Playoff Hunt - 2021

[deep9er]

Let's go to the tape! And the tape says the Niner secondary got its butt kicked all day even you leave out the last drive.

Lazard, 1 catch, 42yds
--1st 3 Quarters—1 catch, 42yds
Penalties—DPI Lenoir (25yds) on 3rd and 4
--4th Quarter—0 catches

D.Adams 12 catches, 132yds, 1 TD
--1st 3 Quarters--2yds, 12yds, 14yds, 1yd (TD), 10yds, 15yds, 19yds, 1yd, 9yds, 7yds
Penalties—DPI Moseley (32yds) on 3rd and 6, drive ended in TD.
--4th Quarter—25yds, 17yds—all on the Last Drive

Vades-Scantling, 3 catches, 49yds and a TD
--1st 3 Quarters--47yds, 0yds
--4th Quarter--12yds (TD)

Through 3 quarters, the Packers top 3 WRs had gotten a total of 13 catches for 180yds, 1 TDs, 2 DPIs. Warner extended another Packers drive by committing DPI on Tonyan on a 3rd down. That says our pass defense was getting killed out there. Yet, all anyone remembers is the Last Drive, so let's look:

Last Drive - it was really only 2 plays
-started at GB 25
-25yds pass to Adams, ball at the 50
-spike
-inc. pass to Adams
-3rd and 10, 17yd pass to Adams, ball at the SF 33
-spike
-FG, Niners Lose.

The Unremembered Key Play
It was a killer 4th quarter fumble at our own 38 when we already trailed 24-21. The Packers turned that TO into a quick FG, giving them a 6 point lead. Yes, our next drive was the go-ahead TD, giving us a 1 point lead with just 37 seconds left, but all the Packers needed was a FG to beat us b/c of the fumble-turned-TD.

Yep, Green Bay has the best chance to shread our secondary.

For the Unremembered key play..........yep, mistakes kill you and the worse mistake is a turnover. Along this line, our D was good in forcing a field goal.

 

[deep9er]

Niners gave up 3 firsts and a 3rd to get Trey Lance.
--B/c we were supposed to be in the playoffs this year and likely next (so much for that), and our pick be in the early 20's or so, it made good sense to trade up for a QB if the team was ever going to do it under Shanny. It was a smart gamble if the FO picked the right QB (...pleeeaze let them have picked the right QB!).

Seattle gave up 2 firsts, a 3rd, and DB B.McDougal to get Jamal Adams and a 4th.
--Though Adams did make the PB in 2020 (9.5 sacks), injuries limited him to 12 games and his coverage grades went down from previous years. He forced hte team to sign him to the 4yr, 72M, 38M guaranteed, contract that the Jets wouldn't give him. And then he produced a 2021 season that was his worst season in 3 years, again playing in just 12 games and seeing his coverage grades continue to drop. And now after a crappy year for the Seahawks, rather than that 2nd first rounder being in the playoff-level 20's as they expected, it's going to be a top 10 and perhaps a top 5 pick! Damn, that has to burn.

No doubt this burns! Sometimes NFL teams have to make bold moves for a QB, but in this case it was for a Safety? As we can learn from their mistake, no matter how good the Safety is at that time, this kind of mega-deal is stoopid.

 

[deep9er]

I watched an analysis of Trey Lance's performance on Sunday from Dan Orlovsky and he showed how unprepared he was in the first half and unable to read or understand coverages. He said it took 28 snaps for him to figure it out but he then said he was very impressed with what lance picked up in the second half. He really liked several throws that he made. So perhaps its not all bad with lance

Considering his playing time in college plus the NFL, he did well. His 1st half performance shouldn't be surprising, even the INT. How many INTs have Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields threw?

 

[deep9er]

They played the Eagles and lost. The 49ers played the Eagles and won. There is a common denominator there to compare the 3 teams. Also, if the 49ers and Saints did play each other right now who thinks the game would even be close? The Vegas books would likely have us up at least 7.5 to open betting.

How is Conference record even a fair judgement when the 49ers are in a division with a shot at putting 3 teams into the Playoffs and the Saints are in one that might feature 3 lossing records. The Eagles are in one with 2 losing records one of which among the worst in the NFL. Conference record has to many variables that favor teams playing in easier divisions.

