SPRING TRAINING ... the thread

[chico ruiz]

correct h-n-r, and i've been writing and talking about the declining state of the reds organization, for the last 5 years, till my fingers are arthritic and i'm blue in the face. i was kind of mocked and questioned about what this 'plan' was that i occasionally referred to? to me, there was no plan for 2015, 16, or 17, and you just explained it in stark mlb business terms. i tended toward criticizing the man in charge of the overall system. before the reds made their series of trades (some had an air of desperation - transacted in need rather than want) there was virtually nothing in the farm system to replace the impending attrition of players on the reds major league roster.

the reds chose this path, and their media lap dogs -almost in unison- blamed the state of the reds on unfair mlb economics for mid or small market teams. i read this utter nonsense about castellini being a wharton graduate, a winner, and resurrector of a produce distribution company and i can't help but want to loudly boo. good for him. he saved the millionaire family business in the late sixties. what does that have to do with mlb in the new millennium? i don't get it. are he and his underlings beyond reproach? is it even possible they could have made some bad decisions? why people / fans except this as a natural down cycle for a mid market team is beyond me. the extremely short-sighted choo trade is the perfect example of the exact wrong thing to do. the reds gave away gregorius and stubbs for one year and zero prospects. it read like a 90's yankee trade. ditto the trade for latos. the reds brass seriously fucked (not a strong enough word) up by not trading a jay bruce in 2013 for 3,4, maybe 5 prospects, or phillips pre 5/10. the reds brass seriously fucked (again, not a strong enough word) up by not trading 2 of the seven starting pitchers they had after 2012 for prospects. when you think about what the reds could have got back for bailey (the one they decided to sign long-term), cueto, latos, leake, chapman, or simon, in 12 or 13, it makes you wonder if they were thinking at all. why do i say this? because they had damn near nothing in the farm system. the farm system. i can't remember one reds media-type writing even one article on the travesty that was / is the reds farm system. the life blood of a mid market mlb team.

the reds don't have positional (i think i just coined a word) balance in their system. they are, as of now, pitching heavy in their legitimate prospect pool. they've put themselves in the position of having to trade some of that pitching for bats. i don't see a way around that, and my guess is neither does dick williams. if you want to look at mlb team's prospects, look at the mlb top ten at every position. there's a team that has one at every position, except ss, that may be familiar to you.

 

[chico ruiz]

but, i say give these kids a chance. it's not their fault the team / organization is in disarray. i won't criticize these kids at all. no way. i might jeer a little if they miss the cutoff, or pull a 'starlin castro' and completely forget they're playing shortstop in a mlb game. but, otherwise, i'm willing to wait and be patient. what other choice do we have? it's very long season. the reds should be careful with injuries that could parlay into knife cutting. besides, i think they deserve that. they've come into a mishandled and mismanaged organization which, in some ways, could be beneficial to them in terms of expectations. dick williams has as much as said so. i think it will be fun to go to gabp this year. hopefully we'll get to see reed, stephenson, mella, and maybe garrett, at various times during the season. winker, ervin, jagielo, and maybe blandino. high contact percentages with (hopefully) a lot of in-motion play. win 70 games this year. win 80 games next year. everything goes right and play .500+ ball in 2018.

so, i'm not going to proclaim in spring training that cave 'can't hit' while apparently wharton didn't teach the long view, or balancing and maintaining competitiveness. the 2016 reds is what the short term view produces in the 2000's. it's not a new situation. these trends have been crystal clear for well over a decade. more, as h-n-r points out, and i've echoed, it's a basic principle of consistent .500+ ball.

 

[JohnU]

I didn't really want to re-introduce another debate about how the Reds have managed their organization. My latest entry was about the reality of this year's projected rotation being marginally akin to the one the front office has tried to sell to the fans. Young arms, lots of upside, enthusiasm and potential.

