Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread

[wazzu31]

Ryan Divish tweeted that the Mariners are likely to look outside the organization for a first baseman.

Shannon Drayer tweeted that Dipoto revealed Heredia basically played with a dislocated shoulder all year long and it had to be put back into place four times.

Once again I don't want to overstep my expertise since I have none in this subject, but shouldn't something have been done about that earlier? He has to have surgery and was hitting .272/.338/.377, but closed the year out in his final 70 ABs hitting .143/.211/.157. Clearly it was ailing him. Sounds like he should've been shut down much sooner.

That is kind of the excuse that has been tossed out, Cano a few years ago, Seager, Felix and the list goes on where they make an excuse and you're like why the hell was he playing then.

 

[NWinAZ]

General manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais met with the media Tuesday morning to wrap up the Mariners 2017 season. While need for better fundamentals was addressed, the biggest issue that impacted Seattle’s season was clearly injuries to the pitching staff. When it was all said and done, the team used an MLB-record 40 pitchers with 17 different players making starts.

“At the end of the day we experienced a very turbulent season on the mound,” said Dipoto. “That as lopsided as it was – and this is a credit to (pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr.) and the job that he did with 40 pitchers and Scott for managing something that no manager in history has ever managed before – they did a remarkable job because somehow they were able to take that group and finish about in the middle of the pack in run prevention.”


Servais ready to find solutions to what held M’s back

From losing Drew Smyly in spring training to the early shutdown of Hisashi Iwakuma to multiple disabled list trips by Felix Hernandez and James Paxton, the rotation was never what it was intended to be. While Dipoto said that he felt confident about the group heading into the season with Paxton coming off a career high in innings, Iwakuma a 200-inning season and Smyly having only one down year due to injury in his career, he admitted that it was on him to find better backup.

“Fate didn’t shine kindly on us in the training room this year, but there were also issues we could have been out in front of both as a medical training staff, as a coaching staff or as a front office planning staff and put in place the ability to absorb some of the innings we lost. That’s on me. I don’t know how many years I can prepare for us to run 17 starters out there, but we have to do better this year,” he said.

The rotation in 2018 will once again be built around James Paxton and Felix Hernandez, who missed a combined 147 games in 2017. Dipoto pointed out that Paxton’s injuries throughout his career have been mostly unpredictable. With Felix he painted a different picture, with much learned this year. His issues going forward are much more predictable and not something that can be fixed in an offseason.

“I don’t know how we are going to get him through 33 starts without managing it a little differently than we have previously,” said Dipoto. “Whether that is starting less frequently, whether it is monitoring pitch counts in a different way than we have before, whether it’s part of his offseason training preparation and in-season routines, we will do whatever we have to do is make sure he is in the best position he can be.”

The wear and tear of just over 2,500 innings over Felix’s career has taken its toll.

“I don’t know that he can try and stay healthier,” said Dipoto when asked what Felix could do this offseason to avoid similar problems. “Once you have these issues it’s a matter of maintenance. The issues that Felix has endured are happening under his skin. You can’t work harder and make ligaments stronger. You can’t lose weight and create more stability in an elbow joint. That’s not real. What we are dealing with is trying to manage and create enough depth behind Felix so that when he goes out and takes his start we can find a way to monitor his outings so he is out there as frequently as he can be and when he steps aside and inevitably needs a little time we have someone who can step in.”

This will go far beyond having a sixth starter ready at Tacoma. As he hinted throughout the season, Dipoto will look to reconfigure the pitching staff. The names and faces will be mostly the same, however the usage could be very different.

“We are not going to plan on innings from starting pitching than we have counted on before,” said Dipoto. “That’s just not how the game works. There were 15 200-innings pitchers this year. We didn’t have a single qualifier for the ERA title. That’s the way the game has gone. We are going to plan as a result of that in a little different way than we have before. You’ve heard me talk before about the wolfpack-type pitching, We are going to see a different style of pitching staff and how it is set up. We have depth, we have quality pitchers on this staff. We have a lot of quality, we just have to figure out how to put it all together in a different way.”

