Treff's 2021 NFL predictions (which most likely won't be close at all)

[averagejoe]

Biggest bust at WR - Terry MCLaurin. Its standard operating procedure for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Set the world on fire for half the season or so, and then have a bad game, and be replaced. In WFT's case, when that happens, and it will, it'll be a death sentence for their WR's.

Wanted to address this too.
Earlier in the off-season, this topic came up.
If you separate the targets per position, the Washington QB trio of Haskins, Kyle Allen and Alex Smith, they only threw to the WR position 52% of the time. Yet it was enough for McClaurin to have 1118 yards.
By comparison, Fitzpatrick threw to the Miami WR 61% of the time which was for essentially 7 game starts (but was in 9 games).

As for Fitz being replaced, that part might be inevitable. Gunslinger Fitz can't help but throw interceptions. If Heinicke does take over, in his loan game (the wild card game), 63% of Heinicke's targets went to WR.
For me whether its Fitz or Heinie, they will look to the WR more than what McClaurin had last year.

Now maybe this is just me defending my pick? But I did research the pick before I took him.
Not to mention that Las Vegas has McClaurin hovering around 1400 yards on gambling lines (1 of 3 WR in that gambling range).

 

[Barilko]

@TREFF no critique from the hoser way up north

all i want to say is Great Write Up!! Solid Read....

 

[TREFF]

Wanted to address this too.
Earlier in the off-season, this topic came up.
If you separate the targets per position, the Washington QB trio of Haskins, Kyle Allen and Alex Smith, they only threw to the WR position 52% of the time. Yet it was enough for McClaurin to have 1118 yards.
By comparison, Fitzpatrick threw to the Miami WR 61% of the time which was for essentially 7 game starts (but was in 9 games).

As for Fitz being replaced, that part might be inevitable. Gunslinger Fitz can't help but throw interceptions. If Heinicke does take over, in his loan game (the wild card game), 63% of Heinicke's targets went to WR.
For me whether its Fitz or Heinie, they will look to the WR more than what McClaurin had last year.

Now maybe this is just me defending my pick? But I did research the pick before I took him.
Not to mention that Las Vegas has McClaurin hovering around 1400 yards on gambling lines (1 of 3 WR in that gambling range).

Well I won't defend mine nor pick apart yours, but I did say the point was to create conversation so....

I base my thinking on the onknown of what would be if/when Heinicke (or anyone else) takes over.
And again, I'm not saying he'd suck, it's just that in order to justify that investment, as the #10 WR, that's a ton of weekly, consistent, elite-ish production, and you're already on a slippery slope with the marginal, yet titillating, Fitzpatrick, take him away, and it's very hard to see that type of production continuing...for me

 

[averagejoe]

Fair enough.
I also went heavy on WR anyway.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Well I won't defend mine nor pick apart yours, but I did say the point was to create conversation so....

I base my thinking on the onknown of what would be if/when Heinicke (or anyone else) takes over.
And again, I'm not saying he'd suck, it's just that in order to justify that investment, as the #10 WR, that's a ton of weekly, consistent, elite-ish production, and you're already on a slippery slope with the marginal, yet titillating, Fitzpatrick, take him away, and it's very hard to see that type of production continuing...for me

I don’t see Fitzpatrick getting replaced like he has in the past. I think Washington is using him as their starter until he gets hurt. Every other team he has been on seems like he’s been backed up by a young and promising prospect at QB. That will not be the case this year.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Took me longer than it usually does, sorry. Feel free to tear it up and point out how ridiculous it is. The point is to generate discussion while we wait for this Thursday anyways, so, I encourage it in fact.

NFC west
LAR - 10-7 **
Seattle 9-8*
ARZ 8-9
SF 8-9

NFC South
TB 14-3 **
NO 10-7*
ATL 8-9
Carolina 6-11

NFCEast
Dallas 11-6**
WFT 10-7*
Philly 5-12
NYG 3-14

NFC North
GB 13-4**
Minn 9-8
Chicago 6-11
Detriot 4-13

AFCSouth
INDY 11-6 **
Tenn 10-7 *
Houston 2-15
Jax 2-15

AFC East
Buff 13-4**
NE 10-7
Miami 5-12
NYJ 3-14

AFC North
PItt 12-5**
Clev 11-6*
Balt 10-7
Cincy 5-12

AFC West
KC 15-2**
LAC 11-6*
LVR 8-9
Den 6-11

Super bowl - KC over GB

NFL MVP- Josh Allen
Offensive ROY - Mac Jones (I'm expecting Lawrence to have a rough year one, tough division, rookie HC, his style may lead to lost of missed time..etc)
Defensive ROY- Micah Parsons- no big sack masters in this years draft, and while I love Surtain, I'm not sure a handful of INT's beat out a ton of tackles
Comeback play of the year - Dak Prescott, just by a hair over CMAC in a very tight race.

