What did Cincy get from Oakland

[sloucho]

Dre Kirkpatrick
the 35th-37th pick this year
a $50,000,000 Savings
a playoff Berth
15 wins and 13 L's
a Better, younger, Cheaper QB who now has played


What did Oakland Get?

29 Turnovers in 20 Starts
a 83 QB rating
7 wins and 14 Loses in 21 Games with Palmer playing
$50,000,000 in expenses


Who won the Trade?

 

[sloucho]

Actually an 81.8 Rating in his Time in oakland. Same rating as Ponder

Much worse than Fitzpatrick.

 

[flamingrey]

You're new here so you may not know:

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/cincinnati-bengals/77039-carson-palmer-sucks.html

 

[Servo]

Asking who won that trade is kinda like asking who won at Little Big Horn.

 

[flamingrey]

Asking who won that trade is kinda like asking who won at Little Big Horn.

I'm curious who you think won the Falcons/Bengals non-trade.

Same logic applies here.

You can only make that kind of determination after the fact. It's obvious the Raiders did not win the trade as it hasn't yielded any real results nor is it likely to in the future, so that's not the point of contention. But before rewarding the Bengals winners of anything, let's allow it to play out. Kirkpatrick so far, meh, but he has plenty of time.

 

[cincygrad]

I'm curious who you think won the Falcons/Bengals non-trade.

Same logic applies here.

You can only make that kind of determination after the fact. It's obvious the Raiders did not win the trade as it hasn't yielded any real results nor is it likely to in the future, so that's not the point of contention. But before rewarding the Bengals winners of anything, let's allow it to play out. Kirkpatrick so far, meh, but he has plenty of time.

Honestly, I don't think it matters what they get out of the draft picks at this point. If Palmer had never requested out of Cincinnati, he would have never been replaced. Mike Brown is a 'loyalty' guy and you know he would have continued to demand that Palmer be the guy as long as he was a good soldier for the team and a good guy in the press. I agreed with Palmer that his time with Cincinnati was 'done.' They weren't going any further with him and he wasn't going any further with them. Ultimately he did them a favor by not making them hold onto him any longer -- They are now younger at receiver and have a quarterback that I think has made real progress in his second year. Dre does not inspire great confidence for the future and neither does the potential second rounder (we screw up many more picks than succeed)..... But, I'm happy with the deal thus far.

As for the other side of the deal.... I see no real way the Raiders can win this trade. The issues they have with that team can't be corrected with one or even two offseasons. Even if they did completely re-tool the team for a run in three years, do you really think they'd try to do it with a 35 year old quarterback?

 

[bengaldoug]

Honestly, I don't think it matters what they get out of the draft picks at this point. If Palmer had never requested out of Cincinnati, he would have never been replaced. Mike Brown is a 'loyalty' guy and you know he would have continued to demand that Palmer be the guy as long as he was a good soldier for the team and a good guy in the press. I agreed with Palmer that his time with Cincinnati was 'done.' They weren't going any further with him and he wasn't going any further with them. Ultimately he did them a favor by not making them hold onto him any longer -- They are now younger at receiver and have a quarterback that I think has made real progress in his second year. Dre does not inspire great confidence for the future and neither does the potential second rounder (we screw up many more picks than succeed)..... But, I'm happy with the deal thus far.

As for the other side of the deal.... I see no real way the Raiders can win this trade. The issues they have with that team can't be corrected with one or even two offseasons. Even if they did completely re-tool the team for a run in three years, do you really think they'd try to do it with a 35 year old quarterback?

Completely agree with every point. Dalton's stats for the season to date absolutely support the "real progress."

