Spring Training

[Hit-n-Run]

Williams is running the show now, but the plot hasn't changed much.

The Reds trade talent.
The Reds lose.
The Reds draft higher.
The Reds rebuild.
The Reds go all in.
The Reds trade talent.

 

[JohnU]

Williams is running the show now, but the plot hasn't changed much.

The Reds trade talent.
The Reds lose.
The Reds draft higher.
The Reds rebuild.
The Reds go all in.
The Reds trade talent.

They did show a video comment from Votto saying he would be terribly disappointed if the Reds don't make an effort soon to be competitive. That was aired during the Williams interview and it put him on the spot. Votto would, I think, waive his no-trade deal if the front office doesn't make some kind of all-in effort this year or next.

DW's comment about the pitching was legit ... that fans who are seeing these guys are seeing them too early in their careers to make judgments. And it was noted that Adleman, who led the team in IP last year, is in Korea now, which shows that the staff leaders aren't even pitching in affiliated ball. The 2nd-most innings was Feldman, who hasn't even shown up on an injury report. I think he's still officially with the Reds.

When we look at who is expected to pitch, it's scary how little on-field time they've had since 2016. I think Votto's comment is legit but I think it's not truly fair to say the Reds weren't looking to be more competitive. Looking back at the success pitchers, the Cueto deal was necessary and yielded 2 guys who are still in the hunt for positions; Leake deal netted the first real LF we've had since 2012, and Latos yielded Disco.
The Bailey contract was only bad when he got hurt.

Arguably, the Chapman trade was a bad one. We shall eventually see on that.

Getting Peraza and Schebler doesn't make the Reds worse and he hit the lottery twice with Strailly and Scooter.

Dumping Strailly, we got Castillo.

I think Williams is showing some acumen. Right now, he needs a little luck. The NL-C doesn't appear to be winnable this year but I think 85 wins can be realistic if 3 or more of these guys can show up to pitch. The shutdown time might be a bit tricky. Innings governors on all of them except Bailey and Romano.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

For what it's worth Walt Jocketty is still employed by the Reds as an Advisor to the CEO. That's insightful into Bob Castellini's thinking of the process.

DW is the GM, but I don't see a change in the scouting and development personnel and the overall strategy seems the same to me.

There have been moves that standout. Trading Alfredo Simon for Suarez is a good one. Straily for Castillo looks good with the caveat that Castillo hasn't pitched a full MLB season yet. Both were waiver claims that were flipped for younger talent. The waiver wire claims are easier when your at the top of the list through losing, but flipping them for real talent makes it all noteworthy.

Scooter was an easy pickup, but unless he's flipped for a viable piece of future contention he's just a guy that had a great year during an awful season. He's most likely not going to be here long enough to be relevant beyond trade bait.

Getting it all to come together is the challenge.

Too early to give DW a final grade.

 

[eburg5000]

Williams, interviewed by tHom and Welsh today, said the team is planning to ramp up its payroll in the next year or so. Details were not abundant but it wasn't a comment that was solicited.

Obviously some of that is automatic but the context was about being a contender, not just paying guys to be veterans.

Yeah that might sell some tickets, but I'm a wait and see type of person. And if this is true, did they come up with this after they let Cozart go.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

There's not a lot of transparency in revenue and spending beyond what is reported. But the Reds have been spending throughout the process. Amateur and International spending have been way up while free agent and MLB on field spending has been down. There's a balance in where they spend.

Winning means your amateur and International spending pools will be smaller and thus more of the budget can be spent in the FA market. We've already seen a little loosening of the purse strings this off season in bullpen acquisitions.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Tucker Barnhart extension was a good move. A club friendly contract for a young backstop. That's the kind of extensions the Reds should be making in lieu of signing late bloomers that are in their 30's when they hit free agency.

They extended Mesoraco early, but didn't have option years at the end of the deal. It's not club friendly if you're stuck with the guy until the end when the deal goes bad.