The common opponent thing makes a bit more since, but even that has problems. The Saints did beat the Seahawks, but they also beat the Geno Smith Seahawks and not the Russel Wilson Seahawks that the 49ers played twice. You're also adding in a record where we played Seattle twice, and they played Carolina twice. Could they beat Seattle again? Could we beat Carolina again?

The 'common denominator' still isn't "head to head".

I get the gripe trust me, but rules say head to head, not common denominator. The play-off rules have been in place for some time and you can't make it so it accounts for all these details. Details about specific games, when it was played, injured players, etc.., changes season to season and over the season.

I certainly think we can beat New Orleans, but we placed ourselves in this situation by not winning ONE more game earlier.

 

[Montalban]

Considering his playing time in college plus the NFL, he did well. His 1st half performance shouldn't be surprising, even the INT. How many INTs have Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields threw?

Yeah. The problem is he’s not a guy you can win with against a team like the Rams; at least not at this point
I think the problem with comparing him to the other three is the lack of talent those guys have to play with. I don’t think any normal fan could name a single wide receiver, running back or tight end on those teams.
Lance is different; he has superior talent on his team in all those areas

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I gotta tell you folks... I'm not sure whether to care much if we make it to the dance this year or not. While pundits seem to think if we get in, we could make some noise, I think this team has some pretty glaring flaws that will make it hard to deliver, "puncher's chance" or not. I'm more thinking about the long-term and life post-Jimmy.

I totally friggin hope we get in, and I feel that the deck is stacked in our favor relative to NOLA, but whether JG or Lance is the starter next week doesn't really matter to me. JG is gone after this year, barring a major injury to Lance or a major reduction in JG's 2022 projected salary. While JG gives a better chance to win versus the Rams on paper, he clearly won't be 100% healthy. I'm leaning towards riding with the kid this year, live or die... getting him prepped as much as possible for 2022.

After the first half of the Texans game, I was thinking "what TF have we done??? our entire future, mortgaged for a kid who can't throw with accuracy and doesn't know how to run effectively." I was calling for Lynch/Shanny's head, lol - my wife got tired of hearing about it. After the second half, I started to feel a bit better. Last night I went back and watched the second half ONLY. If 2nd-half Trey shows up from here on out, we're no worse off than with JG as our starter - shit, we're better. The kid looked solid... like he belonged. He looked as good as JG has looked all year (in his best moments). Whether we like it or not, he is the future.

I felt a lot better about that after watching JT O'Sullivan and KP's breakdowns as well.

Here's JT's breakdown if you haven't seen it:




Here's KP's breakdown:



Our secondary is gonna be smoke and mirrors for the Rams game. If Bosa and company don't get a pass rush, we will probably get shredded. I already anticipate ~80 yds and 3 first downs via PI penalties. This one is gonna be hard, no matter who the QB is. Any given Sunday, for sure. If we show up hungry and focused, we can definitely win this. While the Rams have something to play for, it isn't live-or-die, and if we punch them in the mouth quickly and find a way to run the ball 30 times for >150 yds, I like our chances.

 

[deep9er]

Yeah. The problem is he’s not a guy you can win with against a team like the Rams; at least not at this point
I think the problem with comparing him to the other three is the lack of talent those guys have to play with. I don’t think any normal fan could name a single wide receiver, running back or tight end on those teams.
Lance is different; he has superior talent on his team in all those areas

Nobody said we will win with Lance against the Rams. The Rams are favored for a reason.

The comparison is about how rookie QB's play during their rookie season. While the other 3 have been playing a lot, this was only the 2nd start for Lance. Apparently, you were expecting a Pro-Bowl performance?

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

@Niner Outlaw ... I don't think there's any way that Ryans gets canned as DC. Outside of a couple of last-drive collapses (agaisnt Aaron Friggin Rodgers and the #1 seed in the AFC) his defense is basically top-5. For a rookie DC, that type of resume isn't gonna get you canned. Saleh had a similar track record and they stuck with him after one year, I doubt they'll do different with Ryans.

And I don't see Lynch getting canned either. Although, they may make some changes in the "personnel department" - but I'm not predicting it. I think the Yorks ride with Lynch/Shanny one more year no matter what. If we had gone 4-13, that would be another story. But we're fighting for a playoff spot in the last game of the year and are guaranteed a wining record. That's enough for ownership, imo.

