2014 Offseason

[WastinSomeTime]

There is an article at FanDuel showing the results of a study done on pitcherswho pitched in both the AL and NL in the same year between 2000 and 2010 and it showed about what I had thought. Pitchers shaved .45 runs from their ERA when pitching in the NL versus the AL. So a pitcher having an ERA of 3.55 in the NL could reasonably be expected to have an ERA of 4.00 in the AL.

https://www.fanduel.com/insider/2011/08/02/the-impact-of-switching-leagues-for-pitchers/

In line with what Will stated in that he could produce a 4.00 ERA.

 

[WastinSomeTime]

I know that had to have been a brain fart...How could you forget Colorado?

Also D'Backs, Wrigley, Dodger, and Miller park. Lots of favorable hitter parks in the NL recently.

LOL! Thought about Colorado right away too.

 

[saddles]

In line with what Will stated in that he could produce a 4.00 ERA.

If you get the 2014 Kennedy you get an AL ERA of about 4.10, but if you get the 2013 version Kennedy would have an AL ERA of 5.35. The 2012 version would produce an AL ERA of 4.45. All of that for $10.3 million. No thanks.

 

[donaldson79]

This from Jim Bowden:

3. The Mets finally upgrade at shortstop, getting one from the Mariners

Publicly, the Mets say they are prepared to give Wilmer Flores a chance to be their everyday shortstop, but behind the scenes, their actions have been quite the opposite, as they have been talking to almost every general manager and agent who has an available shortstop. Although there are free-agent solutions, everyone from Hanley Ramirez to Asdrubal Cabrera to Stephen Drew, I think they'll trade for the answer. The Mariners have two shortstops who are available for trade in Brad Miller (pictured) and Chris Taylor, and I predict the Mets will trade a back-of-rotation starter to get one of them.

4. Mariners sign Hanley Ramirez

Seattle is committed to getting the final impact bat it needs, and Ramirez is the perfect right-handed bat to put between Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager in the lineup. Ramirez, 30, is a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat and has told his agents he'd be willing to change position for the right contract commitment. The Mariners could play him at shortstop for a year or two or move him to right field. Cano is encouraging the Mariners' front office to sign him, and Ramirez would fit in nicely in the Cano-led Mariners clubhouse.

 

[darrylgann]

@JeffWilson_FWST: #Rangers elbow updates: Yu Darvish won't have his MRI until early next week, and Alexi Ogando has decided to not pitch in winter ball.

 

[Justinkm83]

Rangers need to pursue Dioner Navarro. He has 1 year left under contract at 5M. He is unhappy about the Russell Martin signing. He would bridge the gap to Alfaro ang could perform well considering its a contract year.

I wanted him in the past and he had a good year last year

 

[WilltheThrill]

If you get the 2014 Kennedy you get an AL ERA of about 4.10, but if you get the 2013 version Kennedy would have an AL ERA of 5.35. The 2012 version would produce an AL ERA of 4.45. All of that for $10.3 million. No thanks.

Those are flawed assumptions for a few reasons:

1) You are using an average stat of 0.45 runs added. Just because the average of all pitchers who switched leagues was 0.45, it isn't fair to assume that Kennedy automatically would add that many runs. Some pitchers are capable of pitching in both leagues equally well, some aren't. Maybe Kennedy only adds on 0.2 runs per game. Maybe he adds no runs at all. GM's don't take average stats like that and use them to determine whether or not to acquire players.

2) If you are going to use Kennedy's 2 worst seasons in 2012 and 2013 as statistical proof of what he might achieve in the AL, you have to include his best season (just 1 year prior) in which he had a 2.88 ERA. That would equate to a 3.33 ERA in the AL using your 0.45 average stat. That's easily worth $10 Million for one season.

Aces go for about $18-25 Million per season these days. I'd say $10 Million for a legit #3 isn't unreasonable. Current internal options for the #3 spot are Colby Lewis and Nick Tepesch. I don't know about you, but I don't see either one of them posting a 4.00 ERA with 185 K while staying healthy all season. I know a decent amount about Ian Kennedy because I've owned him in my dynasty fantasy baseball league for 4 years in a row and have tracked his game-by-game results. He posts several starts where he dominates opponents, much more so than Lewis and Tepesch are capable of doing. Look at his game logs. He has subpar performances here and there which prevent him from being a true #1 or #2. But he can be quite good, and I just don't know of many available pitchers in the Rangers' price range who could give them what Kennedy could. Of course I would prefer Cashner or Ross, but those guys would cost us better prospects.

