2014 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

Might as well get this started...

Locked in...

Cain
Bum
Posey
Craw
Pagan
Scutaro
Panda
Belt
Affeldt
KCya
Romo
Hacktor
Surkamp

Arb eligible

Blanco
Arias
Mijares
Abreu
Runz

FA

Timmeh
Herk
JLo
Towers
Le Grope

Team options

Zito
Vogey

Unknown (only because COTs does not spell it out)

Kontos
Pill
Rosario
AnVil
Machi
(A few others not worth mentioning here)

 

[calsnowskier]

First, the arb guys...

Arias is a slam-dunk to get an offer. He is near-starter quality and can play all 4 infield positions. He is making just under 1M going into Arb2, so. I would guess he would get 1.75-2M.

Abreu has a shit-load of talent, but can't stay on the field. I would not be surprised either way. He is making 500K going into Arb1. Not sure what the min raise is (standard, not legally), but that is what I would assume he would get.

Runz may be done with us. He started great, but, like Abreau, has not been able to stay on the field.

Mijares and Blanco are the tough decisions. I think they let both of them walk, at this point. JM is making 1.8 going into Arb3 and Blanco is making 1.3 going into Arb2. I think both would go to the 2.5-3 M range. That is steep for what they bring, and we have options from the farm for both of hose guys. Together, that is approx 5M savings.

 

[calsnowskier]

Options...

These have been discussed ad nauseum here, so no need to post again.

 

[calsnowskier]

FA...

Timmeh and Herk WILL get QOs. Sabey-Sabes has already pretty much confirmed this. I expect Timmeh to be back and I expect the club to make a serious push to bring Pence back as well.

I think the G's may be willing to pay Le Grope more than most other teams. The mystery about the Vegas incident may dry up some of his market, and his friendship with Timmeh both spell out that the G's will be his home.

Towers is gone. Thanks for the memories.

JLo may be back, but I am not hat confident. I don't know how much the G's would be willing to commit to a 37 yo specialist, but they have public ally stated their love of him, so maybe they will go farther than WE would think would be proper. He has reportedly wanted to play closer to his VA home, though, so the Braves, Nats and O's will certainly be in the mix for his services as well. The Giants since on where this goes will likely influence how they proceed with Runz and/or Mijares in Arb offers.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Might as well get this started...

Unknown (only because COTs does not spell it out)

Kontos
Pill
Rosario
AnVil
Machi

Kontos - started the year with 140 days (0.140) of service time. Won't be arb eligible : ~$500K in majors, ~80K in minors.
Pill - started the year with 142 days (0.142) of service time. Won't be arb eligible : ~$500K in majors, ~80K in minors.
Rosario - started the year with 138 days of service time. As above.
Machi - started the year with 33 days of service time. As above.
AnVil - started the year with ZERO days of service time. two option years left. minor league min : ~$80K

 

[calsnowskier]

Finances...

With the "locked in" players, the Giants currently have a payroll of 84.5M. This includes...

Cain (20.8)
Posey (11.3)
Pagan (10.2)
Panda (8.2)
Scutaro (6.7)
Affeldt (6)
Romo (5.5)
KCya (4.5)
Bum (4)

Zito buy out (7)
Vogey buy-out (0.3)

It has been widely discussed on KNBR and the Giants blogosphere that Belt and Craw will have extension discussions this off-season. It seems that the prevailing opinion (and I agree with it) that Craw will sign, Belt will not. Craw has been relatively consistent and showing improvement all the time. Belt has been up and down, but appears like he MAY have finally figured it out with the grip adjustment. He may want to play one more year to up his value before locking himself into a deal.

Further, Romo will be an FA after '14. I think the Giants may want to discuss at least a 1 year extension with him. I am not sure he would be up to extending right now, or what the price-tag would be on that, but I definitely think it should be discussed.

There are no other players of concern coming up on FA after '14.

Arb guys

Arias (expect ~ 2M) We will likely keep him
Blanco (expect ~ 2.5M) Could go either way, but I expect us to move on
Abreu (expect ~ .75M) Could go either way, but I expect us to sign him
Mijares (expect ~ 2.5M) Depends on what the team expects to do with JLo
Runzler (expect ~ .75) Could go either way, depends on what the team expects to do with JLo


Assuming we ONLY keep Arias of the Arb-guys, and let both Zito AND Vogey walk, that puts us at 86.5M while filling these rolls...

2 catchers (Posey, Hacktor)
1 starting 1B (Belt)
1 starting 2B (Scutaro)
1 starting SS (Crawford)
1 starting 3B (Sandoval)
1 Util inf (Arias)
1 starting CFer (Pagan)
2 starting pitchers (Bumgrner, Cain)
1 Closer (Romo)
1 LRP (Affeldt)
1 RRP (Casilla)

That means we have approx. 63M (assuming 150 payroll) to account for extensions and...

