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JohnU

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Any outfit that cuts somebody from the 40-man to pick up a guy who was cut from a 40-man ... well, yeah.
 

Hit-n-Run

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The waiver wire can be a tit-for-tat process. I don't know much about tat, but I'm in favor of more tits.
 

JohnU

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The waiver wire can be a tit-for-tat process. I don't know much about tat, but I'm in favor of more tits.

The Jugs gun will sort some of that out.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Dick Williams would like us to believe that the club is on the threshold of a 2010 type season, but the reality is it's closer to 2008. The rotation that season was Bronson 4.77, Edison V 3.21, Harang 4.78, Cueto 4.81, Josh Fogg 7.58, and Homer 7.93 wasn't looking like $100M and 10 years later still doesn't. Team ERA 2008 4.55, 2009 4.18, 2010 4.01 with 80% of rotation in place, injury plagued 2011 and a trade for Latos later 2012 3.34. All for a two year window that slammed on our fingers. Word of advice, keeps your fingers off the window seal.

But still we watch. Beats watching grass grow and talking about the weather.
 

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The Central division is going to be tough this year, and the Reds haven't done much to improve. Chicago, St Louis, and Milwaukee, all have the potential to go deep into the playoffs. I don't see where Williams gets this idea. But that is his job, get fans to buy tickets

Don't get me wrong. I hope and wish the Reds win over 100 games and sweep through the Playoffs and World Series. I also hope and wish a lot of other things to, but reality is normally different than my hopes and wishes. at least most of them.
 
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JohnU

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I think the trick to baseball is play 'better enough' to win 2 out of 3. It's quite rudimentary math that over 6 months, you need to win 15 games a month to be in the pennant race. If you win 16 a month, you are going to win the division. 14 a month and a team like the Reds can call it a success. It's the 11 and 12 a month that hurt. The difference is TWO OR THREE DAMNED WINS every 30 days.

I think that if nothing else in the league got better, the Reds pitching CAN win those 2 games more a month. The line-to-line daily team is good enough to achieve that and the bullpen is a half-run better this year. If the rotation is a half-run better, great. It would not take much to be better than Tim Adleman and Bronson Arragarm and the rest of that exploratory surgery experiment.

But if the rest of the division/league is upgraded, then the Reds gotta take a step and a half forward, instead of one step. Honestly, I think the only team that radically improved this year is the Brewers. The Cubs just changed people. St. Louis is marginally better with Ozuna. The rest of the league just shuffled the deck and shoved players around.

It's too soon to evaluate that.

Bottom line: I will be a bit more optimistic than is good for me. The eyeball test tells me this team will be lucky to win 75 games. I think that's a bit low. But to go to 85 wins, that's tough to handle.
 

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having john farrel on board can not be a bad thing. the reds have desperately needed guys like him and darwin since the years hit-n-run referenced above. small market teams can't have development go mia for 4 years. especially as it pertains to starting pitching.
 

JohnU

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I think there are pitchers in the system. I think the system is failing them.
 

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maybe the reds only mistake was projecting quicker evolution / development of their pitching prospects. quality of instruction is the next question, which is a entirely different post, and something i think williams has been addressing. i personally thought and continue to believe that mid 2018 is the cut off point, for many of them, because many are not young anymore - mid 20's - and the reds acquired them in generally the same time frame, which has created a bottleneck.

too often, in the last decade, i've seen a young reds pitcher get to the major leagues and suddenly not trust his stuff. way way too many pitches thrown. way too many pitchers with only two mlb legitmate pitches. imo, those days are receding into the past. double danny darwin's salary today would be my advise. actually, triple it.

i've noticed the same things you guys have with each individual pitcher. the goal is consistency. i, like h-n-r, am willing to be a little patient with that as long as i see improvement and building toward consistent good outings. this is part conjecture on my part, but so far the really successful reds pitchers have come from pensacola under the tutelage of danny darwin. castillo and mahle made their biggest improvements and advances at pensacola. it's where they converted peralta from starter to relief.

i watched a lot of international league play last year, and compared overall team pitching, because it's where the reds made their largest investments. not necessarily money, but in time and effort. there are a lot of factors involved with each mlb team's system and process. i think it's fair to say they all work hard to improve their prospects. it's also fair to say that louisville had very similar raw talent compared to indianapolis, durham, and scranton. which begs the question: why are other teams more successful at development with similar, or lesser rated, pitching talent? one thing I've definitely noticed is other organizations improvement seems more ordered and progress comes in more well defined stages of success. there just seems to be a disconnect between the blue wahoos and the bats. take this with a grain of salt, because it's coming from a fan who is using his eyeballs and not qualified to be giving any organizational pitching advice to anyone at the professional level. when mlb-dot, or any other supposedly qualified organization, ranks mlb team's farm systems they do it on the basis of the sheer number of highly touted or arbitrarily evaluated prospects within the organizations. these rankings never talk about the most important factor involved in such a list: instruction. i don't think peralta, mahle, lopez, and castillo -among others- would be as far along as they are without having been tutored by danny darwin. at this point, from what i've seen, castillo and mahle are the only two prospects that look like legitimate mlb starting pitchers. romano looks like a very good 7th / 8th inning relief power pitcher. i suspect how his change develops will dictate his role. garrett impresses me as a potential pitch to contact starter with k ability in his back pocket.

