2019 Offseason thread

[Gulf of Brazil]

Will Matt Stafford finally air it out in 2019?
Another feature of our analysis is that we can add additional context to a quarterback’s average pass depth. Based on all routes and the target percentage of these routes, we can give an estimate for the average depth we expect a quarterback to throw his passes at and compare it to the actual depth of target.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Safe to say nobody will be surprised that Alex Smith and Sam Bradford haven’t aired it out and it’s also well known that Drew Brees pivots to a precise, short-passing game that methodologically marches down the field. What might catch a few off-guard is that Matthew Stafford is among the most conservative passers when it comes to this measure, but the visualization of the Lions’ routes and targets is striking. Stafford was expected to throw much more deep balls than he did, especially toward the valuable area 10-to-20 yards deep at the middle of the field. The routes run by the Detroit Lions suggested an aDoT of 9.2 — his actual aDoT was 8.3. While relying a lot on short throws, the Lions have to get credit for being good at what they did: Only the Falcons and Patriots gained more expected points added (EPA) per pass on passes not deeper than nine yards down the field from 2014 to Week 8 of 2018. They proceeded to trade away Golden Tate, and their short passing game fell off a cliff. From Week 9 going forward, they were among only three teams that gained negative EPA per pass on such passes.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

They also parted ways with Eric Ebron prior to last season and replaced him with Iowa standout T.J. Hockenson in this year’s draft. On average, Hockenson earned his targets 10.6 yards down the field in his last college season, compared to Eric Ebron’s 8.0 yards when targeted by Stafford. These moves leave the Lions with Marvin Jones Jr., Kenny Golladay and T.J. Hockenson as their premier weapons in the passing game, all of whom are primed to attack the defense down the field. If Matthew Stafford doesn’t rely too much on the newly acquired Danny Amendola, we could see him pushing the ball down the field more aggressively than in recent years.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I should've posted the link to the entire page.

PFF Data Study: Examining the passing game with route heat maps | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | Pro Football Focus

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Every NFL team's biggest training camp battle | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | Pro Football Focus

Cornerback — Teez Tabor vs. Rashaan Melvin vs. Amani Oruwariye
The Lions possess one of the league’s most underrated players in cornerback Darius Slay, but there’s a spot to be won opposite him. Teez Tabor is coming off a putrid sophomore campaign that earned a 32.2 overall grade and a 29.9 coverage grade, while Rashaan Melvin has been wildly inconsistent for the majority of his career, earning one overall grade above 75.0, and three overall grades below 66.0. We viewed Amani Oruwariye, a fifth-round pick out of Penn State, as one of the steals of the 2019 NDL Draft. At the Senior Bowl, he had the highest win rate of any corner in attendance, so if he can get ahead of the rookie learning curve, he could very well be worth keeping an eye on over the next month.

Steals of the 2019 NFL Draft | College Football and NFL Draft | Pro Football Focus | Pro Football Focus

Pick 146 – CB Amani Oruwariye, Detroit Lions:
Oruwariye has some of the smoothest hips of any corner in the entire draft class, which is all the more impressive considering he’s also one of the largest corners in this year’s crop of corners at 6-1 5/8” and 205 pounds. At the Senior Bowl, he had the highest win rate of any corner in attendance.

 

[Old Lion]

Detroit Lions 2019 training camp Day 6-7 stock report

S Walker has had a very, very good camp to date so far. It's difficult to glean much from the varying sites reporting but all in all they've all been relatively consistent when it comes to discussing Walker.

Stock up: Tracy Walker, S
I’m running out of laudatory phrases to use for Tracy Walker. I had thought about running a count of how many passes he’s able to disrupt either by picking them off or knocking them away, but I’m having enough trouble keeping track of T.J. Hockenson touchdowns. Walker continued his strong camp both days, getting in the way of a ton of passes and making it very difficult for the quarterbacks in camp to get passes to their intended targets.

and it's almost been the same for LB Dooley. almost. This would not only be a surprise but also a huge lift for depth reasons.

Garret Dooley, LB: Dooley continues to steal reps with the first team and I have yet to see him stand out in a negative manner.

Thanks for this one. First I have heard of Dooley. I will keep an eye out for him. We really need help in that area.

 

[Rollingthndr]

Sure, there are things for Hockenson to improve upon, namely with his blocking

Wasn't this guy supposed to be a bad ass blocker too? I thought that is why we spent the top 10 pick on him?

 

[Rollingthndr]

Mike Daniels on Matt Patricia: ‘He’s a genius’



That’s quite the comment. Especially since it wasn’t long ago that the belief was that players didn’t want to play for Matt Patricia after Sports Illustrated published a report in which agents told them Detroit was an undesirable destination. “Especially with Matt ‘I think I’m Belichick but I haven’t done s---’ Patricia,” one anonymous agent said.

Daniels comments just about destroy that narrative.