 

[darrylgann]

Those are flawed assumptions for a few reasons:

1) You are using an average stat of 0.45 runs added. Just because the average of all pitchers who switched leagues was 0.45, it isn't fair to assume that Kennedy automatically would add that many runs. Some pitchers are capable of pitching in both leagues equally well, some aren't. Maybe Kennedy only adds on 0.2 runs per game. Maybe he adds no runs at all. GM's don't take average stats like that and use them to determine whether or not to acquire players.

2) If you are going to use Kennedy's 2 worst seasons in 2012 and 2013 as statistical proof of what he might achieve in the AL, you have to include his best season (just 1 year prior) in which he had a 2.88 ERA. That would equate to a 3.33 ERA in the AL using your 0.45 average stat. That's easily worth $10 Million for one season.

Aces go for about $18-25 Million per season these days. I'd say $10 Million for a legit #3 isn't unreasonable. Current internal options for the #3 spot are Colby Lewis and Nick Tepesch. I don't know about you, but I don't see either one of them posting a 4.00 ERA with 185 K while staying healthy all season. I know a decent amount about Ian Kennedy because I've owned him in my dynasty fantasy baseball league for 4 years in a row and have tracked his game-by-game results. He posts several starts where he dominates opponents, much more so than Lewis and Tepesch are capable of doing. Look at his game logs. He has subpar performances here and there which prevent him from being a true #1 or #2. But he can be quite good, and I just don't know of many available pitchers in the Rangers' price range who could give them what Kennedy could. Of course I would prefer Cashner or Ross, but those guys would cost us better prospects.

Maybe a mute point, Will. It is whomever A.J. is willing to give up. I would bank on it being Kennedy.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

Rangers need to pursue Dioner Navarro. He has 1 year left under contract at 5M. He is unhappy about the Russell Martin signing. He would bridge the gap to Alfaro ang could perform well considering its a contract year.

I wanted him in the past and he had a good year last year

Except he wants to be the starter... that's why he's unhappy & wants a trade. And all indications are that Chirinos will be the starter here with a veteran backup.

 

[darrylgann]

@ChrisCotillo: Sources: #Rangers and #Rays have been talking trades, came to the point of exchanging medicals at one point.

 

[Xx srs bsns xX]

@ChrisCotillo: Sources: #Rangers and #Rays have been talking trades, came to the point of exchanging medicals at one point.

I'm thinking that might have been for Hellickson. (before he got shipped off to AZ)

 

[donaldson79]

Those are flawed assumptions for a few reasons:

1) You are using an average stat of 0.45 runs added. Just because the average of all pitchers who switched leagues was 0.45, it isn't fair to assume that Kennedy automatically would add that many runs. Some pitchers are capable of pitching in both leagues equally well, some aren't. Maybe Kennedy only adds on 0.2 runs per game. Maybe he adds no runs at all. GM's don't take average stats like that and use them to determine whether or not to acquire players.

2) If you are going to use Kennedy's 2 worst seasons in 2012 and 2013 as statistical proof of what he might achieve in the AL, you have to include his best season (just 1 year prior) in which he had a 2.88 ERA. That would equate to a 3.33 ERA in the AL using your 0.45 average stat. That's easily worth $10 Million for one season.

Aces go for about $18-25 Million per season these days. I'd say $10 Million for a legit #3 isn't unreasonable. Current internal options for the #3 spot are Colby Lewis and Nick Tepesch. I don't know about you, but I don't see either one of them posting a 4.00 ERA with 185 K while staying healthy all season. I know a decent amount about Ian Kennedy because I've owned him in my dynasty fantasy baseball league for 4 years in a row and have tracked his game-by-game results. He posts several starts where he dominates opponents, much more so than Lewis and Tepesch are capable of doing. Look at his game logs. He has subpar performances here and there which prevent him from being a true #1 or #2. But he can be quite good, and I just don't know of many available pitchers in the Rangers' price range who could give them what Kennedy could. Of course I would prefer Cashner or Ross, but those guys would cost us better prospects.

Your two points are well taken.

However, I do not and will not think of Colby or Nick as options at the # 3 spot for 2015. Both of those men are fours or fives, you pick which one goes where.

