Rumblings of a Trey Lance trade?

[Dean_Youngblood]

Gonna be some desperate teams willing to spin the tires on a young QB.

Titans come to mind.

I mean, this entire thread exists because of the Titan's new GM and Lance's tweet after he was named, so yeah

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Anything is possible... I never would have expected JG to be on the 9ers roster this year. Neither did JG or the team for that matter. But life in the NFL moves at you fast. If a team offers something compelling, I could see the 9ers doing something. I just think the bar on return needs to be something better than a 2nd.

 

[ducky]

Maybe... but if this year has proven anything, having QB depth is a huge advantage. I'm not sure the measuring stick is based solely on "what's in our draft cupboard" as much as it's about how much depth do we have at each position. Having two QBs on the roster that have familiarity with the system while being on rookie deals has a ton of value on it's own.

Yeah but Purdy is proving something else with his success this year.....Jimmy G was never anything special in SF. He was just the guy taking the snaps.

Jimmy G will cost you less money than keeping Lance will. And it gains you probably around a 1st and a 3rd round pick in the upcoming draft (my guess...kind of depends on how early the 1st rounder is or isnt....and there will almost assuredly be 2024 picks in there as well).

Jimmy's bullshit last offseason combined with him getting hurt yet again this year and the fact that a 7th round pick just came in and is outperforming him is going to completely wipe away any chance of a GM looking at him and thinking let's make him a starter (but of course it only takes one dummy). He will likely be signing on to be a backup. And if that is the case SF would be a good option for him.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

Yeah but Purdy is proving something else with his success this year.....Jimmy G was never anything special in SF. He was just the guy taking the snaps.

Jimmy G will cost you less money than keeping Lance will. And it gains you probably around a 1st and a 3rd round pick (my guess...kind of depends on how early the 1st rounder is or isnt).

Jimmy's bullshit last offseason combined with him getting hurt yet again this year and the fact that a 7th round pick just came in and is outperforming him is going to completely wipe away any chance of a GM looking at him and thinking let's make him a starter (but of course it only takes one dummy). He will likely be signing on to be a backup. And if that is the case SF would be a good option for him.

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure you're interpreting the cap stuff correctly... Lance's base salary is something like $4M. The rest of his $10M hit is proration of his signing bonus. I think the 9ers take that $6M hit no matter what if they trade him. So you're really talking about $4M. No way JG signs for $4M. But beyond that, I just think JG's done in SF. He's a free agent and completely in control of his own destiny. There are a ton of QB-needy teams out there that will pay him better than the 9ers would, even if it's just a bridge role.

You can live with the Lance hit because of Purdy's contract, which is only $800K for 2023. Having two (potentially) capable QBs for a total cap hit of $11M is pretty friggin amazing.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I could be wrong, but I'm not sure you're interpreting the cap stuff correctly... Lance's base salary is something like $4M. The rest of his $10M hit is proration of his signing bonus. I think the 9ers take that $6M hit no matter what if they trade him. So you're really talking about $4M. No way JG signs for $4M. But beyond that, I just think JG's done in SF. He's a free agent and completely in control of his own destiny. There are a ton of QB-needy teams out there that will pay him better than the 9ers would, even if it's just a bridge role.

You can live with the Lance hit because of Purdy's contract, which is only $800K for 2023. Having two (potentially) capable QBs for a total cap hit of $11M is pretty friggin amazing.

If they keep Lance around. I am figuring they are giving up leverage on getting better trade value for him.
If they trade him this offseason. The new team has two years to figure out if he is the man. Instead of taking a leap of faith on a 1 year deal.
I guess it is just which direction they want to go. Getting some of their picks back or having an unproven back up.

 

[PDay8810]

If they keep Lance around. I am figuring they are giving up leverage on getting better trade value for him.
If they trade him this offseason. The new team has two years to figure out if he is the man. Instead of taking a leap of faith on a 1 year deal.
I guess it is just which direction they want to go. Getting some of their picks back or having an unproven back up.

Hell...they just want to win it all THIS season.
Unproven means short on opportunities.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

If they keep Lance around. I am figuring they are giving up leverage on getting better trade value for him.
If they trade him this offseason. The new team has two years to figure out if he is the man. Instead of taking a leap of faith on a 1 year deal.
I guess it is just which direction they want to go. Getting some of their picks back or having an unproven back up.

