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Treff's 2021 NFL predictions (which most likely won't be close at all)

TREFF

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Took me longer than it usually does, sorry. Feel free to tear it up and point out how ridiculous it is. The point is to generate discussion while we wait for this Thursday anyways, so, I encourage it in fact.

NFC west
LAR - 10-7 **
Seattle 9-8*
ARZ 8-9
SF 8-9

NFC South
TB 14-3 **
NO 10-7*
ATL 8-9
Carolina 6-11

NFCEast
Dallas 11-6**
WFT 10-7*
Philly 5-12
NYG 3-14

NFC North
GB 13-4**
Minn 9-8
Chicago 6-11
Detriot 4-13

AFCSouth
INDY 11-6 **
Tenn 10-7 *
Houston 2-15
Jax 2-15

AFC East
Buff 13-4**
NE 10-7
Miami 5-12
NYJ 3-14

AFC North
PItt 12-5**
Clev 11-6*
Balt 10-7
Cincy 5-12

AFC West
KC 15-2**
LAC 11-6*
LVR 8-9
Den 6-11

Super bowl - KC over GB

NFL MVP- Josh Allen
Offensive ROY - Mac Jones (I'm expecting Lawrence to have a rough year one, tough division, rookie HC, his style may lead to lost of missed time..etc)
Defensive ROY- Micah Parsons- no big sack masters in this years draft, and while I love Surtain, I'm not sure a handful of INT's beat out a ton of tackles
Comeback play of the year - Dak Prescott, just by a hair over CMAC in a very tight race.

Passing yardage leader- Herbert
Passing TD leader- Herbert
Rushing yardage leader- Henry
Rushing TD leader - Zeke Elliot (I anticipate a ton of passing from the Dallas O, and a whole bunch of DPI's in the end zone leading to one yard plunges for Zeke..in addition to him just being that good)


Strictly fantasy predicitons-

Best value at QB - Matt Stafford. Overlooked for the flashy Mahommes/Allen/ Jackson types, The McVeigh Offense and the weapons he has, vs where he's being drafted, should be a high "rate of return on investment". A close second to Herbert, but he is being drafted relatively highly.

Biggest bust at QB- Lamar Jackson. The guy still can't pass, still doesn't have decent weapons to use if he could, and now he's down to his back up RB the entirety of the return on investment for Lamar lies in his production with his legs, and its just far to unpredictable that he can keep doing that, at least to the point that makes it sensible to draft him in the3rd round. Honorable mention to Jalen Hurts. But he is being drafted as the QB12, which is the last "assumed" intentional QB1, which tells me he's likely being drafted as most people's QB2 while a few other team owners wait on QB's altogether, and can a guy truly be a bust when the intention was to stash him on the bench to begin with?

Best Value at RB - Kenneth Gainwell. I'm tempted to go with Stevenson here, or maybe one of the Houston backs, but I decided I want to keep it within the realm of what's currently on the board and not some one who needs an injury or drastic change in his currently forecasted role to realize that value. Gainwell, currently being drafted somewhere in the 12-th -15th round, even in a split with Sanders, is likely to return flex option worthy stats, especially once the season gets going.

Biggest Bust at RB- Chase Edmonds- just don't see it. when given the opportunity to be the guy, he simply hasn't been THE guy. granted that's a small sample size, but it's what we've got to work with. Add that to Conners' presence, and it just isn't what you're looking for out of the RB2 spot, which is what he's being drafted as. You'd be better off with Gus or J. Williams or even Sermon, all being drafted after Edmonds (with current ADP data)


Best Value at WR- Marquez Callaway. the WR1 for Sean Peyton's attack for at least 8 weeks, and likely the WR2 from that point on, being drafted in the 10th, or later. Signe me up please

Biggest bust at WR - Terry MCLaurin. Its standard operating procedure for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Set the world on fire for half the season or so, and then have a bad game, and be replaced. In WFT's case, when that happens, and it will, it'll be a death sentence for their WR's. For a guy with that looming on the horizon, the #10 WR is just too danged high fro my blood

Best Value at TE -MIke Gesicki. Currently going somewhere in the 8th to 10th round, and easily the most reliable receiving option on a team that's likely to be playing form behind more often than not, plus a QB who is still a work in progress, seems like an awful lot of opportunity to me.

