Series Thread: Rangers Host the Twins For Four Games August 15-18

[saddles]

Bradford and Heaney are scheduled for tonight and tomorrow night. Saturday would be Mahle's turn, but the Rangers may bring Eovaldi back Saturday and then start Mahle Sunday. There are no scheduled starters for those last two games, as of now.

The offense came to life yesterday, albeit not until after the 5th inning. They have had a lot of trouble scoring in the first 5 innings over the last 8 games or so.

The Rangers start this series with the 7th worst record in MLB, but with the 5th best chance to win the draft lottery since the White Sox and A's are ineligible. The Rangers also start the series 9.5 games back in the division.

Jared Sandler notes that "since getting activated off of the IL on May 28, Wyatt Langford is tied with Corey Seager for the team lead in RBI with 39.

 

[saddles]

Sportrac is estimating the Rangers to have $93 million AAV to spend before being subject to the competitive balance tax next year. Free agents that are signed, young pre-arbitration players, and arbitration eligible players all have to fit within that figure to avoid the luxury tax. It sounds like Ray Davis does not want to pay that tax again next year

The $143 million they already have tied up includes Eovaldi's $20 million as well as us picking up options on Robertson and Chafin. It also includes deGrom, Seager, Semien, Mahle, Gray, and Garcia, who are all under contract for 2025.

If Eovaldi doesn't get to exercise his option, or decides not to, and if Chafin's option isn't picked up, that adds $26.5 million more to spend. That would bring the total to spend up to $119.5 million AAV. Trading Garcia and/or Lowe could help even more.

If we had $115 million AAV to spend how much would you spend in which area? I gave that figure to save some room for mid-season additions.

Good relievers might cost in the $10 million AAV range. A good starting pitcher might cost $15-18 million. Great ones, might go up to $30-40 million AAV. Same thing for a good or great position player. You might get some decent guys in the $5-10 million AAV range.

How would you spend the money and would you do anything that might add some more salary space?

 

[saddles]

From Evan Grant's mailbag:

Will the front office be willing to spend money this offseason to shore up positions of need? (Mainly bullpen/OF) #EvanHelpUs
— DB4L (@MrSatanHercule) August 14, 2024

ME: By “front office,” you mean “ownership,” correct? For the baseball operations folks, it’s never a question of willingness, but rather available funds. They’ve had a lot in that regard the last two years, but I do not think Ray Davis will pay the CBT tax for a third straight year. As a third-time payor, it would mean a 50% tax on every dollar over $241 million in CBT payroll costs. And if you get below the CBT for a year, then your status resets. If the Rangers, for example, get below the threshold for 2025, they return to first-time payor status if they go over the threshold in 2026. That drops the tax bracket from 50% for overage to 20%.

So, my guess is the top tier is going to be somewhere around $235 million (which includes benefits) to afford them some in-season flexibility.

 

[saddles]

Leiter, Rocker, and Tiger all pitch tonight. Add Bradford starting for the Rangers tonight to that list, and there is a lot of potential future starting pitching getting showcased tonight.

 

[saddles]

2025 Arbitration Eligible Rangers

Lowe
Dunning
Heim
Sborz
Taveras

I think this list is accurate.

 

[saddles]

Josh Smith went through a stretch earlier this month that saw him go 1 for 21. In previous seasons that would have gotten him benched for a few weeks. This year he stayed in the lineup and followed that up with a current stretch of 8 for 23.

That is the problem young players like him, Duran, Foscue and Huff have. They are not allowed to work through slumps. The more veteran players are seldom ever benched for even a couple of games when they go through much worse stretches. Not playing for long periods only compounds the problems the young guys might have.

Sometimes there are exceptions when there has been an organizational decision that a young guy has a spot in the lineup for the long haul. Langford is such a player.

 

[scotsman#1948]

Josh Smith went through a stretch earlier this month that saw him go 1 for 21. In previous seasons that would have gotten him benched for a few weeks. This year he stayed in the lineup and followed that up with a current stretch of 8 for 23.

That is the problem young players like him, Duran, Foscue and Huff have. They are not allowed to work through slumps. The more veteran players are seldom ever benched for even a couple of games when they go through much worse stretches. Not playing for long periods only compounds the problems the young guys might have.

Sometimes there are exceptions when there has been an organizational decision that a young guy has a spot in the lineup for the long haul. Langford is such a player.

and Smith too. maybe they should bench all the vets until they start hitting

 

[saddles]

My 10 all-time favorite Rangers starting pitchers(in no particular order)

Bert Blylevin
Fergie Jenkins
Gaylord Perry
Jose Guzman
Jon Matlack
Kenny Rogers
Nolan Ryan
Danny Darwin
Derek Holland
Bobby Witt

 

[scotsman#1948]

and Smith too. maybe they should bench all the vets until they start hitting

and we can't forget that Bochy and the Rangers also did the same with Evan Carter until his back gave out.

