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Treff's 2021 NFL predictions (which most likely won't be close at all)

TREFF

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Well, they did draft Fields at least.

This year is about getting him ready to excel next year. Then the Bears can actually contend.
If the Packers ship Rodgers out of the division... :)
 

Clayton

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Wanna get this in before the season starts.
I predict the Bears look more disconnected than last season.
In 2020, Nagy lamented how he should have used preseason games to help execute better.
So what did we get in 2021 preseason?
Andy Dalton attempted 21 passes in 3 games.
David Montgomery rushed 1 time.
Robinson and Mooney - zero receptions.

Did I mention that I think Nagy's an idiot?
There was a year in STL that Jeff Fisher switched QBs at halftime of game 1. I could see that being the Bears this year.
 

tlance

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If the Packers ship Rodgers out of the division... :)

Even if they don’t.

Good QBs on a rookie deal are such a huge edge.

And I think Fields is going to be really good.
 

TREFF

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There was a year in STL that Jeff Fisher switched QBs at halftime of game 1. I could see that being the Bears this year.
I think the Red Rocket would half to seriously implode at takeoff to be removed at any point before the bye week. I truly do think Nagy REALLY wants to give Fields the same treatment they gave Mahommes in KC. I doubt they'll be able to, but I do truly buy that they WANT to.
 

Clayton

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I truly do think Nagy REALLY wants to give Fields the same treatment they gave Mahommes in KC. I doubt they'll be able to, but I do truly buy that they WANT to.
I think you're right but if he is losing 17-3 at halftime then job security becomes his first priority
 

TREFF

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I think you're right but if he is losing 17-3 at halftime then job security becomes his first priority
Is he really under the delusion of being extended with anything but an exceptional season..like a division title season? Nagy might suck as a HC, but he's not an overall idiot, he knows he's done baring a miracle. Could Fields bring that?
 

Clayton

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Is he really under the delusion of being extended with anything but an exceptional season..like a division title season? Nagy might suck as a HC, but he's not an overall idiot, he knows he's done baring a miracle. Could Fields bring that?
Fields is an elite level runner. He could Tebow his way into some wins.

Nagy is above .500 as a head coach. He probably just needs to make the playoffs
 

averagejoe

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Nagy is above .500 as a head coach. He probably just needs to make the playoffs
Smoke and mirrors. Plus a decent defense (which Nagy had nothing to do with).
Nagy's offensive ranks: 21, 29, 26.
 

TREFF

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I would imagine Nagy would have to make a deep playoff run, and have significant offensive improvement in order to stay in Chicago. I think he'll be back in the OC/offensive assistant steno pool for 2022 with anything less.
 

Clayton

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Smoke and mirrors. Plus a decent defense (which Nagy had nothing to do with).
Nagy's offensive ranks: 21, 29, 26.
Honestly, I wasn't too impressed with Nagy in KC. He is also supposed to be a QB guy so thats why I figure his job rides on Fields.

Andy Dalton hasn't had a winning season since 2015. If he is your starting QB in 2021 then either your GM or Head Coach or both need to be fired.
 

TREFF

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Honestly, I wasn't too impressed with Nagy in KC. He is also supposed to be a QB guy so thats why I figure his job rides on Fields.

Andy Dalton hasn't had a winning season since 2015. If he is your starting QB in 2021 then either your GM or Head Coach or both need to be fired.
Well he rode Reid's coattails for sure. But, Reid let him do so for almost a decade, continuing to promote him up the ladder, and I don't think anyone considers Reid an idiot. So he must know something.
 

averagejoe

You've pulled one of the classic blunders.
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either your GM or Head Coach or both need to be fired.
Two things.
1) John Fox was run out of town but he got decent production out of Trubisky and Jordan Howard. Nagy couldnt work with either and Nagy is supposed to be a an offensive guru.
2) some want to run GM Ryan Pace out of town too. Seeing how he is stuck in between president Ted Phillips (who is not a football guy) and Nagy who seems to make poor decisions, I am willing to give Pace a longer leash since he is getting seemingly zero help from the brass around him.
 

TREFF

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Well let's see just how bad I was now that were about 2/3's through the season.


NFC west

LAR - 10-7 ** could still happen, not bad.

