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Spring Training

Discussion in 'Cincinnati Reds' started by Hit-n-Run, Feb 13, 2018.

  1. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    Mahle got 36 service days last season, so if the Reds are going to play the extra year game with him the two months buys them that. I would hope Vance Worley has pitched himself out of consideration. Opposing batters have hit .480 against him this spring.

    Assuming Disco and Finnegan are going to pitch at some point this season. That may sound like a crazy assumption I know, but let's pretend. Mahle starts the season with the Reds and is optioned when one of the saviors is ready. The numbers game is based on Mahle not getting 136 more days on the big league roster. It doesn't matter when he's on the roster. He could get 30-60 to start the season and 60 at the end of the season or any combination equally less than the 136.
     



  2. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    Injuries and DL time often remedy the innings problem the Reds face. It's never planned, but can almost always be relyed upon to occur. Without a single pitcher that's going to exceed 180 innings they need a couple taking a siesta here and there so they have innings remaining to mop up at the end of the season.

    If guys like Garrett and Lorenzen start in the pen they'd get less innings early on and could be back in the rotation picture late season. Reed could be thrown in that mix as well.

    The other option is plan C. They burn up some unsuspecting nonroster guys arm that they have no intention on keeping after the season ends.
     
  3. eburg5000

    eburg5000 Active Member

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    Life in MLB these days! Free agency, service time, when it starts when it stops Baseball seemed a lot more simpler back before all this started.

    While I'm complaining about that, I'll throw in this ridiculous Daylight savings time, which takes me a month to get adjusted too. twice a year
     
  4. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    I don't mind the fall roll back the clock 1 hour, but the spring forward losing a hour of sleep sucks.
     
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  5. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    Any opinions on the nonroster guys still in play to make the OD roster? The current 40 man roster is at 38. If Disco goes to the 60 DL it's 37. That's enough wiggle room for a waiver claim and a couple nonroster additions.

    UT guys
    A. Cliff Pennington
    B. Rich Gosselin
    C. Brandon Dixon
    D. Nick Senzel- not really
    E. Rosell Herrera

    OF
    A. Ben Revere
    B. Mason Dixon
    C. Pat Kivlehan
    D. Sebastian Elizalde

    Bullpen
    A. Jimmy Herget
    B. Kevin Quackenbush
    C. Kyle Crockett
    D. Vance Worley- nickname is Vanimal. That should get him waived on it's own merit.

    Any of those guys peak anyone's interest?

    There are options already on the roster.
    UT- Alex Blandino
    OF- Phillip Ervin
    BP- Zack Weiss, Kevin Shackleford, Austin Brice
     
  6. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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    Williams is likely going to let Price have a 5-man bench.
    Pennington and/or Goose.
    Ben Revere seems pretty automatic to me. Winker/Schebler/Hamilton/Duvie ... your 5 outfielders
    Kivlehan is the mostly likely if they waive one of this group.
    Dillson of course is the guy they most want to keep, I imagine.

    I agree. Senzel starts at Louisville. He shows he CAN play the infield.

    Bullpen: Here's a hat with 15 names in it.
    I only saw Crockett for 2 innings. Reminds me of Cingrani. If he faces the crap end of the batting order, he looks good.

    I don't see Worley as a reliever, sorry. I think he's either going to make the rotation or accept a trip to the minors until he's called up.

    Quack and Shack ... shiver me timbers.

    Herget? No clue on him.

    Lopez, Mella, Reyes ... any or all could stick.

    I would like to have heard some conversation on DePaula, but never did.

    I see Ariel Hernandez got the Pensacola ticket, so that would suggest something. Not sure what.

    But I summarize Reds bullpen life as -- Oliver Perez until "Spots" is off the DL.
     
  7. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    Dilson Herrera is having problems with his shoulder again. He's been a DH only guy for the most part this spring. He's DL bound I'd assume.

    Ariel Hernandez was assigned to Pensacola which means the Reds would have had to DFA him off the 40 man and he cleared waivers. Not a positive sign for his future.

    Reyes and Mella were optioned to Daytona, so they're not in the near term mix. I'm not too sure where Mella fits into the future with the Reds. A lot of guys have passed him as he's been slow to develop.

    Lopez is still in camp, but hasn't been used much in ST games. I assume he's been getting work in B games. Him and Reyes are the two to keep an eye on.

    There's a couple kids like Rafael De Paul in camp. Minor league FA looking to catch on with some team. He's pitched descent the last couple seasons. I have no idea on the guy other than that sometimes a player gets caught up in the numbers game and bounces around. He's worth a look.

    The last three seasons Vance Worley has started a total of 24 games and pitched in relief 58 games. I think that's the role they envisioned when they signed him.
     
  8. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    Without knowing the contract terms of players like Pennington, Gosselin, and Vance Worley we don't know if stashing them in the minors is an option. MLB veterans have the xx-b CBA rules that protect them as well. That could be a determining factor in forcing the Reds hand one way or the other.
     
  9. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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    I think it would depend on the conversations these guys have had with the Reds and how they see their chances. Worley is likely to walk if he doesn't get a 25-man slot but if he sees the Disco injury as a shot at a better contract, he may hang out in Louisville for a couple of weeks until it's clear what's up. In the past, the Reds have had a couple of pitchers who did that. They usually end up in Colorado! Worley knows what's up. He can always go back to Miami, so he doesn't have to stress it much.

