That Clever Baalke

[I_am_1z]

If compensation picks work like how I think they do, then 2015 we're in for a huge prize by the come of the draft two years from now.

Colt McCoy
Anquan Boldin

Traded for (assuming they make the team)...

Justin Smith
Kyle Williams (May not count because I think he makes "low minimum salary")
Mario Manningham
Parys Haralson
Tarell Brown
Jonathan Goodwin
Donte Whitner

out of the players that were previously on the roster before the start of FA, these are the players I believe the NFL will dub, "Compensatory Free Agents", meaning we get a pick. This year (2013) we have an extra 4th and two 7ths.

The FA's we sign this year (2013) will cancel out those we lose next year in terms of compensation picks. We've signed Nnamdi and Phil Dawson to one year contracts, so their unique situation of being signed (assuming they make the team) to a one year contract pretty much cancels (because they were acquired and lost) them out of the equation.
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All this adds up to the 49ers having as high as EIGHT OR NINE comp picks if we lost all the players to the market. This gives the 49ers incentive to find Justin Smith and Tarell Brown replacements ASAP, since if we can afford to lose them we'll be given something in the range of a 3rd to 5th rounder (barring injury and given consistent play).



And I just noticed this didn't apply to the 2014 draft...but I could do one if I'm using the compensatory pick formula correctly.

 

[NinerSickness]

IThe FA's we sign this year (2013) will cancel out those we lose next year in terms of compensation picks. We've signed Nnamdi and Phil Dawson to one year contracts, so their unique situation of being signed (assuming they make the team) to a one year contract pretty much cancels (because they were acquired and lost) them out of the equation.

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you're saying here, so forgive me if I'm not following...

Singning Nnamdi doesn't cancel out anything because he was cut. If you sign a FA who was cut, you don't have to factor them into the comp' pick formula.

 

[I_am_1z]

I'm not sure I'm understanding what you're saying here, so forgive me if I'm not following...

Singning Nnamdi doesn't cancel out anything because he was cut. If you sign a FA who was cut, you don't have to factor them into the comp' pick formula.

That smiley face is deceiving. Are you saying that you don't believe Nnamdi will make the team OR since Nnamdi was cut by the Eagles he doesn't count as an acquisition?

 

[Arete Tzu]

That smiley face is deceiving. Are you saying that you don't believe Nnamdi will make the team OR since Nnamdi was cut by the Eagles he doesn't count as an acquisition?

if a player is cut by another team, he doesn't count. It only counts if their contract runs it's course and you signed them away from the original team.

 

[NinerSickness]

That smiley face is deceiving. Are you saying that you don't believe Nnamdi will make the team OR since Nnamdi was cut by the Eagles he doesn't count as an acquisition?

The bold.

 

[I_am_1z]

if a player is cut by another team, he doesn't count. It only counts if their contract runs it's course and you signed them away from the original team.

@Arete and Sickness

Doesn't count as an acquisition?

Or at the end of this year if he's not re-signed, he won't count as a loss?

 

[NinerSickness]

@Arete and Sickness

Doesn't count as an acquisition?

Or at the end of this year if he's not re-signed, he won't count as a loss?

He doesn't count as an acquisition. I think he should still count as a loss if he goes to another team next year (unless he's cut of course).

 

[MHSL82]

He doesn't count as an acquisition. I think he should still count as a loss if he goes to another team next year (unless he's cut of course).

This is what I thought, but didn't say anything because I defer to others on this stuff. I thought compensatory picks are given if a free agent we have, after full contract is over, leaves to another team (then isn't there a performance on the next team factored in). But if the player is cut, there are no picks regardless. So, for example, Philadelphia is not getting any picks because they cut him. (Their compensation, in effect, was him off the books, minus his guaranteed.)

 

[NinerSickness]

This is what I thought, but didn't say anything because I defer to others on this stuff. I thought compensatory picks are given if a free agent we have, after full contract is over, leaves to another team (then isn't there a performance on the next team factored in). But if the player is cut, there are no picks regardless. So, for example, Philadelphia is not getting any picks because they cut him. (Their compensation, in effect, was him off the books, minus his guaranteed.)

I believe this is all correct. Not sure about the performance thing; I thought it was calculated by how big the contract they sign is.

 

[I_am_1z]

He doesn't count as an acquisition. I think he should still count as a loss if he goes to another team next year (unless he's cut of course).

The ladder would be great! Let's play the politic game and start Nnamdi jump and always be sure to have a safety over him to sweeten his stats a bit.

 

[I_am_1z]

This is what I thought, but didn't say anything because I defer to others on this stuff. I thought compensatory picks are given if a free agent we have, after full contract is over, leaves to another team (then isn't there a performance on the next team factored in). But if the player is cut, there are no picks regardless. So, for example, Philadelphia is not getting any picks because they cut him. (Their compensation, in effect, was him off the books, minus his guaranteed.)

