Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread

[seahawksfan234]

Figured with the season winding down and the Mariners playoff chances being quite statistically improbable, now might be a good time to launch this thread.

Given the trades made this year and the recent acquisitions of Mike Leake and Yonder Alonso, I think it's safe to say that the Mariners plan on making "win now" moves this offseason.

Here is the current state of the roster going into free agency. Any positions that are marked vacant are spots that the Mariner incumbent is either a free agent, or it's a spot that I believe will either be upgraded or competed for in Spring Training.

STARTING PITCHERS:
1. Vacant
2. James Paxton (LHP)
3. Mike Leake (RHP)
4. Felix Hernandez (RHP)
5. Vacant

Comments: Really you can make this list in any order you want. I'd put Paxton at #1, but with his injury concerns that is kind of hard to do. I'd like to see 2 big name starters added here through free agency, but realistically I think we will probably get one big name added while Erasmo Ramirez, Ariel Miranda and Marco Gonzales compete for the #5 spot. I know we all would like to see the Mariners sign the two best starting pitchers on the market, but that's probably pretty unrealistic.

Ramirez has put up pretty respectable numbers in his 9 starts with the Mariners putting up a 4.22 ERA. With Felix and Paxton both having a number of injuries the past few years, I wouldn't be surprised if Ramirez starts at least 10 games for us next year even if he isn't in the rotation.

Gallardo and Iwakuma are the obvious bigger departures here.

BULLPEN:
1. Edwin Diaz (RHP)
2. Nick Vincent (RHP)
3. James Pazos (LHP)
4. David Phelps (RHP)
5. Tony Zych (RHP)
6. Emilio Pagan (RHP)
7. Marc Rzepcyzynski (LHP)

Comments: Could see Erasmo Ramirez or Marco Gonzales taking on long relief roles here. Dipoto has done a lot of adjustments with the bullpen throughout the season, by calling guys up and sending guys down. Mariners do have a lot of solid bullpen arms right now. This could change a lot considering the organizational depth here. I don't really anticipate that the Mariners will aggressively pursue any bullpen arms. I imagine the bullpen will look very similar next year.

CATCHER:
1. Mike Zunino (R)
2. Vacant

Comments: Zunino is having a career year and putting together a pretty good season. I'm somewhat comfortable with him going into next year as the starter. My bigger concern is that I'm not sure if Zunino has finally put it all together or is just on a nice little streak and will regress back to his Mendoza-line form. I would definitely look at the catcher market in free agency for a solid backup here in case Zunino doesn't continue performing like this. If not, in-house option Mike Marjama could get the role.

INFIELD:
1B: Vacant
2B: Robinson Cano (L)
SS: Jean Segura (R)
3B: Kyle Seager (L)
BENCH/UTIL: Taylor Motter (R)
BENCH/UTIL: Vacant

Comments: 1B should be an interesting spot for the Mariners this offseason. Both Danny Valencia and Yonder Alonso are free agents after the season is over. Mariners might look to upgrade here and add a full-time starter instead of platooning. Through 150 games this season Mariners 1B have combined for 16 HRs, 72 RBI along with a .244/.305/.380 triple slash line. The offensive production from first has been one of the worst on the team. Mariners could retain both Alonso and Valencia or attempt something new.

OUTFIELD:
LF: Ben Gamel (L)
RF: Mitch Haniger (R)
CF: Vacant
Bench: Guillermo Heredia (R)
DH: Nelson Cruz (R)

Comments: Left Centerfield as vacant due to Jarrod Dyson's impending free agency. He is a guy the Mariners might look at giving a contract extension to. Dyson is a guy I like a lot. Dyson's numbers at the plate were not overwhelming, but he played great defense for the Mariners and was a consistent threat with his legs whenever he was on base. Over Dyson's last 150 games going back to last year he has stolen 45 bases on 55 attempts. If the Mariners decide not to add a starter at CF, Heredia would be the obvious candidate to take over. If that were the case, the Mariners would be in need of a reliable fourth outfielder.

