SPRING TRAINING ... the thread

[chico ruiz]

if i may, with kind permission, offer a compare and contrast to 1507's post.

i was in arizona for only a week. since then, it's been all grapefruit league. i've seen every nl team in florida. you want an evaluation? here's a naked eye take. the reds are near the bottom in overall talent. farms and prospects? above average pitching depth, with categorical minor league talent at all other positions sans peraza (who i consider a major leaguer) and winker (who could become a legitimate mlb bat eventually). sweet swing, but what i saw was a tendency to guess and cheat on above average heat. reminded be of matt joyce. what i've seen on the back fields at bradenton scare the hell out of me. a system installed by huntington, benedict, and searage that the pirates do not deviate from. scary efficient with continuity of instruction at all levels. and if you don't think that translates to a mlb mound you haven't been watching close enough. have any of you wondered how the pirates pitching could be so good? i've read a lot of digs at pirate pitchers on this board, but they miss the point by a mile. how did cole get so good so fast? why did burnett want to go back to the pirates? they spend a lot of time on the mental strength side of the game, and it shows. have you noticed how the pirates don't make many mental errors? what i see is a crisp, ordered, loose, and confident team. they've created a culture that starts from the day they sign a player. they have pitchers in the pipeline more prepared and mlb ready than the reds do by a sizable margin. you see johnu, this is what scares me. their system was established some years ago and they've stuck within the financial and instructional (development) parameters that were set as far back as 2008. speed, defense, and pitching. not necessarily in that order.

if there is any truth to the 5 stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance) i think i'm between depression & acceptance. oh yes, i like to think i'm ready for this season. but, the truth is, i'm still flailing about knowing what's coming is going to be bad. real bad. as i read the above posts, it goes from real bad to -if this is possible- worse.i don't know if i'll even be able to enjoy my morning ritual shit while perusing the reds box score from the previous night. pacheco's value? where dejesus fits in? the batting cages at joyce park sometimes referred to as tony cingrani? jon sanchez (no half funny parenthetical needed - the kevin gregg analogy was dark enough - joke is over, he gone)? blake wood (gas, gas, gas, but pirates did not care to keep him on 40-man)? barnhart fan club of one? with all due respect, do you guys re-read your stuff? who signed marquis, gregg, wood, sanchez etc etc etc and, much more importantly, why? a very shallow farm system is why. and here comes the really sad part. it can't be fixed in a year or two. the number of years it sat fallow are the number of years it will take to just get it back up to speed. that also assumes dick williams means what he says, and they correct what 1507's post eloquently explains has been lacking (absent). the callis article is also assuming the reds draft and sign well this year. and if he's so high on the reds farms why aren't they in his own top ten? it's mlb.com writer rah-rah siss boom bah froth. i'm an optimist, but i'm also a realist. also, i will not be a hypocrite and pan the likes of cave, holt, schebler, mellville, etc etc, because i know who signed or traded for them, and the conditions under which they did it.

so, yeah, for the next 5 years, like it or not, i will occasionally remind this board of those facts. not perception. not new information. fact. i've seen too many small and mid market teams understand, adapt, and consistently succeed the last decade+ to let the oldest franchise off the hook. please remember, i write this as someone who loves the city and loves the team. it's a slice of heaven at GABP. especially on a not too cool early june homestand night at 7:10pm. if ever a ballpark deserved a consistently competitive team, she does. i mean, just look at her. she's beautiful.

 

[JohnU]

I need to emphasize, I was hoping this thread was about what the team was doing in spring training as opposed to what the front office was doing about the long-range plans for the franchise. Seems that there are those who would profess to preach about bullshit that doesn't have anything to do with that. Whatever fuckin' makes you happy. In any case, the crap about the front office's failing has virtually nothing to do with that, and here we are, pretending to evaluate the thoughts of others when it's clear we haven't even come to reality on the topic at hand. It is really difficult to move beyond that point.