the reds success hinges on the young pitching prospects. i know that sounds overly simplified, because all teams rely on their pitching. but, the reds are a small market team that must develop it's own pitching to be successful. like all mid / small market teams, they cannot afford any top line mlb starting pitching via free agency. regardless of all the above, i'm relieved to see the reds: 1) have the young pitching talent in abundance, and 2) are using it. the veteran starting pitcher signings of the last 3 or 4 off-seasons were sad and pathetic shells of the their former selves walking, in some cases, limping to the mound. it was actually embarrassing as a reds fan. i'm glad they didn't do that this year.
 

Hit-n-Run

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Hard for me to categorize what the problems may be in the Reds process of scouting a player to putting the cherry on top when all I ever see is the end result. But when I see some pitchers nearing graduation that obviously haven't passed inspection it makes me wonder at times.

There was a void in the process while the club was in it's all in phase. Let's call it the TC phase. Tony Cingrani had ridiculously great minor league numbers as a SP and flew through the process. From a distance he looked like a guy to be excited about, but upon further inspection it became apparent the guy was a one trick pony. Throw out the dominant numbers against inferior competition and what remains is a guy that couldn't pitch. When TC was coming through the system there weren't better options. That's a talent deficit problem.

Since then the club has focused on stockpiling arms. I still see a couple that don't pass inspection, but that's to be expected based on individual ceilings. The next few years are either going to be vindication or an indictment on the Reds research and development.
 

JohnU

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maybe the reds only mistake was projecting quicker evolution / development of their pitching prospects. quality of instruction is the next question, which is a entirely different post, and something i think williams has been addressing. i personally thought and continue to believe that mid 2018 is the cut off point, for many of them, because many are not young anymore - mid 20's - and the reds acquired them in generally the same time frame, which has created a bottleneck.

too often, in the last decade, i've seen a young reds pitcher get to the major leagues and suddenly not trust his stuff. way way too many pitches thrown. way too many pitchers with only two mlb legitmate pitches. imo, those days are receding into the past. double danny darwin's salary today would be my advise. actually, triple it.

i've noticed the same things you guys have with each individual pitcher. the goal is consistency. i, like h-n-r, am willing to be a little patient with that as long as i see improvement and building toward consistent good outings. this is part conjecture on my part, but so far the really successful reds pitchers have come from pensacola under the tutelage of danny darwin. castillo and mahle made their biggest improvements and advances at pensacola. it's where they converted peralta from starter to relief.

i watched a lot of international league play last year, and compared overall team pitching, because it's where the reds made their largest investments. not necessarily money, but in time and effort. there are a lot of factors involved with each mlb team's system and process. i think it's fair to say they all work hard to improve their prospects. it's also fair to say that louisville had very similar raw talent compared to indianapolis, durham, and scranton. which begs the question: why are other teams more successful at development with similar, or lesser rated, pitching talent? one thing I've definitely noticed is other organizations improvement seems more ordered and progress comes in more well defined stages of success. there just seems to be a disconnect between the blue wahoos and the bats. take this with a grain of salt, because it's coming from a fan who is using his eyeballs and not qualified to be giving any organizational pitching advice to anyone at the professional level. when mlb-dot, or any other supposedly qualified organization, ranks mlb team's farm systems they do it on the basis of the sheer number of highly touted or arbitrarily evaluated prospects within the organizations. these rankings never talk about the most important factor involved in such a list: instruction. i don't think peralta, mahle, lopez, and castillo -among others- would be as far along as they are without having been tutored by danny darwin. at this point, from what i've seen, castillo and mahle are the only two prospects that look like legitimate mlb starting pitchers. romano looks like a very good 7th / 8th inning relief power pitcher. i suspect how his change develops will dictate his role. garrett impresses me as a potential pitch to contact starter with k ability in his back pocket.

the reds success hinges on the young pitching prospects. i know that sounds overly simplified, because all teams rely on their pitching. but, the reds are a small market team that must develop it's own pitching to be successful. like all mid / small market teams, they cannot afford any top line mlb starting pitching via free agency. regardless of all the above, i'm relieved to see the reds: 1) have the young pitching talent in abundance, and 2) are using it. the veteran starting pitcher signings of the last 3 or 4 off-seasons were sad and pathetic shells of the their former selves walking, in some cases, limping to the mound. it was actually embarrassing as a reds fan. i'm glad they didn't do that this year.


