Post Your Top 3 AL/NL MVP/CYA - End of August

[Darkstone42]

NL

MVP
1. Harper
2. Votto
3. McCutchen

Weird, but the clear three best players in the NL this season are all on teams who are going to miss the playoffs. Goldschmidt is third on this list, but I slid McCutchen in just a bit ahead of him because the game between their overall contributions is small enough to give McCutchen the nod for getting to the postseason.

But Harper and Votto are both having historically amazing seasons. That has to be acknowledged, I think.

Cy Young
1. Kershaw
2. Greinke
3. Arrieta

Kershaw is the best pitcher in the baseball, and while he started a little slow (mostly because of an unsustainably inflated HR/FB%), he's put together a run of dominance which, while Grienke has done about the same, is too much for me to overcome their histories. Arrieta has also been excellent, just not quite as excellent as the other two.

Also, there's a decent chance Kershaw notches 300 Ks this year.

AL

MVP
1. Donaldson
2. Trout
3. Machado

They're the three most talented and most complete players in the AL, and they're having the three best seasons in the AL. Donaldson and Trout have been much better than Machado (no fault of Machado's), but Donaldson has been a bit better than Trout.

Cy Young
1. Keuchel
2. Sale
3. Price

There is a really good chance Sale jumps Keuchel for me soon. The ERA is a little higher, but the dominance has been impressive. And Sale, like Kershaw, has a shot at 300 Ks.

 

[molsaniceman]

NL MVP

Harper
Goldy
Rizzo

NL CY

Greinke
Arrieta
Kershaw

AL MVP

Donaldson
Trout
Cruz

AL CY

Keuchel
Gray
Price

 

[ericd7633]

This is just how absurd it is thinking Rizzo should be MVP over Harper:

Harper has an OPS+ of 201
Rizzo has an OPS+ of 151

This would be like me saying Marlon Byrd should be MVP over Rizzo, who has an OPS+ of 101.

Yes, the difference between Byrd's season and Rizzo's season is the same between Rizzo and Harper's.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

@rmilia1

1) At what point of the conversation did I bring up salaries?

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Hey Slink Cubs got a QUALITY start from their best pitcher ( per your argument ) Jon Lester today.

Please point out what you read from me that led you to believe that I think Lester is the Cubs' best pitcher. Once you do that, I'll explain what it really meant. Don't worry, I'll use small words and bullet points.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I don't know if you know this, but there is a context driven stat called "Win Probability Added" that attempts to cover exactly what you're talking about. It examines what impact every play had on the team's probability of winning the game. It's available from 1940 to the present, so there won't even be any 400 inning seasons in there screwing things up.

Only 4 of the top 20 pitching seasons are relievers, and really none of those 4 seasons bear any resemblance to how the modern "closer" is used, as all 4 pitched 119+ innings (1984 Willie Hernandez, 1973 John Hiller, 1980 Doug Corbett and 1965 Stu Miller are the seasons). The highest rated season by a closer being used like a present day closer is 1996 Troy Percival, whose season ranks 27th overall.

If I'm correct in assuming that you're talking about determining a closer's value to his team relative to a starters, I don't think WPA does that.

For example, Mark Melancon is arguably the most dominant closer so far this season. He's pitched 64.2 INN in 66 games with an ERA of 2.09 and has converted 44 of 46 save attempts.

His teammate, Gerrit Cole, has pitched 180.2 INN in 28 starts with a 2.54 ERA.

Melancon's 2015 WPA is 4.52 compared to Cole's 1.63, but I'm pretty sure you'd agree that Cole has been significantly more valuable to the Pirates than Melancon has.

WPA attempts to put a number on the amount of plays a player is involved in that significantly impact the probability of winning a game. So, if Menancon comes out to close the 9th in a 3-2 game with runners on and no outs, his WPA with each batter will be jacked up compared to Cole's WPA with each batter if he pitched through the 7th with only giving up a run.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

This is just how absurd it is thinking Rizzo should be MVP over Harper:

Harper has an OPS+ of 201
Rizzo has an OPS+ of 151

This would be like me saying Marlon Byrd should be MVP over Rizzo, who has an OPS+ of 101.

Yes, the difference between Byrd's season and Rizzo's season is the same between Rizzo and Harper's.

Hahaha. That's a interesting perspective and a good point.

Expanding on it, measured by OPS, Rizzo is statistically closer to Nick Markakis than he is Bryce Harper.

 

[DragonfromTO]

If I'm correct in assuming that you're talking about determining a closer's value to his team relative to a starters, I don't think WPA does that.

For example, Mark Melancon is arguably the most dominant closer so far this season. He's pitched 64.2 INN in 66 games with an ERA of 2.09 and has converted 44 of 46 save attempts.

