2012 College Football / 2013 NFL Draft

[BINGO]

Would Atlanta trade up for Milliner?
April, 15, 2013 10:08AM ET
By Tim Kavanagh | ESPN.com

After bidding adieu to Dunta Robinson this offseason, and seeing their 2012 franchise taggee Brent Grimes sign with the Miami Dolphins, the Atlanta Falcons are somewhat in need at the CB position heading into the draft. It's possible that they stick with the picks they've already got and see who falls to them, but there is some buzz that they could make another big trade on the first night of the process, as they did two seasons ago to land WR Julio Jones.

D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution ponders the situation, noting that they'd likely need to jump into the Top 5 to land Alabama's Dee Milliner, or into the Top 20 to grab FSU's Xavier Rhodes or Washington's Desmond Trufant. A number of the teams in the Top 10 have casually dropped hints that they're open to trading down, especially if they can get as big of a haul as Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff shipped to Cleveland in the deal that resulted in the Jones pick (a first-, second- and fourth-rounder that year, plus a first- and fourth-rounder the next year).

If the Falcons remain at No. 30 overall, Ledbetter reckons they should have a shot at players like Mississippi State's Johnthan Banks, Houston's D.J. Hayden of Boise State's Jamar Taylor, and they'd also retain their full complement of picks thereafter.

 

[BINGO]

Tavon Austin - WR - Mountaineers

SI's Peter King notes the Bucs "love" West Virginia WR Tavon Austin.

"What I'm hearing is the current discussion is first-, third- and fifth-round picks for Revis, though I don't know which picks are this year and which next," King writes in regards to the potential trade between the Bucs and Jets. He added that if Tamp Bay stays at No. 13, Austin interests them. It is not a popular opinion, but Austin could win up in the top 10.
Source: Sports Illustrated

Apr 15 - 11:25 AM

 

[michaelwarner]

I just got a boner!

Hahaha. I thought of you when I posted that Bingo.

 

[michaelwarner]

Greg Cosell on the WR's.

Y! SPORTS

 

[Ray_Dogg]

From Peter King's MMQB this morning.

Now for the Super Bowl participants. San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh has been at a high number of receiver workouts, I'm told. "This isn't about 2013 for the Niners,'' one GM told me. "Harbaugh knows he'll be there for a while. They just lost Randy Moss, and Anquan Boldin is there for a year, and they don't know about [2012 first-round pick] A.J. Jenkins [out of Illinois]. Receiver's very logical for them there.'' Harbaugh is one who wouldn't be scared of Patterson. I like that match ...

 

[Ray_Dogg]

Greg Cosell on the WR's.

Y! SPORTS

Rogers, Hopkins, Hunter love. Agreed, three of my favorites.

 

[BINGO]

Rogers, Hopkins, Hunter love. Agreed, three of my favorites.

No love for Marques Wilson, Ray? Or Tavon?

 

[BINGO]

Eric Fisher - T - Player

The National Football Post passes along "buzz building in league circles" that the draft's top-three offensive tackles are in "high demand" and will "go fast" on the first day of the draft.

The tackle-needy Chargers, sitting at 11, can no longer count on one of the tackles falling to them. They may have to reach for D.J. Fluker, and we could also see Terron Armstead going in the first round. Per NFP, "some" would not be surprised if a team like the Dolphins traded up for a left tackle. We expect Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher, and Lane Johnson all to be top-seven picks.
Source: National Football Post

Apr 15 - 1:14 PM

 

[BINGO]

Jonathan Cooper - G - Tar Heels

Si's Peter King mentioned the Bills and Titans remain interested in the top guards with their top 10 picks.

Regarding Buffalo, King writes he "heard guard a lot over the weekend, with coach Doug Marrone figuring he can get his quarterback either at 41 overall or by moving up 10 to 15 spots to get Ryan Nassib or the QB of his dreams." He added that the Titans could also be targeting an offensive lineman, specifically "maybe a guard." We think they could consider Cooper at center.
Source: Sports Illustrated

Apr 15 - 1:24 PM

 

[4lifer9er]

I think it's going to be SD trading up either with Philthy or Cle

 

[BINGO]

Ryan Nassib - QB - Orange

ESPN's Rich Cimini has been told the Jets like Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib.

"In fact, Mornhinweg and Nassib -- a couple of guys with a Philly connection -- dined together in Syracuse after his pro day," Cimini writes. "He probably won't last until 39, not with the quarterback-needy Bills and Jaguars picking ahead of them, so the Jets would have to trade up." We believe there's a chance Nassib and EJ Manuel join Geno Smith in the first-round.
Source: ESPN

Apr 15 - 1:33 PM

 

[BINGO]

Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Volunteers

SI's Peter King thinks "the Rams, and many other mid-round teams, worry about the long-term viability," of Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson.

