SPRING TRAINING ... the thread

[eburg5000]

Mesoraco is having a "little" problem with his groin. They say its nothing, but they said that last year too. Cozart is behind schedule, and so is Hamilton. Is anyone healing on this team

 

[eburg5000]

Mesoraco is having a "little" problem with his groin. They say its nothing, but they said that last year too. Cozart is behind schedule, and so is Hamilton. Is anyone healing on this team

 

[Redsfan1507]

Cozart is running out of body parts. An elbow, and a knee in what, 3-4 seasons ? I think Peraza is going to get a long look this spring, if Cozart is gimpy, and especially if Hamilton also looks like he's still allergic to base hits. Peraza can play CF too, and IMO, anyone that can play SS,2b, and CF could also play 3b and LF, too.

The best Mesoraco can do with the Reds nearsighted mindset that he can only catch, means about 110 games -or far less than 400 AB's- If he's totally healthy. That's a shame, because the Reds need a guy that can hit 25+ HR with a chance to do it hitting above .220 doing. If he's not healthy, I suppose it doesn't matter that much, unless Barnhart falls back to hitting what everyone expected him to. The Reds have lots of bodies to look at in the OF I suppose, but given the fact they haven't had much success with OF 's that can get the bat on the ball regularly, I'd have given Mesoraco some opportunities to jog down some flyballs instead of squatting 200 times a day behind the plate, on that repaired hip. Just saying.

Hamilton has a gimpy shoulder, supposedly just sore after surgery...(Did Kremchek do his surgery ?) Billy's biggest injury is his inability to hit a baseball. He needs to bunt 150 times a year, IMO. Don't need much shoulder for that.

Haven't heard much on Bailey, but I think May 1 might be about right for him.

...and I'm behind schedule healing too. My ass is still chapped that the Reds big comeback resulted in zero home post season wins, and the same number of PS series wins, of course... THAT is what resulted in the Reds having to sell off for another 2 decade makeover ? Wow.

That said, there will probably be a few pleasant surprises among all these youngsters. I actually prefer that to half a dozen of Dusty's washed up ex-Cubs and an equal number of Walt's washed up ex-Cardinals in camp.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

When you consider the severity of the injuries Bailey, Mesoraco, and Cozart suffered, I don't think they're running behind schedule as much as everything we're being told should've been expected.

Hamilton's surgery was described as a cleaning up of the shoulder. It gives the illusion that it was minor surgery, but any shoulder surgery to the capsule adds scar tissue to a capsule that the presence of friction is nearly impossible to eradicate once damaged. Discomfort caused by throwing isn't a good sign. I'll be surprised if he's on the OD roster.

We can add Iglesias to the list of guys that aren't up to speed yet. Shoulder fatigue and a subsequent off season shoulder flexibility program is the assigned reason. He's already 26 years old which makes me wonder if he'll blow through his prime before he can pitch a full season, if he ever does. Hard telling how many miles he already has on his arm. His current projection is the 2nd week of the season.

Given the fact Iglesias hasn't pitched yet, Desclafani is the only SP that seems a lock for OD. The 1st week they'll only need 4 with days off making a 5th unnecessary until the second time though the roration. Lorenzen, Finnegan, and Moscot may be the early favorites in Bryan Price's mind. Moscot scuffled a bit last time out, but they'll give him the opportunity to pitch himself in or out of the rotation. IMO, Stephenson, Reed, and a few of the veterans are plan B at this early stage of the season.

Haven't been hearing much about John Lamb.

John mentioned Layne Somsen:
Not a over powering guy, but has deception in his delivery. He's like so many of the Reds pitching prospects in that his command isn't great. He was 23 before he threw his first professional pitch, which has prompted the Reds to move him along quicker than the normal snails pace we so often see. He has been up to the task with each promotion, hopefully he does it one more time.

 

[chico ruiz]

excellent post (#39) 1507. i could not agree more and have been yammering on about it for over 5 years as i watched other teams (contenders & non-contenders) building, or already having in place, formidable systems. how does a team lose 3 starting pitchers and remain competitive? their farm system. how does a team keep upgrading their roster? they don't. what they have is a strong farm to keep them close to even. sustained success? the farm system. the farm system. the farm system. instruction. development. if nothing else, i think dick williams is being honest -without blatantly verbalizing how screwed they are- about the obvious improvement that must take place at Billings, Pensacola, Dayton, Daytona, and Louisville. he knows what the problem is.

