What did Cincy get from Oakland

[CrashDavisSports]

So now Dalton is going to get slammed because the tough defenses he faced last year were tougher than ones this year?

Does he not get credit for last year that he was a rookie QB with no preseason work with a new OC and a team that was pretty miserable the year before?

I mean, just trying to keep the fucking thing in perspective here man.

 

[flamingrey]

I would say that Dalton not being the best player on his offense is a good thing. It's a team game, after all, and Dalton is better than average. I would also say the only quarterbacks who are the best players on their team are maybe Rodgers, Brady, PManning, EManning, with maybe Luck, Griffin, and Newton headed that way in the future. Elite quarterbacks are not easy to come by.

Brees
Brady
E. Manning (19th in QB Rating btw)
P. Manning
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Schaub
Ryan
Stafford
Rivers

Flacco
Romo
Cutler
RGIII

I don't think Freeman or Smith are better than Dalton even though they have better statistics.

The top 10 are hands down better than Dalton and are the best players on their teams. Those in the 2nd set are also better, but might not fit in the "hands down". Best case he's middle of the pack.

 

[flamingrey]

So now Dalton is going to get slammed because the tough defenses he faced last year were tougher than ones this year?

Does he not get credit for last year that he was a rookie QB with no preseason work with a new OC and a team that was pretty miserable the year before?

I mean, just trying to keep the fucking thing in perspective here man.

In this comparison, it is relevant. If you're going to say that he's improved against "better defenses", then those "better defenses" have to be on a level playing field to have a valid comparison. Hence, it's important to factor that in.

In the context of this comparison, the fact alone that he was a rookie last season with a new OC does not factor in since we're comparing levels of play. The fact that he did what he did as a rookie is impressive in and of itself, but not relevant in a year to year comparative sense.

 

[cincygrad]

Brees
Brady
E. Manning (19th in QB Rating btw)
P. Manning
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Schaub
Ryan
Stafford
Rivers

Flacco
Romo
Cutler
RGIII

I don't think Freeman or Smith are better than Dalton even though they have better statistics.

The top 10 are hands down better than Dalton and are the best players on their teams. Those in the 2nd set are also better, but might not fit in the "hands down". Best case he's middle of the pack.

Didn't you just say that Stafford and Flacco weren't the best players on their offense? Now they are the best players on their teams?

BTW -- Not sure Schaub is the best player on his team. I'd probably choose Andre Johnson. The team did manage to win a playoff game without Schaub.

 

[DanBengalfan]

Bengals QB Andy Dalton is one of three players in NFL history with 20+ TD passes in each of his first two seasons, joining Peyton Manning and Dan Marino. Not bad company to keep, wouldn't you agree?
https://www.facebook.com/bengals

There you go, he's the 3rd greatest QB of all time. suck it boyz!!! (love, Hobspin)

 

[bengaldoug]

Cleveland is ranked 16th in defense this season when they were ranked 5th last season. I could give you last seasons ranks, but this season, they're middle of the pack (to be honest, personally I would include them in either season which would actually help Dalton).

Their ranking difference can be explained by their schedule. Last year's opponents averaged 20.5 ppg, this year's 23.5. Their ratio is similar, and they have basically the same solid defense this year as last. Also, they have good ratios in ypc (4.1/4.2) and YPA (6.4/6.8). Still a good defense.


And if you were going to look at Cleveland this season at 16, Arizona was ranked 17 last season, you should consider them as well. Furthermore, last season Seattle was ranked 7th, yet they aren't included.

Seattle should have been included. Oversight on my part. Not going back to redo, though.

While I do respect the "defenses who gave up less ppg than their opponents averaged", I don't agree that that is the best measuring stick for a good defense. A lot of things go into ppg.

Disagree strongly. The defense's ultimate responsibility is to prevent the opponent from scoring. No one number does that as well as the difference between what the opponent scores and what the defense allows.


I would not consider the Giants for similar but different reasons for not including the Browns. As I discussed in an earlier post, the Giants are extremely inconsistent on defense. They at times have a good defense and at times a bad defense. I really do not consider them "good".

The Giants have one of the better scoring ratios in the league, not to mention what many experts consider the top DL in football. They are good, but any sane judgement.

The funny thing is, even using your argument and the teams you used, you take the Giants out, and the stats become very similar, most importantly the TDs and INTs. Even putting them in that good defense category, they're more outlier than they are anything else.

You may not agree with the above, but I'm sure you'll agree with the defenses we faced last season are better than the defenses this season.

Agreed, but offense is up across the league this year, which is why opponent's stats are the best way to judge what is good and what is not.

Cleveland as already discussed. Went from 5th to 16th (and we got to play them without Haden). Pittsburgh is worse defensively than they were last season (just look up the game thread where numerous posters including grad stated they didn't recognize Pittsburgh defense).

