PFF on the Niners-Bengals, Smith

[Crimsoncrew]

So:

EPA: Expected points added (could be positive or negative) that occur as a result of an action play.

Pass EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added by the QB through pass attempts.

Run EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added by the QB through scrambles, designed rushes and fumbles/fumble returns on running plays.

Sack EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added by the QB through sacks and fumbles/fumble returns on passing plays.

Penalty EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added by the QB on penalties.

Total EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added by the QB.

Action Plays: Plays on which quarterback has a non-zero expected points contribution. Includes most plays that are not handoffs.

Clutch Wt Avg: Average clutch weight on QB action plays. Smaller than 1 means QB was in relatively fewer clutch situations; greater than 1 means he was in more.

Total QBR: Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.

Looking at these scales in a quick glance, I'm not sure that using the QBR is the best method to calculate how well Smith plays under the blitz.

Can we get a comparison with other QBs?

I think most of the ESPN bloggers do a weekly post on it, but I don't know where to find a collection of info over the course of the season or in terms of individual games.

It probably isn't the "best" method to calculate how well Smith plays under the blitz, but it is a method that takes sacks into account. As such, it's better than a pure passer rating. There's never going to be a perfect stat system for football. There's too much going on to account for everything and apportion responsibility in a fair and objective manner.

 

[Z-Comeback]

In the Bengals game, the sideline pass to Davis that set up first and goal in the 3rd quarter was against the blitz.
The TE screen that went for big yardage was against the blitz.
And the 3rd down slant to Crabtree that he dropped was also against the blitz.

For the most part in that game, Smith played well when the Bengals rushed more than 4.
The majority of his bad decisions/passes were when the Bengals only sent 4. Some of these were what I thought were "early" checkdowns, and others were protection breakdowns where Smith made some elusive moves but failed to finish the play; bounced passes.

 

[clyde_carbon]

Explaining the statistics behind the Total Quarterback Rating - ESPN

It says nothing about factoring in YPA, only YACs.

It's interesting to note that the more our receivers get YACs, the worse Smith's QBR will be.

 

[clyde_carbon]

I think most of the ESPN bloggers do a weekly post on it, but I don't know where to find a collection of info over the course of the season or in terms of individual games.

It probably isn't the "best" method to calculate how well Smith plays under the blitz, but it is a method that takes sacks into account. As such, it's better than a pure passer rating. There's never going to be a perfect stat system for football. There's too much going on to account for everything and apportion responsibility in a fair and objective manner.

Agreed.

NFL - Week 3 Total QBR Season Leaders - ESPN

 

[Z-Comeback]

It probably isn't the "best" method to calculate how well Smith plays under the blitz, but it is a method that takes sacks into account. As such, it's better than a pure passer rating. There's never going to be a perfect stat system for football. There's too much going on to account for everything and apportion responsibility in a fair and objective manner.

In the Bengals game, the sideline pass to Davis that set up first and goal in the 3rd quarter was against the blitz.
The TE screen that went for big yardage was against the blitz.
And the 3rd down slant to Crabtree that he dropped was also against the blitz.

For the most part in that game, Smith played well when the Bengals rushed more than 4.
The majority of his bad decisions/passes were when the Bengals only sent 4. Some of these were what I thought were "early" checkdowns, and others were protection breakdowns where Smith made some elusive moves but failed to finish the play; bounced passes.

Watch the videos that were posted of the game for both halves. Pay attention to when the Bengals blitz and when they don't. You'll get a good idea of how well/poorly Smith played. Screw all these ratings!

 

[MW49ers5]

Watch the videos that were posted of the game for both halves. Pay attention to when the Bengals blitz and when they don't. You'll get a good idea of how well/poorly Smith played. Screw all these ratings!

Precisely, Z - Well Said!!

Stats definitely have their place in discussions, debates and even as support for arguments; however, sports statistics (especially football statistics) are very unreliable and difficult to understand beneath the surface.

I think too often statistics are used as a crutch to compensate for a general lack of understanding the game itself or they are used incorrectly altogether.

 

[MW49ers5]

I think most of the ESPN bloggers do a weekly post on it, but I don't know where to find a collection of info over the course of the season or in terms of individual games.

It probably isn't the "best" method to calculate how well Smith plays under the blitz, but it is a method that takes sacks into account. As such, it's better than a pure passer rating. There's never going to be a perfect stat system for football. There's too much going on to account for everything and apportion responsibility in a fair and objective manner.

Meaningful & Accurate - Well Said!

 

[Z-Comeback]

Precisely, Z - Well Said!!

Stats definitely have their place in discussions, debates and even as support for arguments; however, sports statistics (especially football statistics) are very unreliable and difficult to understand beneath the surface.

I think too often statistics are used as a crutch to compensate for a general lack of understanding the game itself or they are used incorrectly altogether.

I agree. For the record, I think Smith played a pretty solid game against the Bengals. There were about 3 or 4 plays that I think he should have executed better. Though it is a small sample size (3 games into the season) he does look pretty damn good against blitzes so far and he is not turning it over. He's playing the best football in his albeit "underwhelming" career but has not been given the green light to open it up down the field yet. Only time will tell whether that's because Harbaugh doesn't have faith in him.

 

[MW49ers5]

I agree. For the record, I think Smith played a pretty solid game against the Bengals. There were about 3 or 4 plays that I think he should have executed better. Though it is a small sample size (3 games into the season) he does look pretty damn good against blitzes so far and he is not turning it over. He's playing the best football in his albeit "underwhelming" career but has not been given the green light to open it up down the field yet. Only time will tell whether that's because Harbaugh doesn't have faith in him.

I have to disagree on the blitzes. Of course, the ones he has been successful on have been stellar, but those he has missed have cost us. Obviously, not too much as we are 2-1, but IMO, there is plenty of room for improvement on blitzes.

As for trusting Smith to open up the offense, thus far the largest deficit we have had to overcome is 3 points, it will be interesting to see what Harbaugh does when the deficit reaches 10, 14, etc.

 

[Z-Comeback]

I have to disagree on the blitzes. Of course, the ones he has been successful on have been stellar, but those he has missed have cost us. Obviously, not too much as we are 2-1, but IMO, there is plenty of room for improvement on blitzes.

As for trusting Smith to open up the offense, thus far the largest deficit we have had to overcome is 3 points, it will be interesting to see what Harbaugh does when the deficit reaches 10, 14, etc.

Could happen this Sunday

 

[MW49ers5]

Could happen this Sunday

I 100% agree!

 

[deep9er]

I agree. For the record, I think Smith played a pretty solid game against the Bengals. There were about 3 or 4 plays that I think he should have executed better. Though it is a small sample size (3 games into the season) he does look pretty damn good against blitzes so far and he is not turning it over. He's playing the best football in his albeit "underwhelming" career but has not been given the green light to open it up down the field yet. Only time will tell whether that's because Harbaugh doesn't have faith in him.

after three games don't think this is it? now that Alex got out of the gate pretty well (for him), his confidence must be good? as such, Harbaugh's confidence in Alex should be good too?

i'd guess Harbaugh would LIKE to add more exciting passes Sunday, but the O-line.................. he has to be careful?

 

[Z-Comeback]

after three games don't think this is it? now that Alex got out of the gate pretty well (for him), his confidence must be good? as such, Harbaugh's confidence in Alex should be good too?

i'd guess Harbaugh would LIKE to add more exciting passes Sunday, but the O-line.................. he has to be careful?

Harbaugh's faith in the O-Line is a whole 'nother story lol
but I think, as the case was with the first few weeks, that we'll continue to see some new things from the offense.

I'm excited for Sunday's game. Measuring stick.