1 starting LF (FA/trade)
1 starting RF (Pence)
2 util OF (RK, Pags, Dominguez, Perez, Pill)
1 util inf (Abreu, Noonan, Adrianza, FA)
1 additional bat (Pill, Dominguez)
3 SP (Lincecum, Gaudin, Vogey, Surkamp, Petit, Kickham, Escobar)
1 or 2 LRP (Mijares, Lopez, Runzler)
1 or 2 RRP (Dunning, Hembree, Hall, Machi, Rosario)

Assuming Pence and Timmeh each cost approx. 15M, that eats half the funds, but hits the two biggest needs, so we would have about 33M for the rest of the roster. Gaudin I don't think would cost more than 4-5M, and Vogey's option is only an additional 5.7M. Lopez should cost at least 7M, and Mijares should fetch about 3M. Everyone else listed are essentially free (< 750K).

Edit:
I just noticed that Moscoso is not on COTs, so I have no idea what his contract status is. Add him to the RRP and SP options.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Edit:
I just noticed that Moscoso is not on COTs, so I have no idea what his contract status is. Add him to the RRP and SP options.

Moscoso will still be "captive" (not arb eligible), so will earn around $500K.

I'm a little surprised that you raised the salary by close to $15M (or, rather, that you think the Giants will).

 

[msgkings322]

Moscoso will still be "captive" (not arb eligible), so will earn around $500K.

I'm a little surprised that you raised the salary by close to $15M (or, rather, that you think the Giants will).

They'd better. If they want to have even a shred of credibility in this division.

 

[Hangman]

I want to see Torres and Blanco replaced.
If Lincecum comes back it will be as a #5 guy if he wants more $ than a #5 guy then let him go. i am guesing around $5-7mill/year which is over paying for how he has been pitching the past 2 seasons.
Zito can go to Oakland to retire
Pablo needs to lose 30 lbs from where he is at now before spring training and keep it off. If he does not they need to trade him to an AL team to be a DH
Pence should comeback for reasonable $. $8-12mill/year

There really is not someone in the farm worth bringing up next year so it will be FA all the way. I hope that they get short contracts and dont pay OK players like superstars(Elsbury). Don't need a Miami or a 2011-2012 Boston thing going on.

 

[calsnowskier]

Moscoso will still be "captive" (not arb eligible), so will earn around $500K.

I'm a little surprised that you raised the salary by close to $15M (or, rather, that you think the Giants will).

Like MSG said, if they want to compete with Dodkees, they better up the payroll.

However, these posts are not intended to be statements. They are intended to be conversation starters. Please offer counter opinions, or add to the base information (as you have been doing).

 

[calsnowskier]

Bump

 

[tzill]

I want to see Torres and Blanco replaced.
If Lincecum comes back it will be as a #5 guy if he wants more $ than a #5 guy then let him go. i am guesing around $5-7mill/year which is over paying for how he has been pitching the past 2 seasons.
Zito can go to Oakland to retire
Pablo needs to lose 30 lbs from where he is at now before spring training and keep it off. If he does not they need to trade him to an AL team to be a DH
Pence should comeback for reasonable $. $8-12mill/year

There really is not someone in the farm worth bringing up next year so it will be FA all the way. I hope that they get short contracts and dont pay OK players like superstars(Elsbury). Don't need a Miami or a 2011-2012 Boston thing going on.

Timmy will command more than $5-7MM on the market. The Giants are short of ML SP. He will get a QO (about $14MM). Timmy will not be "let go."
Zito will be let go.
Panda will not "lose 30 pounds," although he will likely be in pretty good shape for his walk year.
Pence will get at least $12MM/yr for four years.

 

[calsnowskier]

Timmy will command more than $5-7MM on the market. The Giants are short of ML SP. He will get a QO (about $14MM). Timmy will not be "let go."
Zito will be let go.
Panda will not "lose 30 pounds," although he will likely be in pretty good shape for his walk year.
Pence will get at least $12MM/yr for four years.

4/48 for Pence?

In a second.

Won't happen, though.

 

[tzill]

4/48 for Pence?

In a second.

Won't happen, though.

4/50 is what I've been reading; we'll see.

 

[SFGRTB]

I think if the Giants want to compete in this division and sell it to the fans, they're going to have to up the payroll yet again. And they're not going to be able to go into the season trying to sell off another LF platoon.

I think this offseason, unlike last year, the Giants will not be able to hold onto 3 lefties. Sucks that Affeldt gets injured so much, given that he's the one locked up long term. They may have to part with Mijares. Runzler is out of the picture.