One NFL personnel man said Patterson is a "Randy Moss type... That can be good, but obviously not all good." Patterson is lethal with the ball in his hands, but many are unsure if getting to that point is easier said than done. The former JUCO product can dominate on slants, screens, and crossing patterns, but separating downfield on routes is not his best trait.
Source: Sports Illustrated

Apr 15 - 1:39 PM

 

[BINGO]

Jarvis Jones - LB - Bulldogs

Peter King of Sports Illustrated agrees with the recent connection between the Steelers and Georgia OLB Jarvis Jones.
Source: Sports Illustrated

Apr 15 - 4:08 PM

 

[BINGO]

NFL Draft 2013
Draft's most overrated prospects
Geno Smith among prospects whose stock is too highly valued
Originally Published: April 15, 2013
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider

Geno Smith's receivers piled up a lot of yards after the catch last season.

As the 2013 NFL draft closes in and excitement builds, it's only natural that hyperbole and emotion will sometimes take on a larger grading role than they should.

One antidote to this tendency is to lean as heavily as possible on facts, especially when it comes to players who, in other draft circumstances, would not be ranked as highly as they are this year.

This advice is especially apt when it comes to reviewing the following NFL draft prospects, as the metrics and game tape say their stock is higher than it should be.



Geno Smith

Reason overvalued: His vertical passing skills are still largely unproven

Last year, Smith had two of the best wide receivers in college football (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey) and yet ESPN Stats & Information's research indicates that his average pass traveled only 7.7 yards downfield, which is the fewest air yards of any top quarterback prospect. The stats also show that in West Virginia's six losses, Smith completed fewer than a quarter of his throws that traveled 15 or more yards downfield and was off-target on more than half of such attempts.

According to cfbstats.com, these are the main reasons Smith ended up ranking fifth in yards per attempt (YPA) in Big 12 conference games.

It also explains why Matt Barkley was able to beat Smith in overall YPA, vertical YPA (defined as passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and stretch vertical YPA (passes thrown 20 or more yards) despite the Trojans' offense having to deal with many of its own issues last year.

Smith may very well develop into a strong downfield passer but he will have to overcome smaller-than-average hand size, an inability to throw accurately in tough weather conditions and poor passing mechanics (all of which are noted in his Scouts Inc. draft profile).

In a year with a stronger quarterback draft class, Smith wouldn't even be considered a first-round selection, and that set of circumstances shouldn't be used to mask the fact that he is a second-round-caliber talent at the moment.



Le'Veon Bell

Reason overvalued: Too much emphasis on his move-the-pile skills

Le'Veon Bell doesn't have good evasiveness.

Bell does make a lot of yards after contact (ESPN Stats & Information had him tracked as gaining 921 yards in this category, which is tops among players from BCS conference schools) but a lot of that has to do with the fact that he isn't fast enough to avoid contact.

This showed up in the four games the Michigan State Spartans played against teams that ended the season ranked in the top 25 in rushing yards allowed per game last season.

In those contests, Bell carried the ball 89 times and gained only 332 yards, totals that equate to a mediocre 3.7 yards per carry. Some of that had to do with the Spartans' blockers generating an abysmal 37.3 percent good blocking rate (a gauge of how often blockers don't allow the defense to disrupt a rushing attempt), but just as much of it had to do with Bell's average of only 5.6 yards on plays when he was given good blocking.

The rough median mark in college football in this good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) category is 7.5 and Bell was nearly 2 yards behind that average.

If he wasn't able to get an average number of yards against tough defenses when given good blocking in college, why should it be assumed he would be able to do so in the pros? He will get the yards that are blocked for him and little more -- and that skill just isn't worth enough to warrant a valuable high draft pick.



Justin Hunter

Reason overvalued: He has prototypical physical characteristics

Hunter ended up ranking first in the area of physical characteristics in a recent NFL draft wide receiver study I did for ESPN Insider, but that did not translate into quality performance.

As the article states, "his top-ranked attributes total would suggest he should be an elite player yet he ranked last [among the top nine WRs in the draft] in YPA, VYPA, SVYPA and success rate on his way to placing last in productivity points."

The article goes on to note that although some of the blame for his lack of production can be placed on Tyler Bray's arm, just as much of it -- if not more -- can go on Hunter. He fits the description of a wide receiver who looks the part but can't play the part once he hits the field.



Alabama offensive line

Reason overvalued: It is being viewed through crimson-colored glasses

Given the poor state of blocking in the NFL, it isn't a surprise that all of the Alabama Crimson Tide offensive line prospects have something of value to offer teams at the next level.

But this group garners a spot on this list because, as great as the collective talent level was, it really didn't post dominant numbers last year. The 51.7 percent good blocking rate is a quality mark, yet it wasn't even as good as the 52.8 percent GBR posted by the Clemson Tigers' run-blockers. Alabama also allowed 23 sacks last year, tied for fourth in the SEC, and its 6.6 percent rate for sacks allowed tied for 81st nationally.

