Teams needing a RB - 2022 edition

[TREFF]

back again by unpopular demand, my yearly take on which teams need a RB, ensuing arguments on which mediocre talent currently on the roster is or isn't good enough to justify their team being on the list..and then to watch the NFL teams continue to push the narrative that RB's are a dime a dozen, not select one, not sign one..and then wonder why their offense sucks.

Firstly, what's gonna be available-
Since the first round of free agency is before the draft, we'll start there

UFA's 2022-
Melvin Gordon
Leonard Fournette
R. Penny
P Lindsay
James Conner
David Johnson
Ronnie Jones
and a virtual cornucopia of wannabe's and usedtabe's (C. Edmonds, J. White, Coleman, L. Murray, D. Freeman, L. Bell etc..)
No names really worthy of mention on the possible RFA's..not that anyone would offer a contract for one anyways

So the potential list of available free agents has some real talent, however, teams can always get these guys re-signed before free agency opens so the list is 'fluid'. I highly doubt BOTH TB RB's are UFA's, I highly doubt BOTH Cardinals RB's will be UFA's..right? But it's likely that there are at minimum 3 dudes who could easily be "THE guy" with virtually any team they sign with.


And then we've got the draft..what NCAA STUD is gonna be your new dynasty lynchpin?? Most likely none of them. The consensus among most scouts and draft analyst types is that there are ZERO feature backs in this year draft. There's a couple maybe, and plenty of guys who could fill a role, be a rotational type guy..but zero N Harris's, nada on the J. Taylor/Swift/Dobbins/Akers/CEH's, not even a Josh Jacobs in site. that said..I think there are 2-3 who COULD be a viable fantasy asset, if landing in the spot where they'll be used heavily or at least consistently. And another 2-3 where, IF the stars align just right..could develop into something special

So now, the big question..who actually needs a RB? what teams have a true hole to fill?

Definite need-
Arizona- both RB's from 2021 are UFA's. re-signing Conner means the only need decent depth, re-signing Edmonds means they still have a hole to fill.

Atlanta (yep agian)- one of the spots that was debated about at length last year was Mike Davis and him being able to get the job done. Well he proved that he couldn't, especially when a converted WR/punt returner put him to shame at RB. That dude is also a UFA, and chances ae someone else is going to make the mistake of overpaying him. Leaving ATL with nothing but Mike Davis again, only this time, there's no question to debate..he can't cut it.

TB- like ARZ, both RB's from 2021 are UFA's. signing FOurnette means they're likely set at RB. signing Jones means they still have a hole to fill, its just not quite as deep of a hole.

Miami (yep agian)- yet another year, yet another dismal rushing attack put forth by the Dolphins. How? by assuming a collection of ' never will be's" like Gaskins and Ahmed could handle the job. then they made it even worse by signing Lindsay and Duke Johnson..who, performed as good or better than Gaskins and Co., but still couldn't do that job. Why? because contrary to popular belief, RB' aren't a dime a dozen. Perhaps the new staff recognizes this very simple path to improving the offense and finally fills the hole at RB which has existed since 2015 and Lamar Miller (if you want that half season of Ajayi spanning the end of 2016-17 seasons fine..take it).

KC - probably not going to be a popular viewpoint, but, Mahommes needs a rushing attack to relieve pressure on him and the O-line, not to mention soften up some coverages from the defense..and after 2 years of CEH, he's definitely not that guy. We saw last season that D's simply will not allow the Chiefs to do what they do best, and thus far, they haven't come up with a lethal plan B, a rushing attack could easily be that. KC is a win now team, and they're wins are %100 through the offense. Can't afford to keep screwing around with this spot much longer.

Houston - will..duh. they need damned near everything. And while their RB depth chart is a disaster area, they likely won't address it as a priority this offseason, given all the other grand canyons they have..but maybe they should, as a strong rushing attack controlling the clock, could help mitigate the trash they'll have at QB and elsewhere.