The franchise's plans over the next five years are so fuckin' incidental to me as to be akin to whether I will buy air freshener for my bathroom. I am more interested in the 25-man roster than whether some 13-year-old is going to be drafted in 5 years.

Really, I don't get it, Chico. Get a fucking grip.

 

[JohnU]

Relief: Sanchez released.
No surprise: Stephenson and Waldrip will start the year in Louisville.
Nice to see that Mesoraco can at least swing a bat.

 

[JohnU]

Looks like Duvall and Schebler will make the team.

REPORT ON WINKER, STEPHENSON

 

[JohnU]

Did O'Grady make the roster with the release of Dirty Sanchez?
Seems fairly automatic. I think the Reds will pick up a player or two that we haven't anticipated.

 

[chico ruiz]

i've been posting, on this thread -i think it's fair to say- insightful informed (nowhere near BS) comments on seen and unseen. i always try to avoid knee-jerk and strive to support and reference. i put a premium on s & r. if i post a disagreement comment, i virtually always cite, source, and document. my original response to h-n-r's excellent post had both types of content (seen & unseen). my second post was almost entirely about the seen and hopeful unforeseen. please don't make this board uncomfortable or a place where you have to choose every word so carefully that the thrust of the commentary is completely diluted. this isn't the old cbs board, or whatever that was. we don't have a bunch of nasty half-wit yahoos to deal with. there is a group of us here that know the game pretty darn well. h-n-r & 1507 posted very similar comments to mine that i thought were fair, legitimate, and accurate criticisms.

i think we have some interesting back and forth. do we disagree occasionally? sure we do, and i think deep down you know i have a decent grip. but, let's keep the communication free and open because, despite the obvious limitations of the reds roster we may see some very interesting things this year. williams may be able to speed up the turnaround of the organization (i actually posted that earlier in this thread). he certainly doesn't impress me as being incapable, and he deserves some patience too. he just started as the gm. it's going to be frustrating in 2016 for us reds fans. there is no doubt about that. i think a little patience on this board might be warranted as well. that's it. no comments on the reds front office and overall organizational ineptitude. can you believe that?

 

[JohnU]

I have no problem with this topic, but I was hoping to not read another 1,200 words on the state of the front office in the spring training thread. Cheesh, everything ends up with some kind of arcane analysis of what's going on in Neal Huntington's private villa. I mean, can we just give it a damned rest?

It's not matter of agreeing on how the franchise projects its talent, it is that it's a vapid ongoing dreadfully uninteresting yawn of a nagging rant. It solves nothing. I was hoping that this thread would be about the current team and how it's evolving, which is inevitably what the season is about.

If that's not something you want to do, start a separate thread. I can't stop you from posting here, but I read everything that is contributed, and at the end ... what new information did you leave with us?

Just another long rant about how "Wally" has screwed up the metrics.

We already know this.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Well, I'm gonna whine...I'm a sore loser. I'm a believer in baseball and politics, we should raise a little hell when we don't get what we pay for, instead of just perpetuating the status quo, or worse, just not showing up.

On the other hand, I'd rather have a dog at GABP than a steak at Ruths Chris. Nothing like a sunny spring day, the views of the river and the sights and sounds and smells of a baseball game... crisp cool grass, warm red dirt, snow white chalk...aroma of the Smokehouse and that beer vendor with the opera voice...peanut shells crunching under your feet, kids swarming the low fence for autographs, fathers and sons and granddad buying a program. Organ music before the game and fireworks after homers. The crack of the catchers mitt in the bullpen. Reminds me of seeds and dip and pine tar. Leather and Icy Hot. Sanitary socks and tape, double bubble and Gatorade. Nervous chatter in the dugout and the buzz of the crowd.

I'm not giving that up just because those assholes can't put a winner on the field this year.

