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2012 College Football / 2013 NFL Draft

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NFL Draft Blog

What kind of QB do you want?
April, 5, 2013 12:31PM ET
By Kevin Weidl

The past few weeks I've had several conversations with scouts and one NFL offensive coach with a strong background dealing with and evaluating quarterbacks. During those talks, several interesting points came up that have helped me put my finger on the pulse of the 2013 quarterback class at this point.

The biggest takeaway is that with the lack of a clear-cut No. 1 prospect in this year's class, it becomes necessary to break the group into three distinct categories based on scheme fits: read/progression (West Coast) passers, dual-threat QBs, and pure pocket passers. It's similar to how the tight end position is broken down with the traditional "Y" or "Joker" tight ends, who are undersized pass-catching types. Teams that need help at quarterback must do a thorough job of evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of each prospect.

This wasn't the case last year, where at the top Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were a cut above all other quarterback prospects and could have acclimated to any style of offense. More so than any recent year, this group will be ranked differently from team to team, based in large part on whether they have the skill set to fit each team's offensive system.

So where do the 2013 prospects fit? Here's a look.


Read/progression QBs

Quarterbacks who fit into these schemes -- whether true West Coast offenses or those that incorporate similar principles -- are able to get through their reads quickly, show proper footwork, get the ball out on time and in rhythm, and must be accurate. Among this year's prospects, USC's Matt Barkley (Scouts Inc. grade: 87) is atop the list.

If a team needs a QB for a West Coast-style of offense, Matt Barkley could be the guy.

Barkley didn't get much help from his offensive line in 2012, and suffered a season-ending shoulder injury against UCLA that eventually required surgery. He is also limited athletically and lacks elite physical tools, but you could argue his experience in the Trojans' pro-style system makes him the most NFL-ready passer in this year's class. His film shows a quarterback who sees the entire field, can get deep into his progressions and throws with rhythm.

Tyler Wilson (Scouts Inc. grade: 88) of Arkansas also fits in this category, though he faces more questions than Barkley and is something of a wild card in the class. There's no denying Wilson's toughness and leadership, though you have to wonder how high his ceiling is.

He flashes the capability to deliver a strike with touch and trajectory working the middle of the field. Wilson also shows the ability to change his release point and deliver an accurate throw when he's on an uneven platform. However, his overall accuracy is spotty at times and his decisions with ball can be erratic. Some view Wilson as an NFL backup type, who doesn't have all the tools to be a starter but could hold down the fort and win a few games if the starter goes down.

Ryan Nassib (Scouts Inc. grade: 85) is in the mix here, but I'm not as high on him as some others. Tutored at Syracuse by new Buffalo Bills coach Doug Marrone and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, Nassib has vastly improved over the course of his career and has shown the ability to transfer and apply that coaching to the field. However, there are questions whether he has maxed out his potential.

Nassib is tough enough to hang in the pocket and deliver a throw while taking a hit, but his lack of natural touch is glaring on tape. His release is not fluid either, and the fact that he doesn't change launch points well can affect his accuracy when he's forced to throw off balance. There are also concerns about his ability to handle an attacking style of defense. These issues popped up on the Rutgers tape -- arguably his worst tape of the 2012 season -- where the Scarlet Knights were relentless bringing pressure and rattled Nassib into some errant throws, decisions and turnovers throughout the contest.

Finally, keep an eye on Tulane's Ryan Griffin (Scouts Inc. grade: 30), who had a strong week at the Texas vs. Nation all-star game and is creating some buzz late in the scouting process. Griffin doesn't have great athleticism and lacks ideal arm strength, but he's tough and throws with anticipation and touch.

He played in a college system similar to the one run by the New Orleans Saints, and Griffin is able to get through his reads and find throwing lanes on tape. He plays with an edge, and could find a landing spot somewhere in the Day 3 range.
 

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Dual threats


Geno Smith may be the most versatile of the QBs in this draft class.

West Virginia's Geno Smith (Scouts Inc. grade: 90) is in the top spot here, with his athletic ability making him a fit for schemes such as those run by the Washington Redskins and (presumably) the Philadelphia Eagles. These systems use the quarterback's athleticism to execute zone-read plays while also having the ability to get outside the pocket and throw on the run.

I don't put much stock in the rumors about Smith's struggles in terms of X's and Os on the white board, because his tape shows a player with a strong grasp of the game. He can get deep into progressions and become deadly accurate when catching a rhythm. Make no mistake, Smith can thrive in a read/progression offense, and has always been a pocket passer first throughout his career. His inclusion in this group is because of a lack of other top-shelf prospects who fit the mold.