Pence looks like a good bet to return, and I feel like Lincecum is too. RH relievers can be filled on the cheap from what we have now, middle infielders can be filled from what we have now, I think they'll bring Blanco back as a 4th/5th, Pill is a good bench bat and will hopefully get some work in the OF this offseason to raise his value.

They way I see it, the F.O. (if they decide to raise payroll a little bit) can focus on bringing in a legitimate bat for LF and a decent starting pitcher if they feel Gaudin can't cut it or a legitimate starter in they let Lincecum walk. We can fill a lot of the bench roles from within cheaply.

Some FA targets (not in any particular order):
OF-Choo, Nelson Cruz, Ellsbury, Granderson, Corey Hart, Nate McClouth
SP-Jorge De La Rosa, Dan Haren, Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, Rickey Nolasco, Ervin Santana, James Shields, Edison Volquez

and trade targets:
OF-Peter Bourjos, Rajai Davis, Dustin Ackley, Justin Ruggiano, Josh Willingham... thats just off the top of my head.

 

[tzill]

Moved from the roster thread:

Under contract (16): Cain, Bum, Tron, MVP, BB9, Scoots, Stamos, Panda, Oxy, Romo, JA, KCya, Dunning, Hembree, Chez3, Kiesh
Free Agents (5): Freak, Grope, Gangle, JLo, New LF
Arb Eligible (4): Mijares, Kobe, Abreu, Shark

Committed money -- $84.5MM
Free Agent Estimate -- Freak 15, Grope 1.5, Gangle 12, JLo 4, New LF 15. Total $47.5MM
Arb Elig Estimate -- Mijares 2.4, Kobe 1.4, Abreu 0.6, Shark 2.0. Total $6.4MM

Total Estimated Payroll: $138.4MM

There are potential savings with Petit/Kamp/Kick over Freak; minor leaguer over Mijares; let JLo walk; Panik/Noonan over Kobe; Peggs/JC over Shark; going in house vs. FA OF. Also, a trade for an OF would be cheaper than acquiring a FA.

However, I think Gangle is pretty much a lock and I'd expect his contract to be around 4/50. Freak will be something like 3/45 or 1/QO. Grope might command more like $2MM, but I think the $1.5 estimate will be close.

Still seems like there's plenty of room in the budget to overpay a FA OF.

 

[SFGRTB]

Bump.

So, Pence is arguably having his best offensive season of his career at a great time for him. Has his price tag gone up from 4/50? Sounds like he's a lock to return though, the feelings are mutual.

I've also realized on here that we have forgotten that Belt is arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason, also good-timing on his part. He'll be due for a modest raise, but it does further question the fates of Lopez and Mijares.

Names also being brought up as potential international targets, Jose Dariel Abreu, Waldimir Balentine and Masahiro Tanaka.

 

[SFGRTB]

Moved from the roster thread:

Under contract (16): Cain, Bum, Tron, MVP, BB9, Scoots, Stamos, Panda, Oxy, Romo, JA, KCya, Dunning, Hembree, Chez3, Kiesh
Free Agents (5): Freak, Grope, Gangle, JLo, New LF
Arb Eligible (4): Mijares, Kobe, Abreu, Shark

Committed money -- $84.5MM
Free Agent Estimate -- Freak 15, Grope 1.5, Gangle 12, JLo 4, New LF 15. Total $47.5MM
Arb Elig Estimate -- Mijares 2.4, Kobe 1.4, Abreu 0.6, Shark 2.0. Total $6.4MM

Total Estimated Payroll: $138.4MM

There are potential savings with Petit/Kamp/Kick over Freak; minor leaguer over Mijares; let JLo walk; Panik/Noonan over Kobe; Peggs/JC over Shark; going in house vs. FA OF. Also, a trade for an OF would be cheaper than acquiring a FA.

However, I think Gangle is pretty much a lock and I'd expect his contract to be around 4/50. Freak will be something like 3/45 or 1/QO. Grope might command more like $2MM, but I think the $1.5 estimate will be close.

Still seems like there's plenty of room in the budget to overpay a FA OF.

We've forgotten about Belt's arbitration status, looks like the total estimated payroll (TEP) is going to round up to around an even $140MM.

 

[calsnowskier]

We've forgotten about Belt's arbitration status, looks like the total estimated payroll (TEP) is going to round up to around an even $140MM.

According to Cots, Belt isn't arb until next year, but I have heard a lot of talk about his arb status over the last few weeks, so I am not sure where he sits, exactly...

 

[MarcoPolo]

Belt *might* be arb eligible - he's pretty damn close to the cut-off. In the most recent CBA, "arb eligible" was changed from "top 17% of service time" to "top 22%", so more guys are going to be eligible. Belt might make it, he might not (I sure as shit aint going to try to calculate it). If the rules hadn't changed he definitely wouldn't have made it.