Super Bowl game notes

[BINGO]

Cosell on Kaepernick: ?I thought he did a really good job of stepping up in the pocket.?

 

[NinerSickness]

Tecmo Bowl predicts San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl victory - San Jose Mercury News

That's the best football article I've read all year.

 

[BINGO]

That's the best football article I've read all year.

 

[BINGO]

Cosell: ?Ray Lewis is going to struggle against this offense.?

 

[MHSL82]

The problem I have is one dude basically changed the process. I don't care if he's a regular or not, the tail can't wag the dog. The mods should have warned him to stop. If not ban him. Sorry, but that's what should have happened. You can't let one person (or even a very few) dictate for the majority. That's a very slippery slope.

Very true, but that was also the reason for the Rep Wars and the subsequent Rep removal. Maybe the administrators saw a similar thing happening or going to happen. Still, I agree with you. Just warn and then ban the people who are so childish. I liked the like button because I could ignore it or press it to say something was funny or that I saw a reply to me and was on the same page.

The Bolded.

I thought it was funny at first. And it never bothered me at all i hardly even noticed it half the time.

Either way Go Niners!

Got it. Same page. I think there could be other reasons for the removal, too.

Just like in the above reply to the above quote, I think it should have stayed. He said it didn't work for ESPN but then didn't say how it didn't work or see if it worked here. Absent his likes, it worked on this board, at least. They could move it from view even more, like instead of the Q-Reply button (if not quoting, I just press "END" on my keyboard and it takes me to the reply place) and also not show who liked it until you hovered your mouse over it. I suggested that, but no dice.

They did move the share button, though I thought that was less important. Now, when you share, you share the whole thread, not just a post - I haven't shared before but I assume so because the share is only on the top post of each page.

Go Niners! "Like"

 

[BINGO]

Predicting Super Bowl XLVII
Breaking down the big game, plus analyzing several prop bets
Originally Published: January 23, 2013
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire

Colin Kaepernick has rejuvenated the San Francisco 49ers' offensive attack.

During the playoffs, we here at numberFire have been projecting the upset odds and likely winners for each contest. Two weeks in a row, the Baltimore Ravens pulled off extraordinary upsets over the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the AFC, allowing LB Ray Lewis to play his final game in New Orleans in Super Bowl XLVII. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC, as we predicted, and should have the upper hand in the Harbaugh Bowl.

Let's dive into the matchup and look at some always entertaining props for Super Bowl Sunday.

Offense​

On Sunday, QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens' offense outplayed the No. 1 offense in the league -- and by a good margin. Flacco did an excellent job of taking care of the ball, throwing three touchdowns to zero interceptions on top of 240 yards passing. Heading into New Orleans, the Ravens' offense will need to play keep up once again.

numberFireThe Ravens own a league-average offense, ranking No. 13 in the NFL after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses. Flacco and the passing attack add 5.2 points per game above what a league-average offense would be expected to score. And while Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce make up the No. 5 opponent-adjusted running game in the AFC, they still cost the Ravens 22 points this season due to the fact that passing is far more efficient than running in today's NFL.

The 49ers, on the other hand, downright dominate on the ground. Between QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore, San Francisco owns the top rushing attack in the NFL. The Niners' running game added 55 points above what a league average offense would score this season -- a huge number for any ground game and 10 more points than the No. 2-ranked Washington Redskins. Add in the No. 7 opponent-adjusted passing offense in the NFL, and you have the third-most efficient offense in the league, which adds a point above expectation for every seven offensive plays.

The edge here goes to the 49ers, but turnovers loom large, as we saw in the AFC Championship Game. Expect the Niners to pound the ground game while the Ravens take more of an aerial attack, looking for big plays to WRs Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith.

Defense​

The Ravens have always been defined by Lewis and their hard-hitting defense, which ranks No. 3 in the AFC after adjusting for strength of opponents. Interestingly, teams tend to run on the Ravens more than most teams. Their defensive pass-to-run ratio was 1.22 in the regular season, the lowest of any playoff team. This is notable because defenses with low pass-to-run ratios are typically behind more often -- since teams run when they are ahead. Baltimore's run defense ranks No. 20 in the NFL, having prevented only 29 points from being scored that a league-average defense would allow (14 of which came this postseason).

The 49ers, on the other hand, prevent almost four points per game from being scored against the run, No. 3 in the NFL behind only the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos. San Francisco owns the No. 5 opponent-adjusted defense in the league and has prevented just shy of seven touchdowns versus expectation this year. Keep in mind, though, that Baltimore's defense already eliminated the top two offenses in the AFC in the last two rounds.

The key matchup will be Kaepernick and Gore versus the Ravens' run defense. Kaepernick finished the year with a 49.2 percent run success rate (the percentage of plays where he increased the 49ers' chances of scoring), No. 6 in the NFL among players with at least 60 carries. Gore finished No. 3 in the same statistic (37.9 percent success rate) among players with at least 200 carries.