I just don't think the FO is looking at it that way considering the need for QB depth. Lance is a bit more than an unproven back up... he knows the system and has upside. I'm guessing that having two capable QBs with a combined $11M cap hit is more valuable than trade value to them. Totally could be wrong, but the 9ers FO doesn't seem to be too obsessed with draft/trade capital. Plus, they're likely to get another 3rd round pick once Demeco is a head coach.

Edit: especially when they'd most likely take a $6M cap hit if they trade Lance.

 

[fastforward]

God yes teams would be willing to guarantee him that. Lol. It's laughable to think he is even remotely close to being a negative value player.

Have you looked around the league at the QB situation?

Carson Wentz last offseason after busting completely in Indy and Phili the previous 2 years netted the Colts a couple of decent draft picks and Washington paid him $28M just for the chance to fix him.

And the league's QB situation just continues to look worse and worse as more guys like Rodgers and Brady ponder retirement, Ryan now more or less officially done and guys like Tannehill, Stafford and Cousins being very close to their ends too.

The 49ers will get way more than just a 1st round pick for Lance if they do decide to hand the job to Purdy and move on from him. Way more.

I wouldn't have signed Wentz to a $28M contract if he'd been available as a free agent. $14-16M was my free market estimation. I wouldn't have paid Ryan $24.7M either. The teams that did both regretted their decisions. The Mayfield saga was more indicative of GM QB valuations.

I have looked at the QB situation and there are going to be a lot of them available in the offseason. The best available QBs will command a good salary. The rest of them will push the market down. If Lance isn't projected to be the 2023 starter for the 49ers and teams are willing to trade in excess of a 1st round pick for him it would be ridiculous of the 49ers to keep him. A back-up player with 1st round pick trade value would be an egregious waste. At this point Lance hasn't proven himself to be a top 24 starter. Maybe he is, maybe he's a back-up, and maybe he's a complete bust. I don't see anyone giving up a high value pick for Lance when Darnold, Mayfield, and Mariota will be available on cheap contracts without trade compensation.

 

[Niner Outlaw]

Yeah but Purdy is proving something else with his success this year.....Jimmy G was never anything special in SF. He was just the guy taking the snaps.

Is this the "anyone can do it" argument? If so, disagree.

Eh, I'll agree that Purdy's play has hurt Jimmy's value a little, but the short supply of veteran QBs will help him.

Jimmy G will cost you less money than keeping Lance will. ...He will likely be signing on to be a backup.

I disagree. I'll be surprised if Jimmy isn't signed as a starter somewhere. There are too many QB-needy teams out there for Jimmy to sign on as a backup somewhere. NYJ, Raiders, Colts, Texans, Commies, Panthers, and Saints and maybe the Titans or Bucs. Sure, 2 or 3 of them end up with a highly-drafted rookie, one gets Carr and another gets Brady. The rest will be deciding between Jimmy, Mayfield, Darnold, Mariota, Dalton, Winston, etc. I think Jimmy comes out of that game of musical chairs as a starter somewhere.

I just don't think the FO is looking at it that way considering the need for QB depth. Lance is a bit more than an unproven back up... he knows the system and has upside. I'm guessing that having two capable QBs with a combined $11M cap hit is more valuable than trade value to them. Totally could be wrong, but the 9ers FO doesn't seem to be too obsessed with draft/trade capital. Plus, they're likely to get another 3rd round pick once Demeco is a head coach.

Edit: especially when they'd most likely take a $6M cap hit if they trade Lance.

IF Ryans gets a HC job somewhere this year, that extra 3rd rd pick from his signing wouldn't come until 2025 IIRC.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

IF Ryans gets a HC job somewhere this year, that extra 3rd rd pick from his signing wouldn't come until 2025 IIRC.

This is true...

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I have looked at the QB situation and there are going to be a lot of them available in the offseason. The best available QBs will command a good salary. The rest of them will push the market down. If Lance isn't projected to be the 2023 starter for the 49ers and teams are willing to trade in excess of a 1st round pick for him it would be ridiculous of the 49ers to keep him. A back-up player with 1st round pick trade value would be an egregious waste. At this point Lance hasn't proven himself to be a top 24 starter. Maybe he is, maybe he's a back-up, and maybe he's a complete bust. I don't see anyone giving up a high value pick for Lance when Darnold, Mayfield, and Mariota will be available on cheap contracts without trade compensation.