 

[JohnU]

I don't know the answers other than, if you don't sign a player in his age 29 season and he bolts, he still has a lot of good talent years left. In MLB now, I think a lot of teams are trying the Kansas City route, get good for a couple of years, ride the gravy train for another year or so, reboot and try again. Smaller markets are never going to sustain success. Minnesota showed that. Tampa showed that. So have the Pirates.

To some end, I think keeping a guy like Mesoraco around, even if the contract doesn't look good, is actually not a bad thing. He's a friendly sort of guy, first round pick, shows signs he was not a bad selection. Had he played, yeah ... we would be looking at a different conversation.

To some end, we don't know what kind of negotiation happened but if the Reds say no to anything other than what works for them, does Meso's agent just pull up the folder and say, 'well, we'll be out of here in a year. You have Tucker Barnhart and who else? At the time, Tucks wasn't exactly a predictable product. We did have Bryan Pena, though.

In any case, I think Williams is selling a line to the fans that they are ready to make a run at it. Math tells us otherwise but he needs to sell 2.5 million tickets this year and sustain ad revenue. Some of that is automatic. But he's also a fan. I think he believes that these guys can compete. It would be fun to see another version of Wire to Wire.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The Reds have been unlucky with their contract extensions. Mesoraco, Bailey, Ludwick, Sean Marshall, Jay Bruce, and Votto in the first couple years of his blockbuster deal all fell victim to injuries after signing extensions. I guess every team has their share of injuries, but the Reds have had a pretty high % of their investments rehabbing instead of playing. All of those guys except Votto never returned to form.

Brandon Phillips was one of the few long term contracts that steadily produced.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I really don't have a good feel for how this team is going to perform. They could be better than expected or lose 90+ again. The obvious elephant in the room is the rotation. Until I see Bailey, Disco, and Finnegan string together some quality outings I'm reluctant to think they can approach playing .500 ball.

 

[JohnU]

I think they just have to pitch better than they have. It's simplistic but they have to starting winning 5 out of 8 on a homestand (or 4 out of 7, whatever math applies). Win 15 games a month. It's that 3rd time through the rotation that worries me, with those hops in and out of domed stadiums, and 39 mph winds in Chicago. All teams endure that. Go into May with a .520 record and see what's what.

Mostly what I've noticed is that teams that are prepared for the long season usually are the ones standing at the end. St. Louis is famous for doing that. The Cubs have learned how. Time will tell on the Brewers and the Reds. How you do that is probably more just a matter of being able to count on some guy named "Roberto" in the middle game of a 3-game series, the guy who gets 4 hits. Eric Thames, on such a team, would hit 11 home runs in the pennant race, not in April.

The Pirates may end up being the team nobody wants to face in September.

 

[Redsfan1507]

How the Reds play the payroll game hasn't equated to winning much when they are in declining payroll. That hasn't changed in about 40 years. So, I until I see evidence otherwise, I have to believe that payroll IS relative to winning. Either the Reds can't pay enough, or they simply refuse to. It's a catch -22 -No one can polish dung into a diamond, and people in Cincinnati won't pay up for dung.

Saying the Reds are "unlucky" in signing Bailey, Mesoraco, Marshall, Ludwick etc...is uh...kind. At the same time, they made decisions NOT to sign or keep others, so I see them as poor CHOICES, and after several of those, it's either a plan (that isn't very conducive to winning) or just plain lack of better sense and/or better options- and given the Reds payroll budgets, they won't afford better options anywhere but in their farm system. There is a clue there... The real problem is, when they do sign or draft a future star, they don't keep them (and a few expensive vets) long enough to build an entire team capable of winning deep into post season. Votto is the ONLY current exception to a possible holdover stud for a "re-built" winner, and they better hurry. He's 34-35. Senzel, Castillo and Iglesias have about 5 years before they're too expensive, but Votto doesn't have that long...so if it takes longer than about 3 years, it isn't happening, IMO.