We may have seen a preview of that when the Mariners were down four of five intended starters in 2017, with more of the innings load being carried by the bullpen. While injury necessitated that, the trend in baseball is for starters to throw less. Proof is that only 56 starters threw the 162 innings needed to qualify for the ERA title.

“We are adjusting toward what the world looks like now for starting pitchers, which is a little more the 15-18 (batters per) starter than the complete game starter. And we have to wrap our arms around that, and wrap our minds around that’s where the game is.”

The work of Dipoto and his staff will go beyond finding arms to plug into roles. Those roles could be redefined as new plans are developed. What that looks like is uncertain at this point, but in the end it all has to add up to about 1,440 innings, hopefully split between far fewer than 40 pitchers.

 

[cezero]

“I don’t know that he can try and stay healthier,” said Dipoto when asked what Felix could do this offseason to avoid similar problems. “Once you have these issues it’s a matter of maintenance. The issues that Felix has endured are happening under his skin. You can’t work harder and make ligaments stronger. You can’t lose weight and create more stability in an elbow joint. That’s not real. What we are dealing with is trying to manage and create enough depth behind Felix so that when he goes out and takes his start we can find a way to monitor his outings so he is out there as frequently as he can be and when he steps aside and inevitably needs a little time we have someone who can step in.”

...so Felix is done. glad he was clear on that. for real. really wondering what we're going to see him do to try to create a real starting.

or maybe dreading seeing what he'll do...

"This will go far beyond having a sixth starter ready at Tacoma. As he hinted throughout the season, Dipoto will look to reconfigure the pitching staff. The names and faces will be mostly the same, however the usage could be very different."

 

[NWinAZ]

This will go far beyond having a sixth starter ready at Tacoma. As he hinted throughout the season, Dipoto will look to reconfigure the pitching staff. The names and faces will be mostly the same, however the usage could be very different.

This has to be the greatest comment in M's history. All 40 pitchers used got us to 23 games behind the division leader so let's not change the players let's just use them differently....huh? Bad is always bad no matter how you use them.

 

[wazzu31]

I just don't get Jerry's reinventing the wheel philosophy since he got exiled with the Angels. The WS winners is always a combination of really good drafting then sprinkle in some free agents. Not collect 90 fringe starting pitchers and hope they can make a 9 man rotation.

 

[seahawksfan234]

BREAKING NEWS: DYNASTY INCOMING:

The Mariners will replace all the grass and dirt at Safeco Field for the first time since the park opened in 1999.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I’m glad Dipoto at least admitted we are light years away from catching the Astros. It’s obvious but it’s reality. So that being said unless they are willing to fix their biggest weakness then why bother. And please spare me the injury’s excuse. Everyone has injuries. The Astros were missing Keuchel, McCullers and Correa for huge chunks of time.
The teams two highest paid hitters weren’t anything more then ordinary, they were at the bottom of the league in baserunning metrics and the fielding was spotty too. Also it seemed like “control the zone” wasn’t really as much of a thing this year. The only way this group competes for anything next year is if they spend and get lucky

 

[seahawksfan234]

I’m glad Dipoto at least admitted we are light years away from catching the Astros. It’s obvious but it’s reality. So that being said unless they are willing to fix their biggest weakness then why bother. And please spare me the injury’s excuse. Everyone has injuries. The Astros were missing Keuchel, McCullers and Correa for huge chunks of time.
The teams two highest paid hitters weren’t anything more then ordinary, they were at the bottom of the league in baserunning metrics and the fielding was spotty too. Also it seemed like “control the zone” wasn’t really as much of a thing this year. The only way this group competes for anything next year is if they spend and get lucky

I'd say that every team in the American league is light years away from catching the Astros, so that doesn't mean all that much. Really the only teams that can catch up with the Astros are the Yankees and Red Sox, and although the Indians had one more win than the Astros I'd still say the Astros are the better team. Both in the short and long term I believe the Astros to be the best team in the AL, hands down. That being said, I don't think we are light years away from being a playoff team. Getting to the playoffs is half the battle, from there, anything can happen.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Heyman | Mariners GM Defends Scott Servais As Pressure Builds

 

[NWinAZ]

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Offseason Plans

By Jeff Todd | October 5, 2017 at 12:25pm CDT

Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto discussed the next steps for his organization with reporters, including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Seattle trailed off late in the year and missed the postseason for the 16th-straight season, but it doesn’t sound as if a major roster shakeup is in order.

