Spring training 2018

[calsnowskier]

Certainly better than previous years with "well, player x has a large hill to climb but we like what we see"

So what are the chances Jackson ends up being the casualty if Duggar does in fact, make the team? Would prefer Jackson over Hernandez or Blanco? Or Slater (he has options, so he has next to zero chance, but he is worth the mentioning)?

 

[SFGRTB]

So what are the chances Jackson ends up being the casualty if Duggar does in fact, make the team? Would prefer Jackson over Hernandez or Blanco? Or Slater (he has options, so he has next to zero chance, but he is worth the mentioning)?

None. Jackson is very secure IMO

 

[msgkings322]

Coming into spring, the door was open for Dugger to WIN the job, and so far, he has done enough to do just that. While I don’t think he has done it yet, the chances that he opens as the CFer are higher now than they were a week ago.

Isn't he a lefty? Giants may wait until after those early Dodgers games with all their tough lefties to put him there full time. Platooning w Jackson makes more sense

 

[tzill]

So what are the chances Jackson ends up being the casualty if Duggar does in fact, make the team? Would prefer Jackson over Hernandez or Blanco? Or Slater (he has options, so he has next to zero chance, but he is worth the mentioning)?

Jax is a perfect fourth OF, if Duggar were to take the job. He can play all three spots. I'd be overjoyed if Jax got pushed to the bench.

 

[SFGRTB]

Julian Fernandez with a nice inning tonight against Seattle. Consistently hitting the high-90s, up to 99, and showed a nasty curveball. Nice, easy delivery and was spotting his fastball well.

1.0-0-0-0-0-2. 11 pitches, 8 strikes.

(sorry for the poor quality this time):

Fastball 99:

Fastball 99:

Curveball (no velo):

 

[LHG]

Julian Fernandez with a nice inning tonight against Seattle. Consistently hitting the high-90s, up to 99, and showed a nasty curveball. Nice, easy delivery and was spotting his fastball well.

1.0-0-0-0-0-2. 11 pitches, 8 strikes.

(sorry for the poor quality this time):

Fastball 99:

Fastball 99:

Curveball (no velo):

That is a nasty combination. If he shows he can harness those two for consistently good results, then I'd love to see him stay with the team.

 

[1phlapdown]

All I want this year is:
1. relative health
2. Bum/JC/Buster/Dozens/Stamos/Longo/Cutch/Melancon to have career average seasons
3. Jiggy to be completely healthy
4. Belt to play 150
5. Herk to play 120
6. Duggar to be ready when he comes up

That's not much, right?

All I want is 16 BLSVs for the year. This number represents the ave. of years '10, '12, and '14.

 

[LHG]

The first week of spring training games are in the books, so I thought I'd revisit the race for the 18th through 25th spots on the roster. I know its early but why not look at some stats?

4th & 5th starters: Ty Blach is looking good up front. In two starts he has gone 5 innings, giving up 3 hits, no walks and striking out 7 batters. Stratton has been almost as good in 2 starts, also going 5 and giving up 4 hits, 2 walks and striking out 5 batters. Suarez hasn't started but he's looked a bit shaky in relief so far. Beede got lit up in his one spring start in the first week. Holland (see below) may be out of the running and Gregorio seems to be as well.

2nd lefty in the pen: Josh Osich has to be the early favorite to fill Will Smith's spot while he recovers from last year's surgery. He has thrown 2 innings, giving up a lone hit and striking out 3. However, Steven Okert is right behind him, throwing a pair while giving up 2 hits and striking out 2 batters. Holland looked badly in his first relief appearance, going 2 innings with 2 hits, 2 runs and a walk but did get 4 Ks. Snelten's faint hope is fading with a poor outing, finishing less than two innings while giving up 4 hits, a walk and striking out 2. His outing was the beginning of huge bullpen meltdown against the Brewers.

Last man in the pen: Law is probably at the front as his numbers are the least shaky - 2 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 1 K. Gregorio has only appearance and it was okay, giving up 1 run in 1 inning. Moronta, Gomez and Fernandez all looked awful in their 1st appearances. A few names to possibly watch: Jose Valdez, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Rogers and Casey Kelly. Unless a couple of guys really start to stand out, I think a 12 man pitching staff is likely to start the season, especially with some many early off days.

Backup infielders: Sandoval is not going without a fight. He's 3 for 10, with all his hits for extra bases (2 doubles, 1 home run). Gomez is hot too, hitting safely in 5 of his 13 ABs. Calixte has gone 5 for 12 (all singles). Who's this Kyle Jensen? Why he is the newest spring training sensation, scoring 8 runs in 12 plate appearances (4 hits and walks), hitting 3 home runs and striking out just once. I guess if he keeps that up, he may stick around to the end of spring. He, Alen Hanson and Chase d'Arnaud could be some dark horse candidates to watch.