Seattle 9-8* currently 3-7..RW injury definitely blew this one

ARZ 8-9
The Cards already bettered this win total..whoops

SF 8-9 ..
. Sitting 5-5, right on track


NFC South

TB 14-3 **
they'd have to win out to match the record, but on pace to win the div.

NO 10-7*
5-5, not likely to get a WC, but possible

ATL 8-9
4-6...on pace

Carolina 6-11
5-6..not too far off, but they'll likely finish 2 games better than I thought


NFCEast

Dallas 11-6**
7-3..right on track

WFT 10-7*
. 4-6...whoops

Philly 5-12
5-6...a smaller whoops, but wrong none the less

NYG 3-14
3-7, I may have under estimated the Gmen's suckiness factor


NFC North

GB 13-4**
. 8-3, slight over estimation perhaps, but will win that division

Minn 9-8
. 5-5, right on pace

Chicago 6-11
. 3-7..3 wins and 4 losses ROS?? Could happen, certainly

Detriot 4-13
. 0-fer...well I definitely under estimated Goff's suckiness


AFCSouth

INDY 11-6 **
6-5, probably choose the wrong division winner here--maybe. That's 2 Div. Champs I missed

Tenn 10-7 *
. 8-3, they've over performed my prediction thus far, but no Henry really makes a 3-4 record ROS a possibility

Houston 2-15
. 2-8..well, might still happen, but they likely do a Lil better

Jax 2-15
. they've played even worse than I expected, yet somehow are on pace to best my prediction.


AFC East

Buff 13-4**
. 6-4, Josh Allen has been more like rookie J. Allen than last year's J. Allen, still could win Div. But definitely aren't matching my prediction

NE 10-7
on pace, might even sneak a div. Title

Miami 5-12
. 4-7, yep, pretty close

NYJ 3-14
2-8, I'm not sure the Jets win another game, but close


AFC North

PItt 12-5**
5-4-1..I blew this one, big time

Clev 11-6*
. 6-5..this one too probably

Balt 10-7
. 7-3, well mostly on pace, why didn't I pick Balt. to make the playoffs??

Cincy 5-12
. 6-4, again..I pretty much blew this entire division


AFC West

KC 15-2**
wow..WAY off, 7-4, still figure to win div. But far from certain

LAC 11-6*
6-4..doubtful they go 5-2, and a WC seems a stretch

LVR 8-9
. 5-5...yep, mediocre or slightly below, as expected.

Den 6-11
5-5..only game on Denver's schedule I've missed is the win over Dallas, I think it'll be right on, plus or minus 1 game, when it's over


Super bowl - KC over GB


NFL MVP- Josh Allen
. Well that ain't happening

Offensive ROY - Mac Jones (I'm expecting Lawrence to have a rough year one, tough division, rookie HC, his style may lead to lost of missed time..etc)

that is almost guaranteed at this point

Defensive ROY- Micah Parsons- no big sack masters in this years draft, and while I love Surtain, I'm not sure a handful of INT's beat out a ton of tackles

so is this one

Comeback play of the year - Dak Prescott, just by a hair over CMAC in a very tight race.

Very possible

Passing yardage leader- Herbert. Possible but not likely
Passing TD leader- Herbert minor miracle if he does it

Rushing yardage leader- Henry
. Obviously not happening

Rushing TD leader - Zeke Elliot (I anticipate a ton of passing from the Dallas O, and a whole bunch of DPI's in the end zone leading to one yard plunges for Zeke..in addition to him just being that good)
. definitely not happening



Strictly fantasy predicitons-


Best value at QB - Matt Stafford. Overlooked for the flashy Mahommes/Allen/ Jackson types, The McVeigh Offense and the weapons he has, vs where he's being drafted, should be a high "rate of return on investment". A close second to Herbert, but he is being drafted relatively highly.
. It's subjective, but I'd say this was correct..its either him or Brady