Important point about all these guys basically being signed at the same time, all the same age and probably all somewhat gifted with a similar skill set. That probably comes from a general principle that when pitching fails, rely on the axiom that you can't ever have too much pitching -- and if we have a dozen of them, we should find 3 or 4 who can win at the top level.

That truly might be happening but if you start out with zero and end up with a dozen guys with all the same skill set, you run into what the Reds are doing. I don't know if I can criticize them on that level. You'd need to go back to the point when the initial number was zero -- presumably around 2006.

I think we all need to be fair, though. The signing of so many young pitchers is not a bad strategy. Drafting and developing are what they are -- the injuries are the intangible that we have had to endure as fans. As is pointed out with Finnegan and Disco, now they are back to March 1 or earlier in getting ready for the season. It's hard to improve in the big leagues if you spend 6 hours a day in a whirlpool and 4 hours a day watching films of what you did wrong that put you on the DL.

These guys are simply treading water. The rest of the league is signing pitchers who are improving on the mound. The Reds are waiting around for their guys to get the OK to throw off a flat surface with a weighted ball. Meanwhile, the solution has been to keep young guys from getting bashed around so as to not ruin their confidence. Instead, sign pitchers like Feldman or Arroyo or Adleman who already know where they've been. They don't mind losing if their job is to plug the gap until Mahle is ready.

But you can't have 3 or 4 of these guys on the roster.

Yeah, lucky SO FAR they haven't relied on this, not until I see Vance Worley get the ball in the 4th game of the season, will I be convinced that plugging in while our young-going-on-older pitchers get clearance to pick up a resin bag. Meanwhile, another June comes and goes and we are told that "in 2019, when this staff is healthy .............."
 

Hit-n-Run

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Mahle a strong 5 IP against a good Cleveland lineup.
 

JohnU

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I see Ollie Perez is still working on some things ... insisting that 19 ERA is a bit out of proportion to his career numbers.
 

Hit-n-Run

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The Reds have extended Suarez for a reported 7 years. Haven't seen a dollar amount.

I was a little surprised when the Reds didn't sign him to an extension similiar to what they did with Tucker Barnhart prior to settling his arbitration case. But it now appears they were working on a deal. I'd assume they were bound by arbitration rule timelines to settle the case while they crossed the t's and dotted the I's on an extension.

I'm surprised at the length of the extension, but thought they should extend him through arbitration years with a couple option years tacked on.
 

JohnU

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The Reds have extended Suarez for a reported 7 years. Haven't seen a dollar amount.

I was a little surprised when the Reds didn't sign him to an extension similiar to what they did with Tucker Barnhart prior to settling his arbitration case. But it now appears they were working on a deal. I'd assume they were bound by arbitration rule timelines to settle the case while they crossed the t's and dotted the I's on an extension.

I'm surprised at the length of the extension, but thought they should extend him through arbitration years with a couple option years tacked on.
It tells me that Senzel isn't going to play 3B. With Dillson essentially not going to make the team, I'd assume they are penciling him in at 2B. Perhaps we see a Scooter trade soon.
 

Hit-n-Run

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There's been a lot of speculation that Senzel might end up at 2nd. Where he plays in AAA should be an indicator of what the club is thinking.

A lot of people aren't sold on Peraza at SS. He's another option at 2nd, but I could see him ending up a UT guy.
 

JohnU

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If Scooter can prove his 17 numbers aren't a fluke (they likely are) he becomes pretty useful. He can't hit lefties, though and he's average on defense. But if his run productionr remains high, he's good to go 4 days a week. I like Peraza more.
 

Hit-n-Run

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They say Peraza has a good work ethic. He's young and still developing so it's too early to know where his ceiling is. If his plate aproach is more like his 2017 second half he'll hit enough to be in the lineup somewhere on the diamond. SS is where the Reds hope he fits.

I think need will dictate how this all shakes out. There's some versatility with Peraza, Suarez, and Senzel. That's a pretty good base to build upon. Suarez is the slower of the three and probably is a better fit at the hot corner.
 

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The Reds pitching or lack thereof was on full display yesterday.

Lorenzen hasn't shown he belongs in the rotation. Bob Stephenson hasn't shown he belongs on the team. Bob gets another shot this weekend.

Price is still auditioning anyone and everyone with less than two weeks until OD. How can Cody Reed be in the mix? When Price likes a guy personally he'll continue to give the guy chances to the detriment of the team. He did that sort of thing with JJ Hoover.

IMO,
The rotation should already be set. Homer by default,
Castillo, Mahle, Romano, and Garrett have earned there spots.
 

JohnU

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I can't begin to impart the joy I feel knowing that none of the projected starters is a rag-arm "innings eater" who throws 60 pitches in 3 innings and qualifies under the definition.

We might all be wishing up a pipe that some of these guys really will develop into reliable big-league pitchers. The league is full of them. About 10 percent are on the Reds roster. I do think they have to give Cody Reed a chance to succeed. Stephenson, maybe not.
 
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