Once again, the edge goes to the 49ers by a decent margin. As far as turnovers go, both teams had 25 takeaways in the regular season -- although turnovers are a fairly random stat on a week-to-week and season-to-season basis.

One last note is that the Ravens' special teams added 10 points above the 49ers' special-teams production, mostly thanks to Jacoby Jones' return duties.

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

Very true, but that was also the reason for the Rep Wars and the subsequent Rep removal. Maybe the administrators saw a similar thing happening or going to happen. Still, I agree with you. Just warn and then ban the people who are so childish. I liked the like button because I could ignore it or press it to say something was funny or that I saw a reply to me and was on the same page.



Got it. Same page. I think there could be other reasons for the removal, too.

Just like in the above reply to the above quote, I think it should have stayed. He said it didn't work for ESPN but then didn't say how it didn't work or see if it worked here. Absent his likes, it worked on this board, at least. They could move it from view even more, like instead of the Q-Reply button (if not quoting, I just press "END" on my keyboard and it takes me to the reply place) and also not show who liked it until you hovered your mouse over it. I suggested that, but no dice.

They did move the share button, though I thought that was less important. Now, when you share, you share the whole thread, not just a post - I haven't shared before but I assume so because the share is only on the top post of each page.

Go Niners! "Like"

 

[BINGO]

Game Projection​

Most experts predict this game to be close, and the Vegas line opened favoring the 49ers by four points.

A little bit about our methodology: We used advanced efficiency metrics to evaluate every aspect of both teams. Note that these metrics are very different from traditional statistics. For example, even though the Pittsburgh Steelers ranked as the No. 1 defense in yards allowed per game, when we adjust for the situational value of each play and ability of opponents, they finished the season ranked No. 8 in defensive efficiency. Once we have those metrics, we then find the most comparable teams and matchups based on these efficiency scores. With each matchup weighted based on how similar the teams are to the 2012 Ravens and 49ers, we aggregate the results to attain highly accurate projections of future performance.

The top comparable is the AFC Championship Game played in January 2006 between the Steelers and Broncos. Here, the Steelers are most comparable to the Ravens and the Broncos represent the 49ers. The Steelers dominated the Broncos, winning 34-17 en route to defeating the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Based on the comparables, the Ravens actually emerge as the winner in four of the top five games; that being said, the Niners won in 10 of the top 15 and 58.7 percent of all similar matchups. Interestingly enough, since 2000, the top predictor for this year's Super Bowl is Super Bowl XL in 2006 between the Steelers and Seahawks -- but with the Niners being compared to the Steelers. In fact, both the 49ers and Ravens grade out as above 80 percent matches with that Super Bowl-winning Steelers squad. That game grades out as an 87.1 percent match to this year's matchup.

Super Bowl

Prediction: San Francisco 25, Baltimore 22

Prop Bet Analysis​

Which Ravens player will score the first touchdown for his team?

At first glance, this seems like a shoo-in to be Rice, as he led the team in touchdowns with 10. Looking at the players to score first, Smith and Rice led all Ravens with four times each this year; before last week against the New England Patriots, Rice had not been the first Raven to find the end zone since Week 9 against the Cleveland Browns. In addition, both Vonta Leach and Anthony Allen vultured touchdowns from Rice early in games. Of course, a single season of comparables is not significant enough to make any recommendations, so we dug into our list of game predictors to determine the likely culprit.

As we noted above, the strongest comparable for this Super Bowl is the Steelers-Broncos AFC Championship Game that was played in January 2006. Unsurprisingly, the Ravens are a strong match for that Pittsburgh team, given their style of play and similar efficiencies on both sides of the ball. In that game, the first scorer for the Steelers was none other than Cedrick Wilson, who could only charitably be described as a backup receiver at that time. In the next comparable (Washington at Seattle in a divisional round game in January 2006), the scorer for the team most similar to Baltimore was Santana Moss, the team's No. 1 WR, who led the Redskins with 84 catches and nine touchdowns.

The trend continues throughout the comparables, giving strong value to the wide receiver options, even without the Ravens' recent tendency to throw the ball for a score. With Smith and Boldin listed at plus-400, both have solid value given their first-quarter targets (Boldin at 32, Smith at 29). Boldin was the most targeted Ravens receiver in the red zone in the first quarter, at four this season, but that does not mean much given the small sample size. Don't discount Dennis Pitta at plus-500 given his production in the red zone and 21 first-quarter targets.

Our recommendation: Smith, plus-400




Will there be a score in the first 7:30 of the game?