 

[chico ruiz]

you seem strangely angry johnu. 1200 words shouldn't hurt your head. an easy read that can be ignored or tucked away to reference later. i don't know why you didn't leave it alone after my last post. but, the truth is you're what pop psychology refers to as a control freak. i offer a segue forward. you offer insults of intelligence because you must have the last word and direct which way the thread goes. apparently, you can't help yourself. i understand that you post more than us, but that doesn't give you carte blanche to direct the conversation to fit your specific concentric views or expectations.

for the record, there's nothing arcane about a organization establishing a 'culture,' or, for example, 'cardinal way.' something has gone wrong in the reds farm system. actually, i don't think it's even accurate to call it a system. i quoted hal mcrae to highlight how it once was a system, with a culture or 'reds way.' 1507 writes, "I'd LOVE to see an organization wide, minor league instructional staff, coaches, managers and big league staff on the same page in regard to a fundamentally sound hitting philosophy. Hey, I know that sounds old school…." who cares how it sounds 1507. you are 100% correct about what has been missing and needs to happen. i mentioned the pirates because they've been doing what 1507 describes. i thought i made that very clear. yes, i certainly did. the pirates are who i've seen lately, they're in our division, and i did offer new information. i could give other observations, if you asked, but it's obvious you would rather i not post anything, about anything, ever. i think you missed, or don't understand, many of the points i was trying to make. '13 year old draftee in 5 years?' where did that come from? 'metrics?' i didn't mention metrics at all. your first sentence in post #122 betrays your misconceptions.

could be you have some special ingrown hair up your ass about me specifically? probably. you don't like people that disagree with you. your responses come like clockwork -'uninteresting, pretentious, arrogant, and of course, the obligatory mean-spirited childish name calling. so, it unsurprisingly happens again. innocuous posts that somehow are interpreted as personal affronts, and because the thread took a fork in the road you don't like, it's turned into a pissing contest that, as usual, will end with the threat to leave and go home with your marbles.

nevertheless, like 1507 (nice post #128. i smell it now), i'll be there. i'll see the reds twice in april. 2 three game series. i'll be loving every minute of it. well, most of it. i'll take GABP over citifield everyday and twice on sunday. but, of course, they don't do that anymore.

 

[JohnU]

The discussion should simply be about whether THIS PARTICULAR THREAD is about spring training or about some convoluted discussion about the ineptitude of the front office. If that's complicated, please refer to Baseball 101. I don't have a problem with discussions about the front office. I was just hoping that THIS PARTICULAR THREAD could be confined to spring training. Whatever was confusing about that, well fuck me ... for being a control freak. I've opened a dozen or more threads this winter and none of them has generated enough interest to make me want to do anything else.
But I keep doing it and I keep wondering why a simple request -- can we keep the spring training thread about ... um, spring training ... instead of another long drawn-out metrics rant about the Reds front office ... so one of us is an idiot, I suppose, but never mind ... we keep doing the same thing over and over again, proving that at least part of the population is dense and insane.

So fuck it ... here's your goddamned forum for pissing around trying to hope that some front-office person will actually read this ... I really do just give up.

fuck this shit.

THIS THREAD IS ABOUT SPRING TRAINING.

Is that really that hard to understand?

And your 1,200 words would be a whole lot more interesting if you had ever learned how to use capital letters at the start of a sentence. It's not like THAT hasn't been mentioned before. So whatever intellect you profess, Chico, did it ever occur to you that real English starts sentences with CAPITAL FUCKING LETTERS?

And since you haven't done this and have been asked to do this at least several times, please impart some wisdom about having gone to Grapefruit league back-lot games. Those are sooooooooooooooooooooooo valuable for expert analysts.

It's not about you ... honestly, it is about everyone else. I doubt you'd catch onto that.

But I have spent most of the winter trying to sustain real baseball chat on this board. All I get is another tome from you about how the Reds front office is inept.

Geez, get a grip.

 

[JohnU]

So please enjoy yourselves here on Chico's board about how the Reds front office is inept.
Consider this my last post, ever.
I'd hate to be a control freak.