Passing yardage leader- Herbert
Passing TD leader- Herbert
Rushing yardage leader- Henry
Rushing TD leader - Zeke Elliot (I anticipate a ton of passing from the Dallas O, and a whole bunch of DPI's in the end zone leading to one yard plunges for Zeke..in addition to him just being that good)


Strictly fantasy predicitons-

Best value at QB - Matt Stafford. Overlooked for the flashy Mahommes/Allen/ Jackson types, The McVeigh Offense and the weapons he has, vs where he's being drafted, should be a high "rate of return on investment". A close second to Herbert, but he is being drafted relatively highly.

Biggest bust at QB- Lamar Jackson. The guy still can't pass, still doesn't have decent weapons to use if he could, and now he's down to his back up RB the entirety of the return on investment for Lamar lies in his production with his legs, and its just far to unpredictable that he can keep doing that, at least to the point that makes it sensible to draft him in the3rd round. Honorable mention to Jalen Hurts. But he is being drafted as the QB12, which is the last "assumed" intentional QB1, which tells me he's likely being drafted as most people's QB2 while a few other team owners wait on QB's altogether, and can a guy truly be a bust when the intention was to stash him on the bench to begin with?

Best Value at RB - Kenneth Gainwell. I'm tempted to go with Stevenson here, or maybe one of the Houston backs, but I decided I want to keep it within the realm of what's currently on the board and not some one who needs an injury or drastic change in his currently forecasted role to realize that value. Gainwell, currently being drafted somewhere in the 12-th -15th round, even in a split with Sanders, is likely to return flex option worthy stats, especially once the season gets going.

Biggest Bust at RB- Chase Edmonds- just don't see it. when given the opportunity to be the guy, he simply hasn't been THE guy. granted that's a small sample size, but it's what we've got to work with. Add that to Conners' presence, and it just isn't what you're looking for out of the RB2 spot, which is what he's being drafted as. You'd be better off with Gus or J. Williams or even Sermon, all being drafted after Edmonds (with current ADP data)


Best Value at WR- Marquez Callaway. the WR1 for Sean Peyton's attack for at least 8 weeks, and likely the WR2 from that point on, being drafted in the 10th, or later. Signe me up please

Biggest bust at WR - Terry MCLaurin. Its standard operating procedure for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Set the world on fire for half the season or so, and then have a bad game, and be replaced. In WFT's case, when that happens, and it will, it'll be a death sentence for their WR's. For a guy with that looming on the horizon, the #10 WR is just too danged high fro my blood

Best Value at TE -MIke Gesicki. Currently going somewhere in the 8th to 10th round, and easily the most reliable receiving option on a team that's likely to be playing form behind more often than not, plus a QB who is still a work in progress, seems like an awful lot of opportunity to me.

Biggest bust at TE - Kyle PItts- this one is easy imho. Rookie TE's are historically bad fantasy investments, at least from a redraft perspective. He'd have to set new rookie records at the position to justify being drafted over guys like Hockensen Thomas and Fant, all of which have proven to be at minimum as productive as the best rookie TE seasons of all time. Now if Atlanta chooses to use him as the WR#2 and he just happens to be a TE, than all bets are off. But if he's an actual TE..it's not gonna be as fruitful as many would hope

It’s surreal to me. Having the Bills as preseason contenders. It was weird last year as Allen blew up, and it will keep on being weird. It’s like I’m 12-15 years old again!

 

[TREFF]

I don’t see Fitzpatrick getting replaced like he has in the past. I think Washington is using him as their starter until he gets hurt. Every other team he has been on seems like he’s been backed up by a young and promising prospect at QB. That will not be the case this year.