In games involving the Ravens this season, there has been a score in the first 7:30 of the game 11 of 19 times, 57.9 percent of the time. In games involving the 49ers, it happened less, seven of 18 times (38.9 percent) -- although it has happened in each of their playoff games. This is a very strong value given the line, which is minus-180 for "Yes" and plus-150 for "No". The plus-150 corresponds to odds equal to 40 percent, which means that as long as a score doesn't happen 60 percent of the time, plus-150 is a positive value play. Clearly, based on this season, the "No" bet is a very strong play, but let's dig into our comparables a little bit since this year is a small sample size.

Starting right off the bat, our top two predictors (Pittsburgh vs. Denver in 2006 and Washington vs. Seattle in 2006) both started their games slow out of the gate, not scoring until late in the first quarter in the former and nearly halfway through the second in the latter. Somewhat shockingly, we don't see a score in the first 7:30 until the sixth comparable (Carolina vs. New York Giants in 2009), which featured a John Carney field goal with 9:39 left in the first quarter.

Our recommendation: No, plus-150





What quarter will have the most scoring?

Running a quick query, since 2000, we find that scoring by quarter generally breaks down like this per team: 4.3, 6.6, 4.5, 6.0. The logic is sound -- there's more scoring in the second and fourth quarters because of the increased time pressure with the end of the half/game, respectively. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to place a bet on those two … unless the value isn't there!

The first quarter sits at plus-250, the second quarter is at plus-170, the third is at plus-300 and the fourth closes at plus-200, generally following the scoring pattern as broken down above. Interestingly, and perhaps related to the prop above, San Francisco scores only 3.6 points in the first quarter, ranking No. 23 in the league. This rises to 7.8 in the second, 6.3 in the third and 8.4 in the fourth. Baltimore is a little more uniform, scoring 5.4, 6.9, 6.3 and 6.8.

Right off the bat, given San Francisco's slow start and Baltimore's … well, very average start, we can scratch off the plus-250 first quarter bet as a nonstarter. After that, it gets a little more interesting. San Francisco scores most of its points in the fourth, whereas Baltimore is essentially a wash between the second and the fourth. Both teams score an above-average 6.3 points in the third quarter, though, giving serious consideration to the third quarter bet at plus-300. When it comes down to it, the highest probability-to-value ratio comes in the fourth quarter at plus-200, but none of the bets gives significant value due to the juice, which accounts for an additional 19.3 percent loss in value over the four bets. Compare that to your standard spread or over/under bet that has a 4.5 percent total vig.

Our recommendation: No bet

 

[BINGO]

Five Baltimore Ravens stats that stand out as the Ravens are heading to New Orleans for Super Bowl XLVII - baltimoresun.com

 

[BINGO]

Ravens to arrive in New Orleans on Monday for Super Bowl - baltimoresun.com

 

[ChrisPozz]

Harbaugh does not want brother to know 49ers' work schedule | CSN Bay Area

Greg Roman, the 49ers' offensive coordinator, was not asked to interview for an NFL head-coaching vacancy when the 49ers had a bye week at the start of the playoffs. He said Sunday that there is no way he would've been able to make all of the adjustments in the 49ers' run game against the Green Bay Packers if he'd been pulled away from his job to sit down for an interview.

 

[ChrisPozz]

Cam Inman:

Tuesday's Super Bowl Media Day frenzy: #49ers 10-11 am, #Ravens 12:15-1:15 pm

Ohhh, poor Bay Area media. They have to get up early. I love it.

 

[deep9er]

Cosell: ?Ray Lewis is going to struggle against this offense.?

Q: Is Joe Flacco underrated?

COSELL: I think he’s a much better passer than he’s given credit for. He’s an elite passer. He’s an elite arm talent. Prior to Kaepernick, I firmly believed that Flacco had the strongest arm in the NFL, and arm strength is not throwing the ball 90 yards. Arm strength is driving intermediate throws with ease at 22, 25 yards between defenders. Flacco is a master at that. Those are not easy throws because they’re really 40-yard throws when you count the drop. He’s effortless with those throws. He almost doesn’t need to step into those throws. He’s a great deep ball thrower, playing in a offense that’s very hard to complete a high percentage because they drive the ball down the field very often. There are very few easy completions in that offense. And his receivers, quite frankly, struggle winning against man coverage. So he’s making very difficult throws to covered receivers.

yep, from just the passing part of it, to me they're about the same? same for these play-off games that is. i'd expect Flacco will throw about as well in the superbowl too?

good thing their receivers aren't as good as Atlanta's.

 

[deep9er]

Predicting Super Bowl XLVII
Breaking down the big game, plus analyzing several prop bets
Originally Published: January 23, 2013
By Nik Bonaddio and Keith Goldner | numberFire

Colin Kaepernick has rejuvenated the San Francisco 49ers' offensive attack.

During the playoffs, we here at numberFire have been projecting the upset odds and likely winners for each contest. Two weeks in a row, the Baltimore Ravens pulled off extraordinary upsets over the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the AFC, allowing LB Ray Lewis to play his final game in New Orleans in Super Bowl XLVII. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC, as we predicted, and should have the upper hand in the Harbaugh Bowl.