 

[saddles]

and we can't forget that Bochy and the Rangers also did the same with Evan Carter until his back gave out.

Yep. Carter forced his way to stay on the field last year by never being in a slump. Once he was a postseason hero he gained a lot more respect than most young players ever get in their first year or so.

A lot of players will never start their career the way Carter did, though. Most get acclimated over their first several hundred at bats as long as those at bats are fairly consistent.

That is the same way Smith did it this year. He went a long time hitting well when he was desperately needed. It was almost mid-May before he even went 2 starts in a row without getting a hit. If he had slumped for three games in April, he might not have ever gotten the chance to prove what he has proven this year.

 

[scotsman#1948]

Yep. Carter forced his way to stay on the field last year by never being in a slump. Once he was a postseason hero he gained a lot more respect than most young players ever get in their first year or so.

A lot of players will never start their career the way Carter did, though. Most get acclimated over their first several hundred at bats as long as those at bats are fairly consistent.

That is the same way Smith did it this year. He went a long time hitting well when he was desperately needed. It was almost mid-May before he even went 2 starts in a row without getting a hit. If he had slumped for three games in April, he might not have ever gotten the chance to prove what he has proven this year.

and i was speaking of this season where they stayed with him until the team decided in accordance with the team doctor's recommendation to put him on the IL

 

[scotsman#1948]

and i was speaking of this season where they stayed with him until the team decided in accordance with the team doctor's recommendation to put him on the IL

that's Smith, Langford and Carter they stuck with through their slumps

 

[saddles]

that's Smith, Langford and Carter they stuck with through their slumps

Never mind

 

[scotsman#1948]

Never mind

typical from you.

 

[saddles]

From the Bleacher Report's mock draft for 2025:

6. Texas Rangers: RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara

Bremner got knocked around to the tune of a 5.37 ERA during his freshman season, but it was backed by a strong 80-to-17 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 55.1 innings.

The 6'2", 190-pound right-hander took a huge step forward this past spring, moving into the rotation full-time and going 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 88.2 innings.

Bremner's lively upper 90s fastball is backed by a strong changeup/slider combination, and he checks all the boxes to be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

 

[fanman8825]

My 10 all-time favorite Rangers starting pitchers(in no particular order)

Bert Blylevin
Fergie Jenkins
Gaylord Perry
Jose Guzman
Jon Matlack
Kenny Rogers
Nolan Ryan
Danny Darwin
Derek Holland
Bobby Witt

Fergie is my number 1. Can't forget that 25-12 season

 

[Duane1952]

2025 Arbitration Eligible Rangers

Lowe
Dunning
Heim
Sborz
Taveras

I think this list is accurate.

Only interested in keeping Dunning and Sborz.

 

[saddles]

The Angels DFA our old friend, Willie Calhoun.

 

[armadillooutlaw]

Sportrac is estimating the Rangers to have $93 million AAV to spend before being subject to the competitive balance tax next year. Free agents that are signed, young pre-arbitration players, and arbitration eligible players all have to fit within that figure to avoid the luxury tax. It sounds like Ray Davis does not want to pay that tax again next year

The $143 million they already have tied up includes Eovaldi's $20 million as well as us picking up options on Robertson and Chafin. It also includes deGrom, Seager, Semien, Mahle, Gray, and Garcia, who are all under contract for 2025.

If Eovaldi doesn't get to exercise his option, or decides not to, and if Chafin's option isn't picked up, that adds $26.5 million more to spend. That would bring the total to spend up to $119.5 million AAV. Trading Garcia and/or Lowe could help even more.

If we had $115 million AAV to spend how much would you spend in which area? I gave that figure to save some room for mid-season additions.

Good relievers might cost in the $10 million AAV range. A good starting pitcher might cost $15-18 million. Great ones, might go up to $30-40 million AAV. Same thing for a good or great position player. You might get some decent guys in the $5-10 million AAV range.

How would you spend the money and would you do anything that might add some more salary space?

I might spend around 6-12 million tops on a guy who had the flexibility to work as a multi-inning reliever as well as spot start if there was a run of injuriesto the starting rotation again. Think a Nick Martinez or another Urena. Otherwise, I'd make a big play at upgrading 1B and look for an offensive upgrade at C and RF. Would prefer to do it by trade, but might have to spend it in free agency. The rest goes towards Bullpen. I would LOVE to get Vladdy Jr. to upgrade over Lowe. Not sure how realistic that is.

 

[armadillooutlaw]

2025 Arbitration Eligible Rangers

Lowe
Dunning
Heim
Sborz
Taveras

I think this list is accurate.

Keep Dunning, Heim (top notch backup catcher) and Sborz. Trade Lowe, and either trade or cut Taveras, since he may not have much trade value left. Either way, he's got to go.