Florida State's E.J. Manuel (Scouts Inc. grade: 81) has the size and athleticism teams look for in a dual threat and showed well during Senior Bowl week. When you throw in his leadership and charisma, it's easy to see why some scouts could fall in love with him. However, the pre-draft process can be dangerous at times and this is why I believe in trusting the film more than anything else to prevent mistakes. For me, Manuel's tape is simply too inconsistent.

He certainly has upside given his physical tools (6-4⅝, 237 pounds) and athleticism, but there are concerns about his natural accuracy. I should note that Manuel completed 68 percent of his passes in 2012, but on tape he missed too many easy throws and often forced his receivers to adjust to balls.

My biggest question about Manuel is his poise when the pressure is on. I was at the NC State contest where he struggled in the second half in a high-pressure situation and his Florida game tape also revealed issues in that department. Manuel did not always sit in the pocket and was often too quick to pull his eyes down when starting to feel pressure closing in. NFL personnel I have talked to also have expressed concerns about his ability to see the entire field and get deep into his progressions while taking too long to get into the flow of a game, often needing the first quarter to get acclimated.

Manuel is creating buzz after his Senior Bowl showing and a strong NFL combine. In particular, Philadelphia, whose type of system gives him the best shot at succeeding, has been the common suggestion for Manuel's landing spot in the early second round. In my opinion, his on-field performance doesn't live up to his physical skills, and he has the look of a fringe Day 2 prospect who is a backup type at the next level.


Pocket Passers

Offenses like those run by the Pittsburgh Steelers and the new coaching staff for the Arizona Cardinals value big, strong quarterbacks with the ability to drive the ball down the field, and Tennessee's Tyler Bray (Scouts Inc. grade: 78) leads that group in terms of physical talent.


Tennessee's Tyler Bray may have the best arm of the '13 QB class, but can he manage a team and himself? The problem is, while Bray has a prototypical build and has arguably the most arm talent of the entire class, there are also significant concerns about his maturity and discipline both on and off the field. Those red flags put him somewhere in the third-round range at this point.

That means NC State's Mike Glennon (Scouts Inc. grade: 80) or Oklahoma's Landry Jones (Scouts Inc. grade: 84) should be the first pocket passers in play, perhaps late in the second or early third round. Glennon isn't a great athlete, but he has more foot speed and pocket mobility than you might think on tape, and he keeps his eyes downfield when dealing with pass-rushers in the pocket.

He also is an easy thrower of the football and has one of the best deep balls in the class. Glennon was hurt some in 2012 by an overall lack of talent in terms of perimeter receivers, and his receiving corps dropped a gross amount of catchable passes throughout his film study.

Still, scouts want to see more of a competitive edge from Glennon. He doesn't show the fiery demeanor you like to see from your quarterback. Finally, Glennon needs to develop a better short-term memory loss. He tends to let early mistakes stick with him which can have a snowball-type effect throughout games.

As for Jones, he can be a marksman when provided a clean pocket with room to set his feet and throw. However, it is hard to ignore his struggles against pressure the past two seasons. Jones' tendency to panic when under fire has led to poor decisions and untimely turnovers.

It is also interesting to note a few scouts I've talked to have mentioned that Jones has better feet and mobility than most people suggest. Some feel if you can cater to Jones' strengths by keeping an extra blocker in on protection or get the ball out of his hand quickly -- which is similar to New England's system -- he has the cerebral capacity, anticipation and natural accuracy to succeed at the next level.


Overview

It will be interesting to see how the quarterback board plays out on draft weekend.

Some NFL personnel I've spoken to see Barkley as the best quarterback in the class right now, but his ceiling might not be as high as some others. There are also teams that put Smith atop the overall group because of his skill set and athleticism, and I've heard at least one team out there has Manuel atop the class.

The lack of a clear top prospect, and all the recent quarterback shuffling in the NFL during free agency, makes for an unpredictable board, so stay tuned over the next two-plus weeks to see how it all plays out.
 

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Matt Barkley - QB - Player

Speaking to ESPN's Adam Schefter, an NFL GM predicted quarterbacks are "going to fall like logs" in the draft.

The anonymous GM's prediction came after the Cardinals, Raiders and Bills all made moves at quarterback last week. While Arizona's acquisition of Carson Palmer has likely taken it out of the running for an early-round QB, the Bills and Raiders' respective additions of Kevin Kolb and Matt Flynn shouldn't be roadblocks to adding young talent. As a general rule, QBs tend to go earlier than anticipated, not later.
Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Apr 8 - 11:04 AM
 

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D.J. Fluker - T - Player

According to ESPN's Chris Mortensen, Alabama RT D.J. Fluker is "one of true rising players in draft."