That's about it..all around. I don't even see many teams that need a second guy..most of those have been filled lately. I think LAC need a second guy that's better than what they've had lately. Buffalo, maybe? Moss hasn't taken a step forward, although Singletary has.
Then there's the teams like LAR- I was very unimpressed with Aker's return..but Henderson did decent filling in. Michel is a UFA. I wouldn't be shocked if the Rams found a new RB, but I certainly wouldn't say they NEED to.
Seattle still has Carson, for whatever that's worth, and I would imagine they likely re-sign Penny..but if they don't, they'd better get someone decent, cuz Carson is falling apart.
Chicago and Montgomery? mehh..sure ok, maybe..but Monty has been decent enough. maybe a little better quality in the depth behind him?

So there it is, 5 maybe 6 primo landing spots to be filled by a handful of UFA's and hopefully those 1-3 rookie RB's that need some quantity to be decent contributors. NAd likely two or more of which who will pass on the position..and most likely suck offensively, again.

The only system where RB's were TRULY a dime a dozen was the old Alex Gibbs/Shannahan/Kubiak rushing system, and even there, the good ones vastly outshined those who were more like a dime a dozen guys

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Seattle still has Carson, for whatever that's worth, and I would imagine they likely re-sign Penny..but if they don't, they'd better get someone decent, cuz Carson is falling apart.

I don't think Carson will remain on the roster, but that might just be me. They would save 3.5 mill in cap space if they release him. Problem being they need to address couple of other positions first in the draft before taking a RB so be a 4th or later and that's kind of late to find a starting quality RB. They are in a jam roster wise.

 

[TREFF]

I don't think Carson will remain on the roster, but that might just be me. They would save 3.5 mill in cap space if they release him. Problem being they need to address couple of other positions first in the draft before taking a RB so be a 4th or later and that's kind of late to find a starting quality RB. They are in a jam roster wise.

At least they're on the right side of the cap, and could be in an even better position by cutting Wagner..if they felt they needed to.

My money is on them re-signing Penney and keeping that core offensive group for at least one more year. But heck, there's still persistent rumblings around here about trading for RW, all bets are off in that instance

 

[Clayton]

Fundamental issue with CEH is that lack of long speed. McKinnon effectively passed him up in the depth charts last year because of that 4.4(ish) speed. There might be some need for a goaline back in the future but last year they were able to effectively use the FB a lot in short yardage and CEH can make a guy miss. The issue imo is that teams play the Chiefs soft and a faster RB is pretty clearly the best thing against that.

 

[TREFF]

Fundamental issue with CEH is that lack of long speed. McKinnon effectively passed him up in the depth charts last year because of that 4.4(ish) speed. There might be some need for a goaline back in the future but last year they were able to effectively use the FB a lot in short yardage and CEH can make a guy miss. The issue imo is that teams play the Chiefs soft and a faster RB is pretty clearly the best thing against that.

I peg CEH's problems grinding out yardage when the hole isn't huge as a much bigger issue than him outrunning a DB with an angle on him. Yes quicker backs might play better against an oncoming LB ot safety in space, but if they can't get past the Dline half the time, what difference does it make?
Take away the 2 game stretch against LAC and Philly early on (31 for 202) and he had a 3.62 ypc for his other 98 carries..generally meaning, your not getting to space where slipping a LB or safety is gonna spring you.
Same applies to his rookie year, 2 big games, which at this point in his career, those big games can be referred to as flukes, but anyways, 2 big games, accounted for about 37% of his total production. The rest of the time he was toting the rock at 3.88.

He can slip tackles, make people miss..he cannot break tackles, at least not very well..that's more the makeup of 3rd down specialist than it is a guy you could turn to force safeties into the box.

 

[SteelersPride]

Leave mike davis alone.