    I don't believe in "farm systems" as a predictor of much, unless they produce one Senzel/Votto/Cueto every year ... but seriously ... is Pennington really better than Blandino?

    I missed that about Mella and Reyes. I suppose evaluations are based on much more than we read though, eventually, the minor league structure needs to be in place.
     
  10. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    I agree Worley isn't looking for a minor league gig, but that may be the reality he's dealt in the short term. I'd assume he has a release clause if he doesn't make the club. If he waives that and goes to Louisville he'd fall under the xx-b rules and is under contract until the June 1st opt out date. He may choose to be released and look elsewhere, but it's been a tough FA market for guys like him. He doesn't have much leverage, but injuries create opportunity if you're available.

    The bench options for the Reds always comes down to a preference for veteran players with experience. I get that to a certain degree, but experience without talent has consistently been a problem for this club. Cliff Pennington brings very little to the table in terms of helping this club. The notion that Phil Ervin or Alex Blandino should be in Louisville is pretending these guys are going to be everyday players if they get another 500 AB's in AAA. They're bench player grade talent. If they're not good to make the club, then they most likely never will be. Are they going to be a better option when they're older with the same skill set? No
     
  11. Redsfan1507

    Redsfan1507 It is what it is

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    IMO, experience or no, Senzel is probably the 3-4th best hitter on this team right now, and the 3rd best SS. He will start in AAA, just to save a nickel and a year on his clock. The bench ? Does that really matter on a 90 loss team? Really ? If the bench was better they would be starting in this lineup.

    Pitching, is the only real question here, and unless I miss
    my guess, there isn't many questions about performance, it's going to be sub standard from most of this staff, barring injuries, worse with them.

    I think a couple SP's- Castillo and maybe Mahle could be respectable. It's tough on young studs that itch well and still lose though..they tend to overthrow. There are lots of arms in Cason, but not many that look like they have more than occasional command. This lineup could win 68-88 games depending on the pitching. I'm expecting closer to 68 with this pitching.
     
  12. Redsfan1507

    Redsfan1507 It is what it is

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    Spell assist sucks
    Almost as bad as my proofreading.
     
  13. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    Spell assist only works if you're using it. I don't and try to proof read, but it's futile at times.

    I thought Vance Worley qualified as a xx-b free agent, but he's short 97 days of service time. That probably makes it more likely he'll walk if he doesn't make the club.

    Cliff Pennington and Ben Revere are 6 year vets and fall under the xx-b rules. If they aren't guaranteed a roster spot they must be teased 5 days priot to OD or payed a $100k retention fee. The Reds have a history of releasing in lieu of paying the $100k.
     
  14. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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    I think our expectations 2 years ago were that this pitching staff would be farther along and as time passes, we are seeing that they need to run faster to stay in place. Had the health been there, this staff would be where it needs to be -- refining, upgrading and evaluating.

    The FO has done little more than finger-crossing for the last 2 years and that appears to be a continuing trend. I think it's time to jettison the idea of actually counting on Disco and move on. Even if he can pitch, it's likely in a season that is either washed up or never got going.

    Structure a pitching staff without him and see if he can crack the door. If somebody wants to trade for him, make the deal.
     
  15. Redsfan1507

    Redsfan1507 It is what it is

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    Honestly, I think it's an easier transition on a pitching staff if you add a rookie or two at a time, instead of needing half a dozen. It's like quadrupling your lottery play- you just lose more faster, and makes you lose confidence in the numbers you picked. It also uses up options quicker and increases turnover-not a goal if you already can't keep up.
     
  16. Redsfan1507

    Redsfan1507 It is what it is

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    It's easier to give up on Desclafano than Bailey because he's about $100M cheaper.
     
  17. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    I like the young pitching the Reds have assembled. Castillo, Romano, Stephenson, Garrett, and Mahle all have 6 years of team control remaining and are all age 25 or younger. There's a couple guys in the system below them that are noteworthy. They don't need all of them to turn the corner and they shouldn't be expected to reach their ceiling this season.

    I agree Desclafani is more of an obstacle than a path forward. The same is true for Bailey and possibly Finnegan. Bailey is owed $49M through next season. He's getting close to cut bait and run territory if necessary. Of those three only Finnegan is young enough to be relevant.

    Three from the farm system, one FA or trade piece, and someone not on the radar yet and they may find a viable rotation. I'm looking three years down the road.
     
  18. JohnU

    JohnU Aristocratic Hoosier

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    It may end up being what we expect is a reasonable goal.
    I really am sort of weary of the "well, when ........... gets healthy, we can get this rotation in place."
    Dufuq they will.
    If 3-5ths of a rotation is unclear on the 13th of March, you have more problems than just choosing the wrong car insurance company. As of today, only 2-5ths is unclear, which is a 20 percent upgrade over a year ago.
     
  19. eburg5000

    eburg5000 Active Member

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    Put on waivers, Surprisingly at least to me He cleared, Now sent to AAA. I am surprised that no team picked him up, because he's still young and if he can stay healthy could be asset to some team.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2018
  20. Hit-n-Run

    Hit-n-Run Go Reds!!!

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    If he wasn't hurt I'm sure some team would have claimed him. But if he wasn't hurt he'd probably be on the Reds OD roster.

    I believe he has the option to elect free agency. Probably not a smart idea for a guy that can't throw.