 

[Redsfan1507]

C'mon John U...I love a meltdown occasionally...especially one that's not mine....You have some good ones I enjoy. Besides, meltdowns are a fraction of your posts. Most are pretty good reads, actually, and you may be the only (former) media type I ever had a conversation with that I didn't want to spit in their eye.

 

[eburg5000]

John. you are the Boards QB, You are the one that starts most of the threads. Not to mention you post all winter long. I value your insight. So I hope you reconsider. I also enjoy all the others who post here to. The people who post on this board go a little deeper than I have seen on other boards. And everyone is so much more polite here than other boards. I don't have that deeper insight that all you have. but I do understand it and appreciate it..

Chico. I'm jealous. I would love to go to spring training in AZ. But after plane tickets, renting a car, staying at least a week in motels eating, drinking, buying tickets to the games. and parking. its going to be more than I want to spend right now. I used to go to Florida every spring, but sense the Reds moved to AZ I haven't been to spring training. I say this every year, but I'm still pissed that they moved to AZ

 

[chico ruiz]

good lord?!?!? that's ludicrous. why? i'm not to going parlay that puerile nonsense, or respond in kind. it does, however, beg the question, who is it that really needs to get a grip here? i do agree with 1507 and eburg. "most of your posts are pretty good reads." i've always enjoyed the photo links, and historical perspectives (they make me feel all warm & fuzzy inside). also, you actually watch the games, with -i've always thought- a discerning eye and engaging followup posts. eburg makes a good observation. 'everyone is more polite on this board,' which implies being respectful, thoughtful, graceful, and civil. we're too old to bullshit each other. we don't always attain those better angelic goals. but, it seems to me, the effort is made on this board. btw, nothing to be jealous of mr. eburg. i'm breaking down physically, and stove-up like an old cowpuncher. the broken collar bones, separated shoulders, meniscus damage, and partial acl tears are following me around like a labrador puppy. i'd be lying to you if i didn't tell you the romance and glamour wore off a long time ago. it's hard to eat right. i get trapped in places i don't want to be. and the worst part? i'm away from home, and those i love, way too much. it's painful sometimes. but, i have a job, which i wakeup in a cold sweat sometimes thanking my lucky stars that i have, so i can continue paying my exorbitant -not well thought through- student loan debt payments until i die. maybe i should change professions, forget this simian cameraman stuff, and give harvard or columbia's psychology departments a jingle.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Cody Reed had his first bad outing of ST. Just one inning really, but that's all it takes most games. Those crooked numbers are a killer.

The latest I read suggested Tim Melville would be the backup plan if Moscot wasn't ready by OD. Nothing against Melville personally.... but really?

When I look at the Reds overall pitching this Spring, the one common denominator is poor command. There's plenty of power arms that were brought to camp, but the reality is most of these guys are 4-5 IP with the modern day pitch count restrictions. Fantasy owners love the strike out and the high K/BB ratio, but the reality in today's game is strike outs with 4+ BB/9 doesn't cut it if your desired outcome is SP's getting deep into the game.

 

[chico ruiz]

the third pitch and command of it. i can only think of a handful of starters recently that could get away with 2 pitches. it's usually a fastball and a ungodly slider that hitters can't read.

everything i've read and seen with the reds young pitchers says they are working on command of the elusive third pitch. the young very promising pitchers are there, but it will take a year or two of developing. there was always going to be an innings crunch, and i don't think anybody really thought that most of them would be mlb ready to start 2016. but, i still think you're going to see some interesting and positive things at gabp post all-star break or before. there's going to be a lot on ted power's plate this spring and summer. a lot of pressure and expectations moving forward. they're going to want results. there's a lot riding on it for the reds.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Reed is going to AAA to save a year on arb/FA clock, even though he's been one of the best SP this spring. Performance Doesn't mean much if cash is envolved I guess.

