2015 Pirates

[Darkstone42]

[MEDIA=twitter]540185595159789569[/MEDIA]

Will miss him on the Padres. I sure wish he had stayed healthy.

His numbers are pretty bad, even recently in the minor leagues, but I don't know much about him. What kind of stuff did he have, and what kind of upside is there to this deal?

I assume this is just emergency depth for the Bucs, though.

 

[element1286]

Bullpen lefty? He's mainly been a starter, and he has some attributes the Pirates like, mainly high GB rate.

Moving him to the bullpen adds a few mpg to the fastball, and might keep him healthy. Can't hurt on a spring training invite.

 

[Darkstone42]

Bullpen lefty? He's mainly been a starter, and he has some attributes the Pirates like, mainly high GB rate.

Moving him to the bullpen adds a few mpg to the fastball, and might keep him healthy. Can't hurt on a spring training invite.

That's what I was thinking. Logan Ondrusek was also non-tendered if we want another righty for the bullpen. Steamer likes him to rebound this season, but his last two years would make him pretty cheap.

 

[Darkstone42]

Also, Justin Smoak was non-tendered. Might be worth a look. As was Evereth Cabrera, who would be a really good add as the defense-first backup shortstop, who also happens to be a really good baserunner with some bounceback potential at the plate. Blanks, who I mentioned earlier, was also non-tendered.

 

[element1286]

Also, Justin Smoak was non-tendered. Might be worth a look. As was Evereth Cabrera, who would be a really good add as the defense-first backup shortstop, who also happens to be a really good baserunner with some bounceback potential at the plate. Blanks, who I mentioned earlier, was also non-tendered.

Yeah, I'd rather have Everth than Sean Rodriguez, of course they carried the ss only backup in Barmes last year, so I don't know if it has to be an either or proposition.

The baserunning is really a key, he could be a weapon in the late innings.

 

[Darkstone42]

Yeah, I'd rather have Everth than Sean Rodriguez, of course they carried the ss only backup in Barmes last year, so I don't know if it has to be an either or proposition.

The baserunning is really a key, he could be a weapon in the late innings.

Yeah, I was thinking carrying Cabrera and Rodriguez would be a good move, Cabrera for defense at shortstop and speed off the bench, and Rodriguez for his versatility and the little bit of pop he brings.

 

[element1286]

Of course we'd also have to believe Clint would know how to use such a player off the bench, which I am not certain of.

 

[Darkstone42]

Of course we'd also have to believe Clint would know how to use such a player off the bench, which I am not certain of.

That's true, though analytics have been permeating into his coaching more and more over the years, so perhaps he'll get some help from that.

I also see that Ervin Santana wants five years. He and the Royals have mutual interest, but they only want to give him three. I think the Bucs could swoop in with four, which wouldn't be unreasonable for them, whether they land Liriano or not.

 

[element1286]

Would guess once a pitchers sets the market the rest will fall in line pretty quick, 4/52 would be reasonable for Santana, IMO.

 

[Darkstone42]

Would guess once a pitchers sets the market the rest will fall in line pretty quick, 4/52 would be reasonable for Santana, IMO.

Yeah, give the QO the Bucs offered Liriano, and their stated willingness to go to three years, I imagine the only holdup for them is that Liriano's agent wants to see the market before agreeing to a deal.

And yeah, Santana should get a pretty similar contract to Liriano's, I would guess. More years for Santana makes sense, though, since, even though they're roughly the same age, Santana's been more consistent throughout his career.

Of course, giving them both 4/52 deals, I think, would be overall a really good move.

 

[thecrow124]

The problem with Santana is that the Pirates probably don't see much excess value in a 4/$52 type of contract, there just isn't a whole lot that can be done with him that would make him much more than a $13 million dollar per year pitcher. By that I mean that he is not going to strike out significantly more batters, he isn't going to pitch significantly more innings, there isn't a whole lot of room to improve any of his peripherals.

With Liriano, you can hope to get closer to 200 innings, which would add a lot of value to the same 4/$52 contract. With Volquez, you could reasonably expect to see an increase in strikeouts, which could add a lot of value to 3/$24 type of deal, not that that is the deal he will get, just something in the range that I believe he will get. With him, you could also see another 20 innings, which would add even more value.

I think historically these are the types of things that the front office looks for. Hidden value, not necessarily paying the going rate for the production that they would get. Look at it this way, the ONLY reason Liriano isn't mentioned with the big three this year is because of injuries, if he had a history of throwing 200 innings per year with his stuff, he would easily be looking at a mega-contract like the big three will get.

 

[Darkstone42]

The problem with Santana is that the Pirates probably don't see much excess value in a 4/$52 type of contract, there just isn't a whole lot that can be done with him that would make him much more than a $13 million dollar per year pitcher. By that I mean that he is not going to strike out significantly more batters, he isn't going to pitch significantly more innings, there isn't a whole lot of room to improve any of his peripherals.

With Liriano, you can hope to get closer to 200 innings, which would add a lot of value to the same 4/$52 contract. With Volquez, you could reasonably expect to see an increase in strikeouts, which could add a lot of value to 3/$24 type of deal, not that that is the deal he will get, just something in the range that I believe he will get. With him, you could also see another 20 innings, which would add even more value.

I think historically these are the types of things that the front office looks for. Hidden value, not necessarily paying the going rate for the production that they would get. Look at it this way, the ONLY reason Liriano isn't mentioned with the big three this year is because of injuries, if he had a history of throwing 200 innings per year with his stuff, he would easily be looking at a mega-contract like the big three will get.

