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Too Early 2018 Draft Thoughts

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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My source data was comparing Fantasy Pros' ECR versus Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP dated May 16. If a number is shown, it represents the overall rank in either ECR or ADP.

QB
Despite his most recent fragility, Aaron Rodgers is still the first QB in both ECR (32) and ADP (27). I kid, but I'd still take him first ahead of anyone else too.
Despite lasting only 7 NFL games before his own injury, Deshaun Watson is the 2nd QB being drafted per ADP (34). Seems like even most experts are just as enamored with him enough to have his ECR 4th (53).
Have no fear, the basement is filled with QB bargains. The productive Philip Rivers is ranked 14 (105 ECR). And Matt Ryan gets no love either ranked 16 (115 ECR).

RB
Todd Gurley
seems to be the consensus #1 in both ECR and ADP. Not for me.
Actually, there don't seem to be too many gulfs between ECR and ADP for the other RB.
One difference was Carlos Hyde going 20th (43 ADP) versus 28th (70 ECR).
Another was Rashad Penny going 24th (55 ECR) versus some hesitancy in ADP ranked 37th (100).
Not too far behind was some mild rookie love by ECR for Royce Freeman (75) versus ADP (126).

WR
The first 4 WR off the board in both ECR and ADP in sequence are: Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, ODB, and Julio Jones.
After that Devante Adams makes a jump in ADP as the 5th WR (14). Five more WR are ranked ahead of Adams in ECR (19).
Another jump are by those die-hard Josh Gordon fans. ADP has Gordon ranked 15th (37). The experts aren't as forgiving in ECR (45), but still crazy IMO.
Despite not having a team to play on, Dez Bryant's ECR (74) is nearly half his ADP (158).

TE
Was actually kind of shocked to see Gronk going later in ADP (28) than his ECR (23). Maybe in the grand scheme of things it's not much of a difference, but Gronk owners love to pull the trigger early to make sure they land him.
Most all TE were pretty close to their ECR and ADP. But of the rookie TE, owners were more willing to take a late-round flier on Mike Gesicki (ADP 149) and Hayden Hurst (ADP 159) as opposed to the conservative ECR (202 and 227 respectively). I agree. Why take a flier on the mediocre vets Kittle, Ebron or Hooper when a shiny, new rookie is staring you in the face?
 
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