Backup outfielders: Gregor Blanco has started hot, going 5 for 9 with a double, triple and a stolen base. Right behind him is Mac Williamson, who has slugged a double and 2 home runs (with 2 singles as well). Slater is close behind, going 4 for 10 with a home run. Hernandez is 2 for 6 with a double. Duggar is 3 for 11 with a double and home run. Parker is just 3 for 13 but has a double and home run as well.

Two weeks into spring training, here's a brief statistical look at guys competing for roster spots.
4th & 5th starters
Ty Blach - He started one game last week and looked good, going 3.1 innings, giving up 3 hits, 2 runs (1 earned) and no walks.
Chris Stratton - Stratton made no starts but had one relief appearance, giving up 2 runs in 3 innings (3 H, 2 W, 6 K!)
Tyler Beede - He looked better in his 2nd start, going 3 innings and giving up 1 run on 1 hit and 1 walk with 2 strikeouts but he's still lagging behind for the 5th spot in the rotation.
Andrew Suarez - Barring a sudden collapse from Blach or Stratton, Suarez has to be out of the running. He's only pitched in relief and to the tune of a 2.000 WHIP and 7.70 ERA.
2nd lefty in bullpen
Josh Osich - He continues to look good, sporting a pristine 0.00 ERA and a beautiful 0.55 WHIP, making him, in my opinion, the favorite to be Will Smith's replacement while he continues his rehab.
Steven Okert - He is pitching well but lagging behind Osich, with a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
Derek Holland - After a disastrous first appearance, he has looked better of late, pitching 5.2 innings in 2 appearances, giving up 6 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 2 walks and striking out 5. I wonder if he's being thrown back in to the starter role. However, given Stratton and Blach's hot starts, it may be more to see if he's ready in case one falters.
DJ Snelten - He's also done better this week, going 2.2 innings with 1 hit, no walks and 1 strikeout. However, he is a longshot at this point.
Final bullpen spot
Derek Law - His week was meh, going 1 inning and giving up a run on a hit and a walk while striking out one.
Julian Fernandez - He looked good in his lone appearance this week (as SFGRTB pointed out) after two awful appearances last week. His stuff is going to keep him in camp until the last week at least.
Casey Kelly, Chris Heston, Pierce Johnson, Jose Valdez, Tyler Rogers are all still in camp and posting good numbers but all remain longshots to make the team. However, I could see one of them weasel in if Law and Fernandez don't start looking better, the Giants decide not to carry three lefthanders (and let go of Holland) and one of these guys continues to pitch lights out.
Backup infielders
Chase d'Arnaud - Slashing .364/.440/.500, he is pushing Tomlinson for that backup role.
Miguel Gomez - Has gone 2 for 9 last week, cooling off quite a bit, but still slashing .292/.308/.500 in spring.
Pablo Sandoval - He still has to be a favorite for corner backup but he's not hitting well in spring, slashing .222/.250/.500. He went 1 for 8 with no extra base hits this last week.
Kelby Tomlinson - He is hitting poorly, slashing just .238/.273/.333. There could be a chance he doesn't make the team.
Kyle Jensen - Only got 3 appearances this week. He'll be gone soon but his numbers are fun to look at.
Alen Hanson, Orlando Calixte, and Josh Rutledge are still playing but aren't hitting that well and could be more of longshots at this point, unless one gets really hot.
Backup outfielders - I have to say, this group is battling hard to make the team.
Gregor Blanco - He is trying hard to make this team, now slashing .538/.611/1.077. If Duggar goes to AAA, I wouldn't be surprised Blanco sticks around to platoon with Jackson.
Mac Williamson - He is my favorite to make it as the backup to Pence (maybe even a platoon) and McCutchen. His slash of .370/.370/.852 looks good but it would be nice if he worked on some patience at the plate.
Steven Duggar - He may be the starting or platoon center fielder but maybe he goes to AAA for some more seasoning. Either way, he's making it tough with a .292/.346/.708 slash with some good defense.
Chris Shaw - Another offensive slash that is good, he is putting up .318/.375/.591 but will probably be starting at AAA this season.
Jarrett Parker - His time with the Giants may be ending (or AAA looks like a likely destination). In a crowded outfield picture, with so many hitting well, he is making room negatively, shown by his .192/.300/.462 line thus far.
Gorkys Hernandez - He may have the inside track with his 2017 2nd half but his spring numbers - .176/.333/.412 - combined with the guys listed above - may indicate his days on the roster are numbered.
Austin Slater - He is making a trip to AAA look easy right now with a .222/.300/.389 spring slash.

 

[SFGRTB]

That is a nasty combination. If he shows he can harness those two for consistently good results, then I'd love to see him stay with the team.