Biggest bust at TE - Kyle PItts- this one is easy imho. Rookie TE's are historically bad fantasy investments, at least from a redraft perspective. He'd have to set new rookie records at the position to justify being drafted over guys like Hockensen Thomas and Fant, all of which have proven to be at minimum as productive as the best rookie TE seasons of all time. Now if Atlanta chooses to use him as the WR#2 and he just happens to be a TE, than all bets are off. But if he's an actual TE..it's not gonna be as fruitful as many would hope
 

femurov

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Solid effort. I may put one of these together before Thursday.

I slightly disagree with a couple of things, but not enough to make a real argument against it. Basically splitting hairs.
 

obxyankeefan

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Not enough wins

San Francisco just can't see them having the injuries that killed them last year again this year.

Jacksonville just because and I will not allow any back talk on this

Too many wins

Houston QB out, RBs all on the downside, bad defense
Detroit Coach wants to bite people in the kneecaps just not good.
 

Shanemansj13

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Here are mine. I used the NFL Playoff Predictor.

1631047491227.png1631047527681.png

AFC Playoffs
(2) Bills vs (7) Chargers - Bills advance
(3) Browns vs (6) Steelers - Browns advance
(4) Titans vs (5) Dolphins - Titans advance

(1) Chiefs vs (4) Titans - Chiefs advance
(2) Bills vs (3) Browns - Browns advance

(1) Chiefs vs (3) Browns - Browns advance to SB

NFC Playoffs
(2) Rams vs (7) Cardinals - Cardinals advance
(3) Packers vs (6) 49ers - Packers advance
(4) Cowboys vs (5) Seahawks - Seahawks advance

(1) Bucs vs (7) Cardinals - Bucs advance
(3) Packers vs (5) Seahawks - Packers advance

(1) Bucs vs (3) Packers - Packers advance to SB

SUPER BOWL
Packers vs Browns - Packers win
 

SmokingMonkey

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3 NFC West teams will have at least 10 wins this year

great stuff Treff!
 

TREFF

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Here are mine. I used the NFL Playoff Predictor.

View attachment 279456View attachment 279457

AFC Playoffs
(2) Bills vs (7) Chargers - Bills advance
(3) Browns vs (6) Steelers - Browns advance
(4) Titans vs (5) Dolphins - Titans advance

(1) Chiefs vs (4) Titans - Chiefs advance
(2) Bills vs (3) Browns - Browns advance

(1) Chiefs vs (3) Browns - Browns advance to SB

NFC Playoffs
(2) Rams vs (7) Cardinals - Cardinals advance
(3) Packers vs (6) 49ers - Packers advance
(4) Cowboys vs (5) Seahawks - Seahawks advance

(1) Bucs vs (7) Cardinals - Bucs advance
(3) Packers vs (5) Seahawks - Packers advance

(1) Bucs vs (3) Packers - Packers advance to SB

SUPER BOWL
Packers vs Browns - Packers win
wonder why they have the Buc's only playing 15 games??
 

Shanemansj13

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wonder why they have the Buc's only playing 15 games??
Whoops for some reason I forgot to fill out the Bucs vs Panthers 2 games. Even with a split, Bucs get #1
 

Clayton

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My hot take this year is that the Colts aren't as good as people think and the Jaguars are better than people think. Its a QB league.

I dont see 15 wins from the Chiefs. Someone is going to get hurt. Someone always gets hurt. 11-14 wins is their range imo.
 

averagejoe

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Treff, I always enjoy your stuff.
Although it hurts a little that you "busted" a couple of my MBBRL player selections.