 

[Clayton]

I peg CEH's problems grinding out yardage when the hole isn't huge as a much bigger issue than him outrunning a DB with an angle on him. Yes quicker backs might play better against an oncoming LB ot safety in space, but if they can't get past the Dline half the time, what difference does it make?
Take away the 2 game stretch against LAC and Philly early on (31 for 202) and he had a 3.62 ypc for his other 98 carries..generally meaning, your not getting to space where slipping a LB or safety is gonna spring you.
Same applies to his rookie year, 2 big games, which at this point in his career, those big games can be referred to as flukes, but anyways, 2 big games, accounted for about 37% of his total production. The rest of the time he was toting the rock at 3.88.

He can slip tackles, make people miss..he cannot break tackles, at least not very well..that's more the makeup of 3rd down specialist than it is a guy you could turn to force safeties into the box.

Its not so much about CEHs issues. Its about who you get to mix in the rotation. Chiefs oline is decent and faces light boxes. At that point it's not about finding holes. Its about maximizing all of the space the defense is giving the Chiefs.

 

[averagejoe]

The rumor that Saquon Barkley won't be kept past 2022 adds an interesting wrinkle imo.

The knock on a lot of college RB is they aren't ready to pick up blitzes/block on 3rd down. Adding one this year gives him a year to learn the skills. Maybe this is a project the Giants would rather not invest in.
But talented RB are dwindling - either as FA or rookies.

 

[Clayton]

FWIW, CEH also has a high YPA in 3 of his 4 playoff games. Those three teams didnt care enough to stop him and unfortunately the Chiefs didnt give him enough reps.

Looking at CEH's "advanced" stats and he has better yards before contact and after contact than Darrel Williams. Weirdly a weak point in his game is his receiving depth of target is 3 yards back from where Williams is getting it on average and CEH doesn't make it up. One would think this is an area that CEH should improve because the whole reason you take him in the draft in the first place is the idea that he can be a receiver. That is the part of his game that has been a total failure.

Only being comparable to Darrel Williams is really disappointing for a 1st rounder. I see the Chiefs sticking with him in some capacity but I halfway expect another rookie to get drafted between rd3-rd5 and I think he'd have a good chance of overtaking CEH. Alternatively, the Chiefs could just simply bring back Jet Mckinnon and give him the starting duties. Whatever it is, I think avoiding KC's backfield in fantasy seems like a smart bet as always.

 

[TREFF]

The rumor that Saquon Barkley won't be kept past 2022 adds an interesting wrinkle imo.

The knock on a lot of college RB is they aren't ready to pick up blitzes/block on 3rd down. Adding one this year gives him a year to learn the skills. Maybe this is a project the Giants would rather not invest in.
But talented RB are dwindling - either as FA or rookies.

Well that's been the knock since forever, just gets to be a bigger and bigger issue as teams pass more and more.
Most backs in a spread type college offense are chipping, and then running routes, not identifying and picking up blitzes. It's getting to be a scarcely taught skill until you get to the NFL.

I dunno about the talented RB's dwindling..just in the past three years we've added- N Harris, J. Williams, Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, ETN (maybe he's talented..I mean, we assume), J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Akers, Swift, J Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Montgomery, Singletary, and D. Harris/Stevenson..that's a lot of strong talent in just 3 years. We're due for a draft that's a little light there

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Well that's been the knock since forever, just gets to be a bigger and bigger issue as teams pass more and more.
Most backs in a spread type college offense are chipping, and then running routes, not identifying and picking up blitzes. It's getting to be a scarcely taught skill until you get to the NFL.

I dunno about the talented RB's dwindling..just in the past three years we've added- N Harris, J. Williams, Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, ETN (maybe he's talented..I mean, we assume), J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Akers, Swift, J Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Montgomery, Singletary, and D. Harris/Stevenson..that's a lot of strong talent in just 3 years. We're due for a draft that's a little light there

I think this years RB corp will look similar to 2019 RB corp. No elite types but some solid RBs that could be a nice addition.