 

[deep9er]

I gotta tell you folks... I'm not sure whether to care much if we make it to the dance this year or not. While pundits seem to think if we get in, we could make some noise, I think this team has some pretty glaring flaws that will make it hard to deliver, "puncher's chance" or not. I'm more thinking about the long-term and life post-Jimmy.

I totally friggin hope we get in, and I feel that the deck is stacked in our favor relative to NOLA, but whether JG or Lance is the starter next week doesn't really matter to me. JG is gone after this year, barring a major injury to Lance or a major reduction in JG's 2022 projected salary. While JG gives a better chance to win versus the Rams on paper, he clearly won't be 100% healthy. I'm leaning towards riding with the kid this year, live or die... getting him prepped as much as possible for 2022.

After the first half of the Texans game, I was thinking "what TF have we done??? our entire future, mortgaged for a kid who can't throw with accuracy and doesn't know how to run effectively." I was calling for Lynch/Shanny's head, lol - my wife got tired of hearing about it. After the second half, I started to feel a bit better. Last night I went back and watched the second half ONLY. If 2nd-half Trey shows up from here on out, we're no worse off than with JG as our starter - shit, we're better. The kid looked solid... like he belonged. He looked as good as JG has looked all year (in his best moments). Whether we like it or not, he is the future.

I felt a lot better about that after watching JT O'Sullivan and KP's breakdowns as well.

Here's JT's breakdown if you haven't seen it:




Here's KP's breakdown:



Our secondary is gonna be smoke and mirrors for the Rams game. If Bosa and company don't get a pass rush, we will probably get shredded. I already anticipate ~80 yds and 3 first downs via PI penalties. This one is gonna be hard, no matter who the QB is. Any given Sunday, for sure. If we show up hungry and focused, we can definitely win this. While the Rams have something to play for, it isn't live-or-die, and if we punch them in the mouth quickly and find a way to run the ball 30 times for >150 yds, I like our chances.

I'd rather go with Lance because he opens up the passing game. I'm not expecting him to pass us to victory but the threat of throwing deep and to the sidelines, stretches the Rams D. Without this threat, the Rams are more able to stop our running game, AND protect the middle where JG throws.

Yes, i watched those Youtube videos and it was encouraging for next year and beyond. Lance can't play like a Pro-Bowler just yet, but he's flashing his potential.

I would like to get in even though we aren't a legit SB contender. We'll be underdogs but i'd rather take a chance than not have a chance. IF we don't get in i won't go ballistic, we lost too many win opportunities earlier in the season. For example, we shouldn't have lost both games to Seattle, we had Green Bay and Tennessee on the ropes. Off-hand, the only team that really beat us was Indy.

 

[deep9er]

@Niner Outlaw ... I don't think there's any way that Ryans gets canned as DC. Outside of a couple of last-drive collapses (agaisnt Aaron Friggin Rodgers and the #1 seed in the AFC) his defense is basically top-5. For a rookie DC, that type of resume isn't gonna get you canned. Saleh had a similar track record and they stuck with him after one year, I doubt they'll do different with Ryans.

And I don't see Lynch getting canned either. Although, they may make some changes in the "personnel department" - but I'm not predicting it. I think the Yorks ride with Lynch/Shanny one more year no matter what. If we had gone 4-13, that would be another story. But we're fighting for a playoff spot in the last game of the year and are guaranteed a wining record. That's enough for ownership, imo.

The major indication is from the players, and we haven't read anything indicating Ryans is over his head? We have read (or seen on Youtube) players commending Ryans, so don't see why we'd fire him now.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I'd rather go with Lance because he opens up the passing game. I'm not expecting him to pass us to victory but the threat of throwing deep and to the sidelines, stretches the Rams D. Without this threat, the Rams are more able to stop our running game, AND protect the middle where JG throws.

Yes, i watched those Youtube videos and it was encouraging for next year and beyond. Lance can't play like a Pro-Bowler just yet, but he's flashing his potential.

I would like to get in even though we aren't a legit SB contender. We'll be underdogs but i'd rather take a chance than not have a chance. IF we don't get in i won't go ballistic, we lost too many win opportunities earlier in the season. For example, we shouldn't have lost both games to Seattle, we had Green Bay and Tennessee on the ropes. Off-hand, the only team that really beat us was Indy.

those 4 games will haunt this team for ever!!!!

