SPRING TRAINING ... the thread

[JohnU]

OK, pitchers and catchers have found their way past the immigration stations and are allegedly in Goodyear.
One wonders.

First reports from John Fay are encouraging. Almost all the new guys are ... new.

FAY'S REPORT

Despite this "early stages" of rebuilding, it would appear that most spots on the big-league roster are already filled in.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The problem with new is it's not always better.

The Reds have a "new" LF every other year. Other than the black hole in LF the starting position players are returning players. Votto, Phillips, Cozart, and Suarez slides over to replace Frazier. Mesoraco returns behind the dish with Hamilton and Bruce rounding out the OF with whomever they decide among the numerous candidates is the guy/s in LF. With the amount of guys they say are in competition for LF one would think the Reds are loaded with OF depth. The sad reality is a lot of the guys contending for LF shouldn't even be in the major league camp.

They have two rule 5 draft picks that they might keep that have to stay on the 25 man roster. OF Jake Cave and P Chris O'Grady. They signed Blake Wood to a Major League deal which is probably worse than signing Jonathan Sanchez to a minor league deal. There's three guys that may be on the OD roster that are questionable.

The bull pen is probably the hardest to predict. The rotation is more clear, but I don't see the projected 5 of DeSclafani, Iglesias, Moscot, Lorenzen, and Finnegan as keepers moving forward. The bench will most likely suck..... So that's nothing "NEW".

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I like Iglesias and Disco Tony is a descent back of the rotation SP, but I see Lorenzen and Finnegan in bull pen roles eventually. Moscot, I'd be surprised if he has the staying power to remain a SP. IMO, Lamb is a loogy and Sampson is a waiver.

 

[JohnU]

Inevitable rotation of Disco, Iglesias, eventually Bailey, Lamb and Moscot ... not sure if this is a durable rotation or something out of the early 2000s. Rookie Davis?

I got the hunch that Duvall would stay on the big club in LF. One assumes that Bruce is still on the block but he's kind of in a make or break situation. The Reds no longer need Bruce.

We have to hope that Price has some plans for Mesoraco on days he doesn't catch. The best offensive guy from the right side of the plate needs more than 15 ABs a week.

Peraza probably won't make the big club.

I think we have all assumed Suarez will move to 3B. That's not a given, IMO. He has no other spot on the team unless Cozart just completely fucks the puppy. If Suarez is the SS, I'd add another 4 losses to the record.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I agree Peraza will probably end up in Louisville where he can play everyday. Phillips declining to be traded sealed that deal IMO. I think DeJesus will be the utility IF guy to start the season.

I think everyone assumes Suarez at 3B or maybe LF down the road. Not because he's a great option, but because the options are slim. Duvall plays corner IF, but is a even weaker defensive player than Suarez. I don't see DeJesus as a option and I'd be surprised if Peraza was. I don't think any of the names I listed are the future at LF or 3B.

I'm not as sold on Mesoraco as some. He hit. 271 in 2014, but his BA was mid .230's his last 300+ AB's. He got off to a hot start and faded the last 5 months. Once again the current options are poor and he does remain a better RHB option than the other candidates in LF. He has a history of hamstring issues and the torn labrum in his hip last year. I'm not sure he's durable enough to catch and play OF on off days.

 

[JohnU]

Looking at Schebler's numbers just now ... another whiffaholic in the making ... I'd say he has a fair chance to play left field, as does practically everybody in the Reds farm system.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

A platoon seems inevitable in LF. Whether it's Yorman or Duvall from the RH and Cave, Schebler LH. The one thing that is for certain is LF will strike out a ton. I'd rather see Winker sink or swim. ....the other four fall into the sink or stink category. It'd be great "if" one of those guys exceeded my expectations, but that's a iffy if at best.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Day one has come and gone...didn't hear of any unforeseen new injuries.

I think we'll find out early who Price favors for the open slots. It was evident last spring from the start that Marquis, Gregg , Boesch, and Dominguez were all going to make the club. With talent evaluation like that there's little to worry about moving forward.....right?

 

[JohnU]

Marquis was just a filler that the team needed before Blackwell's elbow healed.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Now I see the problem, they were waiting on "The Whip" and he's been dead for twenty years.

I agree on the notion Marquis was a bridge to Bailey's return and how ever much longer his performance dictated, but in the end the Reds still got 100+ starts from rookies. A bad plan isn't really a plan.... it's wishing.

Barring injury DeSclafani would be the only SP projected to pitch a full season. Bailey's late start and Lamb's being behind schedule aids the situation a bit allowing them to pitch later into the season. But injuries to pitchers isn't a recipe for solving the innings problems the club faces either. I still haven't heard anyone in the organization explain how they're going to address the issue.