what this says to me is, jocketty was hired to make the reds as successful as possible, with existing talent during his tenure, focused almost exclusively on the mlb level (trade for plug-ins, FA signings, promote o'brien & krivsky draftees). i assume that other reds execs looked on in horror at was happening on the farms compared to just about every other mlb organization. why and how a mid market mlb organization would ignore this vitally important aspect of continuity, stability, prospectus defining (sustainable .500+ competitiveness) basic organizational evolutionary synthesis is a great question and one for the reds ages.

highlighting 1507's point a bit more, and following up on wvu_man's sad, "I have watched losing season after losing season for many years so I'm pretty much used to that" post. do you know how many losing seasons the reds had between 1961 and 1981? answer: 2. only two losing campaigns in 21 seasons. most reds fans are surprised when i pose that question. it's one of the most successful stretches in mlb history. why were they successful for such a long period of time? the farm system.

dewitt (mostly remembered for the robinson - pappas trade) had the reds in contention almost every year because he focused on an already productive farm system. he drafted bench. he drafted mcrae. here's a quote from hal that makes another point about the past reds farms better than i ever could.
Q: "You were more aggressive on the bases than most players. Where did you learn that style?"
McRae: "I was like that my whole life, even in sandlot ball. At Florida A&M, my baseball coach, Costa Kittles, was also the offensive and defensive end coach on the football team. He had an influence on me. I was drafted and signed by the Reds, and in their Minor League system we played that way. I patterned myself after the way Pete Rose played."

howsam ensured that the fruitful cincinnati farm system continued to churn out young position players, such as concepcion, griffey sr., knight, carbo, gullet, eastwick, mcenaney, zachry, oester, and more. these players were drafted and developed while the reds were being extremely successful on mlb fields. but chico, this was while there was economy of scale and before free agency. that is correct, but this basic tenet (vital importance of a strong farm system) in professional baseball has never really changed.

1971 was an interesting disaster and made 2011 downright understandable and palatable. jim merritt fell apart after winning 20 games in 1970. wayne simpson tried, but was effectively done as a mlb pitcher. ross grimsley had a good rookie season, but bobby tolan missed the season with a ruptured achilles. johnny bench's rbi total dropped 87 from 1970. i'm gong to stop here, because i could write continuously ad nauseam on reds history, and it would bore the hell out of most posters. regardless, the farm system. the farm system. the farm system.

 

[eburg5000]

I'm just a little skeptical when I hear about Reds injuries. They always end up being much worse than they say. Its been this way for about 5 years now. So forgive me for being negative.
On the brighter side. Suarez and Erwin are hitting the cover off the ball so far in ST. But I wonder even if Ervin would hit this well all through ST if the Reds would give him a chance, Probably not.

Sometimes I wonder if the same people who are running the Cleveland Browns are also running the Reds. They're are some similarities.

 

[JohnU]

Part of the injuries issue is how each franchise chooses to share that information. Much of the short-scale stuff that some roto-media releases is aimed at fantasy league owners who are trying to build rosters. That established, who knows what's up? For a player who came to came off the DL, there's no reason to be in a rush. That's why ST is as long as it is.

And in the case of the Reds, I think the MO is to just not push it since winning is only a 7-letter word this year.

I am a bit puzzled at the sudden shoulder issue with Iglesias.

 

[JohnU]

do you know how many losing seasons the reds had between 1961 and 1981? answer: 2. only two losing campaigns in 21 seasons. most reds fans are surprised when i pose that question. it's one of the most successful stretches in mlb history. why were they successful for such a long period of time? the farm system.

It is conceivable, looking at history, that the Reds could (or should) have won pennants in 8 of the years between 1961 and 1981. Leaving out the other years isn't meaningful ... just that the years I mention were close calls or divisional titles.

It's odd that 1981 seems to be **the** turning point ... all the way up to 1990.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I get the feeling the Reds always spin injuries with an eye on the attendance gate. Kinda like a political speech- all info kinda makes my ass hurt a little.

Of course I imagine any surgery is a complex task-and damage can't always be made new again, and the reason they call it a medical "practice" is nothing is guaranteed, but I don't see a ton of evidence the Reds med staff has a long list of successes. Maybe that's the routine case with every team, but a thin roster makes each incident more apparent.

I'm kind of torn about the rebuild- I do prefer youth over no upside rental vets, with a proviso; I would like to see some signs that kids that made it to the big club have a clue about how to get wood on the ball, see that hitting behind the runner is valuable, and that getting a bunt down doesn't just apply to pitchers. Hitting a cutoff man is important even in a small park, and throwing strikes with something besides a fastball is required.