Let's hope that this is the offseason that finally delivers a playoff team.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Regarding the bullpen I think both Gonzales and Erasmo are out of options. I'll be damned if Dipoto trades away O'Neil for two months of Gonzales so I see him as the #5 or long guy out of the pen. I'd also like to see a more reliable guy in the back end for high leverage spots. I don't think Vincent is the guy there, although he's been good for the most part. I prefer a guy who can also close. That guy can take Zychs spot because we can't rely on him at all to be healthy.

The rest seems obvious. Backup C, top end starter, 1B and CF. I think Heredia and Gamel should platoon. I don't see either as an everyday guy.

 

[NWinAZ]

I think Heredia and Gamel should platoon. I don't see either as an everyday guy.

But, but, but Sims and the boys quote every game how Gamel hits lefties like Edgar.

 

[ehwq]

What lefty options are available for the rotation or do we have to rely on Miranda, Gonzales and Albers? Guess Drew Smyly won't be back.

Would be nice to have Luiz Gohara back in the mix.

 

[unlvmariners]

What lefty options are available for the rotation or do we have to rely on Miranda, Gonzales and Albers? Guess Drew Smyly won't be back.

Would be nice to have Luiz Gohara back in the mix.

outside of Paxton... You pretty much covered the guys in the current organization..

I am not even shitting you, you can look throughout the organization from Clinton all the way to Tacoma, there is nothing for LH starting pitching its a wasteland. The next closest LH starter was probably drafted by Dipoto in 2017.

 

[wazzu31]

One question I do have and it might be a few years premature but when are they going to move Cano to 1B? IMO why not just move him there now, it's easier to find a viable 2B than a 1B on the free agency market. If you use the FA you almost always need to get 2 guys, even if they resign Alonso, they will still need to basically resign Valencia too. But if you do those two that leaves only enough money to bottom barrel fishing for starting pitching.

 

[unlvmariners]

One question I do have and it might be a few years premature but when are they going to move Cano to 1B? IMO why not just move him there now, it's easier to find a viable 2B than a 1B on the free agency market. If you use the FA you almost always need to get 2 guys, even if they resign Alonso, they will still need to basically resign Valencia too. But if you do those two that leaves only enough money to bottom barrel fishing for starting pitching.

Probably not soon, an interesting question to think about. If Dipoto and crew decided that was an option sooner than later it opens up the FA market and the trade market (whom I kidding we got nothing to trade) to more possibilities. I just don't see it happening soon, Cano seems like the type that would whine and pout about something like this. Maybe if there was a viable prospect pushing his way onto the roster it might be more likely (viable prospect )

 

[seahawksfan234]

I sent my dad what I wrote about this because I thought it was a fairly condensed summary of the current state of the Mariners roster going into the offseason and he doesn't follow the team as closely as I do, and one of the questions he asked me was if the Mariners had any young prospects that could possibly fill any of those roles. I sadly had to explain that at minimum the top 5 prospects in the organization were all at least a year away.

Really makes you think about how depleted the farm system is right now. Had the Mariners not traded for Marco Gonzales, we would have the option of using Tyler O'Neill as a 4th outfielder. Not only do I believe O'Neill to have a much higher ceiling than Gonzales, but I believe he'd have more use for the Mariners big league club next year than Gonzales.

 

[ehwq]

outside of Paxton... You pretty much covered the guys in the current organization..

I am not even shitting you, you can look throughout the organization from Clinton all the way to Tacoma, there is nothing for LH starting pitching its a wasteland. The next closest LH starter was probably drafted by Dipoto in 2017.

Yeah the farm is crazy. Free agent market for starting LHP is garbage too. Guess they have to settle or find a trade partner.

I know Luiz Gohara had shoulder concerns, but still bummed JP dealt him.

 

[unlvmariners]

Yeah the farm is crazy. Free agent market for starting LHP is garbage too. Guess they have to settle or find a trade partner.

I know Luiz Gohara had shoulder concerns, but still bummed JP dealt him.

In a trade that basically resulted in the Mariners giving up:
LHP Luiz Gohara
LHP Thomas Burrows (2.16 ERA in 66 innings in A ball this year)
All for:So far 5 innings of Shae Simmons and a Player named Mallex Smith who we packaged with:
LHP Ryan Yarbrough
SS Carlos Vargas 18 year old
ALL for 0 innings from Drew Smyly

To sum that mess up the Mariners traded 4 guys for 5 relief innings, fuck.

