Spring training 2018

[LHG]

I think that the Giants are known to release players who want to leave.

Yes but there are still usually a couple of guys who have opt out dates in their contracts. It seemed weird that none of them had one in this year's bubble crop.

 

[MarcoPolo]

It's early days. Well, I guess it's time for my required annual February contribution. But this year, I'll just paste in something from past year(s) :





(From Mar 7, 2012 )

It's spring training, it don't mean shit. If you doubt, look at spring stats for El-gordo Al-Fatso, or Eliezer Alfonzo's, or Todd Linden's, or so many other former Giants red-hot springs.

Heck, look at Huff's stats just last year : .369/.391/.692/1.084

Man did HE have a great season last year or what!

(Mar 14, 2017)

El Gordo Al Fatso (Edgardo Alfonzo) often had fantastic numbers in Spring training as a Giant. It never translated into regular season success, unfortunately. That's true for many players. I've since come to the conclusion that spring training numbers are pretty much useless as a measure of how good a player will be in the following 6 months.

 

[LHG]

With today being the start of spring training, I thought its time to start a new thread for all matters going on as the team gets shaped up to present its best 25 for Opening Day. The starting lineup, the backup catcher, 3/5s of the rotation and 5 or 6 bullpen pieces are locked up (not counting Watson). That leaves 6 to 8 spots up for grabs (depending on Will Smith's health and whether Tony Watson gets signed).

Here's who I see battling for these spots:

4th & 5th starters: Chris Stratton, Ty Blach, Tyler Beede, Andrew Suarez, Derek Holland, Joan Gregorio (long shot candidate)
7th & 8th (?) reliever: Julian Fernandez, Roberto Gomez, Derek Law, Reyes Moronta, Joan Gregorio, Jose Flores (long shot candidate)
Lefty reliever (possibly two spots, possible none): Steven Okert, Josh Osich, DJ Snelten, Ty Blach, Derek Holland
Backup infielder(s): Kelby Tomlinson, Pablo Sandoval, Miguel Gomez, Ryder Jones, Andres Blanco, Josh Rutledge, Chase d'Arnaud, Alen Hanson, Orlando Calixte (last 3 are long shot candidates)
4th & 5th (?) outfielder: Gorkys Hernandez, Jarrett Parker, Austin Slater, Mac Williamson, Gregor Blanco, Steven Duggar (long shot candidate)

A couple of questions have to be answered to determine the 5th outfielders spot and 8th reliever spot, mainly will the Giants be comfortable with 7 or 8 relievers. I assume that the Giants would go with two backup infielders and two backup outfielders if they roll with 7 relievers. However, if they carry a 13 man pitching staff, where would they skimp, on the infield or outfield?

The first week of spring training games are in the books, so I thought I'd revisit the race for the 18th through 25th spots on the roster. I know its early but why not look at some stats?

4th & 5th starters: Ty Blach is looking good up front. In two starts he has gone 5 innings, giving up 3 hits, no walks and striking out 7 batters. Stratton has been almost as good in 2 starts, also going 5 and giving up 4 hits, 2 walks and striking out 5 batters. Suarez hasn't started but he's looked a bit shaky in relief so far. Beede got lit up in his one spring start in the first week. Holland (see below) may be out of the running and Gregorio seems to be as well.

2nd lefty in the pen: Josh Osich has to be the early favorite to fill Will Smith's spot while he recovers from last year's surgery. He has thrown 2 innings, giving up a lone hit and striking out 3. However, Steven Okert is right behind him, throwing a pair while giving up 2 hits and striking out 2 batters. Holland looked badly in his first relief appearance, going 2 innings with 2 hits, 2 runs and a walk but did get 4 Ks. Snelten's faint hope is fading with a poor outing, finishing less than two innings while giving up 4 hits, a walk and striking out 2. His outing was the beginning of huge bullpen meltdown against the Brewers.

