2015 Pirates

[Darkstone42]

Melancon is not a closer and he doesn't fit that role. He didn't fit it last year either. He simply gives up way too many hits, doesn't have enough stuff, throws too many pitches over the center of the dish, and relies too heavily on the cutter. Poor Kang last night had the huge bases clearing hit and is a hero until Mr blown save comes in again. They need to quit this closer stuff. You don't need to have one person get the save every time. They should just put the best pitcher for the situation in. It's so simple.

Last year Melancon had a 1.90 ERA, gave up the fewest hits and fewest walks per IP of any reliever on the roster, and only 2 HRs (the fewest by far of any reliever), and had 33 saves in less than a year's work. Yeah, he didn't fit that role last year.

Also, relying "too much" on his cutter is something I remember another closer doing...

 

[steelparrot]

I hope Marte is ok.

 

[Ewa PGH Fan]

I hope Marte is ok.

On MLB Network last night during a recap of the game they said that X-rays were negative and it was just a bruise. They didn't say if he'll miss any games due to the bruise.

 

[GenJac]

The Bucs starting pitching has been a pleasant surprise so far this year. Excellent work!

 

[Darkstone42]

The Matter With Andrew McCutchen | FOX Sports

 

[ramburgh]

If Morton comes back strong this team can win the division. If he doesn't, they better start looking for a strong SP trade candidate sooner rather than later. Maybe a trade for Papelbon would be possible. He is due $13M this year and next. A big number, but doable for a playoff team that needs to find the extra push to advance in the playoffs. If Melancon doesn't regain his velocity then the Pirates need to make a move before he starts costing them games.

 

[ramburgh]

I believe this is the year where the Pirates finally make a big move. Hamels or Tulo or Papelbon or ?

Tulo would make the line-up really strong, albeit it has been proven that pitching wins championships and the Pirates could use help on their staff.

However, the line-up could look really good:
Harrison (R)
Polanco (L)
McCutchen (R)
Tulowitzki (R)
Marte (R)
Walker (B)
Alvarez (L)
Cervelli (R)

Have a rotation with Kang moving in for Walker and Tulowitzki (they both are injury prone) getting 1-2 days off with Harrison moving to second when Walker is out and Kang playing third and then Kang at short when Tulo is out.

 

[thecrow124]

I believe this is the year where the Pirates finally make a big move. Hamels or Tulo or Papelbon or ?

Tulo would make the line-up really strong, albeit it has been proven that pitching wins championships and the Pirates could use help on their staff.

However, the line-up could look really good:
Harrison (R)
Polanco (L)
McCutchen (R)
Tulowitzki (R)
Marte (R)
Walker (B)
Alvarez (L)
Cervelli (R)

Have a rotation with Kang moving in for Walker and Tulowitzki (they both are injury prone) getting 1-2 days off with Harrison moving to second when Walker is out and Kang playing third and then Kang at short when Tulo is out.

They are going to have to start playing a heck of a lot better than they have been playing to justify making any move at all.

 

[dare2be]

I'm done with this lazy, uncaring team. Especially Marte.

 

[thedddd]

That was their 5th loss in extra innings and I don't think they won an extra inning game?

And now 6-9 in one run games.

 

[Darkstone42]

Kang's deal is even better than we thought. 4 years, $11 million, $1 million buyout of the option in 2019. That's probably going to be a steal. He only needs to be a competent bench player for the value to be really good.

A pretty nifty breakdown of Kang's swing.

Breaking Down Jung Ho-Kang | FanGraphs Baseball

Reasons for optimism in there, I think. And if he can approach the numbers at the end of the article (.280 average and 25 homers) at any point in his contract with Pittsburgh, man, big win on that signing.

This deal is looking amazing right now, and Farnsworth appears to once again be proving his mettle analyzing swings and predicting success at the Major League level.

 

[thedddd]

Nick Kingham Undergoes Tommy John Surgery - MLB Trade Rumors

Well that stinks, maybe sometime end of next year we will see him.

 

[Darkstone42]

The projections for the Bucs have risen by the second largest amount since the start of the season (Cole's emergence as an ace, and I presume Jung-ho Kang's emergence as a legitimate hitter who can reasonably handle shortstop probably have a lot to do with that, and Sullivan in the article below does give Cole a "hat tip"), and the Cardinals have suffered the largest drop in projected wins due to losing Wano for the season and Adams for probably a long time.

