SPRING TRAINING ... the thread

[eburg5000]

Has anyone else noticed that while other teams are getting they're starters ready for the season buy letting them go 4 to 6 innings The Reds are lucky to get 3 inning out of their starters. Also they have been giving up bunches of runs late. They seem to be way behind other teams in pitching. On the brighter side, The offense seems to be scoring a lot of runs.

 

[eburg5000]

Has anyone else noticed that while other teams are getting they're starters ready for the season buy letting them go 4 to 6 innings The Reds are lucky to get 3 innings out of their starters. Also they have been giving up bunches of runs late. They seem to be way behind other teams in pitching. On the brighter side, The offense seems to be scoring a lot of runs.

 

[eburg5000]

That was not near interesting enough of a question to post twice

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Chico has entered the Twilight Zone with the Billy Mumy reference. Keeping in the syfy realm of humor and crossing over to Lost in Space I'd imagine the robot would have sounded the "Danger Will Robinson!" alarm prior to the Reds reaching this point.

 

[chico ruiz]

yes h-n-r, i have. i love the city and the team. you know how it is, growing up in cincinnati when we did. there was a camaraderie and collective connection. it's hard to describe to someone who wasn't into baseball. my best friend's mom was a rosy red. hat and all. i went with her and my friend to a lot of opening days. i got to see / hear jackie robinson and then hank aaron hit #714. hell, virtually all my friends were reds fans. my entire family. my grandfather would drive to chicago to see reds games in the fifties. he would drive to comiskey occasionally just so he could see ted williams hit a baseball. my grandmother listened to every game with a sixer and a pack of salems. she never got drunk and never got cancer. she died at 97 when she got t-boned. the reds were on the radio when it happened. i could go on and on. a lot of beautiful generational history h-n-r.

it is a part of the fabric of my life. sounds corny, but it's undeniable. growing up in cincinnati, summers, my house, the neighborhood, most of the city: the most asked question. how did the reds do? that's why i like this board. it's a interesting simulacrum of those days.

juxtapose that with contemporary reds baseball, and you can see my frustration. there's no resentment or martyrdom in my comments at all. i just have some questions, because these guys are starting to screw with tradition. the reds have had losing seasons before, but these next few years are setting up to be historic in a way we've never seen.

mr. burg, desclafani will probably throw 70-80 pitches today. iglesias's pitch count is very low for a projected starter this far into ST. i know he was on a shoulder strengthening regiment. finnegan only threw 19 pitches last time out, but the diamondbacks were lighting him up. these guys usually follow-up in the bullpen with the requisite number of pitches to stretch and build. i look for good things from finny. he's been there / done that. i don't believe he's thrown much over 100 innings in any season yet. baseball people i've talked to, had him in the bullpen with most teams. but, what do they know? i think he has the mental strength to be a starter. it's a great opportunity for him. he probably won't want to waste it, and i get the impression he thinks of himself as a starter. moscot and lamb are way behind. the barely good news on them is, they've both pitched over 150 innings in a season recently, and their injuries appear near resolution. simon? i have no idea how built up he is. apparently, he was throwing in the dominican leading up to the reds signing him. he pushed 200 innings the last 2 years. you never know, but that's your reds projected starters for april and may.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Chico
There is a lot of great subject matter/questions in your post ending with the Bill Mumy reference. I've been on the run the past couple days and haven't found adequate time to respond.

I think some of it would be easier to discuss on its own thread. At times I think some great subject matter gets overlooked when combined into one thread.

The Billy Mumy reference was a good one.

 

[chico ruiz]

copy that h-n-r. i am intimately acquainted with the hump bustin side of life. take your time with responding. i completely understand. i was going to reference burgess meredith and the ob-so-lete man episode, but billy always scared the crap out of me. the 'it's a good life' episode seemed fitting because it was in a fictitious ohio town that involved a cornfield. very loose connections -i grant you- but i'm in standby mode quite a bit. i start typing and all hell breaks loose, but i will make an effort to give headings when i diverge. which, i'm aware, happens often. it's good that you done that h-n-r. it's real good that you done that.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

On the subject of the ST starting pitchers.

If we were filling out a multiple choice questionnaire on which SP's were ready for OD, my answer would be:
F. None of the above

As Chico mentioned they're getting their allotted pitch count during the game and or additionally in the bullpen. But it's looking like deja vu when it comes to innings pitched from the rotation.

The Reds have been drafting college closers and acquiring other team's prospects with the notion they could fix these guys when others couldn't. Early evidence suggest they're clueless in their attempts to do so. The guy that threw the ball the best this week is the guy they haven't been coaching.

The difference in talent and skill is hardwork. I believe the players are working hard, so there's either a deficiency in talent or coaching. I'd suggest the coaching staff start squirreling some money away for a cold winter.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Chico asked a few questions earlier.