That indeed may be what they are, but for the moment, 3/5ths of them can't even answer the bell for April 4, which means that the team will rely on such stellar components as Jonathan Sanchez. In a rebuilding year, that's hardly what I wanted to see and it's hardly fair to the rest of the NL-C that Cincy can't put a quality group of enthusiastic arms on the mound.

But if I am the optimist, I will say that this is a temporary setback and perhaps one wrought of the "Dusty ruins young arms" meme that still hangs over America like a giant beer fart. Clearly, none of these pitchers is Dusty's protege, so I will leave that at ... that.

Looking forward, it would appear that Peraza and Cave will make this roster. Hamilton won't be ready and it seems his injury is worse than they announced. I still have to think that Bruce isn't in a good spot and I'd expect a deal any day. If not by April 5, clearly by the middle of May. I don't know if Cozart's status is clear enough to make a determination.

Mesoraco isn't going to be ready either, so that leaves either Pacheco or Cabrera to back up Barnhart.

It seems this operation has spent a lot of time getting virtually nothing done this spring, opting to give Juan Duran more at-bats than he deserves. Maybe it's a penance issue. Here's what you could have been doing instead of steroids.

In any case, the Reds are framed now ... they can't upgrade because they don't have anything to upgrade with, so we will start the season with a flock of geese who might be ready to succeed or they might be ready to spend another 18 months in rehab. Of the lot, I'd say Lorenzen's most likely to get TJ. Lamb's problem is different.

Iglesias pitched one inning on Monday. But he pitched it. No word on what that means.

Sampson, not a factor, is also hurt.

Jumbo is up to 315 now and hardly sharp, even for Arizona.

 

[chico ruiz]

it's not a debate john. there may be some repetition, but it's anchored in fact, with cement boots and half inch chain coil, at the bottom of the ohio river. it bears repeating because that stale atrophied smell wafting, and then permeating, from the gabp's executive suites the last 8 years is what got the current reds to goodyear or (no) surprise arizona spring training 2016. they need to know we haven't had the wool pulled over our eyes. if the obsequious characters daugherty and 'rosencrantz' are unwilling to tell the real truth of it, then it falls on us. if just one reds executive assistant, or connected employee, bumbles onto this page, it was worth posting again. 1507 put it this way.

"I understand these players want to be better, but most can't. It's not their fault, so I'll refuse to boo them. I wish they introduced the GM so I could boo him."

we know what the current reds reality is, and we know how they got here. it's the reason that many of the posts on this very thread are confused, disjointed, skeptical, uncertain, and mostly cynical. 'how they got here' IS the real story and absolutely deserves, in my opinion, to be retold. it must be.

 

[JohnU]

It may bear repeating as new information is available but it hardly advances the topic inside the thread, which is about spring training. I have no problem discussing the state of the organization, other than there's no new information that transforms it into anything other than a restatement of perceptions.

If that's what every thread degenerates into, then I'd be advised to seek dialogue elsewhere. I've put up dozens of comments about the Reds, baseball at large and ... honestly, I don't have any energy left to bash the Reds front office.

I was hoping folks who watch the team this spring could evaluate what we see, not what we don't see.

 

[JohnU]

Obviously Finnegan has made the rotation, along with Disco and probably Iglesias.
Does Cody Reed get a start or two? Since Lamb isn't ready, somebody has to step up.
Lorenzen to the bullpen?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Looks like a 4 man rotation the first week with Iglesias projected to pitch the end of the second week to maximize his prep time. So 4 SP on the OD roster

Everything I'm hearing suggest Reed is heading to the minors despite pitching well. Why? Haven't heard a good reason. He hasn't pitched above AA, but that's a piss poor reason if that's the deciding factor.
Moscot would be the odd man out if I were deciding.

Bryan Price is at the point in ST where he has to get the rotation stretched out. Other than Iggy, the four pitchers scheduled in upcoming games are DeSclafani, Finnegan, Moscot, and Stephenson. Cody Reed is pitching in a B game Thursday, so he would be the fifth SP competing for the 4 spots on the OD roster.