 

[JohnU]

I'd say Yorman is gone and Peraza is in. I don't think this pitching staff is anything close to having a clue. I am expecting a surprise or two since Lamb, Iglesias, Bailey and Sampson are still not ready to go. Gotta wonder if the Reds are going to toss the dice on Stephenson or give him another run at Triple-A. I'd say the Bats is his first stop.

Layne Somsen might be the real deal.
So is Jonathan Sanchez.

 

[Redsfan1507]

It often doesn't last, but one advantage to pitchers we've not heard much about, don't have a ton of MLB scouting reports available. In fact, I question the availability or good it does when available, of MLB scouting- more K's now, than ever. When a guy like Mike Fiers can get 180 K a year, something's wrong with hitters.

 

[Redsfan1507]

One problem with so many young guys in camp is, you have to pick some for OD. The old addage is don't weigh too heavily what happens in early spring or late summer. That's fine when interviewing for one or two spots, but the reality is that this team may have 6-8 spots, that may have to be sent back, others brought up, rinse, repeat...using up those minor league limited options. That's one way to lose some of that upper level talent, without really wanting to. Remember Homer Bailey as a not ready for prime time player until he had no options left ? Luckily that year, better performance and a convenient DL sting saved him...long enough for a couple no hitters and a fat contract...before TJ.

It's a problem.

 

[JohnU]

And as we learned, it sometimes is not about mechanics. Moscot is a year behind schedule because he was stupid.

 

[JohnU]

Winker, from what I see, seems to have a decent idea about playing right field. Just thought I'd mention that.

Looks like Sanchez might need to consider opening a bar and grill.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Homer Bailey should be seen as a cautionary tale for teams that have accelerated developmental agendas based on team needs rather than the prospects actual mental and physical maturity. In Homer's case some of the optional assignments were more related to mental inmaturity rather than physical readiness.

But Homer had more than his share of injury related rehab assignments. Since 2010 he's been on the DL 6 times and that's a lot when you consider he went from June 2011 thru August 2014 fairly healthy. That run of good health led to the big payday and we all know "The rest of the story" as the late Paul Harvey used to say.

Imo, Pitchers gain more from scouting reports than the hitter. But even then scouting reports are only as effective as the pitchers ability to consistently execute it. The pitcher that finds the middle of the plate with a 0-2 offering doesn't fall into that category.

A scouting report is useless to Jon Sanchez, what he needs is a flight schedule. Zero command equals zero chance of making the club

For the hitter it's more about seeing the ball. If the batter can't decipher the difference between fastball and slider before it reaches the hitting zone..... reading about it or watching film ain't gonna help.

Winker looks like he'll hit, but he's slow with a not so great arm. Most scouts seem to like him in LF. The thing I notice most is even his outs are well struck. It would seem that good things happen when you consistently put the barrel on the ball..... imagine that.

 

[JohnU]

On Winker, I think he can replace Bruce adequately. It's hard to tell who would be the right fielder if Bruce is dealt. Winker apparently will start the year in AAA.

Bruce is no gazelle and his reputation precedes his skill. In fact, his defense has been terrible the last 2 years.

Compared to other right fielders, it's probably a wash. Nobody is being thrown out at third base anyhow, except Reds runners who don't get a good jump.

Sanchez probably pitched himself out of the mix against the Giants, as did O'Grady.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I see Lorenzen has been scratched from today's start due to elbow soreness.

They may release Sanchez instead of assigning him to AAA. No upside there.

O'Grady will get another look because of his contract status. He'll have to pitch better or he'll be back in the Angel's farm system.

If Bruce was or is dealt I think it would open the door for Schebler to play RF. Not that I'm that high on him, but someone has to stand out there.

 

[JohnU]

Schebler is a cheaper strikeout, for sure.

Gotta wonder about these elbow soreness problems. Does this stuff just happen in the middle of shaving?

 

[chico ruiz]

i think rodriquez is the best defensive alternative in RF. as far as the best offensive alternative for RF, i'm with john on this one. i'm not a religious man. in fact, baseball is probably as close as i get to it. so, let me put it this way, and i sincerely hope not to offend anyone.

dear lord or lords (doubleday -dubious as you may be-, mother earth elysian fields, cartwright & other early documentarians / theoreticians, and the wright bros. - not the ones from dayton),
would you please let just one of the reds outfielder prospects (winker, rodriquez, ervin, aquino, schebler, cave, waldrop, etc) develop into an above average offensive mlb player? please hear my plea. i'll start lent again. i'll carry some beads around, kneel on a rug with no shoes on, or smell the glove, if necessary. whatever it takes, within reason.

 

[JohnU]

I will defer on comment.