Playoff Hunt - 2021

[Jordan23]

Falcons playing spoiler at home and beat the saints. Book it

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I think I'm dragging the discussion off the Playoff subject. I'll post some responses to deep and montalbon in another thread(s).

I'll just be happy to get in the play-offs and should we make it, the team I'd rather not play first is the Rams. Why? because it is hard to beat a team 3 times in the same season, two in a row at So-FI.

I agree, I'd rather not play the Rams. Strangely, I think we'd match up better with Dallas.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I'm not quite ready to get rid of Lynch nor DeMeco, but to me, if the argument is one play-off season in 6 is unacceptable, you might as well get rid of Shannahan too.

Didn't York extend both of them after 2019?

IIRC, both Shanny and Lynch were given new contracts in 2020 that extended them through 2025.

Shanny has the real authority, not Lynch--that's been clear since day 1. It's also VERY hard to find a good HC and Shanny is one of only 2 good HCs we've managed to find in the last 20 years. And the ONLY HC to get an contract extension.

I'm not saying I'm ready to boot Lynch now. I'm saying if he were fired after this season, it wouldn't surprise me b/c someone has to be held responsible for that level of underachievement (why I think a nonplayoff 2021 and 2022 means Lynch is definitely fired after next season). And we're not gonna get rid of Shanny after bringing his chosen young QB. That's why Shanny would get more time than Lynch imo.

 

[Montalban]

I'll just be happy to get in the play-offs and should we make it, the team I'd rather not play first is the Rams. Why?

because it is hard to beat a team 3 times in the same season, two in a row at So-FI.

And I don't think any team in our division has a first round pick next year

 

[Montalban]

I think I'm dragging the discussion off the Playoff subject. I'll post some responses to deep and montalbon in another thread(s).


I agree, I'd rather not play the Rams. Strangely, I think we'd match up better with Dallas.

I'd love another shot at Green Bay

 

[deep9er]

I'd love another shot at Green Bay

If there is one team that can really abuse our CB's, its Green Bay.

That said, rather play GB than the Rams first, should we get in.

 

[Montalban]

If there is one team that can really abuse our CB's, its Green Bay.

That said, rather play GB than the Rams first, should we get in.

They didn't do it until the last 37 seconds when they played early this year. And that wasn't so much the failure of the Corners as it was Fred Warner failing to cover his area.

 

[deep9er]

They didn't do it until the last 37 seconds when they played early this year. And that wasn't so much the failure of the Corners as it was Fred Warner failing to cover his area.

Not really true. Adams averaged 11 yards/catch, Valdez-Scantling averaged 19.7/catch; Lazard had one catch but for 42 yards. Don't know how many PI's were called?

If we play them again, our CB's will be abused no what happened in game 3. Whether they catch the ball or get PI's, either way.

They only way we'd beat Green Bay is if our offense outscores them, like 35 points minimum.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Falcons playing spoiler at home and beat the saints. Book it

Well, Atlanta DID beat NO early this year, but that was when Siemian was teh Saint QB. And now Hill is back under center and their defense has been playing great. Still...it would be nice to see Atlanta win.

Aaaaand, if we lose to LAR and still get in b/c Atlanta beats NO, then we could end up playing the #2 Rams in the first rd. Crap, but better than not getting in.

And I don't think any team in our division has a first round pick next year

The Cardinals still have their #1 pick.

Niners traded our #1 to Miami for Trey Lance.
Rams traded their #1 to Detroit for Matt Stafford.
Seattle traded its #1 to NYJ for Jamal Adams.

 

[deep9er]

Well, Atlanta DID beat NO early this year, but that was when Siemian was teh Saint QB. And now Hill is back under center and their defense has been playing great. Still...it would be nice to see Atlanta win.

Aaaaand, if we lose to LAR and still get in b/c Atlanta beats NO, then we could end up playing the #2 Rams in the first rd. Crap, but better than not getting in.


The Cardinals still have their #1 pick.

Niners traded our #1 to Miami for Trey Lance.
Rams traded their #1 to Detroit for Matt Stafford.
Seattle traded its #1 to NYJ for Jamal Adams.

Currently, Seattle's pick was #7 overall......ouch!