I had to chuckle when I saw BP was the planned cleanup hitter. Dusty must have been a legacy manager after all. Not that the Reds have a lot of hitters, but I think anyone that hits fewer than 20 HR and still hits into more DP's than HR isn't a cleanup hitter, and someone making 3rd best money to hit more than 20 HR should be earning his money in a spot that begs for HR. Mesoraco is planned to hit 6th...the 3 days a week he catches of course.

Expect a platoon in LF, probably Schebler and DuVall. I haven't heard much about Phil Ervin, but thought he looked serviceable as a CF- something to keep in mind with Mendoza line BA and sore armed Hamilton as Plan A.

Bailey had TJ in May, so reports of him back in May are at minimum possible return- normal pace to similar effectiveness is up to 18 months, so he's no sure thing anytime soon, IMO...hence the Simon signing. I expect Peraza to be sent down late in ST, for no better reasoning than lack of everyday PT opportunity with the big club. Dunno what options are left though, so they need to be careful about wasting them all before the kid has enough MLB AB to be sure he's ready for MLB duty without options.

 

[chico ruiz]

phillips? i don't know 1507. he seems like a microcosm of what has gone wrong in a organization with few options. i don't think he would be in the 4 hole if he were a national. but, in cincinnati, a veteran hitter that makes contact more often than not is……ah hell. if the reds stay healthy (ah hell), and peraza & hamilton get on at a .300+ clip, that could cut down on the dp's by the bp. it's so hard to speculate with a organization that is in such a dramatic transition. will bp and bruce be with the reds come all-star break? if nothing else, it's going to be interesting. btw, here's something that has needed to be written on this board for a long time. there are 2 critical, yet enthusiastic, 2016 reds season ticket holders in our midst. that says it all. so, i say without ingratiation, bravo sirs, bravo!

you guys know i like bp. but, he's worn out his welcome based almost entirely on his adam laroche - like comments. that kind of crap, from multi-millionaires doesn't sit well with me. i seem to understand what they don't. you can't have a new school without the old school. the foundation is, and always will be, good and sturdy. goose gossage had it mostly right a few weeks back. my god, that was hilarious, provocative, and 99.9% true. there are players and teams that understand that tradition, incorporate it with contemporary tools, and kick ass on the field. it's subtle, but you can see it when they go first to third, or take out a ss to break up a potential dp. i pray to the baseball gods that mlb doesn't dilute the game any further by implementing……ah hell. can't slide through the bag??? what?

 

[Redsfan1507]

Don't get me wrong- Phillips is probably the 2nd best hitter on this pitiful squad. He's a good inside the ball hitter as a tablesetter, but tries to pull too much (without gaining any HR) in the 4 hols. Hits too many groundballs. His lack of walks speaks to pitchers not fearing him, and his ability to get just enough wood on the ball to bounce into twin killings on pitchers pitches. Bruce should have been forced to learn to make better contact, and hit against the shift, and earn a lineup spot fitting of his salary. Mesoraco would be a better choice, except no one except the Reds would consider the best cleanup hitter a platoon player.

Reds often waste too much of what talent they have- no matter what that level is.

 

[chico ruiz]

1507, h-n-r, johnu, eburg, tubbs, etc etc. i'm at the point now, where i'm genuinely concerned about the overall health of the reds organization. h-n-r, was there any unseen financial burdens, beyond the obvious, that you can reconcile? how much did full package season tickets increase this year? do you think the reds will get a significant boost after this year's tv deal expires? do you think the reds were running out the clock and got caught a little short this year with the new pending 2017 deal expectation? i think the cardinals got a 1 billion dollar deal with their RSN over 15 years. as of now, the reds get 30 million a year from FSO. can you see that increasing closer to 70 million per year for 15-20 years? is TWC bidding? these questions may seem irrelevant, but they are becoming increasingly important. i'm curious about these things, and i'm going to start making inquiries. the reds can't get the monstrous deal the dodgers received, but you would think they could get somewhere close to the money the padres or diamondbacks garnered. kentucky, indiana, west virginia (i'm still meeting new west virginian reds fans), parts of western pennsylvania and new york - if i'm not mistaken. that's a large swath of reds potential media country. if anybody has any thoughts, or information, on this, i would love to read them.

this paragraph written by 1507 covers a lot of ground with a minimum of words.