TV deal
The team most often compared with the Reds is San Diego. If you look at other team's local TV deals, it usually provides about 25% of a team's revenue. The Reds would currently be on the low end of that spectrum, so doubling up is possible. The current state of noncompetitiveness isn't going to help, but with teams signing 15-20 year agreements the Reds can sell the rebuild easier. A rival bidder like TWC would really help. Most recent deals include equity sharing type incentives. If the regional provider makes money, so does the team. So it incentivizes a team to be competitive for the life of the agreenent. But it also increases the gap between the big market and smaller market teams. Equity sharing is viewed as ownership in the regional provider and is not subject to revenue sharing. The bigger your individual deal the bigger your equity share.

Revenue
The Royals won the WS with a similiar budget to the Reds, so it can be done on a mid-market budget. The Royals drafted and acquired players that fit the blueprint. When I look at the Reds acquisitions, I'm not sure they have a plan. They seem to acquire players first and worry about the plan later.

Season ticket cost
The cost hasn't changed much in recent years. I still have my ticket stub from the last game at Crosley. A box seat cost $1.50, it's changed a lot since then....$42 today.

The Reds do a nice job marketing and creating a fan friendly atmosphere at GABP. Most of the upgrades are paid for by the Reds. Unlike Crosley Field, the Reds don't own the ballpark, Hamilton County does.
It was built using funds from a voter approved tax increase. If the Reds could get the baseball operations on par with the marketing we'd have something special.

 

[eburg5000]

I figure around mid May, GABP will be a neutral park at best. When we play the Cubs it will be like a road game. Probably some other teams as well.
I was hoping the Reds wouldn't be as bad as I thought they would be, but looking at the scores in spring training games. Well its been almost 2 weeks sense the last time they held the other team to less than 7 runs. Yes I know its spring training and pitchers work on different pitches and they may keep them in games longer because the games don't count. BUT.....

 

[Redsfan1507]

Gotta take ST with a grain of salt sometimes. Rookies and last chance guys seem to hit better when motivated by the upcoming roster cut... and when fed 80% fastballs and the occasional out pitch far from perfected, often from pitchers that are going down themselves. Go figure. I'm sure this offense has to be worse than last year, primarily because of the loss of Frazier. Votto might walk 300 times this year, and BP couldn't hit 30 HR in 2 seasons.

Reds bullpen is going to blow. Not leads, because I don't see the Reds having many leads, at least not by the 7th or 8th inning. It's the weakest link on this generally weak team, IMO.

My real big issue with rookie starting rotations isn't just 150-175 inning season ceilings, it's they often have 5 inning game ceilings....exposing the bullpen...and the lack of offensive capability to come back. Bad bullpens are probably the worst confidence destroyers on a team (other than bad D). They turn losers into routs, wins into losses, and tempt managers to overuse young starters. They entice starting pitchers to hide sore arms, they wear out catchers patience and turn normally aggressive defenses into apathetic spectators, turning quick OF's into joggers to doubles, and get more infield "bad hop" errors because they're on their heels. They allow opposing steals more because focus is on constant command issues. Worse, they cause crowds to leave in the 7th inning.

 

[eburg5000]

I was watching the Reds playing the Dodgers today. Votto comes to the plate lays the head of the bat in front of him, then puts his hands on his knees and leans on the bat. He didn't do it every at bat, but most of them. It definitely caught the attention of the Dodger broadcasters. They checked out and somebody said he was thinking. I don't know but I hope this isn't something that he is going to be doing all season. if he didn't have the bat handle leaning against his nuts or area it wouldn't look so ridiculous. Has anyone else seen this?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I try and listen to the radio broadcast, but haven't seen very much live TV. I saw video of the Votto AB that Eburg is talking about and it's a unusual between pitch routine. But whether he's holding the bat or leaning it, I can't say I care.

Guys have been adjusting their junk since the cup was invented, so leaning a bat seems inconsequential to me.

 

[eburg5000]

I just thought it was odd, and it might bring some unwanted attention from the fans when the Reds go on the road. But this is the 21st century and there is a lot of odd things going on that I don't understand

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Now DeSclafani has a injury. The list continues to grow.

Bailey, Desclafani, Lorenzen, Lamb, and Moscot are all unable to pitch the first week and beyond depending on individual injury status. Others can't pitch the opening week..... Well, because they can't pitch.