The highest pick we would've had is 19th.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I'd love another shot at Green Bay

Not really true. Adams averaged 11 yards/catch, Valdez-Scantling averaged 19.7/catch; Lazard had one catch but for 42 yards. Don't know how many PI's were called?

If we play them again, our CB's will be abused no what happened in game 3. Whether they catch the ball or get PI's, either way.

They only way we'd beat Green Bay is if our offense outscores them, like 35 points minimum.

Let's go to the tape! And the tape says the Niner secondary got its butt kicked all day even you leave out the last drive.

Lazard, 1 catch, 42yds
--1st 3 Quarters—1 catch, 42yds
Penalties—DPI Lenoir (25yds) on 3rd and 4
--4th Quarter—0 catches

D.Adams 12 catches, 132yds, 1 TD
--1st 3 Quarters--2yds, 12yds, 14yds, 1yd (TD), 10yds, 15yds, 19yds, 1yd, 9yds, 7yds
Penalties—DPI Moseley (32yds) on 3rd and 6, drive ended in TD.
--4th Quarter—25yds, 17yds—all on the Last Drive

Vades-Scantling, 3 catches, 49yds and a TD
--1st 3 Quarters--47yds, 0yds
--4th Quarter--12yds (TD)

Through 3 quarters, the Packers top 3 WRs had gotten a total of 13 catches for 180yds, 1 TDs, 2 DPIs. Warner extended another Packers drive by committing DPI on Tonyan on a 3rd down. That says our pass defense was getting killed out there. Yet, all anyone remembers is the Last Drive, so let's look:

Last Drive - it was really only 2 plays
-started at GB 25
-25yds pass to Adams, ball at the 50
-spike
-inc. pass to Adams
-3rd and 10, 17yd pass to Adams, ball at the SF 33
-spike
-FG, Niners Lose.

The Unremembered Key Play
It was a killer 4th quarter fumble at our own 38 when we already trailed 24-21. The Packers turned that TO into a quick FG, giving them a 6 point lead. Yes, our next drive was the go-ahead TD, giving us a 1 point lead with just 37 seconds left, but all the Packers needed was a FG to beat us b/c of the fumble-turned-TD.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Currently, Seattle's pick was #7 overall......ouch!

The highest pick we would've had is 19th.

Niners gave up 3 firsts and a 3rd to get Trey Lance.
--B/c we were supposed to be in the playoffs this year and likely next (so much for that), and our pick be in the early 20's or so, it made good sense to trade up for a QB if the team was ever going to do it under Shanny. It was a smart gamble if the FO picked the right QB (...pleeeaze let them have picked the right QB!).

Seattle gave up 2 firsts, a 3rd, and DB B.McDougal to get Jamal Adams and a 4th.
--Though Adams did make the PB in 2020 (9.5 sacks), injuries limited him to 12 games and his coverage grades went down from previous years. He forced hte team to sign him to the 4yr, 72M, 38M guaranteed, contract that the Jets wouldn't give him. And then he produced a 2021 season that was his worst season in 3 years, again playing in just 12 games and seeing his coverage grades continue to drop. And now after a crappy year for the Seahawks, rather than that 2nd first rounder being in the playoff-level 20's as they expected, it's going to be a top 10 and perhaps a top 5 pick! Damn, that has to burn.

 

[Montalban]

Well, Atlanta DID beat NO early this year, but that was when Siemian was teh Saint QB. And now Hill is back under center and their defense has been playing great. Still...it would be nice to see Atlanta win.

Aaaaand, if we lose to LAR and still get in b/c Atlanta beats NO, then we could end up playing the #2 Rams in the first rd. Crap, but better than not getting in.


The Cardinals still have their #1 pick.

Niners traded our #1 to Miami for Trey Lance.
Rams traded their #1 to Detroit for Matt Stafford.
Seattle traded its #1 to NYJ for Jamal Adams.

Oh, I thought they gave it up for Hopkins

 

[Montalban]

Let's go to the tape! And the tape says the Niner secondary got its butt kicked all day even you leave out the last drive.