Jon Sanchez is reportedly still competing for a bullpen spot. I find that shocking for a guy that has been as wild as he has. It speaks to just how poorly the overall bullpen crew has pitched.

 

[JohnU]

Reed will probably start in the minors to slow down the arb clock, is what I heard today. Or at least that's the general thinking. Same with Stephenson.

Somsen appears to be making the pitching staff.

O'Grady will probably make the team.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

If the rotation is DeSclafani, Iglesias (when ready), Finnegan, and Moscot....who is the fifth if Reed and Stephenson are sent to the minors?

Lamb won't be ready until the end of April. Lorenzen probably the same with the strained elbow putting a halt to his preparation and that may be optimistic with them. I don't see another option if it's not Reed or Stephenson.

I think the pitching staff will consist of 4 SP and 8 relievers on OD with Iglesias being added week two.

We're basically at the ST halfway point, so plenty can change.

Here's how I see the position players;

Votto with Duvall backing up 1B, 3B, and musical chairs in LF. Phillips, Cozart, and Suarez as everyday players. DeJesus makes the cut because he doesn't have any options left and the Reds don't have enough options to let him go.

The IF depth is better than recent years, but most are more than a season away. Peraza is ready, but he has options and where he starts the season is partially dependent on who plays CF and the IF general health. Suarez's flexibilty to play 2nd, 3rd, and SS makes assigning Peraza a option until a everyday position opens up. Peraza may end up being the everyday CF if Hamilton's offensive woes continue during the regular season.

The OF is Bruce, Hamilton (if healthy), Duvall, Schebler, and rule 5 pick Cave. Yorman Rodriguez looks like he'll be DFA, probably clear waivers and be re-signed.

Pacheco's (1st, 3rd, and C) value is less with Duvall playing the same corner IF positions. Among the backup catchers Pacheco has hit more, Barnhart and Cabrera have struggled at the plate. Barnhart is a lock based on his defense and offense last season, but I expect him to regress at the plate. Cabrera may be out of options and that may be a factor for the 3rd catcher if Price chooses to keep 3. With Mesoraco being questionable approaching OD, I don't see how they don't keep 3 catchers.

So my picks are as follows: Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Suarez, Duvall, DeJesus, Bruce, Hamilton, Schebler, Cave, Mesoraco, Barnhart, and either Pacheco or Cabrera as a 3rd catcher.

The bullpen is hard to predict.
Boom Boom Hoover and the seven dwarfs. O'Grady is the lefty option they want to keep, he helped his case today. Cingrani is a guy that seems to rub Price the wrong way, but I think he's in. Pedro Villarreal has pitched well this ST, and when you look at his performance last season compared to the overall weak bullpen, he was descent. I give Layne Somsen a good chance if he can finish camp strong. Keyvius Sampson should be on the radar returning from a bicep strain. Drew Hayes has thrown the ball well.

Blake Wood signed a Major League deal which I thought was a bad signing, but he may be this year's version of the "Hopper". Jon Sanchez may be the 2016 Kevin Gregg impersonation. He's walked 7 batters in 4.67 innings with nearly a 2.5 WHIP and it was announced today that he's in contention for a bullpen spot. WTF????? Even Jumbo Diaz can't be worse than those two guys.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Nice analysis by H & R.

I would only add a few things:

It takes extreme balls, or utter stupidity to drop a bonus baby, in order to keep a rule 5 pick. I'm not sure Cave is clear enough value to believe he's an all-year keeper, much less that Yorman is past the age of proving he can't hit yet, IMO he will be claimed if waived. Cave might not be.

I also wouldn't confuse "positional flexibility" with "depth" in the Reds case....meaning it may make Bryan Price calmer during nagging day to day injuries insufficient to DL starters, to have Suarez' and DeJesus' 2b,ss,3b,LF "flexibility" on their baseball resumes, but the fact is, neither of these boys could field dirt with a backhoe.