QB rating --- 80.5 in 2011 (20th) 94.0 in 2012 (11th)
comp % --- 58.1 in 2011 (22nd) 63.5 in 2012 (11th)
ypa --- 6.6 in 2011 (25th) 7.4 in 2012 (11th)
td/int --- 1.53 in 2011 (15th) 2.0 in 2012 (9th)
ypg --- 212 in 2011 (26th) 257.1 in 2012 (14th)

That's tangible and significant improvement in every measurable area. Also, his td% of 6.1 is tied for fourth best in the league, and in 2011 that number was under 4 percent. The team is scoring about 5 ppg more than last year. The schedule is equally as sorry as last year to date, but they do have a win over the Super Bowl champs of last year, and that's one more win against a winning team than they had all last year. I won't argue with those who say his downfield accuracy could be better, but in his second year he has moved forward more than could have been expected.

 

[flamingrey]

Honestly, I don't think it matters what they get out of the draft picks at this point. If Palmer had never requested out of Cincinnati, he would have never been replaced. Mike Brown is a 'loyalty' guy and you know he would have continued to demand that Palmer be the guy as long as he was a good soldier for the team and a good guy in the press. I agreed with Palmer that his time with Cincinnati was 'done.' They weren't going any further with him and he wasn't going any further with them. Ultimately he did them a favor by not making them hold onto him any longer -- They are now younger at receiver and have a quarterback that I think has made real progress in his second year. Dre does not inspire great confidence for the future and neither does the potential second rounder (we screw up many more picks than succeed)..... But, I'm happy with the deal thus far.

As for the other side of the deal.... I see no real way the Raiders can win this trade. The issues they have with that team can't be corrected with one or even two offseasons. Even if they did completely re-tool the team for a run in three years, do you really think they'd try to do it with a 35 year old quarterback?

I agree with everything you just said (minus the "real progress" of Dalton, but that's for another thread). I'm extremely happy with the trade as well from the standpoint of where we were to what we got. While I believe a 1st and 2nd isn't overpaying for a QB, considering we were able to get that for a guy who was never going to play for us again, it's hard not to be pleased.

I'm just trying to throw some reality into this that the Bengals aren't some sort of outright winners of this. Not yet at least.

Also, consider what the Bengals went through throughout the 90's and before the Bengals got Carson. I won't speak for anyone else, but I would have been very happy trading a couple picks for a QB even if the only purpose was to have hope. And some Raiders fans feel some of that as well. Point being, it's not as black and white as some people would like to believe.

 

[flamingrey]

Completely agree with every point. Dalton's stats for the season to date absolutely support the "real progress."

QB rating --- 80.5 in 2011 (20th) 94.0 in 2012 (11th)
comp % --- 58.1 in 2011 (22nd) 63.5 in 2012 (11th)
ypa --- 6.6 in 2011 (25th) 7.4 in 2012 (11th)
td/int --- 1.53 in 2011 (15th) 2.0 in 2012 (9th)
ypg --- 212 in 2011 (26th) 257.1 in 2012 (14th)

That's tangible and significant improvement in every measurable area. Also, his td% of 6.1 is tied for fourth best in the league, and in 2011 that number was under 4 percent. The team is scoring about 5 ppg more than last year. The schedule is equally as sorry as last year to date, but they do have a win over the Super Bowl champs of last year, and that's one more win against a winning team than they had all last year. I won't argue with those who say his downfield accuracy could be better, but in his second year he has moved forward more than could have been expected.

Prior to the last 3 weeks, Dalton had below average statistics almost across the board. Then he played the 2 worst teams in the league and one team who didn't care to show up.

Dalton (moreso Gruden imo) has gotten better against the crappy teams/defenses in the league. Whoopdee damn doo. Show me against the better teams/defenses.

This is the same kind of stuff that propped Alex Smith up as the next coming last season - and now a 2nd year QB is just about showing him up. It's the same garbage stats that propped Flacco up for years (though I will say I truly believe he has improved NOW), and allowed homers like crav to call him the best in the league.

 

[cincygrad]

Prior to the last 3 weeks, Dalton had below average statistics almost across the board. Then he played the 2 worst teams in the league and one team who didn't care to show up.

Dalton (moreso Gruden imo) has gotten better against the crappy teams/defenses in the league. Whoopdee damn doo. Show me against the better teams/defenses.

