Sparhawk
SportsHoopla Ombudsman
The odds do not guarantee us a pick at #4.As much as I would love to pick 1st or 2nd overall, even if we just lose this game in regulation and end up picking 4th overall, we can take Frondell or Hagens at that spot and then possibly trade up to get someone else we may covet in the top 20. We are guaranteed that a top center is still on the board at 4. Then, we have a lot of other picks to potentially move around and get who we want.
Only a 15.4% chance to pick at #4 if we wind up with the 4th worst record.
Roughly a 1/3 chance of picking 1 (9.5%), 2 (9.5%), or 4.
Which means 2/3 chance of picking 5 (44.6%) or 6 (20.8%).
Still, I would not be opposed to trade all 3 1st round picks to move into the top 3.
Also worth noting that Ivan Ryabkin has fallen down quite a few rankings list and may be available as a late 1st round pick.