Fluker is universally considered a first-round talent, but questions about his athleticism have some projecting him as a guard. Checking in at 6-foot-5, Fluker has shed 16 pounds from his Senior Bowl weight of 355. According to NBC Sports Network's Ross Tucker, at least one team picking in the top-ten "loves" Fluker.
Source: Chris Mortensen on Twitter

Apr 8 - 10:21 AM
 

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Eric Fisher - T - Player

The Philadelphia Inquirer considers Central Michigan LT Eric Fisher the Eagles' most likely pick at No. 4.

Fisher may not even make it to No. 4, but the Eagles would be hard-pressed to pass him up if he does. The Eagles need insurance — and a long-term replacement — for 31-year-old LT Jason Peters, who is coming off two tears of his right Achilles' tendon. The Inquirer considers Oregon OLB Dion Jordan and Utah DT Star Lotulelei the Eagles' next two most likely picks.
Source: Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News

Apr 8 - 10:01 AM
 

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Dolphins trading up?
April, 8, 2013 10:39AM ET
By Tim Kavanagh | ESPN.com

Every offseason, there's speculation that particular teams are interested in moving up in the draft order to land a specific player; often, there's a target position ahead of which this team needs to move. Publicly, GMs will always comment that they'd prefer to stand pat or even move down, up until the last moment: it's what makes the first night of the draft so riveting. In any event, one team that fulfilled a lot of needs in free agency -- and thus wouldn't appear to need to move up -- is the Miami Dolphins; nevertheless, there are now rumors that they will be one of those teams to make a leap up in the draft order on the first night.

The target for Miami in the first round -- whether they stay at No. 12 or move up -- is likely an offensive tackle. After losing LT Jake Long, they haven't come up with a suitable replacement plan yet, aside from potentially sliding RT Jonathan Martin over and finding another option to replace him. Ben Volin of the Palm Beach Post passes along insight from agent Drew Rosenhaus, who said of the Dolphins' plans to take an OT: "At this point, that's what I'm hearing from everyone."

As for the specific player on the Dolphins' radar sonar, it's Oklahoma's Lane Johnson, according to what Volin has been hearing. The scribe further suggests that the team will package the No. 12 pick along with No. 54 or No. 77 overall to get in position to take Johnson, perhaps needing to jump ahead of Arizona in order to do so. With the Browns one spot ahead of Arizona -- and reportedly willing to move down -- this could be one of the moves we see on Apr. 25, depending upon how picks No. 1 through 5 shake out.
 

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Bob McGinn:

Some teams v concerned about WR Denard Robinson's elbow/nerve problem they say affects opening/closing of hand. Fate rests on med rechecks
 

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Good, another guy I want away from the Rams' reach:

D.J. Fluker - T - Crimson

Tide USA Today's Tony Pauline cited sources who told him that Alabama T D.J. FLuker is a "real possibility" for the Dolphins at pick No. 12.

With the Dolphins showing interest in Eric Winston, the team appears to be moving towards implementing more zone blocking. We don't think this fits Fluker's game... at all. He's a power blocker with great arm length and drive, but his pass set can be quite slow. We only hope teams don't look at him as a left tackle, despite the weight loss.
Source: Tony Pauline on Twitter

Apr 8 - 1:41 PM
 

EaseUrStorm

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There's so much smokescreen being fluffed around right now. I'm really wary of believing any last minute "interest" released from sources. I'd have a hard time believing the Dolphins would take a RT at 12 that doesn't fit their scheme. Just doesn't really add up.

But then again maybe the best way to throw other teams off is to release info to a source saying you are interested in the guy you are actually interested in.
 

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Steals of this draft (mock) has to be pick #66 and pick #103. What a disastrous 2nd round for us based on our selections.

NFL Draft Mock 2013 | NFL Draft Mock Draft

I wouldn't hate it. Except for the first round. I don't feel there is any chance we select a TE in the top 3 rounds. I like getting Mathieu in the 4th.. Sucks that Lattimore goes to STL.. I like getting Reid, Lester, Brandon Williams.. I don't know much about the guy from MSU but I know it fits a need and he seems to fit the profile. I would love to see us move out of the first for a first next year and a mid 2nd this year for #31 instead of taking Eifert

There is no way that qb's will essentially non-valued and start going around 66..
 