That's a good point. If someone offers more than a 1st rd pick for him, I think it would be hard for the Niners to say no. But which team would do something like that?

 

[fastforward]

That's a good point. If someone offers more than a 1st rd pick for him, I think it would be hard for the Niners to say no. But which team would do something like that?

I'd rather trade for Mac Jones than Lance and I wouldn't give up a 1st for Jones. I'm not a hater and i'm not saying Lance is worthless. I just have a hard time seeing any team giving up much, let alone a 1st round pick, for a question mark QB in what looks to be the most open QB market in NFL history. The NFL's QB trade history suggests 'Buyer Beware'.

...but in a wide open market just about anything could happen.

 

[Dean_Youngblood]

I'd rather trade for Mac Jones than Lance and I wouldn't give up a 1st for Jones. I'm not a hater and i'm not saying Lance is worthless. I just have a hard time seeing any team giving up much, let alone a 1st round pick, for a question mark QB in what looks to be the most open QB market in NFL history. The NFL's QB trade history suggests 'Buyer Beware'.

...but in a wide open market just about anything could happen.

That's kinda what I'm thinking... I just can't see a team offering up a 1st at this point. I mean maybe, but I'd more expect low-ball offers like a 3rd, perhaps a 2nd. In which case, there's no reason for the 9ers to deal him.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

I just don't think the FO is looking at it that way considering the need for QB depth. Lance is a bit more than an unproven back up... he knows the system and has upside. I'm guessing that having two capable QBs with a combined $11M cap hit is more valuable than trade value to them. Totally could be wrong, but the 9ers FO doesn't seem to be too obsessed with draft/trade capital. Plus, they're likely to get another 3rd round pick once Demeco is a head coach.

Edit: especially when they'd most likely take a $6M cap hit if they trade Lance.

I agree. I have no clue how their FO is thinking. That is why it is an interesting conversation.
As far as cap hits.
Thought if a rookie contract is traded. It all goes to the new team? (whatever is left) Since Rookie deals are fully guaranteed.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

That's a good point. If someone offers more than a 1st rd pick for him, I think it would be hard for the Niners to say no. But which team would do something like that?

The Colts

 

[Niner Outlaw]

I agree. I have no clue how their FO is thinking. That is why it is an interesting conversation.
As far as cap hits.
Thought if a rookie contract is traded. It all goes to the new team? (whatever is left) Since Rookie deals are fully guaranteed.

Ok, I'm not a cap expert, but this is my understanding of things. The contract IS fully guaranteed, but if Lance were traded, the Niners would incur the accelerated bonus money still on the books from Lance's signing bonus. I'm using Spotrac's contract numbers, so this is my understanding from those numbers.

Lance got a signing bonus of 22M. So, each of the 4 years of his deal has a share of that money on the books = 5.5 per year. Lance has used 2 years of that deal, so there is a total of 11M still allocated to the 2 future years. IF Lance is traded in the 2023 league year, that 11M cap hit is accelerated into the 2023 cap.

So, If lance were traded this offseason, the Niners would incur an 11M cap charge from the accelerated bonus money left on his contract and they would save the 3.7M from his 2023 salary. 11M - 3.7 = a net cap loss of about 7.3M. So, the Niners would actually lose 7.3M in 2023 cap space by trading him. If those numbers are right, there is just about no way the Niners move him this offseason b/c the Niners will need all the cap space they can get. However, cap-wise they would basically break even if he were traded in 2024, so a trade would make more financial sense then.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

However, cap-wise they would basically break even if he were traded in 2024, so a trade would make more financial sense then.

Could do post June trade to split the cost of the cap hit.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Ok, I'm not a cap expert, but this is my understanding of things. The contract IS fully guaranteed, but if Lance were traded, the Niners would incur the accelerated bonus money still on the books from Lance's signing bonus. I'm using Spotrac's contract numbers, so this is my understanding from those numbers.

