and Santana. Obviously not all of them at once, but if Liriano walks, Santana would be a reasonable target, I think, and Anderson and Harang could be the Volquez-like-but-not-actually-reclamation-projects-because-they-were-both-good-last-year signings. Laroche at 2/20 is tempting, and Morse would be a decent option for the right-hand side of a platoon with Lambo, if not just the everyday first baseman.

 

[thedddd]

I know four years is tough to swallow, but I would do that deal for Martin at the money. His contract would be moveable once Diaz is ready, and we could probably get pretty decent Major League value in that trade if he's still doing alright at that money.

The Liriano deal I would absolutely do.

Yeah I agree those numbers would be great for both. I can see that happening for Liriano more than Martin. Catchers this year will be the huge overpay and he is at the top of the list.

And the timing of the Cervelli deal is perfect because if NH would have waiting until later (after Martin signs) just imagine the asking price then?

 

[thedddd]

If one/or both of Sanchez and/or Davis is still with the team in 2015 then they truly failed again at 1B.

 

[element1286]

I thought the numbers seemed kind of low on the elite players front. Can't see Martin getting only 4, I can see 4 with an option for 5 with a hefty buyout.

Vmart just got 4/68, they had 3/45. So an extra year, and 12% off on salary.

 

[thecrow124]

Very interesting deal, obviously Martin isn't going to be back. Cervelli is ok, but has never been a primary starter, but the defense and OBP are there, and he is in his prime.

And I'm weary of trading a lefty who has the pure stuff that Wilson has.

I agree losing Wilson is less than ideal, but if you can pick up an everyday starter for a reliever, you do it. Realistically, Wilson was going to give us about 70 innings.

 

[element1286]

I agree losing Wilson is less than ideal, but if you can pick up an everyday starter for a reliever, you do it. Realistically, Wilson was going to give us about 70 innings.

Well, I'm extremely skeptical of Cervelli as a viable starter, especially with the injury history. But agreed in theory about trading a reliever for a starter, especially an inconsistent reliever.

 

[26 elroy face]

I haven't checked any stats but Wilson didn't dominate lefties. I was hoping they could package Wilson and a mid level prospect or two for a one rental in Matt Weiters. Baltimore should be listening to offers. Weiters is recovering Tommy John, and will walked after the 2015 season.

 

[Darkstone42]

Pirates Go to the Pitch-Framing Well, Add Francisco Cervelli | FanGraphs Baseball

The numbers seem to suggest Cervelli is ridiculously good at framing, which is nice.

Also an interesting tidbit from the comments about his bat:

"PNC suppresses most hitting, but actually helps RH singles and doubles guys, like Cervelli." Also explains Martin's success with us a bit. Lots of reasons for optimism here, especially (and as long as) we reallocate the Martin money well.

 

[steelparrot]

Stanton and Marlins discussing 300 million dollar deal.

 

[thedddd]

^ Makes you appreciate McCutchen more and more each year.

 

[element1286]

Pirates Go to the Pitch-Framing Well, Add Francisco Cervelli | FanGraphs Baseball

The numbers seem to suggest Cervelli is ridiculously good at framing, which is nice.

Also an interesting tidbit from the comments about his bat:

"PNC suppresses most hitting, but actually helps RH singles and doubles guys, like Cervelli." Also explains Martin's success with us a bit. Lots of reasons for optimism here, especially (and as long as) we reallocate the Martin money well.

Yeah, assuming they aren't Jose Tabata. But if that is the case, which I don't know, they should go after Billy Butler to play first assuming they can get him on a good deal.

 

[element1286]

Looking at Park Factors, singles and doubles by right handers are about the only category that have been above average at PNC consistently.

Guts! | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Darkstone42]

Yeah, assuming they aren't Jose Tabata. But if that is the case, which I don't know, they should go after Billy Butler to play first assuming they can get him on a good deal.

I like Butler, but his dip in walk rate last year is a little alarming, I think. If that was a fluke, I think he'd do well in Pittsburgh. If it isn't, and he simply won't walk as much moving forward, he loses a lot of his value.