 

[seahawksfan234]

You can make a pretty solid 25-man roster out of former Mariners. The numbers listed are their 2017 statistics.

1. 2B: Chris Taylor: 21 HR 69 RBIs .292/.361/.506
2. 3B: Adrian Beltre: 16 HR 69 RBIs .311/.385/.535
3. CF: Adam Jones: 26 HR 71 RBIs .282/.320/.464
4. 1B: Justin Smoak: 38 HR 89 RBIs .277/.359/.547
5. RF: Logan Morrison: 36 HR 82 RBIs .241/.346/.511
6. LF: Eric Thames: 31 HR 60 RBIs .243/.354/.526
7. C: Welington Castillo: 20 HR 52 RBIs .280/.320/.494
8. DH: Kendrys Morales: 27 HR 80 RBIs .249/.306/.448
9. SS: Ketel Marte: 5 HRs 16 RBIs .260/.341/.393

BENCH: C: Chris Ianetta: 14 HR 34 RBIs .249/.348/.486
BENCH: OF: Shin-Soo Choo: 19 HR 74 RBIs .262/.358/.414
BENCH: IF: Luis Valbuena: 21 HR 58 RBIs .195/.286/.428
BENCH: 1B: Mark Trumbo: 23 HR 65 RBIs .236/.291/.402
BENCH: OF: Mallex Smith: 16 SB .267/.332/.356

1. Taijuan Walker: 3.45 ERA 148.2 IP
2. J.A. Happ: 3.76 ERA 131.2 IP
3. Jason Vargas: 4.19 ERA 163.1 IP
4. R.A. Dickey: 4.41 ERA 175.1 IP
5. Doug Fister: 4.86 ERA 79.2 IP

Bullpen:
1. Steve Cishek: 2.21 ERA 40.2 IP
2. Brandon Morrow: 2.21 ERA 40.2 IP (not a typo they both have the exact same ERA and IP)
3. Josh Fields: 2.89 ERA 53 IP
4. Mike Montgomery: 3.47 ERA 124.1 IP
5. Oliver Perez: 4.02 ERA 31.1 IP
6. Wade LeBlanc: 4.52 ERA 67.2 IP
7. Nate Karns: 4.17 ERA 45.1 IP

 

[seahawksfan234]

Padres re-sign Clayton Richard to a two year contract. He has had a solid year this year starting for the Padres with a 4.63 ERA w/192 IP. Probably got a bit lucky considering the amount of hits he gave up (232).

 

[cezero]

i don't give enough of a fuck about this team to start a new thread, but the tigers are firing ausmus.

i'm not anti-servais, but this is interesting.

 

[Destroydacre]

Yeah the farm is crazy. Free agent market for starting LHP is garbage too. Guess they have to settle or find a trade partner.

I know Luiz Gohara had shoulder concerns, but still bummed JP dealt him.

What really gets me is in 2014 when the M's were on the cusp of the playoffs, all you heard was how terrible their farm system is and they have nothing to make a big trade. Flash forward to 2017 and all the talk was how terrible the farm system is and how the M's don't have anyone to make a big trade. In 2014 the Yankees were growing old but also going for a playoff spot. The talk was how depleted their farm system is, from multiple trades over the years, and they don't have the assets to make a big trade. However in 2017 the talk is how stocked their farm system is and how they can make several trades, which they did. That right there is the difference between a team like the Yankees and a team like the Mariners. The Yankees not only had prospects to trade, but also rookies making a huge impact in the majors right now. The Mariners have nothing and have had nothing in the farm system for damn near 20 years now. That's how inept the management has been here.

 

[seahawksfan234]

i don't give enough of a fuck about this team to start a new thread, but the tigers are firing ausmus.

i'm not anti-servais, but this is interesting.

I believe a lot of the decisions Servais made cost us a few games this year. Even if one decision itself didn't lose the game, he has made so many poor small decisions that over the course of the year it has definitely cost us. I'm not saying a different manager would have got us to the playoffs, just that his decisions didn't help things.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Erasmo Ramirez is making a pretty good case to remain in the rotation next year. He has a 3.79 ERA in his 10 starts so far.