Defensive numbers say differently. Still giving up only 19.1 ppg vs opponents scoring 22.8. Their YPA ratio is every bit as good as it was last year. (5.5/6.5) . That's a yard per pass less than their opponents average.



Baltimore is pretty much a wash since we played them when they were healthy. I would say Houston and Miami are a wash, both stout defenses. Between SF and NYG/Denver, it really isn't close.

Conclusion: I asked for this comparison, so with the above paragraph, I'm not saying disregard everything, but put it into perspective. You look at that one game against the Giants (even though I don't agree with including it at all) that skewed his stats for this season, and this season the defenses have been easier than those last season. Also, consider a better Green and a much improved offensive system (yac) and you can see where the stats might show Dalton's improved.

I defy you to find any comparison where one or two games didn't make a difference in a small sample size. All we have to make logical judgements are the averages.

Where's the improvement in downfield accuracy? Where's the improvement in decision making against the good defenses (again, I dare you to look up game threads from that losing streak)? Where's the improved ability to hit receivers in tight window?

I gave you objective arguments supported by relevant statistics, and you answered with subjective claims that cannot be proven easily, and maybe not at all. From my eye he has thrown it downfield more accurately. Yes, he could improve more. I have also seen him fit a few into tight windows this year. Specifically I remember the first score in the Denver game, which was a helluva throw between three closing defenders. This becomes a difference of opinion, which neither of us can tangibly prove. My conclusion is your conclusion is wrong.

 

[bengaldoug]

Brees
Brady
E. Manning (19th in QB Rating btw)
P. Manning
Rodgers
Roethlisberger
Schaub
Ryan
Stafford
Rivers

Flacco
Romo
Cutler
RGIII

I don't think Freeman or Smith are better than Dalton even though they have better statistics.

The top 10 are hands down better than Dalton and are the best players on their teams. Those in the 2nd set are also better, but might not fit in the "hands down". Best case he's middle of the pack.

I'll give you the top six. Schaub is maybe third best on his team(Foster, AJohnson). Ryan has the best pair of receivers in football (White, Jones). Do you think they might make him look a little bit better? Stafford has Megatron, and Rivers is totally overrated.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I mean, I understand your point Flaming. We are not a top team, and we will probably miss the playoffs. All agreed upon.

However, there are a few bright points on our team, and Andy Dalton is certainly one of them.

In his second year he is closing in on 4000 yards passing and 30+ TD's. Andy Dalton can only play the teams he is scheduled to play. He has sucked against Pittsburgh and Baltimore even though he threw for 373 yards against Baltimore last year, but had like 3 INT's tryign to come back from behind in the game. He also had 330 yards ~ against Denver last year who had a great defense IMO.

He was a rookie with no preseason drills and practices. He is a second year player, we have a winning record as of right now.

When was the last time we had back to back winning seasons? How about from a QB who was a rookie that first year and a second year player the next? If we are winning more games than we are losing, I am a pretty happy camper. After the last 20+ years, I am good with just having back to back winning seasons RIGHT NOW from a rookie and sencond year QB. I am especially good with the fact that second year QB is going to throw for near 4000 yards with 30+ TD's.

I honestly do not know what you have against Andy Dalton, but man it must be something embarrassing for you to be the animated about such a good young player.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I'll give you the top six. Schaub is maybe third best on his team(Foster, AJohnson). Ryan has the best pair of receivers in football (White, Jones). Do you think they might make him look a little bit better? Stafford has Megatron, and Rivers is totally overrated.

I would say JJ Watt and maybe even Jonathan Joseph could be better than Schaub.

 

[flamingrey]

Didn't you just say that Stafford and Flacco weren't the best players on their offense? Now they are the best players on their teams?

BTW -- Not sure Schaub is the best player on his team. I'd probably choose Andre Johnson. The team did manage to win a playoff game without Schaub.

Stafford was an oversight. Calvin Johnson is the best player on that team.

Good point about Schaub. In addition to Johnson, I think an argument could be made for Foster as well. But in any case, they've won without Johnson and they've won without Foster as well. I think I still might go with Schaub in this case. Go figure the team they beat was the Dalton-led Bengals and the one they were close to was the Flacco-led Ravens.

 

[flamingrey]

[/B]

I gave you objective arguments supported by relevant statistics, and you answered with subjective claims that cannot be proven easily, and maybe not at all. From my eye he has thrown it downfield more accurately. Yes, he could improve more. I have also seen him fit a few into tight windows this year. Specifically I remember the first score in the Denver game, which was a helluva throw between three closing defenders. This becomes a difference of opinion, which neither of us can tangibly prove. My conclusion is your conclusion is wrong.

I think you're finally starting to get it.

First of all, your arguments are subjective as well, just not as much as mine for obvious reasons - the stats you'd need for my arguments are more difficult to come by. Don't try to fool yourself. I believe in this very thread you mentioned something about football being a team sport. Well, don't you think that applies to QB stats as well? Does OC not factor into a QB's stats? System? Personnel?