IF we're only talking about Winston and Tua, yes, that's correct, but, he's also been benched, or passed over for, at some point in the past for such heralded veteran studs as Trent Edwards, Case Keenum, Ryan Mallet, Geno Smith, Bryce Petty, and Josh Rosen--not the 1st round pick Josh Rosen, but the guy who had had his chance and been kicked to the curb- Josh Rosen.
Given the little tease at the end of the year from Heinicke, and the "recency bias" that undeniably exists, not just with fans, but with coaches and front office types..I think its definitely within the realm of possibility they give him a shot at some point, depending on just how significant FitzMagic struggles.

its not a definite by any means, but when you're talking about a guy you have to spend substantial draft capital on, its something that has to be considered in that decision. He's currently in the WR #10 area, and the next 12 dudes behind him all have stable QB situations, until oyu hit DJ Moore at #22, and even his situation is stable, its just not a great QB. There's obvious potential that he doesn't return the investment and the guys being drafted behind him outproduce him

 

[wilwhite]

wonder why they have the Buc's only playing 15 games??

COVID

 

[TREFF]

COVID

What would be more impressive, succesfully predicting a game canceled due to the 'Rona, or successfully predicting a fantasy matchup that ends in a tie like our friend @averagejoe has done?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Treff, I always enjoy your stuff.
Although it hurts a little that you "busted" a couple of my MBBRL player selections.

I have my own bust - Calvin Ridley. I just tend to shy away from guys who get thrusted (maybe it's just thrust) into the WR1 role. Maybe I'm reminded of good ole Peerless Price? For all you youngsters, Price was the WR2 in Buffalo playing in the shadow of WR1 Eric Moulds. PP cashed in on a big payday and went to Atlanta as the WR1. Was a lot tougher playing in double-coverage as the WR1. I just wonder if Ridley can do the same now that he doesn't have Julio Jones opposite him.

Me realizing Joe didn't have any sound statistical evidence to support fading Ridley as I target him with my 2nd rd pick in tonight's draft against my friend's dbag college buddies...

 

[obxyankeefan]

Still going with 10 wins for Baltimore?

 

[TREFF]

Still going with 10 wins for Baltimore?

with Bell in instead of Gus? might have to up it to 12?

 

[obxyankeefan]

with Bell in instead of Gus? might have to up it to 12?

Losing Edwards might be addition by subtraction, but if they lost Peters today that hurts.

 

[TREFF]

Losing Edwards might be addition by subtraction, but if they lost Peters today that hurts.

In my elation over knowing that there will be zero further debates about Gus and whether or not he's a decent RB, this year, I forgot about that, and yes, that is seriously a huge loss..in an already tough divsion.

 

[tlance]

Is ridley really thrusted there? He operated as wr1 last year

And he was an elite prospect expected to be a WR1 when he was drafted.

Juju was not.

 

[SteelersPride]

And he was an elite prospect expected to be a WR1 when he was drafted.

Juju was not.

Agreed. Ridley was a top guy. A luxry pick at the time. He was expected to be a #1.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Dobbins, Gus, Hill, Peters...what are they doing wrong in practice?

 

[tlance]

Add to my predictions that likely won't come close-
By hook or crook,, L. Bell outscores Gus Edwards on the year

Well….

This is prophetic.

Looks like it got there by crook.

 

[averagejoe]

Wanna get this in before the season starts.
I predict the Bears look more disconnected than last season.
In 2020, Nagy lamented how he should have used preseason games to help execute better.
So what did we get in 2021 preseason?
Andy Dalton attempted 21 passes in 3 games.
David Montgomery rushed 1 time.
Robinson and Mooney - zero receptions.

Did I mention that I think Nagy's an idiot?

 

[tlance]

Wanna get this in before the season starts.
I predict the Bears look more disconnected than last season.
In 2020, Nagy lamented how he should have used preseason games to help execute better.
So what did we get in 2021 preseason?
Andy Dalton attempted 21 passes in 3 games.
David Montgomery rushed 1 time.
Robinson and Mooney - zero receptions.

Did I mention that I think Nagy's an idiot?

Wanna get this in before the season starts.
I predict the Bears look more disconnected than last season.
In 2020, Nagy lamented how he should have used preseason games to help execute better.
So what did we get in 2021 preseason?
Andy Dalton attempted 21 passes in 3 games.
David Montgomery rushed 1 time.
Robinson and Mooney - zero receptions.

Did I mention that I think Nagy's an idiot?

Well, they did draft Fields at least.

This year is about getting him ready to excel next year. Then the Bears can actually contend.