So Iglesias wasn't ready due to off season training regimen, but now he's the OD starter. Simon was in the D.R. less than two weeks ago and now he's the #2. The #3 is listed as unknown, but is probably Tim Melville. The #4 is Finnegan who has been awful his last 4 starts. The #5 might be some guy from the Reds Fantasy Camp.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Votto thing: sometimes, a hitter thinks he can get into a pitchers head, and a hit 10 seconds later kinda supports that...Right ? It may be repeated until a pitcher gets wise and throws a fastball while he's in the box, not clutching the bat, or drills him in the nads. IMO, Votto is a great hitter, maybe too cerebral for some, and quite possibly medicated to a degree, with varying degrees of downstream results. Maybe it's simply a way to remind him where his center is in relationship to the plate. If he has an OBP around .400 I couldn't care less.

SP- careful what you ask for, sometimes you get it. The Reds paved the path to complete overhaul, and this is the result. Young guys get hurt too. Old guys by definition have learned to not get hurt just to make it that long. Gotta crawl before you walk, and then learn to run, other than Desclafani, no young starter has tossed more than half a MLB season workload. IMO, they need a mix or 9 part time starters. With Alfredo, and Bailey, maybe they'll get a mix...later.

The Reds like all teams, draft more pitchers than any other position. To be honest, in the near term, in a hitters park, I think the Reds need to learn how to draft hitters, cause they sure don't develop enough of them.

 

[eburg5000]

This rotation is a mess, The Reds will be lucky to get 4 or five inning out of them. I don't know. I don't think I have ever seen the Reds bring a rotation like this to start a season. The hitting wasn't bad in AZ. but who knows what we will get when they get up here.
I'm hoping for a miracle, and the Reds will win it all this year. And this is the start of a Reds dynasty that will last for years. And that Tim Melville wins the 1st of many Cy Young awards for Reds. But back to reality we all know what we are going to see... unfortunately

 

[wvu_man]

I'm going to be that sickening, overly optimistic guy here haha Yes, the rotation is banged up now...yes, the bullpen looks to be a nightmare. But as Eburg said, the offense has actually looked pretty darn good in ST. I know it's only ST but a platoon of Duvall/Schebler appears it may be an upgrade over Byrd (which wouldn't take much). Peraza appears he might be a solid player. Hopefully, Meso, Cozart, and Homer will come back and play well. I'm honestly not worried about the offense. If a few things fall our way, I can really see us around the .500 mark. Think about it...could we be any worse than last year? We lost Frazier but regained Cozart, Meso, and possibly a better LF platoon. The pitching hasn't changed much except for getting Homer and Simon back and they are probably gonna be an upgrade over last season. That would mean we need to win about 2-3 more games per MONTH. I honestly think that could happen.

 

[chico ruiz]

thank you h-n-r, for the perspective. i'm hoping that not too many fans get disillusioned in the next few years. there's going to be a lot of catcalls at GABP, and deservedly so, but i would hate to see attendance dip below 2 million. another 2.5 million year, is probably too much to ask for, but it remains one of the top 5 parks to see a game in MLB. i have one followup question. are younger professional types still moving into the downtown area at the pace they were 2 tears ago? i could envision newer denizens (including casual fans) relishing the idea of walking to the yard, with adjacent eateries and bars, and purchasing 5 - 20 game packages.

i hear you wvu. i too am wearing rosy red colored glasses. it happens every year, and continues to mathematical elimination.

1507 made a excellent point -a while back- that didn't go unnoticed. he basically wrote (correct me if i'm wrong 1507) that fans, in general, don't realize how hard it is to actually lose 100 games in a season. i took the meaning as every team has enough good players to win 65-70 games. even the better teams are going to get enough bad bounces, during the course of a season, that the other teams will win some. a reasonable amount of parody, with a lot of talent across the league, and some luck. you've got to have a lot going against you in terms of talent, injuries, and bad juju to reach the lofty apex of 100 loses. so much so, that the oldest franchise in mlb has only done it once in their entire history. it took a constantly injured (20 starts) tom seaver having his worst year ever as a professional with an ERA of 5. a guy named bench played 3rd base, and a player named clint hurdle played some outfield. if that's not enough black magic for you, the reds also had a profoundly inexplicable power ebb that year. only 2 players reached double digits in hr's (driessen - 17 & bench - 13). there's more, but you get the picture. a lot had to go wrong to reach the mystical 100 number. if you had told any player, fan, or nuxhall, on april 5th, 1982 that the reds will lose 100+ games this year, they would have said you were a imbecilic, government cheese-eating, baseball know-nothing simpleton. 'get a clue boy and go see pigmeat jarrett. he's playing up the hill,' an opening day, warm buzzed, veritable cincinnatian might have said.

 

[eburg5000]

You are right Chico. Reds fans at that time thought not making the playoffs was a bad season. We hadn't seen a really bad season for a really long time, and we were spoiled . And the year before they had the best record in baseball, The year we didn't make the playoffs thanks to Bowie, I will throw this in to although it is just an opinion. If that would have been the Yankees ended up like the Reds and had the best record. They would have been in the playoffs. Sorry for getting off topic, but I'm still pissed