What was Smith before Harbaugh and now after? What would Stafford be without Johnson - surely not a 5000 yard passer?

Unfortunately, you have to pay to get many of the more advanced statistics. Your eye tells you one thing, but mine another. You like to claim I want to see what I want to see and twist things to fit my personal opinion, but you're no different. Don't fool yourself.

Things like completion % for passes travelling 0-10 yards, 10-20, 20-30, etc. downfield. That's very important in determining downfield accuracy. Only with those would you be able to make an objective assessment of Dalton's improvement from one year to the next.

Yac. Where can I find those statistics by team? Not only by team, but broken up game to game. Only then can you truly paint an "objective" picture of improvement of yards per game and ypa. That includes completion percentage as well. How do shorter completions that go for more yac show improvement? On the contrary, it tends to a better system or better receivers than it does improved QB play.

Absolutely this is a difference of opinion. And an opinion that one can't better evidence (or "tangibly prove" as you said) because we don't have the relevant advanced statistics to come to a more objective conclusion.

As for the tight window throws, I know Dalton has hit some this season. He's hit some last season as well. When I get time in the next day or 2, I'll pull up the game threads from several weeks ago where the normal homers are complaining about Dalton not seeing/hitting open receivers or holding the ball too long. He obviously doesn't have the comfort level to consistently throw those passes, nor has he shown the ability to consistently complete them either.

 

[flamingrey]

I'll give you the top six. Schaub is maybe third best on his team(Foster, AJohnson). Ryan has the best pair of receivers in football (White, Jones). Do you think they might make him look a little bit better? Stafford has Megatron, and Rivers is totally overrated.

I was wrong about Stafford. As I mentioned it was an oversight. The Schaub argument is a good one, but as I also mentioned, the team has done well without each of them. All allowed by the defense of course. That's an argument that could be made any which way.

In a way I can feel for Rivers. From a coaching standpoint, it's almost as bad as the Bengals with Marvin, though Norv has a bigger hand in the offense. The talent on that team has only depleted over the years and they haven't done anything to make it better. Is he or was he ever as good as his stats indicated, of course not as evidenced by his current play (same argument I make for Dalton now), but he also isn't as bad as his current stats show because he has little to work with.

Ryan may have the best pair of receivers, but he's a damn good QB. Receivers can make their respective QB's better without actually being better than the QB. Welker always made Brady better as does Gronk now. But there's no doubt who gets the most out of the pairing. Same with Brees and Graham. Etc.

 

[flamingrey]

I would say JJ Watt and maybe even Jonathan Joseph could be better than Schaub.

Offensive MVP.

 

[flamingrey]

I honestly do not know what you have against Andy Dalton, but man it must be something embarrassing for you to be the animated about such a good young player.

I have nothing against Dalton. Nor am I animated. The "animation" is only perceived when you have to fight off so many homers at one time.

The only person who should be embarrassed is the one that changes his opinion every 3-4 weeks based on what's going on in each of those stretches without putting anything in perspective (i.e. tunnel vision).

 

[cincygrad]

3-4 weeks represents more than a tenth of Dalton's entire career at this point..... It's a meaningful stretch and he has responded well to being called out by his coach.

 

[kramer1]

3-4 weeks represents more than a tenth of Dalton's entire career at this point..... It's a meaningful stretch and he has responded well to being called out by his coach.

Wake me up when he does well against the Steelers or Ravens.

 

[cincygrad]

Wake me up when he does well against the Steelers or Ravens.

I agree that his stats will be worth nothing if he can't figure out how to beat the two best teams in the division. I've been drinking a lot over the holiday weekend, but I'm starting to believe he'll take at least one of the last two games this season.

 

[flamingrey]

3-4 weeks represents more than a tenth of Dalton's entire career at this point..... It's a meaningful stretch and he has responded well to being called out by his coach.

Didn't he play horribly the game following his being called out?

 

[cincygrad]

Didn't he play horribly the game following his being called out?

Not sure of your definition of horrible. The game after he was called out was the Denver game. He threw for 299 yards in that game, overcame a horrible special teams mistake (2nd half KO returned for touchdown) and drove his team to the lead over Denver in the 4th quarter. Manning was simply better -- Manning answered with a long drive and a touchdown. Dalton basically threw one bad pass all day.

 

[bengaldoug]

Wake me up when he does well against the Steelers or Ravens.

He played pretty well in the first Ravens game last year, overcoming early mistakes to be firing at the end zone at the end of the game trying to tie after being down 21 points. As far as the Steelers go, he's probably fucked, because they have owned us since long before he arrived. They've done no worse with Andy than they did with Palmer all those years before.

Of course there's the old "Carson Palmer owns the Ravens" bit I used to kid Cravn with. Upon further review, Carson owned Brian Billick. That pretty much stopped as soon as Harbaugh took over in Baltimore.

All in all, if Dalton's ever going to have success against those two, now would be the time to do it.