What’s interesting is that Mike Daniels commented that he had never even met Matt Patricia before signing with the Lions on Friday. So this something where the belief in the league, at least among some of the players, is that Matt Patricia is a guy that defensive players want to play for, and his reputation is good. Daniels, in fact, said his reputation is that “he does things the right way.”

Daniells wasn’t the only new Lion that had praise for Matt Patrica on Sunday. New corner Rashaan Melvin said Patrica was “No BS” when the media spoke with him after camp.

What is he supposed to say though? YOOOO, Packers won't pay me 8 but these guys said 9 million, hellllll YEAH boi!!

 

[Rollingthndr]

Gonna be nice to have a guy that good rotating in.

 

[Stomp]

Wasn't this guy supposed to be a bad ass blocker too? I thought that is why we spent the top 10 pick on him?

He was one of the best i've seen at the college level, but blocking assignments at the pro level are more complex and the players they are blocking are generally better players. Even the best college blockers don't always make the adjustment. He's a smart guy with good power and technique i'm sure he will pick it up quickly.

 

[Stomp]

What is he supposed to say though? YOOOO, Packers won't pay me 8 but these guys said 9 million, hellllll YEAH boi!!

It sounds as if there was a lot of interest for him

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Report: Lions give G Joe Dahl two-year extension

No financial terms were disclosed.

Does this mean he has the upper hand on starting at LG ?

 

[Mebert]

Report: Lions give G Joe Dahl two-year extension

No financial terms were disclosed.

Does this mean he has the upper hand on starting at LG ?

He might be, even if he does not start he has a lot of value where he can play a lot of spots on the line if we have injuries.

I have hope for him, Pope, Crosby, and Benzschawel. I don't think they all pan out, but 1 or 2 of them do and the oline could be set for years.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I have hope for him, Pope, Crosby, and Benzschawel. I don't think they all pan out, but 1 or 2 of them do and the oline could be set for years.

The former and the latter have had absolutely atrocious reps in camp so far according to all Lions related news reports.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

He might be, even if he does not start he has a lot of value where he can play a lot of spots on the line if we have injuries.

100% agree with plays a lot of spots. Last year alone had in-game reps at LG, RG, FB, TE, H-Back and 6th OL.

Dahl has yet to play above average or even average at any position but that versatility is difficult to come by.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Detroit Lions observations: Is Graham Glasgow's starting job in jeopardy?

Graham Glasgow has been the Detroit Lions' most dependable offensive lineman for two years running.

In 2017, when the Lions shuffled through 11 different starting combinations on their offensive line, Glasgow was the only player to play all 1,041 offensive snaps, splitting his time between center and left guard.

Last year, Glasgow moved to center full-time and once again was an iron man, playing all but one of the Lions' 1,075 offensive plays.

Heading into training camp: Projecting Graham Glasgow's contract extension

Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn has historically given core players contract extensions in training camp, and with offensive lineman Graham Glasgow in the final year of his rookie deal, most are anticipating him to receive a new deal this fall.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Heading into training camp: Projecting Graham Glasgow's contract extension

In order to develop an accurate projection, research was broken down into three examinations. Looking at last years interior offensive line free agent class, the overall interior salaries of interior offensive linemen throughout the league and a narrowed down exploration into contracts of players similar in age and on-field success.

After exploring the current interior offensive line market, here’s a breakdown and projection of what that new contract could look like.

Conclusion
If we compare the three sections examined we get the following results:

If Glasgow receives an extension in fall camp, he will have just turned 27-years-old, so you would expect the two sides to target a four- to five-year deal, matching the previous lengths of deals Quinn has made in past training camps.

A contract averaging $8,621,650 also seems to line up with the league average for a player who has consistently outplayed his contract — Glasgow earned hefty performance-based pay bonuses in each of the last two seasons — and is position flexible. If he were to reach the 2020 free agent market, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his contract average exceed $9 million like this year’s class.

The tricky part will be guaranteed money. The average suggests a number around $17 million, but that doesn’t factor in the years of the contract. If Glasgow receives a five-year deal, as you can see in the chart in the section above, that figure will be closer to $25 or 26 million.

Erik’s prediction
A 5-year deal, averaging $8,500,000 per year with $25,000,000 in guaranteed money.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^^

That above post seems about right for comparisons and I expect Quinn to get this deal done before regular season games begin.

I believe GG deserves that type of contract when comparing his versatility to other players listed in that article.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

NFL receiving corps rankings: All 32 teams entering 2019 | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | Pro Football Focus

15. Detroit Lions
T.J. Hockenson was tagged as PFF’s No. 1 tight end in the 2019 NFL Draft, and for good reason. The Iowa product earned an elite 90.8 receiving grade in his final collegiate season and averaged 15.2 yards per reception in the process. Hockenson and Kenny Golladay – the team’s highest-graded receiver (81.3) from a year ago – lead a Detroit receiving corps with significant upside this upcoming season. And Kerryon Johnson is no slouch in the passing game, either. The former Auburn back earned an 80.6 receiving grade across 180 routes run as a rookie in 2018.