Lance got a signing bonus of 22M. So, each of the 4 years of his deal has a share of that money on the books = 5.5 per year. Lance has used 2 years of that deal, so there is a total of 11M still allocated to the 2 future years. IF Lance is traded in the 2023 league year, that 11M cap hit is accelerated into the 2023 cap.

So, If lance were traded this offseason, the Niners would incur an 11M cap charge from the accelerated bonus money left on his contract and they would save the 3.7M from his 2023 salary. 11M - 3.7 = a net cap loss of about 7.3M. So, the Niners would actually lose 7.3M in 2023 cap space by trading him. If those numbers are right, there is just about no way the Niners move him this offseason b/c the Niners will need all the cap space they can get. However, cap-wise they would basically break even if he were traded in 2024, so a trade would make more financial sense then.

Honestly dont know, but it seems right.
Normal contracts the Signing bonus is on the original team (unless otherwise stated)

Not many rookie deals are traded so I wouldnt know where to go look.

 

[Anointed One]

Purdy already ruined my hope... I was hoping T. Lance would've been the 49ers starting QB next year so my Hawks could have a shot...

 

[fastforward]

I agree. I have no clue how their FO is thinking. That is why it is an interesting conversation.
As far as cap hits.
Thought if a rookie contract is traded. It all goes to the new team? (whatever is left) Since Rookie deals are fully guaranteed.

Ok, I'm not a cap expert, but this is my understanding of things. The contract IS fully guaranteed, but if Lance were traded, the Niners would incur the accelerated bonus money still on the books from Lance's signing bonus. I'm using Spotrac's contract numbers, so this is my understanding from those numbers.

Lance got a signing bonus of 22M. So, each of the 4 years of his deal has a share of that money on the books = 5.5 per year. Lance has used 2 years of that deal, so there is a total of 11M still allocated to the 2 future years. IF Lance is traded in the 2023 league year, that 11M cap hit is accelerated into the 2023 cap.

So, If lance were traded this offseason, the Niners would incur an 11M cap charge from the accelerated bonus money left on his contract and they would save the 3.7M from his 2023 salary. 11M - 3.7 = a net cap loss of about 7.3M. So, the Niners would actually lose 7.3M in 2023 cap space by trading him. If those numbers are right, there is just about no way the Niners move him this offseason b/c the Niners will need all the cap space they can get. However, cap-wise they would basically break even if he were traded in 2024, so a trade would make more financial sense then.

Trades are for a player's remaining contract rather than the player. Everything that has been paid to the player by the 'departure' team prior to the trade must be cap accounted for by the 'departure' team. All outstanding cap hits accelerate into the earliest possible cap year. However, the cap is made up of 2 different components. The 1st component runs in conjunction with the NFL year, (normally March to March). All current year salary, roster bonuses, LTBE bonuses, and performance bonuses earned but not accounted for in the previous season are in this component. The 2nd component is for pro-rata signing bonuses and NLTBE performance bonuses. The 2nd component runs from Post June 1 of 1 year through to 'non Post June 1' of the following year.

Lance has previously been paid $11.084M by the 49ers that has not yet been accounted for. $5.541M of that figure is going to be accounted for in the Post June 1 2022 through to 'non Post June 1' 2023 cap component in the 2023 cap year. This is the earliest possible 2nd component cap year anyway so there is no possible acceleration. The remaining money is scheduled to be accounted for in the 2024. If Lance was to leave the 49ers before Post June 1 of 2023 this $5.541M would accelerate from the 2024 cap into the 2023 cap. It's not a loss of cash or cap space, it's just an earlier accounting period. Less cap space in the 1st year and more in the 2nd.

In a trade the 'new arrival' team is cap responsible only for money it pays to the player. Thus it isn't responsible for any dead money paid by the 'departure' team. Any team trading for Lance would now be responsible for the $9.07M that he is fully guaranteed over the next 2 seasons.

If Lance was traded prior to Post June 1 of 2023 the 49ers cap figure would increase by $5.541M for the accelerated dead money and decrease by $3.76M as the 'new arrival' team took responsibility for the 2023 salary. Apologies for being long-winded but hopefully this clears up how things work. (For the record Post June 1 actually occurs in May which is why i've referenced non Post June 1).