To the contrary, Dipoto stressed that he’s not anticipating anything approaching the kind of player turnover he oversaw during his first two years in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations. While he acknowledged there are “holes to fill,” he also said that he doesn’t expect “frantic movement” in the offseason to come.

Most broadly, the club’s top baseball ops official noted that his front office’s prior efforts have resulted in a more youthful slate of MLB talent that should provide a solid base moving forward. “I feel like we’ve made a significant move forward,” said Dipoto.“You just don’t really see it in the standings quite as much as we might see it in future planning.”

He also acknowledged that it remains a tall order to put together a team that’s truly competitive with the division-leading Astros. “That’s going to take some time and frankly a little bit of luck,” he said.

It’s unclear what kind of payroll space will be available for what moves the team does make. Seattle finished 2016 with over $170MM on the books and opened the 2017 campaign at over $150MM. Even if the team spends at that level again, there likely wouldn’t be much room to work with, since the Mariners already have $110MM on the books for 2018 before accounting for some significant arbitration salaries.

Looking more particularly at the roster, Dipoto suggested that he doesn’t see the M’s as being particularly in need of adding starting pitching. While he acknowledged that adding a quality starter would be nice, he indicated that the team is no more needy in that area than are most others around the league.

Dipoto sees both “depth” and “quality” in the existing staff. Notably, he also suggested that Seattle is prepared to utilize its staff in a more flexible manner going forward. “We’re going to see a different style of pitching staff and how it’s set up,” said Dipoto. “… We are adjusting toward what the world looks like now for starting pitchers, which is a 15-to-18-out starter (rather) than the complete-game starter.”

Of course, like most teams, the Mariners have interest in young Japanese star Shohei Otani, who is poised to represent a unique bargain given his unique circumstances. He’d represent a potentially game-changing addition to the pitching staff and Dutton says the club is going to do everything it can to land him, perhaps hoping its history with Japanese players will provide an edge. Dipoto did not comment on the two-way performer, but did note that he thinks it’s possible a player could see significant action as both a pitcher and hitter — though he added it’s unlikely that both could be done on a full-time basis.

Elsewhere, the club needs to add an outfielder and consider its options at first base. Dipoto said that the Mariners won’t necessarily need to add a center-field-capable player to cover for the loss of Jarrod Dyson to free agency, citing the potential to utilize Mitch Haniger and Guillermo Heredia up the middle. (Notably, though, manager Scott Servais did mention the need to improve on the bases, as Dutton reports. Dyson was easily the team’s best performer in that department.) That stance ought to help with flexibility as the Mariners sort through the options on the open market (and, perhaps, the trade market).

At first base, the GM suggested there’s a real possibility of bringing back Yonder Alonso, though he also emphasized that there will likely be “a lot of different options” to be considered. Certainly, the free-agent market has a variety of possibilities, perhaps representing opportunity to target a given player or to achieve some value through patience. Though he indicated that the team still believes in Dan Vogelbach and Evan White, Dipoto noted that it “remains to be seen” whether either will be a major part of the solution for the season to come.

 

[cezero]

Looking more particularly at the roster, Dipoto suggested that he doesn’t see the M’s as being particularly in need of adding starting pitching.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I'd say that every team in the American league is light years away from catching the Astros, so that doesn't mean all that much.

Disagree in the sense that they are in our division. It gives the front office a built in excuse to not do anything drastic when the best case scenario is one game playoff. Therefore they can do this half buy and half sell approach that they choose. Couple that with the Indians being very strong and the Redsox and Yankees being young and willing to spend, not sure
where that leaves the Ms.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Disagree in the sense that they are in our division. It gives the front office a built in excuse to not do anything drastic when the best case scenario is one game playoff. Therefore they can do this half buy and half sell approach that they choose. Couple that with the Indians being very strong and the Redsox and Yankees being young and willing to spend, not sure
where that leaves the Ms.