 

[TREFF]

I think this years RB corp will look similar to 2019 RB corp. No elite types but some solid RBs that could be a nice addition.

Josh Jacobs had all the intangibles and makeup of being able to be elite, he was hands down the class of that draft. And at times he's looked like he was on his way to becoming that guy, then doesn't. Whether it was usage, or him hitting a ceiling, or maybe both, that hasn't entirely panned out, but he's certainly been worthy. The rest is a mixed bag. They haven't made you regret picking them, they haven't exactly made you proud either.

 

[Clayton]

Josh Jacobs had all the intangibles and makeup of being able to be elite, he was hands down the class of that draft. And at times he's looked like he was on his way to becoming that guy, then doesn't. Whether it was usage, or him hitting a ceiling, or maybe both, that hasn't entirely panned out, but he's certainly been worthy. The rest is a mixed bag. They haven't made you regret picking them, they haven't exactly made you proud either.

I do remember being higher on Josh Jacobs than any guy in this class. I'd say his hype coming out was similar to ETN and Harris from last year although in retrospect Harris' workhorse ability certainly does elevate him. Raiders were 6th in passing yards per game last year and Steelers 29th, though. Somewhat hard to compare the two.

Raiders were 29th in red zone efficiency last year which is mind boggling. Darren Waller only had 2 TDs? Something isnt right with that offense.

 

[SteelersPride]

I do remember being higher on Josh Jacobs than any guy in this class. I'd say his hype coming out was similar to ETN and Harris from last year although in retrospect Harris' workhorse ability certainly does elevate him. Raiders were 6th in passing yards per game last year and Steelers 29th, though. Somewhat hard to compare the two.

Raiders were 29th in red zone efficiency last year which is mind boggling. Darren Waller only had 2 TDs? Something isnt right with that offense.

Perhaps carr.

 

[TREFF]

I do remember being higher on Josh Jacobs than any guy in this class. I'd say his hype coming out was similar to ETN and Harris from last year although in retrospect Harris' workhorse ability certainly does elevate him. Raiders were 6th in passing yards per game last year and Steelers 29th, though. Somewhat hard to compare the two.

Raiders were 29th in red zone efficiency last year which is mind boggling. Darren Waller only had 2 TDs? Something isnt right with that offense.

There's been multiple things wrong with the Raiders offense, many of which point towards John Gruden attempting to force defensive matchups with personal, rather than imposing his will using his best players. That's why you'd constantly see schmucks like the #3 TE scoring TD's, or the over use of Jalen Richard or the likes of Agholor and Zay Jones being the featured receivers any given week. Then of course there the Ruggs issue (who should've never been drafted where he was in the first place), and the criminal under-usage of B. Edwards and yes, definitely the under-usage of Jacobs. And then Grudens racism is exposed, he quits..the team comes together and plays well, but they have no offensive identity. They do stop the ridiculousness of trying to force matchup advantages and go back to just using the best guys, but there's no real plan.

And then, theres Derek f'n Carr...a poor mans Cousins, a rich mans Alex Smith..the guy refuses to throw outside unless theres a blown coverage and no one is around his target. He just wont do it. I dream of the day the Raiders part ways with Carr...even if it means they make a mistake and go backwards, for a few years, at least its an effort to overcome mediocrity.

As to Waller..his big advantage is that he's so much faster than LB's, he needs space to use that to create separation, there isn't much space available in the red zone. He can outleverage DB's, but that's not the big part of his game. If he's scoring, it's generally from outside the ten or further. Inside the ten, he's more the decoy to open up other options..like Renfrow or the backup TE's

Perhaps carr.

DING DING DING....Tell him what he's won Johnny!!!!

 

[Clayton]

Perhaps carr.

Probably. I believe their season ended the same way the Chiefs season ended - Carr threw it into double (triple?) coverage and the Bengals stopped them.