In DeJesus' case, he makes up for that by not hitting more than .250 with no power or steal speed. IMO, IDJ is on this team because he's the son of a MLB player and after 10 years in the minors, may be more "mature" than every other tryout, but he has no options except to find another MLB team (tough, because this is one of the easiest MLB teams to make), go back to the minors, or try coaching. Pitifully, he's not close to Miguel Cairo....I might dump IDJ, and keep Peraza. He CAN field, and hasn't spent 10 yrs. in the minors learning to be a .245 hitting defensive liability that can look bad at 5 positions. Injuries are likely, but thin talent level and worse depth make sending Peraza down look like a policy gimmick or a money saver.

...like sending the best SP in camp (Reed) back to AAA because he hasn't played there yet and his ARB/FA clock sets back one year.

Pacheco's value is enhanced by the fact that Mesoraco still isn't ready, and may never be, if he has to squat 200 times a start. I hate to say it because they don't have a better option, but Suarez is no lock at 3b, hence Duvall's (more deserving) relevance. Pacheco is a 3rd option at 3 positions, and given the Reds unthinkable bafoonery last year, keeping a crippled Mesoraco on the roster for weeks before putting him on the DL, they might prefer another catcher....maybe because the OF or Util INF they might keep instead may not to hit any better than Pacheco would anyway. In odd contrast, Price won't consider Mesoraco as a LF candidate, even though NONE of the other "legit" OF in the LF competition will ever be considered a MLB cleanup hitter, as is Mesoraco if he can play without a perpetual hip and groin issue....any more than Peraza will get a 3b consideration, simply because they've never done it in a MLB game before. Honestly, if the Reds had acted on moving Phillips back to his original SS position when he was too young and un-established to refuse, the Reds would have avoided the last decade of disappointment at SS, and Peraza would be starting this year.

Hindsight is 20:20, but the way forward shouldn't be stone blind either. Juan Duran is getting regular PT in LF, but he isn't allowed to play for 80 games due to PED's. I don't get it.

The pitching staff is a shambles. They have bright young prospects, with sore arms because they largely have 130 IP stamina, without the MLB veteran presence to not get PED tested. They might need a 9 man starting rotation this year to fill a full MLB season of innings. The bullpen, sadly, won't have to be very good this year because they won't be blowing OR saving many leads, no matter how they pitch.

Losing, isn't a prerequisite to winning, no matter what the Reds try to tell us. Rebuilds are more often a result of faulty construction, than erosion.

I think it sucks, but am bolstered by faith that this too, will pass. Not that I believe this Reds organization has the ability or vision to make it great again, or everyone else's 25th best prospect the Reds got in trade for MLB All-Stars are going to revive greatness any time soon, just that if everyone dies when they are supposed to, I may outlive most of the idiots running the team, so I am hopeful the next time the Reds have talent to win, they don't pin closing the deal on crusty old incompetent blowhards like Dusty Baker and Walt Jocketty.

 

[JohnU]

I don't know exactly how the arb clock works but it could be that Reed and Stephenson can spend a month in Lousyville and be ready to throw 100 innings or so. That could be about the time Lamb is back, if his problems are simply stamina. Bailey is a mid-May returnee, so this might be less confusing than we think.

Hell, they might give Cingrani a couple of starts. He's at least done it.

As for quality of the pitching, I suppose we can say ... who cares? It's not like this team plans on contending.

One of the problems with young pitchers is young catchers. Barnhart suddenly became a veteran. His value may be understated.

To some end, I don't think the offense is going to be measurably worse this year than last year, which is like asking if you'd rather be shot or hanged.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

In Wednesday nights game Jake Cave came to bat without a numbered game jersey, probably still wearing his warm up jersey.

I guess he's never heard the bench players mantra "always be ready, you never know when you're number will be called".

It won't be if you're not wearing one.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Moscot became the latest SP to be scratched due to injury. But Tim Adelman filled in nicely.....not!