His teammate, Gerrit Cole, has pitched 180.2 INN in 28 starts with a 2.54 ERA.

Melancon's 2015 WPA is 4.52 compared to Cole's 1.63, but I'm pretty sure you'd agree that Cole has been significantly more valuable to the Pirates than Melancon has.

WPA attempts to put a number on the amount of plays a player is involved in that significantly impact the probability of winning a game. So, if Menancon comes out to close the 9th in a 3-2 game with runners on and no outs, his WPA with each batter will be jacked up compared to Cole's WPA with each batter if he pitched through the 7th with only giving up a run.

It is an attempt to account for leverage and determine how a player's individual efforts specifically impacted his team's chances of "winning", which I believe is exactly the argument that he is trying to make in favour of closers (that they pitch fewer innings, but that their efforts have a greater impact on team winning because of when and in what situations those innings happen).

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

It is an attempt to account for leverage and determine how individual efforts impacted "winning", which I believe is the argument that he is trying to make in favour of closers (that they pitch fewer innings, but that their efforts have a greater impact on team winning because of when and in what situations those innings happen).

I see what you're saying. It's pretty murky, I feel. Based on this description, and Melancon's & Cole's WPAs, I think it could be interpreted that Melancon has had more impact on the Pirates record than Cole has, which is not the case; he's just been in more high-leverage situations than Cole has.

 

[DragonfromTO]

If I'm correct in assuming that you're talking about determining a closer's value to his team relative to a starters, I don't think WPA does that.

For example, Mark Melancon is arguably the most dominant closer so far this season. He's pitched 64.2 INN in 66 games with an ERA of 2.09 and has converted 44 of 46 save attempts.

His teammate, Gerrit Cole, has pitched 180.2 INN in 28 starts with a 2.54 ERA.

Melancon's 2015 WPA is 4.52 compared to Cole's 1.63, but I'm pretty sure you'd agree that Cole has been significantly more valuable to the Pirates than Melancon has.

WPA attempts to put a number on the amount of plays a player is involved in that significantly impact the probability of winning a game. So, if Menancon comes out to close the 9th in a 3-2 game with runners on and no outs, his WPA with each batter will be jacked up compared to Cole's WPA with each batter if he pitched through the 7th with only giving up a run.

Basically I agree with you that WPA is not a great way to evaluate/compare the contributions of starters and relievers, but what I'm saying is that even if it was a good way (the argument that he's basically making) it still doesn't have relievers/closers coming out on top.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Basically I agree with you that WPA is not a great way to evaluate/compare starters and relievers, what I'm saying is that even if it is a good way (the argument that he's basically making) it still doesn't lead to relievers/closers coming out on top.

Yeah, I hear you, and I like that you added WPA to the discussion. I was aware of it, but I really did some research on it after you brought it up and I have a much clearer understanding of it now, so I thank you for that.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Please point out what you read from me that led you to believe that I think Lester is the Cubs' best pitcher. Once you do that, I'll explain what it really meant. Don't worry, I'll use small words and bullet points.

@rmilia1

 

[rmilia1]

@rmilia1

Sorry Slink been tied up. I was just referencing your opinion that money equates to value. Since Lester is the Cubs highest paid pitcher he clearly is their most valuable pitcher correct??

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Sorry Slink been tied up. I was just referencing your opinion that money equates to value. Since Lester is the Cubs highest paid pitcher he clearly is their most valuable pitcher correct??

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I was just referencing your opinion that money equates to value.

I realize that you lack the capacity for abstract thought, and I would like to help you.

Please point out the part where you think I said that money equates to value and I will spend as much time as I can to help you understand what the words I wrote actually mean.

 

[thedddd]

Even though I doubt he will win McCutchen is coming up clutch again tonight when it matters.

 

[Villain]

@rmilia1

Didnt say relievers, I said dominant closer. Dominant as in just that. A guy like that ahs far more effect on a teams season than a starting pitcher ever can if only because they dont play in enough games. We already had this talk though, you disagree. It is cool.

That is not an opinion, that is an objective statement. Cause and effect can be measured. There's over a hundred years of baseball statistics and records that can be used to back up your statement.

I'd love to see you try.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

@rmilia1

1) At what point of the conversation did I bring up salaries?

 

[rmilia1]

@rmilia1

LOL, I have no clue and too busy to look. My fucking GM just got canned and its a shiot show here. Just tell me what youre trying to say please and thank you

 

[Villain]

LOL, I have no clue and too busy to look. My fucking GM just got canned and its a shiot show here. Just tell me what youre trying to say please and thank you