Probably what I should have done, but oh well brings a good Q&A.

Colt McCoy and Boldin from the sound of it will not be comp FA's right?

 

[MHSL82]

I believe this is all correct. Not sure about the performance thing; I thought it was calculated by how big the contract they sign is.

Ok, you might be right. When I said performance, I didn't mean yards or production. I meant starts and all that. But your answer sounds more likely. Disregard the performance comment unless someone else can clarify, verify, or correct.

 

[NinerSickness]

Colt McCoy and Boldin from the sound of it will not be comp FA's right?

Right. Trades don't factor in.

 

[NinerSickness]

Here's an article from behindthesteelcurtain:

The formula the NFL uses to determine compensatory picks - draft picks slotted at the end of each round starting from the third and extending to the seventh is both complicated and hidden.

The basic gist of it is teams are rewarded compensatory picks in the draft after the season they lose a player to free agency. The level of that pick depends on several factors, including salary, playing time and postseason honors of the player leaving, and the value of any player the team signs in free agency.

While it's not purely apples-to-apples, if Team A signs one player to a one-year deal for $1 million, and loses a player who signs the same contract elsewhere, they wouldn't likely receive compensation.

The player has to have entered the free agent market due to an expired contract, not a release.

To provide some context, the Steelers were awarded three 7th round picks in 2012 because they lost tight end Matt Spaeth, defensive end Nick Eason and linebacker Keyaron Fox.

That same year, Oakland received the 95th overall pick (end of the third round) because they lost cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha in 2011.

The system is largely based on net losses in free agency, preventing a team from letting one free agent go and getting a pick in return despite having signed another player to a huge deal. But even teams that sign more than they lose can get compensatory picks, depending on the value of those signed and those departing.

Not every departing player merits a compensatory pick, either.

With the cap position the Steelers are in, they can expect to say goodbye to several players, most notably, wide receiver Mike Wallace, nose tackle Casey Hampton and running back Rashard Mendenhall. Odds are outstanding they'll receive among the highest compensatory picks for Wallace, who's expected to sign a big free agent deal this offseason.

Depending on Mendenhall's contract, which is expected to be offered by a team that doesn't reside within the city limits of Pittsburgh, they may get another mid-round pick. Depending on how much Hampton would sign elsewhere for - and 0-technique nose tackles are expensive, regardless of age - the Steelers could net another pick.

They also could lose out on cornerback Keenan Lewis, who enters unrestricted free agency if the Steelers cannot sign him to a deal before March 12.

The Steelers are expected to make a competitive offer for Lewis, a third-round pick in the 2009 draft.

Other notable unrestricted free agents are left tackle Max Starks, linebacker Larry Foote and right guard Ramon Foster. While Starks was the only Steelers offensive lineman to not miss a snap in 2012, given his injury history, his next contract, if there is one, won't be for much. Neither will Foote's. Foster could sign a reasonable contract, and could merit a selection. To frame the general area of pick Foster may return upon his departure (which is expected), former Ravens OG Ben Grubbs signed a five-year, $36 million deal with New Orleans last year, and Baltimore will likely get a fourth-round pick. Foster won't sign for that much, but will still be enough to make it likely he'll return a pick.

The Steelers did not receive any compensatory picks in 2011, and, at best, will receive a seventh round pick in exchange for losing CB William Gay to Arizona last year. The other players they lost (Hines Ward, Aaron Smith, James Farrior, Chris Kemoeatu and Bryant McFadden) did not sign anywhere else.

It's too difficult to determine a guess on which players will leave, let alone what the compensation will be in 2014, but just considering the Minnesota Vikings received the 128th overall pick for losing WR Sidney Rice, who signed a five-year, $41 million deal with Seattle in 2011, they can expect a pick somewhere in the third or fourth round.

Wallace rejected a larger contract offer from the Steelers, suggesting he intends to sign for more than that.

All told, adding possibly as high as an additional third round pick can help a team longer on salary than it is on depth.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Sick's article explains it well. Simply put, it's the UFA losses vs. the UFA additions during the prior offseason. So for the 2014 draft, as of now we're looking at the following.

Losses:
Goldson
Walker
Sopoaga
RJF
Ginn

Additions:
Dorsey
Dahl
Dawson
Skuta

Ginn only signed a one-year deal - I'm not sure for how much - so it's possible he wouldn't count. Generally you don't get picks if you gain as many or more players as you lose, but there may be some exceptions. We can't bring in any more FAs, though, without running the risk of getting no comp picks. Frankly, given that Goldson would probably net a 3rd and Walker might net a 4th, and that we've got tons of draft picks, I'm a little frustrated we brought in Skuta and Dahl. Hopefully Gooden or Grant will sign somewhere.