From what I've heard, on side sessions he's been throwing well. All he needs to do is locate that fastball and he'll have a spot in the Giants' pen, and so far he's shown surprisingly good command.

 

[LHG]

Looking at today's game's boxscore and saw that the pitcher who finished the game for the Giants was listed as "Valdez, JA". I think Tito forgot to capitalize EZ.

 

[SFGRTB]

Current 25, for me:

Bum
Shimmy
Shark
Strat
Kirk

Does Mark have a nickname yet? - CL
Strick
Tony
Dyson (I'm not as good at this as tzill)
Gear
O-Shit
RuleV

MVP
BB9
Dozens
Stamos
Longo
Twitch
AJax
Cutch

Nic
Specs
Panda
Mac
OG Shark

Special considerations to Pierce Johnson and Steven Duggar. Both are forcing the issue and are far from out of the race.

 

[calsnowskier]

While Mac is having a stellar spring, I really don’t see him making the team. He has reasserted himself as a prospect, but he needs more ABs with his new swing. He will start in Sac Town, but will be up and starting before the end of the season.

And since Blanco, Duggar, Hernandez and (to a lesser extent) Slater are all the same type of player, I think Parker still holds thee inside track on the last OF job. Unless they only go with 4 OFers and go with d’Arnaud as a 3rd infielder instead.

 

[LHG]

While Mac is having a stellar spring, I really don’t see him making the team. He has reasserted himself as a prospect, but he needs more ABs with his new swing. He will start in Sac Town, but will be up and starting before the end of the season.

And since Blanco, Duggar, Hernandez and (to a lesser extent) Slater are all the same type of player, I think Parker still holds thee inside track on the last OF job. Unless they only go with 4 OFers and go with d’Arnaud as a 3rd infielder instead.

I think both Williamson and Slater are at a disadvantage due to the fact they both have options left. Parker and Hernandez, I think, have the inside track but both could lose their spots if they continue to perform poorly in spring. If Hernandez struggles, I see Blanco pushing him off the roster. If Parker goes, though, I think its only because Williamson makes the team. They'll want that 5th guy to be a power bat. The Giants' outfield is a bit more of a question mark than the infield so I believe they'll carry 5 outfielders (unless they decide to go with an 8 man bullpen).

 

[LHG]

Current 25, for me:

Bum
Shimmy
Shark
Strat
Kirk

Does Mark have a nickname yet? - CL
Strick
Tony
Dyson (I'm not as good at this as tzill)
Gear
O-Shit
RuleV

MVP
BB9
Dozens
Stamos
Longo
Twitch
AJax
Cutch

Nic
Specs
Panda
Mac
OG Shark

Special considerations to Pierce Johnson and Steven Duggar. Both are forcing the issue and are far from out of the race.

I know you are high on Fernandez but I cannot imagine him making the team right now. He'll go down to the wire, and I think they'll try to work out a deal to send him to the minors, but he's too erratic in actual games. He has been knocked around pretty badly in 3 of his 4 appearances. Considering that Osich is a bit of a gamble, based on his season last year, Fernandez brings too many question marks to an aging team that wants to win now.
With that said, if the team goes with 8 bullpen arms, maybe Fernandez does make it as the 8th guy.

 

[SFGRTB]

I think both Williamson and Slater are at a disadvantage due to the fact they both have options left. Parker and Hernandez, I think, have the inside track but both could lose their spots if they continue to perform poorly in spring. If Hernandez struggles, I see Blanco pushing him off the roster. If Parker goes, though, I think its only because Williamson makes the team. They'll want that 5th guy to be a power bat. The Giants' outfield is a bit more of a question mark than the infield so I believe they'll carry 5 outfielders (unless they decide to go with an 8 man bullpen).

I'm splitting it up between Blanco and Hernandez and Dugger for one job, and Mac and Parker and Slater for the other job. Seems like you are as well.

I know there's a risk of potentially losing Parker or Hernandez, giving them an edge, but I just don't think the Giants will actually end up losing them. The free agent market for outfielders is still very think. Jose Bautista, Jason Werth, Franklin Gutierrez, Seth Smith, Rajai Davis, Eric Young Jr., Melky Cabrera....

I just don't see it as a big problem, so even though the players with options are at a disadvantage, I think they are less-so than previous years, inclining me to believe they'll give the best players the jobs (expect perhaps Duggar so they can wait to start his clock).

 

[SFGRTB]

While Mac is having a stellar spring, I really don’t see him making the team. He has reasserted himself as a prospect, but he needs more ABs with his new swing. He will start in Sac Town, but will be up and starting before the end of the season.

