2014 Pirates

[Darkstone42]

Are you attempting the "...it's probably just that nobody wanted to come here anyways..." argument?

Cause money usually solves that problem.

If Nutting won't spend then there's nothing else that can be done. I can't make him spend money but i won't sit quietly while his stooges propagate dumb excuses.

I don't think he would have signed with us for 2 years and $40 million. And if we were willing to offer that, other teams may have been as well. There was one option on the market who fit the parameters you described for a first baseman. We didn't get him. Neither did 28 other teams. It was an unfortunately thin market at a position of our need.

We are still exploring the trade market. We're getting interest in Justin Wilson, who may very well prove overrated in the market. The winter meetings are only two days old. We won 94 games last year.

I really don't see a reason for doom and gloom and a chastisement of the front office over one guy they didn't sign.

 

[pixburgher66]

Napoli was never, ever going to sign with the Pirates. I'm pretty certain he just waited for a fair deal from Boston, and took it.

 

[pixburgher66]

I'm in the boat that the Pirates will likely pursue a trade because that's a situation they have leverage, unlike a bidding war for FA...but the most recent rumors surrounding Loney include the Rays, Brewers, Astros, and Pirates. None of those teams are ones that could necessarily out price the Pirates. The Astros have a lot of money to throw around merely because their payroll is so low, but I'd say the Brewers and Rays are in similar realms when it comes to money.

 

[Illinest]

I don't think he would have signed with us for 2 years and $40 million. And if we were willing to offer that, other teams may have been as well. There was one option on the market who fit the parameters you described for a first baseman. We didn't get him. Neither did 28 other teams. It was an unfortunately thin market at a position of our need.

We are still exploring the trade market. We're getting interest in Justin Wilson, who may very well prove overrated in the market. The winter meetings are only two days old. We won 94 games last year.

I really don't see a reason for doom and gloom and a chastisement of the front office over one guy they didn't sign.

Out of all the targets that i thought were worthy of our attention Napoli was... 3rd, maybe 4th. Burnett was - is - one of the players i felt we needed to commit money to.
You're trying to assume things. I don't see any point in giving you fuel for this bonfire you're trying to build.
I see the pirates as being too cheap to pay market rates. Neil claims that they can't afford any of those and therefore no player could be argued to be a realistic target if you accept the premise put forth by neil.

In case it slipped your attention we just agreed to give 5 million dollars to a pitcher who probably shouldn't be on a contending team's roster. Wasting 5 million dollars is clearly not that much of a concern, or else they wouldn't risk giving it to volquez. Why does this make sense? Is the team expecting to get a 3.30 era out of volquez?
This isn't the kind of move that a gm makes when he knows that there is a weakness that needs to be filled. You don't fill weaknesses with question marks.

The problem isn't a failure to sign one particular guy, rather it's a failure to designate enough money to payroll. With a 70 million dollar payroll everyone is out of your price range except for uber-risky guys like volquez and crappy vets like loney, and even your own guys don't necessarily fit in your budget at that point. Look at the rays trying to move price. They're not keeping their best players throughout 7 years of service. If you only get 5 years of service from your best players then your farm system needs to replace them more rapidly than can reasonably be expected.

 

[steelparrot]

Our payroll is already at 72 million. Considering roster attrition, that bumps it close to 80 million if we do nothing else besides replace injured players.

 

[Darkstone42]

Out of all the targets that i thought were worthy of our attention Napoli was... 3rd, maybe 4th. Burnett was - is - one of the players i felt we needed to commit money to.
You're trying to assume things. I don't see any point in giving you fuel for this bonfire you're trying to build.
I see the pirates as being too cheap to pay market rates. Neil claims that they can't afford any of those and therefore no player could be argued to be a realistic target if you accept the premise put forth by neil.

In case it slipped your attention we just agreed to give 5 million dollars to a pitcher who probably shouldn't be on a contending team's roster. Wasting 5 million dollars is clearly not that much of a concern, or else they wouldn't risk giving it to volquez. Why does this make sense? Is the team expecting to get a 3.30 era out of volquez?
This isn't the kind of move that a gm makes when he knows that there is a weakness that needs to be filled. You don't fill weaknesses with question marks.