Those figures all suggest this group should be viewed through a very clear prism rather than one that adds value based on the fact the players were part of the best team in the country last year.



Bjoern Werner

Reason overvalued: He ranked tied for second in the nation in sacks

Stat volume is a plus in most situations, but in Werner's case it's misleading because five of his sacks occurred during the first two weeks of the season, when Florida State squared off against Murray State and Savannah State.

Werner did manage to rack up 1.5 sacks in Week 3 against Wake Forest, but after that he went through a four-game stretch in which he didn't post a single sack and managed only one tackle for a loss.

Compounding this is that 2.5 of Werner's 8.0 sacks against BCS-caliber competition were of the coverage sack variety (defined as a sack in the pocket that occurs more than three seconds after the snap). Two more of his sacks were of the pursuit variety, meaning they happened when Werner chased down a quarterback on the run. Only 3.5 of his sacks were of the one-on-one variety when he beat a pass-blocker and got to the quarterback in the pocket in under three seconds.

Add those facts to Mel Kiper Jr.'s recent article indicating that Werner "looked pretty stiff in workouts and didn't show off any elite athletic traits" at the NFL combine; it indicates teams should take care when considering what level of draft pick to invest in him.


KC Joyner
NFL Insider

 

[BINGO]

I really like Mike Glennon. I really think a QB needy team should not risk it and draft him in the mid/late first fround. Trade back up if you have to...I think he could really be a franchise player:


NFL Draft 2013
Glennon and the 'prototype' debate
He hasn't reached his potential, but he's only scratching the surface
Originally Published: April 15, 2013
By Jon Gruden | ESPN Insider

For the Jon Gruden QB Camp series, we wanted Insiders to see a little more. So we dispatched ESPN.com NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas to Tampa, Fla., to sit in with the coach and squeeze out a little more insight. This is the result.

I don't know what a prototypical quarterback looks like. I only know what a prototypical quarterback performs like. I'm not sure I was ever completely convinced there was a perfect combination of height, arm and presence. Just give me a good quarterback that can handle a lot of football, make difficult throws, be durable, be consistent and deliver at crunch time. I don't know what the desired size is anymore. I'd think maybe we put to bed the whole "too short" argument for a few years with Russell Wilson around. Hey, I've even heard people question the size aspect altogether. Does size allow defenses to read you better? Is it harder to get a snap from your center? Can defensive linemen see you better and tip more passes? I'm not sure.

But I know there have always been believers. And for those believers, Mike Glennon would fit the description. Do you like the old convention of a quarterback as that perfect combination of size and arm strength? In this draft, here's your guy.

The question is whether what he is as a classic prototype makes up for what he's not. On the positive side, it has to start with the arm.

When I worked with Glennon, I told him there are some things he did better than anyone else in college football last year. Specifically, he can flat-out drive the football. The guy can absolutely hum it. Glennon can throw the ball to the wide side of the field effortlessly. In college, with the wider hashmarks, when you throw the ball to the wide side of the field, it's a big-time throw. In fact, there are some programs that don't even attempt it -- they don't even bother asking a QB to attempt a wide-side throw down the field.

That's not the case with Glennon.

This guy can make some really difficult down-the-field throws. If you watch the camp session with Glennon, you'll see we went through a "Fox Two XY Hook." I coached that pattern for 18 years. I'm not sure I've ever seen a QB at any level throw it with the ease Glennon can. Brett Favre threw a certain second-reaction post, by my count, about four times in his career. I saw Glennon throw it four times last season.

If you want a recent comparison, I don't think the similarities to Joe Flacco are unfair. They're both 6-foot-6; they both have really nice throwing motions; and they both have a nice, compact stroke that just looks effortless. If you watch end zone film of Flacco, there are times when you go, "Wow!" when he snaps one off. I found myself saying the same with Glennon a few times. Now, you can question the value of that ability -- I obviously always have, based on how I feel about the concept of a true prototype -- but where you can't underrate the ability to make any throw is in how it affects an offense. When there's nothing that seems unrealistic in terms of where and how the ball can be delivered, it sparks your imagination as a play-caller.

Coaches aren't just obsessed with strong arms because they want to throw it 60 yards all game, it's because they feel it expands the playbook. They know what it does to a defense. You feel a lot less comfortable as a safety if you know what that guy is capable of. Glennon isn't a quarterback who lets you feel comfortable.

NEXT LEVEL
Mike Glennon has a strong arm but struggles with his downfield accuracy. Of the top eight quarterback prospects according to Scouts Inc., Glennon had the lowest completion percentage on throws of longer than 15 yards. -- ESPN Stats & Info

Problems Going Deep
Throws of longer than 15 yards, 2012 season:

Stat Number
Comp pct 34.7
Yds per att 12.1
TD-Int 17-13

But Glennon also has work to do to marry his strengths to the proper application.