Last man in the pen: Law is probably at the front as his numbers are the least shaky - 2 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 1 K. Gregorio has only appearance and it was okay, giving up 1 run in 1 inning. Moronta, Gomez and Fernandez all looked awful in their 1st appearances. A few names to possibly watch: Jose Valdez, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Rogers and Casey Kelly. Unless a couple of guys really start to stand out, I think a 12 man pitching staff is likely to start the season, especially with some many early off days.

Backup infielders: Sandoval is not going without a fight. He's 3 for 10, with all his hits for extra bases (2 doubles, 1 home run). Gomez is hot too, hitting safely in 5 of his 13 ABs. Calixte has gone 5 for 12 (all singles). Who's this Kyle Jensen? Why he is the newest spring training sensation, scoring 8 runs in 12 plate appearances (4 hits and walks), hitting 3 home runs and striking out just once. I guess if he keeps that up, he may stick around to the end of spring. He, Alen Hanson and Chase d'Arnaud could be some dark horse candidates to watch.

Backup outfielders: Gregor Blanco has started hot, going 5 for 9 with a double, triple and a stolen base. Right behind him is Mac Williamson, who has slugged a double and 2 home runs (with 2 singles as well). Slater is close behind, going 4 for 10 with a home run. Hernandez is 2 for 6 with a double. Duggar is 3 for 11 with a double and home run. Parker is just 3 for 13 but has a double and home run as well.

 

[msgkings322]

Apparently the home runs are continuing at the same torrid pace as they were last year. The juiced balls are real (We X-Rayed Some MLB Baseballs. Here’s What We Found.)

Interesting stat from that link, 2014 was a low point for HRs, with total as low as they'd been all the way back in 1995 before roids really took over. Notice how we won the WS that year with almost no power? Frankly we didn't have much in 2010 or 2012 either. The 'Giants way' of defense and pitching and doubles and singles worked for that era. Our record last year proved it does not work for this one. Have we revamped things enough to compete in this era? We'll see...

 

[msgkings322]

Another interesting link from McCovey Chronicles

Are the Giants still going to be a cutter-happy team?

Rangers are going to try to fix Moore by cutting his cutter.

 

[SFGRTB]

Another interesting link from McCovey Chronicles

Are the Giants still going to be a cutter-happy team?

Rangers are going to try to fix Moore by cutting his cutter.

The cutter was his second worst pitch behind his fastball last year (a cutter and a fastball aren't really that much different anyway). It was also among the worst in the majors

His curveball was his only "good" pitch last year, and it was the fewest he's ever thrown it. He threw his cutter more than ever before, by far.

Pitching is always about adjustments. That's what Moore did when he lost his velocity on his 4-seam, he added a cutter for a different look. It just clearly wasn't working for him.

It might be tough in that park, but I could see a bounce-back from Moore is he really throws his curveball a lot more.

That article also touches on another thing I'm interested in, how the pitchers change up their pitches.

Stratton, in particular, is interesting. His curveball is very good. Like top-10 in baseball good. His slider is just okay. I'll be curious to see if he backs off the slider a bit and throws the curveball more. We unfortunately don't have the minor league data readily available, but I'd be curious if he started to turn things around based of his curveball usage.

 

[SFGRTB]

So based off what we've seen thus far, looks like an early favorite for the lineup might be:

Panik - 2B
Belt - 1B
McCutchen - RF
Posey - C
Longoria - 3B
Pence - RF
Crawford - SS
Jackson - CF

I actually kinda like that. Utilizes everyone's talents well. Belt's OBP isn't wasted hitting 6th/7th. Plenty of guys to get on ahead of Posey. Longo isn't an OBP guy, better to have him driving guys in. Not a ton of pressure on Pence.

The Giants technically haven't had a full lineup together yet, but based off how Boch has deployed these guys so far, looks like this might be it. Versus right-handers that is.

 

[calsnowskier]

Coming into spring, the door was open for Dugger to WIN the job, and so far, he has done enough to do just that. While I don’t think he has done it yet, the chances that he opens as the CFer are higher now than they were a week ago.