The problem isn't a failure to sign one particular guy, rather it's a failure to designate enough money to payroll. With a 70 million dollar payroll everyone is out of your price range except for uber-risky guys like volquez and crappy vets like loney, and even your own guys don't necessarily fit in your budget at that point. Look at the rays trying to move price. They're not keeping their best players throughout 7 years of service. If you only get 5 years of service from your best players then your farm system needs to replace them more rapidly than can reasonably be expected.

Who was ahead of Napoli besides Burnett (who by accounts is still just deciding whether or not he's going to be playing baseball next year)? Choo? Ellsbury? I want no part of the deal Ellsbury got, with his injury history. And he would have cost even more for us, either in money or term. Beltran would have been a good move, but he was connected to the Yankees since even before the World Series. And three years for a 36-year-old is a bit tough to top when there's a pretty promising up-and-comer in the system. I would have loved for us to pursue him, though. Cruz and Choo are still out there, but Choo's contract will likely border on the absurd, and Cruz has PED allegations hanging over his head and a big question mark about whether or not he can produce after being caught.

So I guess you can reasonably be upset we didn't at least inquire on Beltran and Napoli, fair enough. And sure, you can be upset about the Volquez signing, but it's not a big risk, and we've had significant recent success in reclamation projects with pitchers with similar profiles. It doesn't necessarily mean we're out on AJ, either. It could just be insurance against all of Locke, Wandy, and Cumpton sucking with a pretty high upside.

I just want to know what your offseason plan would have been. Who would you have signed, and to what sort of contract?

 

[Illinest]

Volquez doesn't even upset me really. 5 million isn't a particularly large amount anymore. I'm reminded of when we signed Barmes and I was okay with the signing because I assumed that he'd be the least of our acquisitions, but then the season started and I learned that he was our biggest acquisition. That was depressing.

 

[Darkstone42]

Volquez doesn't even upset me really. 5 million isn't a particularly large amount anymore. I'm reminded of when we signed Barmes and I was okay with the signing because I assumed that he'd be the least of our acquisitions, but then the season started and I learned that he was our biggest acquisition. That was depressing.

I wonder what Barmes will get now, teams knowing he's on a decline from when he wasn't very good to begin with.

$2 million?

Tim Williams thinks they talked to Volquez about possible adjustments they want to try with him. Since Searage and company have been pretty savvy about getting pitchers to make productive adjustments, if Volquez agreed, I'd be willing to bet that's when they decided on him being a good sign.

 

[Illinest]

According to the best source of financials - the official docs that were leaked in 2010 - the Pirates made 15 million in profit in 2007.

Before I proceed there is an interesting thing that I need to make a note of: The Pirates had 1.75 million listed attendance that year. There are various affordability studies done every year that estimate the average cost of a ticket and a few concessions. That figure has been hovering around 40 dollars per person on average.
Simple multiplication suggests 69 million dollars, but you can see that the Pirates claimed 41 million in gate and concessions combined. Even if you assume that the Pirates only received half of the total concession dollars spent (with the rest going to the vendors) then only 48 million was spent at the park, vice 69 million assumed by the affordability metric.
This indicates a likelihood that there were quite a few of those 1.75 million seats that weren't actually occupied.

I point this out because we know that in 2013 there were quite a few standing room only crowds at PNC park. If no-shows were a problem in 2007 it is at least safe to assume that there were less of them in 2013.

So the estimated figure for 2013 based on an attendance of 2.25 million is 90 million dollars in payroll, the minimum pro-rated figure based on claimed 2007 numbers is 53 million, and the real answer is probably somewhere in between those extremes. I'll call it 65 million which I believe to be overly conservative but I don't want to ruffle anyone's feathers. That's still 24 million more than they had in 2007.
Then add Colorado's reported 19 million figure for revenue sharing, which makes 43 million dollars. That's in addition to the 51 that they spent in 2007. There are some debt payment figures which change in the report. One particular figure goes from 5 to 10 million, which shaves 5 off of that total, but there is another figure which goes from 3 to 2 which puts the Pirates at about 90 million dollars.
Finally there is draft spending. That's difficult to judge since it has changed so much. The slotting system has made signing players a lot cheaper but the Pirates have also been more aggressive about signing Latin players so I'm thinking it's close to a wash. I'll say that the Pirates may be budgeting an extra 2-3 million a year right now.