Biggest bust at QB- Lamar Jackson. The guy still can't pass, still doesn't have decent weapons to use if he could, and now he's down to his back up RB the entirety of the return on investment for Lamar lies in his production with his legs, and its just far to unpredictable that he can keep doing that, at least to the point that makes it sensible to draft him in the3rd round. Honorable mention to Jalen Hurts. But he is being drafted as the QB12, which is the last "assumed" intentional QB1, which tells me he's likely being drafted as most people's QB2 while a few other team owners wait on QB's altogether, and can a guy truly be a bust when the intention was to stash him on the bench to begin with?
well firstly, Hurts is in the running for best value, SO..WHOOPS!. But as to Lamar, drafted as the QB#2, mostly, and currently QB#9..ONLY Kyler Murray (QB#11) could be considered more disappointing, strictly on a fantasy points vs draft position value


Best Value at RB - Kenneth Gainwell. I'm tempted to go with Stevenson here, or maybe one of the Houston backs, but I decided I want to keep it within the realm of what's currently on the board and not some one who needs an injury or drastic change in his currently forecasted role to realize that value. Gainwell, currently being drafted somewhere in the 12-th -15th round, even in a split with Sanders, is likely to return flex option worthy stats, especially once the season gets going.
. OMG..wow was that wrong


Biggest Bust at RB- Chase Edmonds- just don't see it. when given the opportunity to be the guy, he simply hasn't been THE guy. granted that's a small sample size, but it's what we've got to work with. Add that to Conners' presence, and it just isn't what you're looking for out of the RB2 spot, which is what he's being drafted as. You'd be better off with Gus or J. Williams or even Sermon, all being drafted after Edmonds (with current ADP data)...
even b4 the injury, this was on pace. Sure you can count D. Henry here, but as it pertains to dudes who haven't sustained a season ending, or long term, injury..Edmonds is right up there. Barkley deserves consideration as well, as even when he does play, he generates next to nothing.



Best Value at WR- Marquez Callaway. the WR1 for Sean Peyton's attack for at least 8 weeks, and likely the WR2 from that point on, being drafted in the 10th, or later. Signe me up please

FML..another huge swing and miss.

Biggest bust at WR - Terry MCLaurin. Its standard operating procedure for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Set the world on fire for half the season or so, and then have a bad game, and be replaced. In WFT's case, when that happens, and it will, it'll be a death sentence for their WR's. For a guy with that looming on the horizon, the #10 WR is just too danged high fro my blood

Right on Fitzpatrick, wrong on McLaurin and Heinicke..big time wrong


Best Value at TE -MIke Gesicki. Currently going somewhere in the 8th to 10th round, and easily the most reliable receiving option on a team that's likely to be playing form behind more often than not, plus a QB who is still a work in progress, seems like an awful lot of opportunity to me.

ehhh..no. That would likely be Ertz, Henry, Knox or Schulz..all were better value, but Geisiki has given what was expected, currently hovering around TE#7-ish depending on scoring


Biggest bust at TE - Kyle PItts- this one is easy imho. Rookie TE's are historically bad fantasy investments, at least from a redraft perspective. He'd have to set new rookie records at the position to justify being drafted over guys like Hockensen Thomas and Fant, all of which have proven to be at minimum as productive as the best rookie TE seasons of all time. Now if Atlanta chooses to use him as the WR#2 and he just happens to be a TE, than all bets are off. But if he's an actual TE..it's not gonna be as fruitful as many would hope
Relative to where you had to take him, yes he's been a bust. Outperformed by at least 5 TE's drafted below him..or undrafted, and nearly matched by such studs like Schultz, and fellow rookie Friermouth ain't far behind him either and was likely undrafted in most redrafts. Obviously Kittle has been disappointing, but not due to his production when on the field.
 

Clayton

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My hot take was terrible but the playoff teams are the same playoff teams I was expecting.

Trevor Lawrence having a bad rookie year seems like something that needs to be talked about more. No idea how Meyer keeps that job.
 

TREFF

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My hot take was terrible but the playoff teams are the same playoff teams I was expecting.