His last 8 ones have looked particularly solid. Went 6 IP or better in 7 of 8 and gave up 2 or less earned runs in 6 of those 8.

 

[NWinAZ]

I think Ramirez and Leake have definitely earned a shot at a spot next year. With that said, don't (JD) rest on that fact and please still go out and get two legit starters and actually have a competition to find the best 5 and not wait to see the last 5 standing. The money is there so no excuses. I am having second thoughts on Darvish unless he comes cheaper than expected. The guy hasn't done much with Dodgers and seems to be bothered with nagging injuries more and more.

 

[unlvmariners]

I believe a lot of the decisions Servais made cost us a few games this year. Even if one decision itself didn't lose the game, he has made so many poor small decisions that over the course of the year it has definitely cost us. I'm not saying a different manager would have got us to the playoffs, just that his decisions didn't help things.

I agree... Servais has no doubt made some decisions that cost the Mariners in one way or another. I believe he has caused more harm than good, but its a really tough thing to judge.

 

[seahawksfan234]

You can make a pretty solid 25-man roster out of former Mariners. The numbers listed are their 2017 statistics.

1. 2B: Chris Taylor: 21 HR 69 RBIs .292/.361/.506
2. 3B: Adrian Beltre: 16 HR 69 RBIs .311/.385/.535
3. CF: Adam Jones: 26 HR 71 RBIs .282/.320/.464
4. 1B: Justin Smoak: 38 HR 89 RBIs .277/.359/.547
5. RF: Logan Morrison: 36 HR 82 RBIs .241/.346/.511
6. LF: Eric Thames: 31 HR 60 RBIs .243/.354/.526
7. C: Welington Castillo: 20 HR 52 RBIs .280/.320/.494
8. DH: Kendrys Morales: 27 HR 80 RBIs .249/.306/.448
9. SS: Ketel Marte: 5 HRs 16 RBIs .260/.341/.393

BENCH: C: Chris Ianetta: 14 HR 34 RBIs .249/.348/.486
BENCH: OF: Shin-Soo Choo: 19 HR 74 RBIs .262/.358/.414
BENCH: IF: Luis Valbuena: 21 HR 58 RBIs .195/.286/.428
BENCH: 1B: Mark Trumbo: 23 HR 65 RBIs .236/.291/.402
BENCH: OF: Mallex Smith: 16 SB .267/.332/.356

1. Taijuan Walker: 3.45 ERA 148.2 IP
2. J.A. Happ: 3.76 ERA 131.2 IP
3. Jason Vargas: 4.19 ERA 163.1 IP
4. R.A. Dickey: 4.41 ERA 175.1 IP
5. Doug Fister: 4.86 ERA 79.2 IP

Bullpen:
1. Steve Cishek: 2.21 ERA 40.2 IP
2. Brandon Morrow: 2.21 ERA 40.2 IP (not a typo they both have the exact same ERA and IP)
3. Josh Fields: 2.89 ERA 53 IP
4. Mike Montgomery: 3.47 ERA 124.1 IP
5. Oliver Perez: 4.02 ERA 31.1 IP
6. Wade LeBlanc: 4.52 ERA 67.2 IP
7. Nate Karns: 4.17 ERA 45.1 IP

Austin Jackson also having a good year: 80 games 7 HRs 34 RBIs .324/.389/.500

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think Ramirez and Leake have definitely earned a shot at a spot next year. With that said, don't (JD) rest on that fact and please still go out and get two legit starters and actually have a competition to find the best 5 and not wait to see the last 5 standing. The money is there so no excuses. I am having second thoughts on Darvish unless he comes cheaper than expected. The guy hasn't done much with Dodgers and seems to be bothered with nagging injuries more and more.

Given Leake's track record and performance so far I think he's a definite lock for the rotation, so he shouldn't be in question. I'm more confident in Erasmo than before and wouldn't be too upset if he was a starter. I do agree with you though, the Mariners do still need to add two legit starters. I really wish the Mariners weren't hamstrung by Felix's contract. Given the past few years, I don't believe we can count on him for 20+ starts ever again. 20 starts and a 4.30 ERA would be optimistic at this point IMO.

At least we know when Paxton and Felix go down, we have about 400 #5 caliber pitchers in our organization.