And it is also likely that the Pirates have increased revenue from each of their other revenue streams due to economic inflation.

This suggests that 90 million should be easy to do.

Given all that - a Burnett QO and a competitive offer (up to 20 million) to someone like Beltran or Napoli wouldn't be difficult to cover. Wandy's salary is deadweight that will be going away next year, so this year would be the only year in which we'd be eating into Nutting's 15 million dollar profit margin a tiny bit.

 

[element1286]

Volquez is definitely a Pirates type of guy, high k's, high gb's, they think they can fix the control problems, and he can be an innings eater. Decent gamble at 5 million.

 

[element1286]

I wonder what Barmes will get now, teams knowing he's on a decline from when he wasn't very good to begin with.

$2 million?

Tim Williams thinks they talked to Volquez about possible adjustments they want to try with him. Since Searage and company have been pretty savvy about getting pitchers to make productive adjustments, if Volquez agreed, I'd be willing to bet that's when they decided on him being a good sign.

I'd take him 1 year 2 million.

 

[thedddd]

I wouldn't mind Barmes at 2 million to backup Mercer and Walker. But with Furcal getting 3.5 from the Marlins for a MI who hasn't played full time since '09 I bet Barmes could get that much.

 

[Darkstone42]

The Pirates are close to resigning Barmes. Good move, pending the money.

 

[steelparrot]

Pirates, Clint Barmes Agree To Terms: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

1yr 2 mill, we were bound to get a defensive MI, might as well be him, good call all

I guess we have added some depth during the winter meetings... worried about obvious hole at first base, the more I think about Looney, the more I dont want us to be the team giving him 3 years.

 

[element1286]

Pirates, Clint Barmes Agree To Terms: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

1yr 2 mill, we were bound to get a defensive MI, might as well be him, good call all

I guess we have added some depth during the winter meetings... worried about obvious hole at first base, the more I think about Looney, the more I dont want us to be the team giving him 3 years.

I don't even want two years for Loney.

 

[Darkstone42]

I wonder what Barmes will get now, teams knowing he's on a decline from when he wasn't very good to begin with.

$2 million?

NostraDarkstone strikes again!

 

[pixburgher66]

If we can just get that 1B I'll be happy with the offseason. I'm game for Loney, in fact he'd be my #1, with Smoak right behind him, and Davis wayyyyyyyyy behind those two. The biggest reason I'm okay with putting a few years into Loney is because it's not like the Pirates have a 1B prospect knocking on the door.

 

[thecrow124]

This is the precise reason I was surprised to see the Pirates trade away Alex Dickerson. I thought from the day they drafted him he was our firstbaseman of the future. Then when he is about a year and change away from the majors, they trade him. No offense to Decker, but he has had a couple shots and not done much with them. He falls in line with Snyder, has some stuff going for them, but just not enough to make me feel good about them going forward. I don't buy the Brandon Moss comps, Moss was better in his limited time in the majors.

On another note, we need to drop 2 guys off the 40 man to sign Volquez and Barmes, anyone want to make guesses? I guess technically they could make a trade, possibly for Mitch Moreland, but with the amount of time they have I don't think that will happen.

Personally, I would drop Andy Oliver and Chase d'Arnaud, but I don't think that aill happen, probably Oliver and Casey Sadler.

 

[thedddd]

If 2 have to be dropped those are good choices but I think an OF will be one, like Jerry Sands. Along with Miles Mikolas or Andy Oliver.


Now an interesting side the Jays are talking to the Royals about Billy Butler. That means Adam Lind is the odd man out, I wonder if their crazy asking price will come way down?

 

[thedddd]

So if Boone Logan can get 3years for 15, the Pirates might just be sitting on a gold mine with Watson and Wilson. NH should let it ride for a while, I can see a team panic close to the start of the season and give a big haul when desperate for a lefty reliever.