The sad truth is, baseball lives and dies with pitching. The only pitching being done this season in Cincinnati, is by the sales department, and they aren't very successful either.

If the Reds have any other pitching, they need to show us. I haven't seen any other than Castillo and Iglesias that appear to be post season capable, at least not in a starting rotation or key relief role. Lots of names every year- Reed, Mahle, Stephenson, Garrett, Davis, etc....so far, always turn out to be high ERA and WHIP guys that can't handle it in a small MLB park. The Reds NEED SEVERAL of these guys to step up-NOW, because IMO, Bailey is done, a total loss...DeSclafani has a BP arm, WHEN he's healthy and Finnegan can't get through many lineups more than twice. These guys aren't rotation anchors, they are boat anchors drowning any chance of winning, before the 6th inning.

As flawed as the offense is, they could score enough to play .500 or better, if they could just pitch. This pitching staff couldn't keep the ball in the park if they played at Yellowstone, but it's the high pitch counts and walks that really kill them. Gotta have some frequent quality starts among at least 3-4 of the rotation guys unless you have a world class bullpen that can toss nearly as many effective innings as the starters. The Reds have neither.

 

[JohnU]

I think the issue of pitch count is probably important with the structure of the rotation.
The trend toward going to the bullpen early and often has put the onus on finding pitchers who are better than average at a role they really only got because they aren't good enough to start. Not many pitchers are trained to be middle relievers. If Price wants to get past that, he's got a staff of guys who haven't thrown 200 innings as a GROUP in 2 years. I think there is some sizzle to the steak there, and these guys might surprise for awhile. I think adding a Feldman type guy is likely to happen.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

We've all been watching the game for a long time. It's not that often you see young pitchers step in and dominate from the get go. Sure there have been some like Doc Gooden take the league by storm, but there are a lot of Hall of Famers that had much more meager beginnings. Sandy Koufax being the most dramatic turnaround in the history of the game. Johnny Cueto was pretty pedestrian until it all came together for him. My point is where there is talent there is potential.

IMO,
Castillo and Mahle are ahead of the rest in honing their craft.

 

[JohnU]

We've all been watching the game for a long time. It's not that often you see young pitchers step in and dominate from the get go. Sure there have been some like Doc Gooden take the league by storm, but there are a lot of Hall of Famers that had much more meager beginnings. Sandy Koufax being the most dramatic turnaround in the history of the game. Johnny Cueto was pretty pedestrian until it all came together for him. My point is where there is talent there is potential.

IMO,
Castillo and Mahle are ahead of the rest in honing their craft.

As well, I don't know that we need a Cueto or a Gooden. If you look at 1990, Rijo, Browning, Armstrong, etc. ... a lot of good pitching but not necessarily great pitchers. The Nasty Boys of course helped that all come together. We will maybe never see that again but every team since then has been drooling over the idea of it. I think the 1990 model is still the gold standard for small-market contenders. It is also the reason fans can afford to be optimistic.

An anecdote on this: If you watch Wright State in the NCAAs next week and see Grant Benzinger on the floor, yeah ... his daddy managed the Dragons for awhile.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree with what you posted earlier in that SP just don't pitch as deep into the game. Some of it is injuries, some is pitch count, and the rest of it is the changing trend toward going to the pen earlier. It's why we only saw 15 pitchers in the Major League log 200+ innings and the high water mark was Chris Sale's 214 innings. A true stud ace may go deep into the game, but for the most part the rest of the rotation doesn't.

But if going to the bullpen early is strategy as opposed to despair you better have the Nasty Boys warming up.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Some things don't change, they just become a different priority. Way back in my day, tryouts for pitchers were simple: just throw the fastball...they didn't want to see anything else, and if you were under 90, adios. I don't know how guys like Arroyo, Leake and Desclafani got by those scouts, but the theory was you can teach a breaking ball but can't teach 95.