Let's dive into the matchup and look at some always entertaining props for Super Bowl Sunday.

Offense​

On Sunday, QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens' offense outplayed the No. 1 offense in the league -- and by a good margin. Flacco did an excellent job of taking care of the ball, throwing three touchdowns to zero interceptions on top of 240 yards passing. Heading into New Orleans, the Ravens' offense will need to play keep up once again.

numberFireThe Ravens own a league-average offense, ranking No. 13 in the NFL after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses. Flacco and the passing attack add 5.2 points per game above what a league-average offense would be expected to score. And while Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce make up the No. 5 opponent-adjusted running game in the AFC, they still cost the Ravens 22 points this season due to the fact that passing is far more efficient than running in today's NFL.

The 49ers, on the other hand, downright dominate on the ground. Between QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Frank Gore, San Francisco owns the top rushing attack in the NFL. The Niners' running game added 55 points above what a league average offense would score this season -- a huge number for any ground game and 10 more points than the No. 2-ranked Washington Redskins. Add in the No. 7 opponent-adjusted passing offense in the NFL, and you have the third-most efficient offense in the league, which adds a point above expectation for every seven offensive plays.

The edge here goes to the 49ers, but turnovers loom large, as we saw in the AFC Championship Game. Expect the Niners to pound the ground game while the Ravens take more of an aerial attack, looking for big plays to WRs Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith.

Defense​

The Ravens have always been defined by Lewis and their hard-hitting defense, which ranks No. 3 in the AFC after adjusting for strength of opponents. Interestingly, teams tend to run on the Ravens more than most teams. Their defensive pass-to-run ratio was 1.22 in the regular season, the lowest of any playoff team. This is notable because defenses with low pass-to-run ratios are typically behind more often -- since teams run when they are ahead. Baltimore's run defense ranks No. 20 in the NFL, having prevented only 29 points from being scored that a league-average defense would allow (14 of which came this postseason).

The 49ers, on the other hand, prevent almost four points per game from being scored against the run, No. 3 in the NFL behind only the Chicago Bears and Denver Broncos. San Francisco owns the No. 5 opponent-adjusted defense in the league and has prevented just shy of seven touchdowns versus expectation this year. Keep in mind, though, that Baltimore's defense already eliminated the top two offenses in the AFC in the last two rounds.

The key matchup will be Kaepernick and Gore versus the Ravens' run defense. Kaepernick finished the year with a 49.2 percent run success rate (the percentage of plays where he increased the 49ers' chances of scoring), No. 6 in the NFL among players with at least 60 carries. Gore finished No. 3 in the same statistic (37.9 percent success rate) among players with at least 200 carries.

Once again, the edge goes to the 49ers by a decent margin. As far as turnovers go, both teams had 25 takeaways in the regular season -- although turnovers are a fairly random stat on a week-to-week and season-to-season basis.

One last note is that the Ravens' special teams added 10 points above the 49ers' special-teams production, mostly thanks to Jacoby Jones' return duties.

makes sense, we have to hold down Rice and they have to hold down Gore.

yep, next would be special teams, can't do anything more on field goal kicking? so at very least, our coverages need to be solid.

 

[ChrisPozz]

ESPN Stats and Info:

Aldon Smith has recorded 34.0 of his 35.5 career sacks when the 49ers DIDN'T bring extra pass rushers.

I feel like I've posted this stat every game for the last month or so.

 

[ChrisPozz]

Harbaughs to take part in joint Super Bowl press conference | CSN Bay Area

 

[ChrisPozz]

Mindi Bach:

#49ers DC Vic Fangio the only one to speak at the podium today. He's also only one to coach w/ HCs Jim AND John Harbaugh in the NFL

 

[Bemular]

ESPN Stats and Info:

Aldon Smith has recorded 34.0 of his 35.5 career sacks when the 49ers DIDN'T bring extra pass rushers.

I feel like I've posted this stat every game for the last month or so.

That's because you have Chris - Aldon has been sack-less since the Miami game on 12/9

 

[ChrisPozz]

That's because you have Chris - Aldon has been sack-less since the Miami game on 12/9

Nah, I know that. I'm just saying ESPN keeps releasing the stat and I find myself putting it into each game thread.

------------

Matt Barrows:

The only 49er who wasn't practicing at the start of today's light practice was no. 3 tight end Garrett Celek.

 

[ChrisPozz]

Matt Maiocco:

OLB Ahmad Brooks and TE Garrett Celek are not practicing today. 49ers will release practice report later today.

Matt Barrows:

Looks like I missed Ahmad Brooks. He's also not practicing. Remember, he seemed to hurt his hand early Sunday against the Falcons.