Treff's 2021 NFL predictions (which most likely won't be close at all)

[TREFF]

My main point with listing the QBs is just that Lawrence is doing pretty poorly based on expectations. I think thats pretty fair to say.

Well I would say that some had unrealistic expectations I guess. Did I expect a little more? Yeah probably, but not much. But then again..as I mentioned in that original post, rookie QB, rookie QB, on a bad team to begin with, expectations should've been extremely low

 

[Clayton]

Well I would say that some had unrealistic expectations I guess. Did I expect a little more? Yeah probably, but not much. But then again..as I mentioned in that original post, rookie QB, rookie QB, on a bad team to begin with, expectations should've been extremely low

I definitely did have unrealistic expectations. There were a few sources out there saying that Lawrence was just another rookie QB prospect and not the a generational talent or anything and I didnt factor that in enough.

Year 2 bump will be interesting on a franchise that doesn't see a lot of year 2 bumps. Even with an average DVOA bump Lawrence wouldn't be playing as well as Mac Jones is right now. I think without seeing some level of progress with the Jaguars offense you'd have to replace Meyer at the end of the season. In terms of making the playoffs for year 2 or have a quality fantasy starter for year 2 then I would definitely keep an eye out on how they finish the season.

 

[averagejoe]

Re: Trevor Lawrence
There have been some swing and misses when the QB was the first overall pick.

Here are the last few along with their first season stats.
2015 Jameis Winston 4042/22
2016 Jared Goff 1089/5 (7 games; on pace for 2480/11)
2018 Baker Mayfield 3725/27
2019 Kyler Murray 3722/20
2020 Joe Burrow 2688/13 (10 games; on pace for 4300/20)
2021 Trevor Lawrence 2141/8 (10 games; on pace for 3425/12 if we were still measuring a 16-game season)

 

[TREFF]

Re: Trevor Lawrence
There have been some swing and misses when the QB was the first overall pick.

Here are the last few along with their first season stats.
2015 Jameis Winston 4042/22
2016 Jared Goff 1089/5 (7 games; on pace for 2480/11)
2018 Baker Mayfield 3725/27
2019 Kyler Murray 3722/20
2020 Joe Burrow 2688/13 (10 games; on pace for 4300/20)
2021 Trevor Lawrence 2141/8 (10 games; on pace for 3425/12 if we were still measuring a 16-game season)

Right, I like it Joe

even the "hits", weren't all that great year one. Trevor isn't far off from most of those guys in matching a rookie year performance..it's just what you should expect.
Those few who do better kinda ruin it for the 90% who just need some time

 

[Clayton]

I don't know. Lawrence having 12 Tds and 13 Ints or something comparable would be comparable to Goff and well behind the others. Goff has yet to win a single game outside of the Sean McVay scheme. Thats not the road you want to go down.

I personally would like to see Lawrence get to 20Tds pass+rush.

 

[averagejoe]

To be honest i was expecting more from Trevor. Some of the guys taken 1st overall may be the consensus "default" pick for lack of a better term. Seemed like Trevor was touted a little more from what i remember. More along the "cant miss" type as opposed to the "default" pick.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Tre White done for the year.

Bills will be in a dogfight with the Pats even more so now.

 

[TREFF]

I don't know. Lawrence having 12 Tds and 13 Ints or something comparable would be comparable to Goff and well behind the others. Goff has yet to win a single game outside of the Sean McVay scheme. Thats not the road you want to go down.

I personally would like to see Lawrence get to 20Tds pass+rush.

He's got 8+2, in 10 games, and 7 games left..it's not at all impossible to see 10 more combined scores in the final 7 games..his current pace is about 3500 and 17-18 combined, which honestly isn't far off from Kyler Murray (3700, 22+4..and Kyler walked onto a team with Larry Legend and Christian Kirk). I really don't see the problem.

 

[Clayton]

He's got 8+2, in 10 games, and 7 games left..it's not at all impossible to see 10 more combined scores in the final 7 games..his current pace is about 3500 and 17-18 combined, which honestly isn't far off from Kyler Murray (3700, 22+4..and Kyler walked onto a team with Larry Legend and Christian Kirk). I really don't see the problem.

Kyler murray finished the season 15th in QBR and Lawrence is 27th currently. 6.9 YPA vs 6.0 YPA. I dont really see that as comparable.

 

[averagejoe]

Maybe Nagy will be in JAX in 2022 to help Trevor along?

 

[TREFF]

Kyler murray finished the season 15th in QBR and Lawrence is 27th currently. 6.9 YPA vs 6.0 YPA. I dont really see that as comparable.

QBR and ypa aren't scored in fantasy, so who gives a rip? And its completely disregarding the fact the Murray actually had real NFL caliber teammates to throw to, not wannabes and gadget guys.
Dude said he wanted to see X amount of scores, I simply pointed out that he's not that far off that same pace.

For fucks suck people..for a guy who's not high on Trevor Lawrence, discussing him with people who were higher on him coming into the season, why the F am I the one defending him??? He's a rookie, most rookie QB's suck, he's not sucking as utterly badly as he could be, especially given the situation he was drafted into...that's where we're at