I have my own bust - Calvin Ridley. I just tend to shy away from guys who get thrusted (maybe it's just thrust) into the WR1 role. Maybe I'm reminded of good ole Peerless Price? For all you youngsters, Price was the WR2 in Buffalo playing in the shadow of WR1 Eric Moulds. PP cashed in on a big payday and went to Atlanta as the WR1. Was a lot tougher playing in double-coverage as the WR1. I just wonder if Ridley can do the same now that he doesn't have Julio Jones opposite him.
 

Shanemansj13

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Treff, I always enjoy your stuff.
Although it hurts a little that you "busted" a couple of my MBBRL player selections.

I have my own bust - Calvin Ridley. I just tend to shy away from guys who get thrusted (maybe it's just thrust) into the WR1 role. Maybe I'm reminded of good ole Peerless Price? For all you youngsters, Price was the WR2 in Buffalo playing in the shadow of WR1 Eric Moulds. PP cashed in on a big payday and went to Atlanta as the WR1. Was a lot tougher playing in double-coverage as the WR1. I just wonder if Ridley can do the same now that he doesn't have Julio Jones opposite him.
So Ridley = Juju 2019? Maybe not that extreme
 

SteelersPride

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Treff, I always enjoy your stuff.
Although it hurts a little that you "busted" a couple of my MBBRL player selections.

I have my own bust - Calvin Ridley. I just tend to shy away from guys who get thrusted (maybe it's just thrust) into the WR1 role. Maybe I'm reminded of good ole Peerless Price? For all you youngsters, Price was the WR2 in Buffalo playing in the shadow of WR1 Eric Moulds. PP cashed in on a big payday and went to Atlanta as the WR1. Was a lot tougher playing in double-coverage as the WR1. I just wonder if Ridley can do the same now that he doesn't have Julio Jones opposite him.
Is ridley really thrusted there? He operated as wr1 last year
 

averagejoe

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Is ridley really thrusted there? He operated as wr1 last year
It may just be a baseless "gut" feeling.
I did look it up tho.
In the 7 games without Julio, Ridley did post a very respectable average of 109.3 yards per game.
vs CHI, CAR, NO, LAC, TB, KC, & TB
 

TREFF

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Treff, I always enjoy your stuff.
Although it hurts a little that you "busted" a couple of my MBBRL player selections.

I have my own bust - Calvin Ridley. I just tend to shy away from guys who get thrusted (maybe it's just thrust) into the WR1 role. Maybe I'm reminded of good ole Peerless Price? For all you youngsters, Price was the WR2 in Buffalo playing in the shadow of WR1 Eric Moulds. PP cashed in on a big payday and went to Atlanta as the WR1. Was a lot tougher playing in double-coverage as the WR1. I just wonder if Ridley can do the same now that he doesn't have Julio Jones opposite him.
I share the same hesitancy on Ridley.

And as for the busts, I'm not saying the guy will totally suck, I'm more thinking he won't return good value vs the investment you have to make to acquire him.
 

TREFF

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Add to my predictions that likely won't come close-
By hook or crook,, L. Bell outscores Gus Edwards on the year
 

Shanemansj13

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Add to my predictions that likely won't come close-
By hook or crook,, L. Bell outscores Gus Edwards on the year
Gavin Free Wow GIF by Rooster Teeth
 

averagejoe

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Add to my predictions that likely won't come close-
By hook or crook,, L. Bell outscores Gus Edwards on the year
giphy.gif
 

SteelersPride

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It may just be a baseless "gut" feeling.
I did look it up tho.
In the 7 games without Julio, Ridley did post a very respectable average of 109.3 yards per game.
vs CHI, CAR, NO, LAC, TB, KC, & TB
Yeah that was more why i thought he could handle it. Dont fault the call, just that he was kinda pushed in that spot at times last year and heck even the year prior julio has been brittle
 
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