TC 2023 thread

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

Since Ron Rivera’s arrival in 2020, he has seriously de-emphasized the offensive line through high draft picks and quality free agent signings. Instead of building a team from the foundation on up, Rivera has chosen to go bargain basement shopping on the O-line while jettisoning some higher-priced, higher-preforming veterans either via means of them leaving through free agency or outright cuts.



The results - a 22-27-1 three-season W/L record, an offense that has consistently ranked in the bottom third of the league in both points scored and total yards, and a unit that has allowed an average of 47 sacks per season (bottom 7 in the league over that time period) while averaging 25th worst in rushing yards per carry. Last year in this pass-happy NFL, Washington’s line ranked 27th in ESPN’s pass block win rate and 23rd in adjusted sack rate.

Leno returns for his third season in Washington as the team’s most-seasoned starter. At age 32, he’s still going strong, not having missed a start in two seasons. However, 2022 was a rough one for him as he allowed 37 blown blocks (tied for 4th most among all offensive tackles), and eight sacks (tied for 6th worst). this wasnt addressed in the draft

Nick Gates - Gates came over from the Giants in free agency and is projected to be the Commanders starting center after long-time starter Chase Roullier was released this offseason.

There are times when Gates struggles with the bull-rush, but he has good overall hand placement, is sound in the run game and seemed to do a nice job setting the protections when he played center. He’s a downgrade to a healthy Roullier,, we did draft stromberg

Andrew Wylie - The former starting right tackle for the Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs joined Washington this spring as a priority free agent signing. He started all 17 regular season games in 2022 but was second in the NFL in blown blocks (45) and tied for third in sacks allowed (11).

Some blame the blown blocks and sacks on quarterback Patrick Mahomes holding the ball too long and “improvising” in the pocket. Regardless, he’ll need to clean that up here in Washington,, didnt address this i the draft either

Ricky Stromberg - Taken in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Stromberg was viewed by many to be Chase Roullier’s replacement at center - that is until ole Ron came out and declared him a “developmental” prospect. Nothing like your head coaching spending a top 100 pick on a “developmental” guy, then coming out and calling the player that in public before even seeing him in training camp. i think he will end up being a decent center
Braeden Daniels - Another “developmental” guy taken by Rivera in the fourth round, Daniels has tackle/guard versatility and if all plays out right, could be in the running for the swing tackle position this season. He’ll be up against incumbent Cornelius Lucas for that role, but Lucas has struggled with speed off the edge and if Daniels could show a bit better in that regard, the staff could opt for the younger player over the aging veteran.
a 4th rounder should be a developmental guy , no issue with this pick

Chris Paul Paul is an athletic, powerful lineman with the ability to kick out to tackle in a pinch. He may need another year of development to be deemed NFL-ready, but there is a glimmer of hope that the staff can eventually turn him into a decent player. exactly what a 7th rounder is and i think he can be at ;east a good BU o/lineman for his career if not more

i just dont think you can get by with this type of o/line and hence my anger at drafting 2 dbs over getting the LOS tightened up

 

[skinsdad62]

The Offseason Skeptic Examines Offensive Linemen

What is the chance that Saahdiq Charles or Chris Paul breaks out in 2023?

www.hogshaven.com

In the two seasons when Charles has seen significant playing time his performance appears to have gone backward, at least as judged by PFF blocking grades. In 2021, splitting time between right guard (115 snaps), right tackle (71 snaps) and left guard (56 snaps), he had an overall blocking grade of 67.6 (ranked 48th among guards), a pass blocking grade of 62.3 (ranked 64th) and an impressive run blocking grade of 79.2 (ranked 10th). In 2022, playing 287/290 snaps at right guard, his grades declined dramatically. His overall blocking grade dropped to 43.6 (ranked 121st), his pass blocking grade dropped to 29.7 (ranked 121st) and his run blocking grade dropped to 51.3 (ranked 108th).

The only other player that Rivera has mentioned as being in serious contention for the position is second-year OL Chris Paul, who has played one game for the Commanders, in the season finale against Dallas. In that one start, Paul posted an overall PFF blocking grade of 55.6 (rank 86th), pass blocking grade of 56.9 (rank 80th) and a run blocking grade of 55.0 (rank 87th).. not looking good


Altogether, two to three players out of 24 with similar playing time to Saahdiq Charles in their third seasons truly broke out to become full time starters in their fourth seasons.
That places the estimated chance that a player like Charles will become a full time starter in his fourth season at between 8.3% and 12.5%.

In an article on offensive player development timelines earlier this offseason, I estimated the probability of an interior offensive lineman drafted on late Day 3 (draft rounds 5-7) becoming a primary starter in his second season to be 0.179 (17.9% chance). thats what we have in paul right now Out of 27 offensive linemen who started a single game in their first seasons over the last decade, five played more than 50% of offensive snaps in their second seasons, giving a starting conversion rate of 0.185, or 18.5%.

Using those numbers, we can calculate the probability of Rivera’s plan failing to find a starting left guard. The probability of Chris Paul failing to become a starter is 1.000 – 0.185 = 0.815. The probability of Saahdiq Charles failing to become a starter is 1.000 – 0.125 = 0.875. The joint probability of both players failing to become a starter in 2023 is therefore 0.815 x 0.875 = 0.713 or 71.3%.





the probability either of these guys can be a competent starter this year arent very good

 

[skinsdad62]

 

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[skinsdad62]

 

[Sportster 72]

I don't want Murray, he doesn't work hard enough.

I don't remember the local media giving Cousins so much support as they have since the QB programs last night. They all said he is goofy and he is but they have done a 180 on how hard he works and how good a QB he is. dad and I told them that 9-10 years ago.

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

 

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[Sportster 72]

Got me all excited dad, I thought my nephew had a chance to play for Washington .... a former Bowie State DE.

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

 

[skinsdad62]

rookies report in 7 days !!!, stick figure and quan are unsigned

 

[skinsdad62]

Commanders Film Room: KJ Henry - HTTR4LIFE.com

Washington Commanders 5th-round draft pick KJ Henry is entering his rookie season in a pretty good spot. The Commanders’ future at the edge rusher position is currently unknown at best. Chase Young enters the year looking to get back where he was in his rookie season before injuring his knee...

httr4life.com

a look at henry , could be a good pick

 

[skinsdad62]

2023 training camp preview | Wide receiver

Commanders.com will be breaking down each position and how they’ve changed in the past year. Next up are the wide receivers.

www.commanders.com

wr5 and wr6 are something to watch

 

[skinsdad62]