Which Teams are Most Changed Since Opening Day? | FanGraphs Baseball

For whatever this little exercise is worth. But I love optimism and reasons for it, so, you know, here you go.

 

[ramburgh]

I still think the Phillies can be an ideal trade partner especially if they are willing to to eat some of Hamels salary. Supposedly Boston is/was the frontrunner but they are 22-29 (albeit only 4 games out in the AL East).

A major league package of Alvarez, Mercer and Locke along with some high level minor league talent - Tony Sanchez and Alen Hanson? for Hamels and Papelbon?

Move Walker to first next year with Rodriguez/Hart/Lambo filling in this year. Include Tony Sanchez in that group if he isn't part of the package. Included Tabata with less money coming back to the Pirates if the Phillies take on Tabata's contract. Maybe have the Phillies included Harang?

Alvarez, Mercer, Tabata, Locke, Sanchez, Hanson for Hamels, Papelbon, Harang.

This helps the Phillies restock with immediate major league talent.

Alvarez isn't coming back and the Phillies will have him under control in 2016 for his final arby year and they can decide what they want to do with him. Mercer can take over at short/utility. Tabata could be decent 4th outfielder. Hanson can take over for Utley in the next year or two and Tony Sanchez can split time with Ruiz and Howard. Locke can move into their rotation or be a longman.

Pirates don't have Burnett or Alvarez on the books for 2016 which helps pay Hamels and Papelbon. Melancon will most likely not be back in 2016 either. Maybe include Melancon in the trade and the Phillies would have him under control in 2016 also.

Alvarez, Melancon, Mercer, Tabata, Locke, Sanchez and Hanson. Pirates take on all or close to all of the salary of Hamels ($23.5M, $23,5M, $23.5M, $23.5M, $20M (option), Papelbon ($13M, $13M) and Harang ($5M).

 

[Darkstone42]

We only need one starter, so no need to bring Harang and Hamels both in. I also have no interest in Papelbon. He's good, but he's a terrible personality. I really don't think we need external bullpen help anyway. Melancon's recovering his velocity and is a smart enough pitcher, really, to get by to some extent without it. Watson's a rock. Hughes is fine in his role, Caminero's been largely impressive, Scahill's also been good, and I can't imagine Bastardo will continue to struggle as he has.

If we go after Hamels, Hanson would almost certainly go back, and I imagine we would include Locke for this year, but the Phillies will want someone on the order of Bell/Meadows/Glasnow/Taillon back in addition to Hanson, and maybe two of them. They're still asking for the moon, after all, and the front-end SP trade market is pretty thin after Hamels.

Harang, though, is very gettable, and would slot in nicely, I think. With Cole emerging as an ace, and Liriano being what he is, just pushing Locke out of the 5th spot with someone capable and consistent like Harang would probably be enough. We don't need an ace-caliber pitcher. Send back Locke or Worley and a B-level prospect and call it a day. That should be enough, and we have the depth in the farm system to deal with it.

Obviously, if the Phillies are willing to accept a deal for Hamels centering on Hanson, we should jump at it, though, especially if they eat some of that contract. But there's no reason to give up any of Glasnow, Taillon, Bell, or Meadows. Max Moroff has been pretty outstanding this year and could cover the loss of Hanson reasonably well, especially if we retain Walker at 2B for another year. But there's no replacing the top four guys.

With Hamels, though, and without giving up Glasnow or Taillon (a guy can dream, right?), we'd have a pretty filthy rotation for the next few years. This year would be Cole, Hamels, Burnett, Liriano (I know Hurdle likes to split up his lefties), Morton. Next year, Cole, Hamels, Taillon, Liriano, Morton, and after that, in Liriano's last year, Cole, Hamels, Taillon, Liriano, Glasnow. Then we'd have one more year of Hamels to cover the loss of Liriano to boot.

 

[Darkstone42]

Not counting Liriano's dominant performance tonight, the Pirates have the second best ERA in baseball (behind the Cardinals, obviously), the fourth highest pitching WAR (behind the Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers, who of course all have to be in the National League), the third-highest starting pitcher WAR (behind the Nationals and Athletics) and the best starting pitcher ERA (2.94!), the 11th highest relief pitcher WAR, and the third lowest relief pitcher ERA (2.61, behind the Royals and Cardinals, who are both sub-2).