Bailey had TJ in May, so reports of him back in May are at minimum possible return- normal pace to similar effectiveness is up to 18 months, so he's no sure thing anytime soon, IMO...hence the Simon signing. I expect Peraza to be sent down late in ST, for no better reasoning than lack of everyday PT opportunity with the big club. Dunno what options are left though, so they need to be careful about wasting them all before the kid has enough MLB AB to be sure he's ready for MLB duty without options.

an economy of language that i should practice more often. i do have some very random thoughts to offer about this, in a bigger picture sense. matt harvey is a good example of what 1507's post questions. he had TJS in october of 2013. he wanted to pitch in september of 2014. mets said, in no uncertain terms, no way - no how. at almost exactly 18 months post surgery harvey pitched again and was very effective. btw, in 2013, harvey was on pace to pitch 250 innings. adam wainwright came back to pitch 12 months after TJS and had his statistically worst season with an era of 4. cautionary tales to be sure. so, the reds can run homer out there, but his effectiveness, if history tells us anything, may not come till later in the season. what i've seen, with pitchers coming back in a year from TJS, is difficulty, and frustration, throwing with the same command as before TJS. that seems to take more time. matt moore is another good example that fits that profile. homer has always said that command and location of his fastball is paramount to his effectiveness. a lot of pitchers are the same, but it's homer's bread and butter. 2012 & 13 were his breakout years and his velocity went up 2 mph. he used his split more, and it was more effective, but it was the better location and velocity of the #1 that were mostly responsible for those no-hitters. his release point didn't change, and he made going up the ladder, with a little extra heat, an art form. hitters couldn't read it and couldn't catch up to it. 95 mph right at the tits, when homer was ahead in the count, and batters were done. he had the likes of mccutchen guessing, flailing, or frozen. it explains why the reds signed him to a long term contract, but it will take him longer than 12 months to get back to that pitcher. might take him until 2017. might never happen. but, by and large, the effectiveness and limitation quotients post-TJS, as 1507 highlights, have become standardized in mlb.

i emphasize 'standard' because i'm trying to understand the timing of the simon signing. you couple bailey with what was always going to be a very real innings problem for the entire staff, and you come up with simon half way through spring training? if simon was signed as cover for bailey, why didn't they sign him and / or someone else during the winter? to me, this is the worst case scenario for the reds, less than 2 weeks from opening day, because the innings question is perilously unanswered.

it has never made sense to me. was it a straight dollars and cents problem that hinged on the would-be bruce and phillips trade(s)? if so, why didn't they make that happen last year? were they convinced sanchez was the answer? were they gun-shy after last year's debacle? maybe it's a combination of all the above. fellow posters, this is one that leaves me scratching my head and slack jawed. despite votto's and bailey's salaryb umps, and still paying junior, arroyo, etc, you have to have a warm body on the mound. competitive would be preferred. the reds don't have enough mlb arms, as it is, right now. can you imagine if just one of them gets DL'd for any significant time? 1507 suggests, in terms of the young pitchers, it could be medical experiments for the lot of them. this isn't a whine or a rant. this is about having enough arms to simply field a team's pitching staff for 162 games. expansion teams set up better. is this a work in progress, with plans for trades before july? there's nothing worse than trading out of need, rather than want, for a small / mid market mlb team in 2016. it means you most likely will get neither. there's no way to put a good spin on this situation for the home team. something is wrong. something is very very wrong. it's gotten down right weird. am i living in some parallel universe? are these guys really throwing a baseball back and forth? is that 30 yards or 30 inches? god help me, the rubber is melting. billy mumy is pointing at me and wishing me into the cornfield. this ain't so bad really.