Trevor Lawrence having a bad rookie year seems like something that needs to be talked about more. No idea how Meyer keeps that job.
Rookie QB's that don't have a mediocre, or worse, year are the outliers, even today. Used to be QB's were expected to sit for a year or two, maybe more before ever truly getting a shot. Aikmen sucked his rookie year he was 0-11, Peyton Manning led the league in INT's and had a 3-13 record his rookie year. Because that's what happens when you thrust a kid straight into a starting role from college. It wasn't until Big Ben won a super bowl as a rookie, that somewhere that idea got lost. So rookie QB's having a terrible seasons, I don't put that on any coach, regardless of his name or pedigree. Nagy is not responsible for Fields not playing well, Robert Saleh isn't to blame for Zach WIlson's struggles..what blame they do have, is playing them before they're ready. And in that regard, I do blame Meyer. But, in that same breath, what else was he supposed to do? He certainly couldn't play Minshew over the #1 overall pick, he certainly couldn't make a move for a veteran QB, AND spend the #1 overall pick on a QB. So, rookie QB and hope for the best was the only realistic option, and he got a typical rookie QB season.
Wilson isn't ready (may not ever be ready), Fields wasn't ready, obviously neither was Trevor Lawrence, as even with shitty coaching, a QB ready to take the reigns will have at least moments of brilliance, and outside of week #1, he's had very very few. This year's exception seems to be Mac Jones, and he hasn't exactly been stellar, he's just been solid and steady, mostly, and minimizing stupid "rookie" mistakes
Trey Lance..isn't ready. but also. isn't playing except in sporadic spurts where it makes since to play him..well done on you Shanny Jr.
I still expect a bright future for Lawrence, even with Urban Meyer, if he hangs.

Now..that's not at all an effort to defend Urban Meyer. Quite frankly I don't know how he's still around. And I don't think he's the guy to groom a new NFL QB having no experience in the NFL himself. He needs to go
 

Clayton

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Rookie QB's that don't have a mediocre, or worse, year are the outliers, even today. Used to be QB's were expected to sit for a year or two, maybe more before ever truly getting a shot. Aikmen sucked his rookie year he was 0-11, Peyton Manning led the league in INT's and had a 3-13 record his rookie year. Because that's what happens when you thrust a kid straight into a starting role from college. It wasn't until Big Ben won a super bowl as a rookie, that somewhere that idea got lost. So rookie QB's having a terrible seasons, I don't put that on any coach, regardless of his name or pedigree. Nagy is not responsible for Fields not playing well, Robert Saleh isn't to blame for Zach WIlson's struggles..what blame they do have, is playing them before they're ready. And in that regard, I do blame Meyer. But, in that same breath, what else was he supposed to do? He certainly couldn't play Minshew over the #1 overall pick, he certainly couldn't make a move for a veteran QB, AND spend the #1 overall pick on a QB. So, rookie QB and hope for the best was the only realistic option, and he got a typical rookie QB season.
Wilson isn't ready (may not ever be ready), Fields wasn't ready, obviously neither was Trevor Lawrence, as even with shitty coaching, a QB ready to take the reigns will have at least moments of brilliance, and outside of week #1, he's had very very few. This year's exception seems to be Mac Jones, and he hasn't exactly been stellar, he's just been solid and steady, mostly, and minimizing stupid "rookie" mistakes
Trey Lance..isn't ready. but also. isn't playing except in sporadic spurts where it makes since to play him..well done on you Shanny Jr.
I still expect a bright future for Lawrence, even with Urban Meyer, if he hangs.

Now..that's not at all an effort to defend Urban Meyer. Quite frankly I don't know how he's still around. And I don't think he's the guy to groom a new NFL QB having no experience in the NFL himself. He needs to go
I think there is a bigger story with Jacksonville and their inability to develop the players they draft but Meyer has made a number of interesting decisions. So here is a recent list of QBs drafted in the top 10 before the last draft:

Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitch Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz

Only 1 sat, I believe and that was Mahomes. Josh Rosen was even replaced after 1 season. QBR has Lawrence as the 27th best QB as a rookie. Thats...not great. It says nothing about his career but he is definitely on the bottom half of that list.


I would also like to add that while Kyle Pitts isnt being super amazing, it isnt because he isnt super amazing. Its because he is literally the best skill player on the team and teams are taking him away. I dont think that fits the normal rookie TE narrative.
 

TREFF

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I think there is a bigger story with Jacksonville and their inability to develop the players they draft but Meyer has made a number of interesting decisions. So here is a recent list of QBs drafted in the top 10 before the last draft:

Joe Burrow
Tua
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitch Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz

Only 1 sat, I believe and that was Mahomes. Josh Rosen was even replaced after 1 season. QBR has Lawrence as the 27th best QB as a rookie. Thats...not great. It says nothing about his career but he is definitely on the bottom half of that list.