 

[averagejoe]

I dunno about the talented RB's dwindling..just in the past three years we've added- N Harris, J. Williams, Michael Carter, Elijah Mitchell, ETN (maybe he's talented..I mean, we assume), J. Taylor, JK Dobbins, Akers, Swift, J Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Miles Sanders, Montgomery, Singletary, and D. Harris/Stevenson..that's a lot of strong talent in just 3 years. We're due for a draft that's a little light there

That is a decent list. But some had more hype than actual production. You could arguably narrow the list down to Taylor, Harris & Mitchell.

The rest either dont get used enough, are not on a run-first team, split time, or play on a poor offense. In any case, the fantasy points are not steady enough.

Which may be the norm for RB.

 

[TREFF]

That is a decent list. But some had more hype than actual production. You could arguably narrow the list down to Taylor, Harris & Mitchell.

The rest either dont get used enough, are not on a run-first team, split time, or play on a poor offense. In any case, the fantasy points are not steady enough.

Which may be the norm for RB.

That may be the case unfortunately, which is why, for our purposes, those precious few who do get used a lot and do provide consistent production are valued like gold.

I do believe Dobbins will cement his name on that list this year (would've this past season if not for the injury), and I expect J. Williams to also put his stamp on it once Gordon leaves town. The rest? yeah, depends on usage, some of them, Jacobs, Harris/Stevenson will be entering new offensive schemes, maybe their usage increases, and if it does maybe they can take a spot on the list, maybe they just aren't that guy, Sanders really came on strong once he returned from his little hiccup and the Eagles fully committed to the run while he was out, if that continues, he could also make the cut. The rest? Well, we generally need a minimum of 2 RB's, and they're good at filling one of those spots without a desperation Hail Mary start of whatever scat back you hope catches 5 passes that week. My opinion of Michael Carter is still higher than his production justifies, I'm not ready to stick him in with the also rans just yet.

And that's kind of what this class appears to consist of. 3-4 more Singletary's/Montgomery's. Never know though, there could be a James Robinson or Elijah Mitchell, or Phillip Lindsay, in there somewhere..the trick is identifying that guy. Not easy to do, because if it was, they'd be drafted higher.

 

[leftypower]

That may be the case unfortunately, which is why, for our purposes, those precious few who do get used a lot and do provide consistent production are valued like gold.

I do believe Dobbins will cement his name on that list this year (would've this past season if not for the injury), and I expect J. Williams to also put his stamp on it once Gordon leaves town. The rest? yeah, depends on usage, some of them, Jacobs, Harris/Stevenson will be entering new offensive schemes, maybe their usage increases, and if it does maybe they can take a spot on the list, maybe they just aren't that guy, Sanders really came on strong once he returned from his little hiccup and the Eagles fully committed to the run while he was out, if that continues, he could also make the cut. The rest? Well, we generally need a minimum of 2 RB's, and they're good at filling one of those spots without a desperation Hail Mary start of whatever scat back you hope catches 5 passes that week. My opinion of Michael Carter is still higher than his production justifies, I'm not ready to stick him in with the also rans just yet.

And that's kind of what this class appears to consist of. 3-4 more Singletary's/Montgomery's. Never know though, there could be a James Robinson or Elijah Mitchell, or Phillip Lindsay, in there somewhere..the trick is identifying that guy. Not easy to do, because if it was, they'd be drafted higher.

Love reading your (and all) assessments of backfields. Spot on with the few and far between 'workhorse' types. It seems there are a few that may well be capable each yr but in today's league most seem to get limited as the passing game becomes more and more the central point of offenses. I'd be surprised if we see any RB this yr drafted before RD 3-4.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Love reading your (and all) assessments of backfields. Spot on with the few and far between 'workhorse' types. It seems there are a few that may well be capable each yr but in today's league most seem to get limited as the passing game becomes more and more the central point of offenses. I'd be surprised if we see any RB this yr drafted before RD 3-4.

You could be right about the round they start getting drafted, but we will be watching the few RB needy teams to see who they draft and they’ll go early in FF drafts.