He might have a huge arm, but as you can see by the chart, he needs to work on his accuracy. Glennon can create zip with such ease that I think he can sometimes lack the ability to control it. Even during the evaluation process after the season, you saw that tendency pop up. He sailed the ball a lot in his week at the Senior Bowl. That's not something that won't improve, but it's not as if the guy lacks experience. He threw more than 1,000 passes in the past two seasons.

Glennon also needs do a better job of simply taking what defenses allow him and maximizing plays. As I said, although his ability to deliver any throw can put defenses on constant alert about down-the-field throws, he needs to use that as an advantage and not simply try to beat defenses by trying to drill it into tight, deep windows just because he can. He has to improve on understanding protections, being more consistent and eliminating some wasted plays.

Ultimately, though, it's hard to think he won't improve in his ability to succeed by doing less. And no quarterback in the country was victimized by drops as often as Glennon last season -- his receivers dropped a whopping 47 passes -- that's basically an entire game in which every throw was dropped. So you can take the completion percentage with more than a grain of salt.

Glennon isn't a perfect prospect. In a league in which the idea of "the prototype QB" seems to be as murky as ever, his elite traits might not be worth quite what they used to be. But, perhaps as early as midway through Round 2, somebody is going to take a shot on his ability because he has at least a couple of traits for which he is better than anyone else in this quarterback class. That starts with an ability to make absolutely any throw.

And that's an ability a lot of coaches want to work with.


Jon Gruden
ESPN Insider

 

[EKmane]

No, that's fine. I fully admit I put far more stock into workout numbers than you do. And if there's one position where pure 2nd-gear speed matters it's safety. I just don't agree that Reid showed he isn't any good in coverage. However, I want Reid as a STRONG safety. In fact, I think both Reid and Swearinger would do better in the SS position than at FS. So I want a hard hitter who's going to close on runners quickly and wrap up well. Reid does all of those things. And I think his coverage skills are good too. He needs to diagnose passing plays more quickly, but that comes with experience. The guy is barely 21 years old, and I think he's one of the youngest 1st / 2nd round prospects in the draft.

Swearinger, on the other hand, isn't great in coverage. He doesn't have the burst to turn & run with NFL receivers all that well. He's more of a zone coverage guy. And he gets blocked a lot easier than Reid does.

Swearinger's a good SS prospect, but Reid could be a great one in a year or 2 IMO.

I agree with both being very good ss prospects too. Definite upgrades over Whitner.

I think a sleeper at fs could be Bacarri Rambo.

 

[NinerSickness]

Margus Hunt - DL - Mustangs

Bears beat writer Dan Pompei believes SMU DE Margus Hunt is the type of player Packers GM Ted Thompson likes.

Pompei slotted Hunt to the Packers with pick No. 26. If we are expected to believe the buzz from league insiders, Hunt is locked into the first-round. His athletic upside warrants the pick, but his tape as an end in a three man front does not. Teams will like his special teams ability, however.
Source: Chicago Tribune

Apr 14 - 1:51 PM

Good. As long as "first round" isn't 31.

 

[NinerSickness]

26. John Jenkins DT
6-3⅝ 346
Analysis: A closer look shows quickness and range, and the massive Jenkins plays with a good motor. He has the size and strength to control blockers on the inside, and while he does get fatigued at times and will play a little high as a result, the effort is always there.
Previously: 25

Son of a bitch!!!

He's been in the 3rd round in so many mocks I started to get my hopes up the Niners might steal him. I hope this ranking doesn't prove true.

At least people are still ignoring Hankins.

 

[ChrisPozz]

Draft Profile: Should Packers consider LT Terron Armstead? - JSOnline

When Nivens first started working with Armstead, he told the raw, athletic tackle that he needed to play more like “an arrogant pr***” on the football field.

“Off the field you can return back to yourself,” he remembers saying. “But you have to realize you’re the baddest guy to ever lace up these shoes at this position. That’s how you have to attack it. He believed in that and took off with it. …He’s got that on-and-off switch. Off the field, he’s a well-respected kid. On the field, he hits that button and he turns into a guy who’s a real, real nasty football player.”

So through the entire 2012 season, Armstead played with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder.

“It’s really painful,” Nivens said. “Being a former offensive lineman myself, you really use your hands. And that being attached to your arm, you’re feeling that every play as offensive lineman. You have contact every play. So I think it was very painful. But the kid was just tough. He played with it and played with attitude. Him being a left tackle, you have to be a pr***.”

 

[ChrisPozz]

Offensive line prospect David Quessenberry may enlist after NFL