He makes Jon Sanchez look like a upgrade.

 

[eburg5000]

I just saw the 1st 3 innings, It was pretty sloppy for being more than half way through spring, even for minor leaguers. but to they're defense. AZ was hitting missiles off Abelman

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Hard to catch much of those 9 o'clock games. Don't know that anyone needs to see more than 3 innings of that game before your bed starts calling your name.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Off topic

I see John dropped the Purple Aces avatar. They had a great season, it's a shame they didn't get a invite to the NCAA or the NIT after a 25 win season.

 

[JohnU]

Aces were the victims of the system that rewards the top teams for not having to play road games. They were also the guilty of the same sin, playing SWAC teams over and over again, all at home. Easy wins over teams that travel because it's better on the road than at home. In the end, they should have made the NIT ahead of somebody like Hofstra, mainly because it would have been a better gate.

Here's Jake Cave without a number.

 

[JohnU]

Off the Reds report, which I suppose anybody could read but doesn't have to now. The story also says that the Reds could go trash-picking on the waiver wire, which might be the best option. It looks more like Lorenzen is going on the DL. I think they will mysteriously wait until a certain date and put him on Dr. Krenchakinstein's table.
So ........... a 3-15 start might be what we get here.

Tim Melville? WTF?

*
Where it gets real interesting is with prospects Robert Stephenson and Cody Reed. Both have pitched well this spring, but their service time would start if they made the team. Waiting a few weeks to call them up would extend their eligibility for free agency down the road for another season. Stephenson the Reds' No. 2 prospect, has a half a season of Triple-A experience, and Reed is ranked third by MLBPipeline.com, with a half-season of Double-A on his resume.

Tim Melville and Jonathan Sanchez, both signed to Minor League deals as free agents in the offseason, are also in the mix. If neither of them works out, perhaps a possibility is using projected long reliever Keyvius Sampson, who just got over right triceps soreness.

 

[JohnU]

Meanwhile this report on the Reds

FARM SYSTEM

 

[Redsfan1507]

Thanks John.

It's nice the Reds are optimistic about the farm, just in case they have no butts in the seats at the big venue. Something to hang your hat on.

I too, think the Reds have plenty of young talent, and the probability of more in the coming years, probably the only benefit of being among the dregs of MLB....the concern in my mind is, can the Reds make anything of that talent ?

There are a HOF roster of homegrown Reds talent in my nearly 50 year Reds memory, but rarely have they put it together to win something of consequence, since the BRM....and I have repeatedly (because it amazes me so much) brought up the fact the Reds haven't had a single homegrown OF that could manage to hit at least .260 in back to back 500 AB seasons in about 30 years. Not one.

That many players failing all those years to get a bat on a baseball at only the MLB average, has to speak to inability to produce them, rather than other excuses (bad draft picks, trading them off before they get to the Reds, injuries, pandemics or natural disasters).

Whatever they've been doing, IMO, that metric says they've been doing it wrong. I'd LOVE to see an organization wide, minor league instructional staff, coaches, managers and big league staff on the same page in regard to a fundamentally sound hitting philosophy. Hey, I know that sounds old school- but the "common core" of modern coaching- you know, "if you don't like coaches suggestions, just do whatever "feels good" to you (the hitter) and we'll take whatever you give us", just doesn't work unless the kids are studs that don't need much coaching.

At least that's the way I have seen it in the Reds organization for a few decades. How do guys like Drew Stubbs and Billy Hamilton get to MLB lacking the ability to bunt, missing the baseball completely 25-30% of the time, and hitting the ball in the air and inside the park, 60-70% of the time they do make contact ? On the other hand, I've seen Jay Bruce degrade to that level. Why ? Because no one else competing with them does any better. Nothing gets better with lower standards. Kids shouldn't graduate High School without ability to read, write, do math, and understand a little economics and social skills. Reds graduate without equivalent core baseball disciplines routinely. It's a disgrace.