Spring Training

[Redsfan1507]

Hamilton and Peraza's struggles at the plate are well documented, but unfortunately they are arguably the best defenders on the team, at the 2 most important positions on D...and the only thing worse than bad pitching, is bad defense behind it. I'd say they will be in the lineup more than not for the foreseeable future, if healthy. You can toss all the wanna be replacement names you want, Senzel is going to AAA to work at 2b, and a Ben Revere or Phil Ervin epiphany at this stage of their careers is only slightly less likely than Scooter Gennett repeating his 2017 career season this year.

The REAL issue on offense is STILL the lack of consistent contact from ALL of the OF's. DuVall and Schebler could platoon and combo for 50 HR while hitting .240 and striking out 300 times. That might be better than both getting 500 AB's, hitting 60 HR while hitting a combined .230 with 400 K's. Toss in fellow swingaholics Hamilton and Suarez, and the Reds offense may have more K's than the entire Reds pitching staff. If Winker can hit better than .260 and strikeout less than 25% of his PA, he will not only play a LOT, he might qualify to get on a Reds HOF ballot. Even a DP ball advances a runner (or scores one) sometimes...a K never does. It's a problem that lots of lineups have, even winners, but they can usually make up some of those K's with pitching limiting the opposition.

As flawed as they are, the Reds can score, but it's going to be real hard to watch Reds pitching this season, unless about three-fourths of the staff suddenly improve their command (and results) to unexpected levels. FOX could hang that strike square over the real plate and these guys would have trouble hitting it... until they groove one right in the center behind in the count, with runners on.

 

[JohnU]

Revere will look elsewhere for work, according to the Reds. If he doesn't latch on, he'd be smart to come back to Lousyville and wait around for Hamilton to hit the wall, literally. Phil Ervin can play once a week in CF in games the Red are using beefsteak pitchers.

The Quack wasn't my idea of a find but he's better than Kevin Gregg or Badenhop-hop-hop.
I don't want Worley near the ballpark but I fear he will find a parking space.

Garrett apparently is getting the start Finnegan should be getting.

Hernandez hasn't pitched in 8 days.

Mahle is gonna get lit up if he keeps hanging sliders.

 

[Redsfan1507]

One thing some people might not consider about ST in the desert for teams playing season games in sinus valley, is the humidity, elevation, etc. It does make a difference in spin and effective motion on pitches, not just distance on the flyball. One more adjustment to be made complicates learning curve (pun intended) for young pitchers. Maybe the same hangers in the desert will break down in the zone in Cincinnati. Let's hope.

 

[JohnU]

One thing some people might not consider about ST in the desert for teams playing season games in sinus valley, is the humidity, elevation, etc. It does make a difference in spin and effective motion on pitches, not just distance on the flyball. One more adjustment to be made complicates learning curve (pun intended) for young pitchers. Maybe the same hangers in the desert will break down in the zone in Cincinnati. Let's hope.

I think Mahle forgot Monday night that the guys he was facing wore numbers lower than 73. I think he will be OK. A nice No. 4 starter. From what I hear, he has a nice repeatable motion, doesn't try to outgun Aroldis Chapman and will be Leake-like. If he's decent, the Reds can probably keep him 6 or 7 years. Careful what I wish for, maybe. But MLB history has more Mahle's than Feller's.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I agree. What kills the Reds are high pitch counts- not just walks, but pitches before the outcome. Going to the bullpen before the 7th inning every game eventually burns them, and if they have go to the pen before the 5th inning a day a week it kills the entire staff pretty quickly.

 

[chico ruiz]

the reds are not the only team with that problem. baseball // pitching has been trending this way for a decade. take a look at the cumulative numbers. it's near 60 / 40, in terms of innings, starters / relievers. fewer 200 innings starters. this isn't metrics geek stuff. it isn't viewed as a problem. it's reality, and it's a challenge for every mlb team. they're asking themselves, how do we adapt?

there's a reason teams are looking for, and developing, versatile / flexible full-time players to play multiple positions through a full season. one less utility player, and one more reliever. soon there may not be a well defined distinction between starter and reliever. the boundaries are certainly getting blurry. 4 starters. one so-called 'bullpen day.' protecting huge investments of money. teams are focusing, and spending large amounts of money, on their bullpens. figuring out their usage will be a challenge. 9 man bullpens? who knows? maybe 10 with revolving rotating roles. it's going to be interesting to see what teams try. price -no doubt- is thinking about this stuff and could be an innovator. i think it may be the single biggest reason he was kept on as manager.

there were only 15 pitchers who logged 200 or more innings last year (none pitched as many as 215). there were 35 in 2007. this is not rocket science, and it's not 1968. this part of baseball has changed dramatically. even the 200 inning guys are averaging 6 innings per game. so, you can see the absurdity of this statement: "going to the bullpen before the 7th inning every game eventually burns them, and if they have go to the pen before the 5th inning a day a week it kills the entire staff pretty quickly." i'm not trying to be a wise guy here. this is the norm in mlb. it's challenging stuff for organizations. the importance of an organization's aaa staff becomes very important. in fact, more and more, they are an extension of the ml staff. an organization's pitching vitality, durability, depth, development, etc etc etc has a whole new meaning. i'm going to stop here.

 

[JohnU]

I will go back and absorb this after my lung doctor talks to me.
I think the 10-day DL should provide a fingerprint clue here and there about what MLB franchises are doing with their rosters. They can stash a half-dozen "OK" players in the system and work with a much more fluid pitching staff. That way, they can have 100 mph flamethrowers give them 110 innings, shut them down, let them recover and ... well,whatever happens next depends on the surgeons.

But the middle reliever is really just the guy who is expected to get the guy to the 7th inning.

The days of the 4 rotation guys with 35 decisions each -- we will marvel at that as we did the men who built the railroad across the Rocky Mountains.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Everything new, isn't always improved.

Pitchers are physically stronger, tossing more fastballs and fewer innings than ever, yet elbow injuries and TJ surgeries are more common now than ever. Is it just me, or are walk rates (and strikeout rates) much higher than 30 years ago ? Just asking.

All else equal, the simplest answer is often the most correct.

Modern training "methods" increase muscle mass and strength beyond normal natural capability, but can't increase connective tissue capacity sufficiently for the load applied. I know lots of old roiders that can still bench 300, but couldn't throw 10 feet. Flexibility is important in throwing mechanics, and longevity. If strength is the goal and longevity is immaterial, you break down faster, no ?

Price, or any other manager can't "innovate" a pitching staff without adequate talent. IMO, It isn't lack of innings that most makes ANY pitching weakest, it's simply lack of outs in those innings. Other than closers, most bullpenners are generally STILL pitchers that aren't good enough to be starting pitchers, and the fewer innings starters go, the quicker those inferior bullpenners are exposed. The Yankees bullpen may be the only current exception. It's NOT rocket science, but rocket science isn't likely to overcome the issue.

I could buy into the 14 man pitching staff without any 5 inning starters, if there was enough talent to get outs all season in that staff. There aren't...on ANY MLB team, currently. If that were the goal, the morons would stop paying starting pitchers $150M contracts, one would think.

 

[JohnU]

It would be hard to tell a pitcher to not come to camp in shape when the guys who are trying to beat him out are doing the opposite. Years back, pitchers got in shape in spring training. Dunno ... I don't know that mediocre pitchers lasted any longer. Some guys just get better and stay in the league.