This team can pitch. My goodness can this team pitch. Get the offense and defense going consistently, and the Bucs will seriously contend for the World Series this year.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Bucs really only have one weakness, and it's first base. Unfortunately for the Pirates, the trade market for first basemen sucks right now.

Presumably, the only teams who would consider selling right now are teams with losing records. Those are:

Red Sox, White Sox, Indians, Mariners, Athletics, Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies.

Of those, I would imagine only the Phillies, Brewers, Rockies, Braves, Reds, Diamondbacks, and maybe the White Sox and Red Sox are ready to sell, so here's a look at those options, broken up by the problem with them:

Too Expensive
Ryan Howard
Joey Votto
Freddy Freeman

Howard would be an upgrade, but not much of one, and his contract is a non-starter for the Bucs. Votto is also locked up long-term, and while he'd be a huge upgrade, there's no reason to pick up a guy who's still owed $25 million a year for a while, especially one with an injury history. Freeman would be the best, but he's also going to get over $20 million a year for a while, and that simply isn't the way the Bucs can build their roster.

Part of the Core
Paul Goldschmidt
Jose Abreu

These guys are locked up at team-friendly rates for a little bit, they're really good hitters, and would take a king's ransom to pry away from their respective teams, if the team is even willing to listen to any sort of offer. They're probably not on the market.

Not an Upgrade
Mike Napoli

Napoli's been really terrible this year. And for an over-30 guy with an injury history, that's a problem.

So that leaves Adam Lind, Adam Laroche, and Ben Paulsen.

Paulsen I'm not sold on yet. He's got a very limited track record of professional success, and he's only got 89 PA this year, splitting time with Wilin Rosario and Justin Morneau, who have both been bad.

Laroche is probably not an option, just because of how his first stint in Pittsburgh went. He's also not a huge upgrade anyway.

Lind is probably the best option right now, a legitimate upgrade who doesn't have an absurd contract and isn't part of his team's core, but that would require trading in the division, which always ups the price.

Probably the best case scenario for the Bucs would be the Mets falling completely off the face of the Earth soon and listening to offers on Duda, but they're leading their division right now, so that won't happen any time soon, if at all with their pitching staff. Maybe if the Rangers start to fall off they would make Moreland available, but I'm not yet sold on him, either.

In any case, the market is pretty poor, mostly hyper-expensive or underachieving or unproven guys, and it will be awfully tough to upgrade first base this year.

Everything else, though, is pretty strong on this roster, and there are internal options to cover injuries. First base is the big weak spot.

 

[thecrow124]

You left out Cleveland where they have Carlos Santana and Brandon Moss who are both capable of playing first base and they have Shaun Marcum in the starting rotation. Both Santana and Moss would be upgrades over Pedro, and neither one should cost a lot in prospects. Moss isn't on a bad contract, but I am not sure about Santana.

I would not be opposed to LaRoche of two years ago, but I am pretty sure I do not want the current incarnation.

I would actually call the Yankees and see how much of ARod's contract they would eat in order to move him. You would think they would eat a substantial amount just to have him off the roster. For as big of a pain in the ass he might be, I think currently, he just wants to play baseball.

It might just be time to think outside the box at first base as there just aren't that many quality options available.

 

[Darkstone42]

You left out Cleveland where they have Carlos Santana and Brandon Moss who are both capable of playing first base and they have Shaun Marcum in the starting rotation. Both Santana and Moss would be upgrades over Pedro, and neither one should cost a lot in prospects. Moss isn't on a bad contract, but I am not sure about Santana.

I would not be opposed to LaRoche of two years ago, but I am pretty sure I do not want the current incarnation.

I would actually call the Yankees and see how much of ARod's contract they would eat in order to move him. You would think they would eat a substantial amount just to have him off the roster. For as big of a pain in the ass he might be, I think currently, he just wants to play baseball.

It might just be time to think outside the box at first base as there just aren't that many quality options available.

I don't think Cleveland thinks they're out of it, and with their pitching staff, they might well still be in the running for a Wild Card spot. I'd like Santana or Moss, though.

As for A-Rod, he has the same defensive issues Pedro does, but yeah, his bat is an upgrade. The Yankees have pretty much said they're not going to use him defensively any more, though, and that cannot possibly be a good sign for an NL team.

 

[thedddd]

Yeah unfortunately 1B can't be upgraded from any team right now. Heck even the Cardinals are relegated to using Mark Reynolds.