 

[deep9er]

those 4 games will haunt this team for ever!!!!

haaaa, frustrating for sure.

Also feel we should've won one of the Arizona games, the lower scoring one.

 

[deep9er]

Plays like that are what you get from playing Lance. Shots taken downfield, elusiveness in the pocket, throws outside the numbers. These are the things that Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't bring to the table. That's not a knock on Garoppolo. It's just simply who he is. Garoppolo lives in the middle of the field, targeting between the hashes, relying on a quick release and playmakers doing something after the catch. That is fine, and it has won a lot of games. But it's riskier.


Somebody agrees with me.

Yes, JG has done mostly good to now despite living in the middle, but our scheme has hit its limit. Shanahan is too restricted on what passes he can call.

 

[deep9er]

As Chris Simms explains, Garoppolo tends to throw into the heavily crowded areas, leading to interceptions, tipped passes, or big hits on wide receivers.

 

[Montalban]

Nobody said we will win with Lance against the Rams. The Rams are favored for a reason.

The comparison is about how rookie QB's play during their rookie season. While the other 3 have been playing a lot, this was only the 2nd start for Lance. Apparently, you were expecting a Pro-Bowl performance?

They definitely won't say that; I'm sure. They are huge underdogs in that scenario. But as for what I was expecting, based on where he was selected and what we gave up to get that pick, I was expecting someone who would be a difference maker in a game, not someone who's play they have to overcome in order to win. I don't think that is expecting too much.

 

[deep9er]

They definitely won't say that; I'm sure. They are huge underdogs in that scenario. But as for what I was expecting, based on where he was selected and what we gave up to get that pick, I was expecting someone who would be a difference maker in a game, not someone who's play they have to overcome in order to win. I don't think that is expecting too much.

The 'issue' is your time frame.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Mosely comes back and Amory heads to the covid list! Sounds like he can still get cleared for Sunday, but practice this week must be weird. All of the starers (plus K'uan) are out, but can potentially (hopefully) play the Rams. Fingers crossed.

 

[deep9er]

4. It's unfair to ask Lance to save the 49ers season after sitting him most of the year. They essentially told us he wasn't ready even for mop-up duty in the fourth quarters of blowouts. They didn't prepare him for this moment.

5. Garoppolo is prepared for this moment. He has been in Kyle Shanahan's offensive system for five season. The 49ers have paid him nearly $100 million to perfect his craft. They also gave him almost all the first-team reps in training camp and throughout the season. He didn't have to split time with Lance even though the 49ers spent three first round picks plus on third on Lance so he can replace Garoppolo one day.

This is why we EXPECT JG to play well, more consistent than he played this season.

Yes, it is unfair to expect much from Trey Lance right now. But he played a good 2nd half anyway.

 

[deep9er]

Mosely comes back and Amory heads to the covid list! Sounds like he can still get cleared for Sunday, but practice this week must be weird. All of the starers (plus K'uan) are out, but can potentially (hopefully) play the Rams. Fingers crossed.

The K'wan situation is the worse one, Kupp is having an All-Pro season from the slot.

We need help from Stafford.

 

[Montalban]

For me, don't see a change at DC nor GM, next season. No doubt this was a disappointing season but not so much that we make major changes like this. I don't feel DeMeco did a bad job this season, so bad that it justifies his firing. Yes, we lost some leads but then again, the offense should've scored earlier or not turn it over so much. Special Teams didn't help in certain games.

The recent drafts have been poor as we all know, and that goes back to Lynch. Granted Shannahan has a lot of input on draft picks. But don't see York wanting to separate Lynch from Shannahan just yet. Hopefully, Shannahan inputs but places less weight on who we actually draft.

The nature of Free Agency is that you overpay, odds are high we don't get the value in higher end FA's. You overpay during their tenure and even afterward, via dead money. BUT that's the nature of fans EVERY off-season, clamoring to sign every FA that's available. This coming off season won't be any different, fans will say sign so and so because they're still good players. But its 3-4 years later that we turn around and criticize the signings as poor, when they're no longer good players.

Agreed. Shanahan's propensity for going into a shell on offense once they have the lead put too much pressure on a mediocre defense. You'd think he'd have learned in Atlanta but he didn't. Hè's the one that probably should be fired,