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There's so much smokescreen being fluffed around right now. I'm really wary of believing any last minute "interest" released from sources. I'd have a hard time believing the Dolphins would take a RT at 12 that doesn't fit their scheme. Just doesn't really add up.

But then again maybe the best way to throw other teams off is to release info to a source saying you are interested in the guy you are actually interested in.

I'm sure teams have tried every method/approach imaginable to men when it comes to these type of stuff. The best approach IMO though is to simply avoid the media (local beat writers) this time of year. I'm certain players have visited our facility or tryouts in the past couple days in which we don't know or heard of. Best method is to have a tight-lip about everything. After collecting all the data from team scouts, only the GM, team president, and head coach should be made aware of the "big board" per se. Also, a huge part of the decision making process is by taking into account what your position coach got from the prospect when visited or interviewing him. What the position coach has to say about the current status of his unit. Does he think he needs a major upgrade, etc.
 

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I wouldn't hate it. Except for the first round. I don't feel there is any chance we select a TE in the top 3 rounds. I like getting Mathieu in the 4th.. Sucks that Lattimore goes to STL.. I like getting Reid, Lester, Brandon Williams.. I don't know much about the guy from MSU but I know it fits a need and he seems to fit the profile. I would love to see us move out of the first for a first next year and a mid 2nd this year for #31 instead of taking Eifert.

The only part of the with which I agree is the Reid pick. Eifert would be a great pick in the first round. He's the best TE in the draft, and he's better than any TE in last year's draft. He's really one of the 20 best players in the entire draft.

Also, I wouldn't want Mathieu anywhere near the Niners. And this is coming from a guy who loved natorious d-bag Janoris Jenkins last year.
 

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*Notorious

Na-Na-Na-Natorious..

anyhow.. I dunno, I think he could be in the right place with our locker room and coaching staff. Wheras you put him in Mia or Jax, could be completely the wrong environment due to no long lasting leadership already in place.

I agree that Eifert will be a good/great TE, ceiling I would say Witten-esque..
However, for us it would not be the best usage of an early pick. From the last two seasons, this offense doesn't seem to cater to the TE often. Not that it doesn't, but it's not as much of an integral part as we(I say we liberally, granted) initially expected.
 

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From the last two seasons, this offense doesn't seem to cater to the TE often. Not that it doesn't, but it's not as much of an integral part as we(I say we liberally, granted) initially expected.

I think the Niners ranked like 3rd in the NFL for how often they line up 2 TEs last year. There was some thread about it some time during the season.

TE is huge in the Niners' offense.
 

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I asked Gruden Saturday what he thought of the 2013 class of passers.

"Last year was a ridiculous year for quarterbacks,'' he said. "I mean, five starters right away. This year, it's like every one of these guys comes from broken quarterback families. Tyler Bray at Tennessee: recruited by Lane Kiffin, family moves to Knoxville, everybody's excited, and Kiffin goes to USC. Bray ends up playing for another coach, coach [Derek] Dooley, who didn't even recruit him.

"Tyler Wilson at Arkansas: Bobby Petrino has his situation, he leaves, and Wilson -- now, he was the all-SEC quarterback under Petrino two years ago -- has to play in a disastrous situation at Arkansas, and he's wildly inconsistent last year. Matt Barkley at USC: Held that team together through all kinds of turmoil. Geno Smith at West Virginia: They go from one conference to a totally different one, and now he's playing at Baylor and Texas instead of the Big East -- and that's a huge difference -- and you're having to learn about new teams with new defenses while you have this 20-hour rule, all you can spend is 20 hours a week practicing and studying football, and how do you do that? So it's like nobody had the smooth sailing of some of the guys last year did.''


I can't wait to see the Nassib and Manuel shows. When I talk to teams leading up to the April 25 first round, I keep hearing both Nassib and Manuel as late-first-round prospects. Nassib in particular, and certainly more than Manuel. Gruden seems fascinated by both. The other day, one personnel man for a team not interested in drafting a quarterback this year told me, "No way if you want Nassib you think there's a realistic chance he gets past 41.'' That's the overall slot of the Bills' second-round pick. The Bills are coached by Nassib's four-year college coach, Doug Marrone. NFL types think Marrone loves him some Nassib.

"If the Bills really like him, and they think he's the best guy on the board, why not take him at eight?'' Gruden said. Eight is where the Bills pick in round one. "Why take even the slightest risk he wouldn't be there later?"

2013 NFL Draft lacks elite prospects, but features good depth - NFL - Peter King - SI.com

Whole thing above is from the article, not me. The above is only a part of the article.
 
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