 

[erckm510]

The thing not listed on here is that there are only 32 compensatory picks given a year. The most any team has ever gotten in one year is 4. So that should temper your expectations on how many the Niners can get.

The quick and dirty like Crimson said is UFA adds over UFA losses but it's no always the case. "Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a team is covered by this formula. This year, two teams (the Colts and the New York Giants) each will receive a compensatory pick even though they did not suffer a net loss of compensatory free agents last year. Under the formula, the compensatory free agents lost by these teams were ranked higher than the ones they signed (by a specified point differential based upon salary and performance)."

So the Niners will be in good shape. I think they get 3 picks next year. A 3rd a 5th and a 7th.

 

[erckm510]

Since salary is the biggest factor in what pick you get the only guy the Niners can expect to get huge money in FA is Brown. Justin will re-up with the Niners probably for a year then retire. Whitner will maybe get 5 mil a year. The rest of the guys would be cancelled out by guys the Niners pick up in FA.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

Since salary is the biggest factor in what pick you get the only guy the Niners can expect to get huge money in FA is Brown. Justin will re-up with the Niners probably for a year then retire. Whitner will maybe get 5 mil a year. The rest of the guys would be cancelled out by guys the Niners pick up in FA.

We'll have to see what happens this season, but I don't see Brown getting huge money. Some very good CBs were getting $5 million/year or less on short contracts this year. Brown is a solid player, but he's not likely to get more money than the cream of this year's crop.

 

[erckm510]

We'll have to see what happens this season, but I don't see Brown getting huge money. Some very good CBs were getting $5 million/year or less on short contracts this year. Brown is a solid player, but he's not likely to get more money than the cream of this year's crop.

I should clarify when I say huge money. I mean a multi-year contract similar to what Walker, RJF and Soap got. Brown to me is the only player that fits that mold. Whitner is the only other guy that could get another multi-year deal for decent money.

 

[MHSL82]

It's stuff like this that makes me appreciate our FO, even more. Current, of course, as in 2007 we were one of the bad ones. Injuries hurt 2007, but we weren't going to necessarily be that improved without them.

NFL mailbag - $100 million is price of failure in free agency

In doing some paperwork to wrap up the bulk of 2013 free agency, I stumbled across a weird trend.

As we all know, teams can't buy championships through free agency. Those that have tried have failed. In fact, recent history has shown the top spenders in unrestricted free agency haven't had winning seasons or significantly improved their record.

In 2012, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($147.38 million), Buffalo Bills ($118.98 million), New Orleans Saints ($114.55 million) and St. Louis Rams ($106.2 million) were the top four spenders in unrestricted free agency yet didn't have winning seasons. The Bucs improved by three games but finished with a 7-9 record. The Bills grabbed the top free agent -- defensive end Mario Williams -- but repeated with a 6-10 record. The Saints filled holes in free agency, but the bounty controversy and suspension of head coach Sean Payton dropped them from 13-3 to 7-9. The Rams improved 5½ games but fell short of a winning record at 7-8-1.

In 2011, the Philadelphia Eagles put together the so-called "Dream Team," signing 12 players for contracts totaling $127.1 million, but the team dropped from 10-6 to 8-8. The Jacksonville Jaguars were second in spending that year with $115.53 million, but slipped three games to 5-11. The Seattle Seahawks kick-started their rebuilding under Pete Carroll with $107.6 million, but their record matched the 7-9 mark from the previous season.

We'll skip the uncapped year in 2010 because only 51 players moved to different teams. There isn't a big enough number to judge. The Chicago Bears grabbed defensive end Julius Peppers as the top free agent and spent $111 million on contracts. They did improve by four games to make the playoffs at 11-5.

In 2009, the Denver Broncos were the only team that spent more than $100 million in contracts ($108.5 million). The Broncos stayed at 8-8.

In 2008, the Jets were the $100 million team with a $109.62 million shopping list. They bucked the trend, improving by five games to go 9-7, but didn't make the playoffs, and a coaching change followed.

In 2007, the San Francisco 49ers were the big spenders at $129.37 million, but they went from 7-9 to 5-11.

You have to think the trend will change this year. The Miami Dolphins were the offseason leaders with a $146.1 million free-agency haul. They have a decent young quarterback in Ryan Tannehill. They've added wide receivers Mike Wallace and Brandon Gibson and tight end Dustin Keller. Coming off a 7-9 season, you figure they will get better by a couple of games with the additions.

If they aren't the team to beat the $100 million free-agent trend, the Indianapolis Colts should be. They went 11-5 with Andrew Luck leading the way as a rookie. They added eight players with contracts totaling $132 million. Their record might not be better, but the additions can't make them worse as a team.

I wouldn't say there is a $100 million jinx on teams spending that much in free agency, but there still needs to be caution about what happens to the big spenders. Recent history proves a big checkbook doesn't guarantee great success.