The inability to solve problems that are visible well in advance is how this club got in the situation they're currently in.

The bull pen might reguire a program to figure out who's sitting out there. Hoover may be the only guy that is a lock. Diaz, Cingrani, Blake Wood, and maybe Cotham might be front runners. Then there's the rule 5 pick Chris O'Grady, they have to keep him or throw him back. At some point some of the current projected SP are going to have to take on bull pen roles. Whether it's to conserve innings or a permanent role change.

Dayan Diaz might be a dark horse to make the pen. Similar to Jose Arredondo with a history of injury slowing his progression. More likely he is assigned and has to earn his way onto the club with a bigger sample size.

There's a guy that fell off the radar,
Jose Arredondo?

 

[JohnU]

Arredondo, as far as I remember, became something of a mental case. He's probably slinging hashballs in Venezuelan Leagues now.

Reds are indicating Sampson will go to the pen ... no surprise.

But I agree that the obvious problem a year ago was how to turn 6 or 7 rookie starters into guys who could give them 200 innings. So far, I see a couple of guys who can do that -- Disco and maybe Iglesias. If an average start is going 100 pitches in 4 innings, that means the 5-6-7-8 innings are going to be pitched by a bullpen that is largely a blue-light special at Kmart.

Hoover doesn't figure to be the problem, does he?

 

[JohnU]

Former Reds are joining the Nationals in droves. They like them some Dusty.

Burke Badenhop
Matt Belisle
Nick Masset
Neftali Soto ... all getting minor league contracts.

And Bronson was already on board.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Who knows... who will wind up on the opening day roster. There are more real openings than in several years, and although it may not work out better, I'm relieved we don't have a 37 year old $8M LF in camp this year.

Lf will probably be a platoon, because frankly, none of the LF candidates are everyday studs.

Peraza may make the team, if he hits, because he can play every position DeJesus can play, only better. There are no guarantees Cozart or Suarez will blossom, or BP won't start his inevitable decline this year. I like Peraza's chances.

The real problem is, several players that should be playing for their position, are locks- Jay Bruce, Billy Hamilton and Cozart...don't hit enough to be regulars on most winning teams.

The pitching is going to be bitter medicine, folks. Bailey won't be back until May, and somehow, has to become the #1 SP he's been pegged as for almost a decade. Iglasias may be a stud in 2 years, Desclafani could be the next Bronson Arroyo, and other have skills, but they aren't going to excel at the start of the learning curve, this year. Lorenzen looked horrible at the end. Finnegan was up and down, but as a lefty, he's probably going to get a rotation spot. The bullpen is a total crapshoot.

 

[JohnU]

Experts are not deeming the Reds a 101-loss team because they just want to. The metrics all yell it out.

As fans, we have to hope for a miracle season by players whose careers suggest everything but that. We all know that if Hamilton's OBP is anything better, the Reds will score runs. The metrics show that his OBP is what it is and won't change. Billy didn't learn to bunt this year since he didn't learn to bunt LAST year.

But we are fans and there is a Jim O'Toole waiting to have his moment.

End of the day, I would just like to be able to say that my MLB.tv subscription was worth it.

 

[Tubbs1518]

I expect the Reds to lose a lot this year......and maybe I'm in the minority, but I'm ok with that. I don't mind a down year, I don't mind these rookies going out there and taking their lumps. Now what I do mind is not seeing them get any better as the year progresses. I think we have some players that are really talented, but whether the coaching can get them to be what they can be, that is my main worry and I have no faith in this coaching staff. Should be an interesting year.

 

[JohnU]

They won't get better. Hamilton and Bruce did not get better and the pitchers did not improve over the winter wishing. If they could be better over the winter, why is winter so important?

 

[JohnU]

Reds seemed a bit befuzzled about where to play Jose Peraza ... now that it appears Bruce really is going to be traded, I suppose they can give Suarez some innings in the outfield and move Jose to 3rd base. That would make sense but it would still not allow the annual lets-platoon-four-veterans in LF.

 

[eburg5000]

I thought I read some where that Pereza has played centerfield, It wouldn't be that hard for him to play right if that is true. But then if that were true you would think they would be talking about him playing left. So......

 

[JohnU]

Peraza doesn't bring much long-ball bat to the offense, and I doubt Price and Wutzhisfuck, the hitting coach, will be crisp enough between the ears to adapt to small ball. This team will score about 2.9 runs per 9 ... with a rotation giving up about 4.6 per 9, the math is pretty clear. JJ Hoover will get 45 saves of the 55 games the Reds win.

 

[JohnU]

OWE EM GEEEEEEE ... Carlos Marmol signs with the Red Sux and our pal

MANNY PARRA is with the Cubs!

Heaven can wait!