Lazard, 1 catch, 42yds
--1st 3 Quarters—1 catch, 42yds
Penalties—DPI Lenoir (25yds) on 3rd and 4
--4th Quarter—0 catches

D.Adams 12 catches, 132yds, 1 TD
--1st 3 Quarters--2yds, 12yds, 14yds, 1yd (TD), 10yds, 15yds, 19yds, 1yd, 9yds, 7yds
Penalties—DPI Moseley (32yds) on 3rd and 6, drive ended in TD.
--4th Quarter—25yds, 17yds—all on the Last Drive

Vades-Scantling, 3 catches, 49yds and a TD
--1st 3 Quarters--47yds, 0yds
--4th Quarter--12yds (TD)

Through 3 quarters, the Packers top 3 WRs had gotten a total of 13 catches for 180yds, 1 TDs, 2 DPIs. Warner extended another Packers drive by committing DPI on Tonyan on a 3rd down. That says our pass defense was getting killed out there. Yet, all anyone remembers is the Last Drive, so let's look:

Last Drive - it was really only 2 plays
-started at GB 25
-25yds pass to Adams, ball at the 50
-spike
-inc. pass to Adams
-3rd and 10, 17yd pass to Adams, ball at the SF 33
-spike
-FG, Niners Lose.

The Unremembered Key Play
It was a killer 4th quarter fumble at our own 38 when we already trailed 24-21. The Packers turned that TO into a quick FG, giving them a 6 point lead. Yes, our next drive was the go-ahead TD, giving us a 1 point lead with just 37 seconds left, but all the Packers needed was a FG to beat us b/c of the fumble-turned-TD.

Garoppolo and the boys engineered a stunning comeback thoiugh. Only to have the D choke again at the end

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Oh, I thought they gave it up for Hopkins

Nope, it was ridiculously cheap.

Houston traded Hopkins and a 2020 4th rounder
Cardinals traded a 2020 2nd rounder, a 2021 4th, and RB David Johnson

To this day, I don't know how or why the Niners didn't try and beat that shitty offer.

 

[Montalban]

Nope, it was ridiculously cheap.

Houston traded Hopkins and a 2020 4th rounder
Cardinals traded a 2020 2nd rounder, a 2021 4th, and RB David Johnson

To this day, I don't know how or why the Niners didn't try and beat that shitty offer.

Hopkins would have been perfect

 

[Montalban]

I watched an analysis of Trey Lance's performance on Sunday from Dan Orlovsky and he showed how unprepared he was in the first half and unable to read or understand coverages. He said it took 28 snaps for him to figure it out but he then said he was very impressed with what lance picked up in the second half. He really liked several throws that he made. So perhaps its not all bad with lance

 

[Montalban]

Jimme Ward. K Juan Williams and Daunte Johnson all have COVID. This is piling on. K Juan Williams is huge since he covers the slot guy, Cooper Kupp. No one else on the squad will have a chance against that guy

 

[Kinzu]

Head-to-Head would mean something if the 49ers had played the Saints. The 49ers didn't play the Saints so you're not even able to apply head-to-head. Under this scenario you can only toss out head-to-head and apply the next criteria.

They played the Eagles and lost. The 49ers played the Eagles and won. There is a common denominator there to compare the 3 teams. Also, if the 49ers and Saints did play each other right now who thinks the game would even be close? The Vegas books would likely have us up at least 7.5 to open betting.

How is Conference record even a fair judgement when the 49ers are in a division with a shot at putting 3 teams into the Playoffs and the Saints are in one that might feature 3 lossing records. The Eagles are in one with 2 losing records one of which among the worst in the NFL. Conference record has to many variables that favor teams playing in easier divisions.

The common opponent thing makes a bit more since, but even that has problems. The Saints did beat the Seahawks, but they also beat the Geno Smith Seahawks and not the Russel Wilson Seahawks that the 49ers played twice. You're also adding in a record where we played Seattle twice, and they played Carolina twice. Could they beat Seattle again? Could we beat Carolina again?

 

[Kinzu]

Falcons playing spoiler at home and beat the saints. Book it

If Atlanta shows up and has not already packed it in for the offseason the Saints should have not shot at beating them, but they should have had zero chance to beat the Bucs a few weeks ago.