This is the same kind of stuff that propped Alex Smith up as the next coming last season - and now a 2nd year QB is just about showing him up. It's the same garbage stats that propped Flacco up for years (though I will say I truly believe he has improved NOW), and allowed homers like crav to call him the best in the league.

It's easy to criticize and frame his numbers how you want them to be framed. If you compare Palmer's numbers through his first 27 games with Dalton through his first 27 games, you won't see much of a difference at all.... And that even includes the fantastic run Palmer put together at the beginning of 2005.... And it includes the fact that Palmer didn't even have to start in his first year.

It's hard to compare passers from year to year, so these comparisons (2005 to now) might not hold water.... But the idea that Palmer was much better for the Bengals does not hold water either statistically or in the win column.

 

[bengaldoug]

A good measure of offense is to compare the team stats to opponent's defensive stats. Here they are, with the offensive stats on the left and the opponent's defensive stats on the right of the slash.

Points per game 25.6/23.5 net +2.1
Yards per rush 4.2/4.1 net +0.1
Completion pct 63.5%/61.1% net +2.4%
Yards per pass 7.2/6.7 net +0.5
Yards per play 5.8/5.6 net +0.2
Yards per point 14.1/15.1 net -1.0 (in this case the negative differential is good)

So in every way measurable this is an above average offense, overall, for the season to date.

Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

 

[flamingrey]

It's easy to criticize and frame his numbers how you want them to be framed. If you compare Palmer's numbers through his first 27 games with Dalton through his first 27 games, you won't see much of a difference at all.... And that even includes the fantastic run Palmer put together at the beginning of 2005.... And it includes the fact that Palmer didn't even have to start in his first year.

It's hard to compare passers from year to year, so these comparisons (2005 to now) might not hold water.... But the idea that Palmer was much better for the Bengals does not hold water either statistically or in the win column.

I'm not framing any more than anyone else is. Where was this post 3 weeks ago when Dalton's averages were very pedestrian? Now all of a sudden his numbers are inflated after 3 great weeks against horrible teams/defenses and we're talking about how much he's improved and how the stats prove it? Pot calling the kettle black.

Very few QB's that have come into this league have been as NFL ready as Dalton as been...ever. So to compare his stats of his first 27 games is misleading. I'm sure they'd compare to Peyton Manning's numbers as well, along with many other greats.

As further evidence, despite the figures showing similar statistics and Carson having sat out a season, if you can look at Dalton now and think he's even close to Carson in 2005, you should take your meds. You almost made my point for me.

Not sure where the Palmer comparison is coming from (not from me), we all have our opinions, but I won't get into the win-loss debate. Unless you're talking about the best of the best, games are not only won and lost on a single players shoulders.

Alex Smith is the easiest comparison to make. And for the record, I believe Dalton is better than Smith.

 

[flamingrey]

So in every way measurable this is an above average offense, overall, for the season to date.

Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

And Gruden is a helluva OC. And Green is the MVP and probably best WR in the league.

It's hard to twist that...well maybe not for you.

Oh, and Alex Smith is a top 5 QB. "Figures don't lie, but liars figure."

 

[Servo]

how the draft picks play out is irrelevant. the fact of the matter is that high draft picks (especially with the new CBA) are the most prcious commodity in the league...and the raiders gave up two for an immobile, erratic QB with questionable leadership qualities. I think how Palmer performs is relevant. He would need to play at a very high level to justify mortgaging your picks.

I look at it like this...if i sell you a house in a shitty neighborhood for more than twice what its worth i ripped you off...it doesnt matter if i piss the money away. If on the off chance the neighborhood rebounds and the propery value increases then it evens out.

 

[bengaldoug]

This is the same kind of stuff that propped Alex Smith up as the next coming last season - and now a 2nd year QB is just about showing him up. It's the same garbage stats that propped Flacco up for years (though I will say I truly believe he has improved NOW), and allowed homers like crav to call him the best in the league.