The Reds have done well finding 95, not so well at teaching control or secondary pitches effective enough to get sufficient outs. A frequent problem with thin pitching is they get pushed up too fast...often what worked at the last level doesn't at the next level. They are supposed to adapt and add to skills as they advance...Confidence is important, but confidence is a product of positive results...lacking so far as they advance levels. Dunno if that is more the pupil or the teacher...expansion means diluted talent, smaller parks means less forgiveness.

Now to contradict the 95 theory, I'd take a slo-mo groundball pitcher that never walks anyone, never misses bats, and could go 6 with less than 3 runs...all day long.

 

[Redsfan1507]

A guy like Tom Browning ? I guess that is rare, or we wouldn't remember him. Hell, the opposite was Wayne Simpson- I remember him too, but sure not that many would. Baseball Encyclopedia is full of guys with big fastballs that didn't last long. It's all about getting outs and wins over the long haul. Homer Bailey has 2 no hitters, but looks only like a trivia answer at this point. He may have the record for most contract dollars per MLB wins in history.

 

[JohnU]

I don't know that 95 can be taught, but throwing harder in selected locations can be learned, as Sandy Koufax discovered. There is a natural leverage, though some of it is just innate talent. The greats like Feller and Spahn who pitched for 20 years would be unable to explain how they did that. They were all motion, big windup, big leg kick ... stuff that almost nobody uses now.

I know that in most sports, there is a natural gyroscope in the body that some athletes just manage. That can't be coached. Larry Bird was a classic example. The guy was squaring up to shoot while he was falling out of bounds. The great golfers of all time probably couldn't give you one useful tip about your game that you couldn't get from a magazine about the sport. High jumpers don't JUMP 8 feet in the air, they contort their body based on that gyroscope.

Koufax had the natural talent and only learned it by accident when his manager ordered him to pitch a complete game in spring training -- or else. He knew he needed to pace himself. By the third inning, he was unhittable.

Brandon Finnegan, conversely, is still trying to go 100 percent for 9 full. He's going 100 percent and lasting 2-plus. They claim it's easier to get there than it is to stay there. The smart ones are the ones who stay there.

The point being, of the thousands of guys who pitched in the big leagues, their diverse deliveries considered, why did they get people out at age 40? Well, today, almost NONE of those pitchers exist and probably never will again. First off, there's no need to pitch that long. If you're that good, your bank account lets you retire at 35 before you start feeling the aches and pains. Second, teams don't understand how a guy like Spahn can exist. That said, they'd simply not offer him a useful contract at age 35.

Athletes are born now to compete at the highest level possible at the earliest age possible. All sports do that. Kids don't grow up now learning to play a sport because it will allow them to go to school to get an education. They grow up now thinking they will play a sport in college. That's not the same thing.

To that end, they spend way too much time in camps, clinics, with private tutors, all of them aiming to hone a player's skill so that he can sign big, make his agent rich and all that comes with it. We get shooting stars in baseball, always have, always will.

Bartolo Colon is a freak of nature. We should actually admire him more than we do.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

IMO,
Most of the Reds young pitchers have descent enough mechanics. Over throwing by design is the problem I see. If your strategy is throw hard and harder until they can't throw any harder the ending result is kicking the water cooler harder.

Gone are the big wind ups of yesteryear. They've given way to perfecting kinetic motion in the film room. It's one of the reasons you see so many guys that can throw hard. The mechanics we're seeing today are less wasted motion linking the movements to one desired result, Velocity. It is easier to teach a pitcher to throw a few MPH harder than it is to change what is inherently natural.

I'm a firm believer that athletes are born with the ability to be great at something. Whether it's putting a golf ball, shooting a basketball, or commanding a baseball it's second nature to them. Everyone can improve mechanically, but without the touch and feel they're a robot, not an artist.

 

[JohnU]

I think our Disco concerns are a little farther back in the pantry this morning.
Naturally the oblique pull is yet to come.