While that is likely true, for the next few years, with the talent already assembled and prepared to break into the Majors soon, there is a really good chance we can legitimately contend for a World Series title. We should try to do that in the prime years, and if we can break philosophy a little bit and bring in a guy who will definitely significantly improve the team without handcuffing us down the road, like a 4/52 contract to Santana (a very tradeable contract, as well, if Taillon and Glasnow make him expendable for the last year or two of it), it should be done. This is the best time to do that.

If we have Cole, Santana, and Liriano already, three #2 type starters, two of whom have upside as aces, even if Taillon and Glasnow don't pan out or only peak as #3-#5 types, our rotation will be really good. If they reach their ceilings, we're looking at 5 #2s, four of whom have ace upside. That's an incredible rotation. And we can do that at a reasonable cost.

With our core of McCutchen, Walker, Polanco, and Marte, supported by Mercer and probably Harrison, and with a couple minor additions to fill out the lineup (maybe Bell becomes a good offensive first baseman and/or Diaz works out for a few years, for example, or we add average players in free agency or trades), we'll have a lineup with an offensive floor at average and a ceiling at very good, who play really good defense, and paired with a rotation like that, would do more than enough to win a lot of games.

The philosophy of finding hidden value is awesome, and they should keep making those signings (Deibinson Romero is a good example of such a signing this offseason), but I do think now is the time to expand to these other types of signings which are more sure things with less excess upside to fill out the roster.

 

[steelparrot]

Your Padres got revenge Hammerdown

Padres To Sign Clint Barmes ? MLB Trade Rumors

 

[Darkstone42]

Your Padres got revenge Hammerdown

Padres To Sign Clint Barmes ? MLB Trade Rumors

Now we should revenge back by signing Cabrera!

 

[thecrow124]

While that is likely true, for the next few years, with the talent already assembled and prepared to break into the Majors soon, there is a really good chance we can legitimately contend for a World Series title. We should try to do that in the prime years, and if we can break philosophy a little bit and bring in a guy who will definitely significantly improve the team without handcuffing us down the road, like a 4/52 contract to Santana (a very tradeable contract, as well, if Taillon and Glasnow make him expendable for the last year or two of it), it should be done. This is the best time to do that.

If we have Cole, Santana, and Liriano already, three #2 type starters, two of whom have upside as aces, even if Taillon and Glasnow don't pan out or only peak as #3-#5 types, our rotation will be really good. If they reach their ceilings, we're looking at 5 #2s, four of whom have ace upside. That's an incredible rotation. And we can do that at a reasonable cost.

With our core of McCutchen, Walker, Polanco, and Marte, supported by Mercer and probably Harrison, and with a couple minor additions to fill out the lineup (maybe Bell becomes a good offensive first baseman and/or Diaz works out for a few years, for example, or we add average players in free agency or trades), we'll have a lineup with an offensive floor at average and a ceiling at very good, who play really good defense, and paired with a rotation like that, would do more than enough to win a lot of games.



The philosophy of finding hidden value is awesome, and they should keep making those signings (Deibinson Romero is a good example of such a signing this offseason), but I do think now is the time to expand to these other types of signings which are more sure things with less excess upside to fill out the roster.

I agree with your theory, but Huntington has never, and probably will never believe in the "window of opportunity" theory. He seems to believe that if you build an organization that is full of homegrown talent and then supported with signings from outside that there is no such thing as a window, just continued winning. That is why he co tinues to look to add talent to tue roster at rates that have built in value. I do not believe that he will ever sign a player for market value, even if we can afford it.

As for your idea of signing Santana and Liriano, I would personally prefer Scherzer or Lester and Volquez to that duo as it would give is a legitimate #1. Scherzer and Cole would make a much more formidible playoff rotation and Cole and Liriano.

 

[Darkstone42]

I agree with your theory, but Huntington has never, and probably will never believe in the "window of opportunity" theory. He seems to believe that if you build an organization that is full of homegrown talent and then supported with signings from outside that there is no such thing as a window, just continued winning. That is why he co tinues to look to add talent to tue roster at rates that have built in value. I do not believe that he will ever sign a player for market value, even if we can afford it.

As for your idea of signing Santana and Liriano, I would personally prefer Scherzer or Lester and Volquez to that duo as it would give is a legitimate #1. Scherzer and Cole would make a much more formidible playoff rotation and Cole and Liriano.

If we land one of the big three (well, okay, Shields, to me, doesn't really deserve to be there, in my opinion, so I guess one of Lester or Scherzer), I probably wouldn't even bother with Volquez. I'd go instead for a different reclamation or lower-tier guy, like Anderson or Billingsley. I just don't have a lot of confidence in Eddie for next year. Even so, your point about the postseason rotation is well taken.

 

[stillmatic32]

Markakis to the Braves on a 4 year deal. Maybe things will start to pick up soon.

 

[element1286]

Markakis to the Braves on a 4 year deal. Maybe things will start to pick up soon.

Don't get why he is such a hot commodity, he's an ok player, but 4 years and 10 figures per is insane.

 

[thedddd]

Yeah for Markakis that is insane. To be honest doesn't make much sense to sign him for that term after trading away Jason Heyward (who is a better defender).

Anyway I wonder if Trumbo could be had for a buy low?

 

[thecrow124]

Yeah for Markakis that is insane. To be honest doesn't make much sense to sign him for that term ais just not a goodter trading away Jason Heyward (who is a better defender).

Anyway I wonder if Trumbo could be had for a buy low?

I am not sure how, in the same post, you say 4/$52 for Markakis is insane, and then suggest we trade to Mark Trumbo, who is just not good at playing the game of baseball. I agree that the deal for Markakis is a head scratcher, but at least he provides value to the team, Trumbo provides nothing. In all honesty, if we were to trade for Trumbo, he would be nothing more than a platoon player with Pedro, seems fairly pointless to have two guys filling one position whose only positive attribute is that at one point in their careers that could hit a baseball a long way, on occasion. Not consistently, just occasionally.