I would also like to add that while Kyle Pitts isnt being super amazing, it isnt because he isnt super amazing. Its because he is literally the best skill player on the team and teams are taking him away. I dont think that fits the normal rookie TE narrative.
Nearly the entirety of Pitts production has come from playing a WR role..as I mentioned it likely it would, and no it doesn't fit the traditional narrative...nor does it change him still being overdrafted as it relates to his fantasy production, and thus disappointing owners. Him being taken away from teams? Yes, that's true, and a savy fantasy owner should've seen that coming a mile away. And IF Pitts were playing a traditional TE, with his skillet, he'd be much harder for opposing teams to take away. But, because rookie TE's are rarely prepared to be an inline TE, they can't do that, so he's out wide, and in the slot. It's much harder to effectively bracket coverage an inline TE, than it is a guy lined up out wide . This prediction was not whether he'd be a good NFL player, it was about whether he'd be a disappointing fantasy TE or not.

I'm not entirely sure of the point your trying to make with the QB list, but most of those you listed did in fact sit to start the year. Due to injuries, or the HC hitting "fuck it", they did eventually play. Some week 3, some later, but most were not the intended starting QB opening up the year. And those who flourished later on after playing extensively year one, are outnumbered by those whose careers took a crap, or at best leveled off at mediocrity.
Yes a rookie QB playing decently or better,, as a rookie, certainly happens, but those are the exceptions. Expecting rookie QB's to give you anything substantial, is a losing proposition. I certainly don't fault Lawrence..he's rookie, he's played as any reasonable observer should expect. I certainly don't blame Meyer for his play..again, he's a rookie, I've seen what I expected. Should Meyer keep his job, and Lawrence doesn't evolve, doesn't improve in year 2? Then I put it one Meyer..and on Lawrence

Meyer has plenty of other reasons as to why he's a bad NFL HC and should be fired.
 
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Clayton

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Nearly the entirety of Pitts production has come from playing a WR role..as I mentioned it likely it would, and no it doesn't fit the traditional narrative...nor does it change him still being overdrafted as it relates to his fantasy production, and thus disappointing owners. Him being taken away from teams? Yes, that's true, and a savy fantasy owner should've seen that coming a mile away. And IF Pitts were playing a traditional TE, with his skillet, he'd be much harder for opposing teams to take away. But, because rookie TE's are rarely prepared to be an inline TE, they can't do that, so he's out wide, and in the slot. It's much harder to effectively bracket coverage an inline TE, than it is a guy lined up out wide . This prediction was not whether he'd be a good NFL player, it was about whether he'd be a disappointing fantasy TE or not.

I'm not entirely sure of the point your trying to make with the QB list, but most of those you listed did in fact sit to start the year. Due to injuries, or the HC hitting "fuck it", they did eventually play. Some week 3, some later, but most were not the intended starting QB opening up the year. And those who flourished later on after playing extensively year one, are outnumbered by those whose careers took a crap, or at best leveled off at mediocrity.
Yes a rookie QB playing decently or better,, as a rookie, certainly happens, but those are the exceptions. Expecting rookie QB's to give you anything substantial, is a losing proposition. I certainly don't fault Lawrence..he's rookie, he's played as any reasonable observer should expect. I certainly don't blame Meyer for his play..again, he's a rookie, I've seen what I expected. Should Meyer keep his job, and Lawrence doesn't evolve, doesn't improve in year 2? Then I put it one Meyer..and on Lawrence

Meyer has plenty of other reasons as to why he's a bad NFL HC and should be fired.
My main point with listing the QBs is just that Lawrence is doing pretty poorly based on expectations. I think thats pretty fair to say.

I will say that I was also on the 'Kyle Pitts is overvalued' train coming into the season but he also seemed a bit like a cheat because he is more of a WR. Its just that his value is overblown because Atlanta has an awful offense as shown in the past month. So basically Im saying that you were right but Im slightly surprised in the way you were right. Atlanta is clocking in at 27th in points per game. If you would've told me that at the beginning of the season then I would've figured they were a bottom 3 team in the league.
 
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