And since Blanco, Duggar, Hernandez and (to a lesser extent) Slater are all the same type of player, I think Parker still holds thee inside track on the last OF job. Unless they only go with 4 OFers and go with d’Arnaud as a 3rd infielder instead.

Just as the days go on I see Pence more and more as a part-time guy, opening the door for Mac to get a good amount of AB's in LF right off the bat.

That would perhaps favor Parker, as a lefty platoon guy, but as I stated above I don't think the Giants will lose him and at some point you have to reward the young guys.

Still a ways to go though, and if Pence starts to look better, then I would probably prefer to keep Mac in AAA as well. And as you keep alluding to, it's frankly only a matter of "when" Pence goes down.

 

[SFGRTB]

I know you are high on Fernandez but I cannot imagine him making the team right now. He'll go down to the wire, and I think they'll try to work out a deal to send him to the minors, but he's too erratic in actual games. He has been knocked around pretty badly in 3 of his 4 appearances. Considering that Osich is a bit of a gamble, based on his season last year, Fernandez brings too many question marks to an aging team that wants to win now.
With that said, if the team goes with 8 bullpen arms, maybe Fernandez does make it as the 8th guy.

Yeah it's certainly a long shot, and the vibe from the beat writers isn't great either, but it would be a shame if the Giants lose this kid. Hopefully they can work something out.

 

[LHG]

Yeah it's certainly a long shot, and the vibe from the beat writers isn't great either, but it would be a shame if the Giants lose this kid. Hopefully they can work something out.

I wonder what the cost would be to get him from Colorado. I know, the Rockies left him available to the Rule 5, so they must have not been that high on him. But I'd think they would be more willing to gamble on him not being ready to spend a full year on an MLB roster than to lose him completely. What do you think would interest the Rockies to let him stay in the Giants' farm system?

 

[LHG]

I'm splitting it up between Blanco and Hernandez and Dugger for one job, and Mac and Parker and Slater for the other job. Seems like you are as well.

I know there's a risk of potentially losing Parker or Hernandez, giving them an edge, but I just don't think the Giants will actually end up losing them. The free agent market for outfielders is still very think. Jose Bautista, Jason Werth, Franklin Gutierrez, Seth Smith, Rajai Davis, Eric Young Jr., Melky Cabrera....

I just don't see it as a big problem, so even though the players with options are at a disadvantage, I think they are less-so than previous years, inclining me to believe they'll give the best players the jobs (expect perhaps Duggar so they can wait to start his clock).

Just as the days go on I see Pence more and more as a part-time guy, opening the door for Mac to get a good amount of AB's in LF right off the bat.

That would perhaps favor Parker, as a lefty platoon guy, but as I stated above I don't think the Giants will lose him and at some point you have to reward the young guys.

Still a ways to go though, and if Pence starts to look better, then I would probably prefer to keep Mac in AAA as well. And as you keep alluding to, it's frankly only a matter of "when" Pence goes down.

I do agree that the likelihood of Parker and/or Hernandez getting picked up elsewhere is much less likely than what it would have been in previous years. Some of the guys you cited have been signed (Rajai Davis and Eric Young, Jr) but there are still some names left. Of course, that doesn't mean no one would want to pick up a guy like Hernandez for a lot less than Bautista. The Marlins, for example, would probably be more interested in Hernandez.
I do believe, if I remember the rules, that since Hernandez has already been dfa'd by the Pirates, he could refuse the assignment and become a free agent. Parker wouldn't have that choice. So Hernandez may be in a better place than Parker, despite their awful spring numbers.
And that makes me wonder, in a battle like this, how much do the Giants really "invest" in spring numbers? With a free agent market like this, does that really sway much the Giants' decisions? They usually like to stick with their guys, even if they aren't producing. But they also have one of their guys in camp, in Gregor Blanco.
That leads me to thoughts about Pence. Its going to be hard for Bochy, I think, to see the writing on the wall about the amount of playing time. He'll give his veteran every chance to sink or swim. I think at-bats for Williamson or Parker or Slater (or whoever) would be slim for at least a month.
Now if Duggar does claim at least a platoon in center field right away, maybe Jackson steals some of Pence's ABs right away but that begs the question as to whether Jackson needs to be platooned or does he just take over in left field? Probably not, unless its Duggar and Blanco (or maybe Slater) who make the team. THere seems to be a lot of intrigue yet to play out this spring.
On an interesting note, I don't think anyone (except maybe Hector Sanchez, unless he is injured) has been reassigned from big league camp. Usually, the first set of cuts happen by now. However, this year, the Giants really limited the amount of guys invited as non-roster players and have just brought other players in on split-squad days. I wonder when the first round of cuts will happen.

 

[calsnowskier]

Do cuts really mean anything anyway? It seems guys who were “cut” still make the opening day roster every few years.