 

[SFGRTB]

Coming into spring, the door was open for Dugger to WIN the job, and so far, he has done enough to do just that. While I don’t think he has done it yet, the chances that he opens as the CFer are higher now than they were a week ago.

Giants are on the tube (or laptop, tablet or mobile device) today and Duggar is starting in CF. Chance to get a look at him.

But yeah he's doing all the right things so far.

 

[calsnowskier]

Apparently Duggar really dislikes Sacramento.

 

[SFGRTB]

Apparently Duggar really dislikes Sacramento.

 

[SFGRTB]

Duggar's throw to third was a bit off-line, but he had a chance to throw out Utley who was tagging up.

If he made a perfect throw there, he probably could have started looking for where to live in SF.

 

[SFGRTB]

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's Mac Williamson's new swing:

Here's his swing from last year (looking for a side view somewhere):

 

[SFGRTB]

Mac's swing might look a bit familiar, that's because he's emulating it after a pretty good hitter:

 

[calsnowskier]

I don’t think Mac has a chance for the opening day roster, but I do agree that he will be starting one of the corner slots (probably left) before the end of the season.

And this point, I think the default position on Parker is that he gets DFA’d at springs end (and he clears). His spot would then go to either Duggar or Blanco.

Pence
Jackson
McCutchen
Hernandez
Duggar/Blanco/Slater

The problem with that group is that Hernandez, Blanco and Duggar are all basically the same player. Maybe this opens the door to Mac or Slater? Or Jansen???

 

[SFGRTB]

I don’t think Mac has a chance for the opening day roster, but I do agree that he will be starting one of the corner slots (probably left) before the end of the season.

And this point, I think the default position on Parker is that he gets DFA’d at springs end (and he clears). His spot would then go to either Duggar or Blanco.

Pence
Jackson
McCutchen
Hernandez
Duggar/Blanco/Slater

The problem with that group is that Hernandez, Blanco and Duggar are all basically the same player. Maybe this opens the door to Mac or Slater? Or Jansen???

As usual, Mac has a lot going against him, mainly because of his option but also being right-handed.

At the same time, I think the Giants would be able to get Parker and Hernandez through waivers with the amount of talent still on the FA market. And with the amount of free agents on the market, Parker and Hernandez are less-likely to test the market. If they do leave, the Giants can find replacements pretty easily.

I think, as of now, Mac and Duggar would replace Hernandez and Parker. Still a long ways to go though.

Pence
Duggar
McCutchen
Jackson
Williamson

That's a pretty balanced core.

 

[calsnowskier]

As usual, Mac has a lot going against him, mainly because of his option but also being right-handed.

At the same time, I think the Giants would be able to get Parker and Hernandez through waivers with the amount of talent still on the FA market. And with the amount of free agents on the market, Parker and Hernandez are less-likely to test the market. If they do leave, the Giants can find replacements pretty easily.

I think, as of now, Mac and Duggar would replace Hernandez and Parker. Still a long ways to go though.

Pence
Duggar
McCutchen
Jackson
Williamson

That's a pretty balanced core.

I think they want Mac to get ABs, and there are not enough available ABs coming from the corner OF right now. So I don’t see Mac making it, barring injury, at this point. But the second Pence gets hurt (when, not if), he will be up and starting. The door is certainly open for Duggar, though.

 

[SFGRTB]

Certainly better than previous years with "well, player x has a large hill to climb but we like what we see"

 

[SFGRTB]

I think they want Mac to get ABs, and there are not enough available ABs coming from the corner OF right now. So I don’t see Mac making it, barring injury, at this point. But the second Pence gets hurt (when, not if), he will be up and starting. The door is certainly open for Duggar, though.

True, it's probably even better for him to stay in Sac and get comfortable with his new swing everyday. Parker is fine for what he is, a pinch hitter.

But yeah as for Duggar, I don't think the Giants will have a problem dropping Hernandez over him if he's earned it. And, as mentioned, they'll likely be able to hang onto him anyway. If Duggar is ready, he makes a ton of sense and it makes the Jackson move make more sense too.