Alex Smith is very efficient, throwing 20-25 passes per game, much as Big Ben did his rookie year. The only argument I would make against him is he benefits from a superior running game (5.4 ypc/ 4.4 defense = +1.0 net), easily the strongest running game in the league. That makes the play action game deadly. Flacco has Ray Rice, which makes his day much easier. Dalton has a mediocre running game, that has only come on lately. If the running game continues its recent trend Dalton's numbers will continue to grow. Not to mention there has been no production at #2 receiver until Sanu's emergence the last few games.

 

[cincygrad]

I'm not framing any more than anyone else is. Where was this post 3 weeks ago when Dalton's averages were very pedestrian? Now all of a sudden his numbers are inflated after 3 great weeks against horrible teams/defenses and we're talking about how much he's improved and how the stats prove it? Pot calling the kettle black.

Very few QB's that have come into this league have been as NFL ready as Dalton as been...ever. So to compare his stats of his first 27 games is misleading. I'm sure they'd compare to Peyton Manning's numbers as well, along with many other greats.

As further evidence, despite the figures showing similar statistics and Carson having sat out a season, if you can look at Dalton now and think he's even close to Carson in 2005, you should take your meds. You almost made my point for me.

Not sure where the Palmer comparison is coming from (not from me), we all have our opinions, but I won't get into the win-loss debate. Unless you're talking about the best of the best, games are not only won and lost on a single players shoulders.

Alex Smith is the easiest comparison to make. And for the record, I believe Dalton is better than Smith.

The topic of this post is Palmer. Dalton was drafted to replace Palmer. I think it's a fairly natural comparison.

BTW -- Three weeks ago Dalton was in the top 15 in QB rating. Not the best stat, but it's not like he was the worst qb in the league.

 

[cincygrad]

PS -- Not sure why you dismiss his performance in the last three games. Yes the Raiders suck. No argument there. But the Chiefs have been solid on defense for most of the season. In fact they gave Peyton some issues yesterday. The Giants are one of the top 10 teams in the league and they limited Rodgers to 10 points last night.

 

[sloucho]

Palmers Teams are

10 and 32 in his last 42 games.

That is a robust 23.8 Winning % for Palmer led teams. So, over the last 42 games, he has been worse than

Tim Couch - 22 W 37 L - 37.2 W%

Derek Anderson 18 W 25 L - 41 W%

Kelly Holcomb 8 and 16 - 33 W%

Colt McCoy - 6 and 15 - 27 W%

Kyle Boller - 20 and 27 - 42%

Jon Kitna 50 and 74 - 40 W%

Gus Frerotte - 45 and 47 - 49 W%

JP Losman - 10 and 33 - 30.3 w%

 

[cincygrad]

How does Dalton compare to Smith? Why is this a comparison?

Alex Smith was a 1st overall draft pick that struggled terribly, lost his job many times and managed to stick with his team through a coaching change due to a lock-out shortened off-season. He put up nice numbers under one of the best young coaches in the league and was aided by a great running attack and one of the best defense in the league.

Dalton was a second round choice that was never in danger of losing his job. He plays for an average-at-best head coach with no running game and a questionable defense.

Aside from the fact that you hate both players, what is the common thread?

 

[CrashDavisSports]

All I see is Flaming trying to figure out a way to downplay Dalton any chance he gets.

The season consists of 16 weeks, not the cherry pikcing you choose to do.

All good QB's get to play against sub standard defenses during a year, same as Dalton gets to.

Most good QB's have a pro-bowl WR or TE.

Most good QB's struggle against top 8 defenses. I don't think Dalton is unique in this case.

2nd year player.

He is on pace for 4000 yards and over 30 TD's. Back in the day I would have given up both my left and right nut for a QB for stats like that in Cincinnati during the days of Akili, Kitna, Klinger and many many more. Palmer threw for 4000 yards only twice, and only over 30 TD's once in his career. However, Palmer is the man, and Dalton isn't good enough for shit. I just don't understand the logic.