 

[Justinkm83]

Except he wants to be the starter... that's why he's unhappy & wants a trade. And all indications are that Chirinos will be the starter here with a veteran backup.

Those are the indications so far because we don't have another catcher. I would bet that if we acquired Navarro he would be the starter

 

[WilltheThrill]

Maybe a mute point, Will. It is whomever A.J. is willing to give up. I would bank on it being Kennedy.

Yep, agreed. The whole debate about Kennedy came about when mentioning who San Diego might trade us. I think the general consensus is that Kennedy would be the one they'd part with the easiest. The debate comes in whether we should say yes or no there. I'm not his biggest fan, but I've seen enough of him to know we could do a lot worse.

I guess I'm just burned out on seeing us trot out the likes of Miles Mikolas, Nick Martinez, and other low ceiling minor leaguers. Give me a proven and fairly decent ML pitcher over them any day of the week.

 

[donaldson79]

Except he wants to be the starter... that's why he's unhappy & wants a trade. And all indications are that Chirinos will be the starter here with a veteran backup.

Since he's in the last year of his contract, he's probably not going to be crazy about being a platoon player.

But, he knows he's buried there and maybe the Rangers can make him feel comfortable with a split behind the plate. Being optimistic.

If I remember correctly, he's a pretty good catcher, with a fair avg over the past few seasons. Would love to see him here for next season.

You said it well though.....he wants to be a starter and I bet he can find a better opportunity than we can offer.

Frankly, the jury is still out on Chirinos. Yes I loved what I saw last season. But who amount us would've guessed this to be the case going into last year?

 

[donaldson79]

Yep, agreed. The whole debate about Kennedy came about when mentioning who San Diego might trade us. I think the general consensus is that Kennedy would be the one they'd part with the easiest. The debate comes in whether we should say yes or no there. I'm not his biggest fan, but I've seen enough of him to know we could do a lot worse.

I guess I'm just burned out on seeing us trot out the likes of Miles Mikolas, Nick Martinez, and other low ceiling minor leaguers. Give me a proven and fairly decent ML pitcher over them any day of the week.

I may be one of one, but IMO you're selling Martinez way short.

He's only 24 and has shown improvement at ever level in the minors. He should have never been in Arlington last season, and I see solid # 4 potential at least.

 

[scotsman1948]

Loria is pretending to care so he won't get run out of the game. He will dump all the high priced contracts before too long. He's scum.

every 3 or 4 years he does this where he tries to buy a WS ring and then the following year he tries to unload everyone

 

[scotsman1948]

I may be one of one, but IMO you're selling Martinez way short.

He's only 24 and has shown improvement at ever level in the minors. He should have never been in Arlington last season, and I see solid # 4 potential at least.

in 2 or 3 or 4 years

 

[Justinkm83]

Well, we signed Gimenez back.

 

[saddles]

Those are flawed assumptions for a few reasons:

1) You are using an average stat of 0.45 runs added. Just because the average of all pitchers who switched leagues was 0.45, it isn't fair to assume that Kennedy automatically would add that many runs. Some pitchers are capable of pitching in both leagues equally well, some aren't. Maybe Kennedy only adds on 0.2 runs per game. Maybe he adds no runs at all. GM's don't take average stats like that and use them to determine whether or not to acquire players.

2) If you are going to use Kennedy's 2 worst seasons in 2012 and 2013 as statistical proof of what he might achieve in the AL, you have to include his best season (just 1 year prior) in which he had a 2.88 ERA. That would equate to a 3.33 ERA in the AL using your 0.45 average stat. That's easily worth $10 Million for one season.

Aces go for about $18-25 Million per season these days. I'd say $10 Million for a legit #3 isn't unreasonable. Current internal options for the #3 spot are Colby Lewis and Nick Tepesch. I don't know about you, but I don't see either one of them posting a 4.00 ERA with 185 K while staying healthy all season. I know a decent amount about Ian Kennedy because I've owned him in my dynasty fantasy baseball league for 4 years in a row and have tracked his game-by-game results. He posts several starts where he dominates opponents, much more so than Lewis and Tepesch are capable of doing. Look at his game logs. He has subpar performances here and there which prevent him from being a true #1 or #2. But he can be quite good, and I just don't know of many available pitchers in the Rangers' price range who could give them what Kennedy could. Of course I would prefer Cashner or Ross, but those guys would cost us better prospects.

Well, we disagree and that is fine.