I don't think it gives us a built in excuse not to do anything drastic. I just think it's a matter of fact that the Astros are significantly better than us. You can acknowledge that and still do your best to build a good team. In sports anything can happen.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Dipoto sees both “depth” and “quality” in the existing staff. Notably, he also suggested that Seattle is prepared to utilize its staff in a more flexible manner going forward. “We’re going to see a different style of pitching staff and how it’s set up,” said Dipoto. “… We are adjusting toward what the world looks like now for starting pitchers, which is a 15-to-18-out starter (rather) than the complete-game starter.”

Don't get me wrong, I love analytics and sabermetrics, but what the fuck? Is this really a thing? 5-6 innings a game?

To me it just seems like common sense that it's extremely helpful to your bullpen if the top of your rotation can go 7-8 innings on a regular basis. Keeps those guys fresh. I recall a game in which Edwin Diaz got blasted because he had pitched like 3 or 4 straight games or something.

I think this is just a bullshit explanation for his inability to build a rotation of guys who can regularly go 7 innings a start. Leake and Paxton look like the only two who can reliably do that now, but given Paxton's injury concerns that may be limited to 20-25 starts a year.

 

[unlvmariners]

Don't get me wrong, I love analytics and sabermetrics, but what the fuck? Is this really a thing? 5-6 innings a game?

To me it just seems like common sense that it's extremely helpful to your bullpen if the top of your rotation can go 7-8 innings on a regular basis. Keeps those guys fresh. I recall a game in which Edwin Diaz got blasted because he had pitched like 3 or 4 straight games or something.

I think this is just a bullshit explanation for his inability to build a rotation of guys who can regularly go 7 innings a start. Leake and Paxton look like the only two who can reliably do that now, but given Paxton's injury concerns that may be limited to 20-25 starts a year.

Agreed!!! Dip is trying to justify having a shitty rotation and the insane need to have 17 different starters, not to mention how many of those 17 guys that made starts had an ERA over 5??? I know Miranda and Gallardo for sure and probably all of the AAAA starters Dip likes so much.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Agreed!!! Dip is trying to justify having a shitty rotation and the insane need to have 17 different starters, not to mention how many of those 17 guys that made starts had an ERA over 5??? I know Miranda and Gallardo for sure and probably all of the AAAA starters Dip likes so much.

It confuses me. It's almost like he's trying to create some kind of justification. I could just be out of the loop and perhaps this is some big new fad supported by a bunch of advanced statistics, but most good teams have strong rotations.

 

[unlvmariners]

It confuses me. It's almost like he's trying to create some kind of justification. I could just be out of the loop and perhaps this is some big new fad supported by a bunch of advanced statistics, but most good teams have strong rotations.

Its confusing because it doesn't make sense, at least the way he said it doesn't make sense. I think the point he was trying to make was, in general starters aren't getting as deep into games before the decision is made to go to the bullpen..

Regardless In my opinion Dipoto is completely off the rails when it comes to pitching and I think he is missing the mark on how to build a quality rotation with sufficient depth to get you through a season without the wheels coming off, which seemed like every single start there at times.

 

[NWinAZ]

Its confusing because it doesn't make sense, at least the way he said it doesn't make sense. I think the point he was trying to make was, in general starters aren't getting as deep into games before the decision is made to go to the bullpen..

Regardless In my opinion Dipoto is completely off the rails when it comes to pitching and I think he is missing the mark on how to build a quality rotation with sufficient depth to get you through a season without the wheels coming off, which seemed like every single start there at times.

He is sounding a lot like Jack did in year 3 when things started to crumble. GM's have nobody to blame but themselves. He has a good payroll...just shitty players.

 

[mcnabb7542]

Maybe lowering beer prices at the stadium would ease the pain of the same rotation being run back out there next season????

 

[seahawksfan234]

Its confusing because it doesn't make sense, at least the way he said it doesn't make sense. I think the point he was trying to make was, in general starters aren't getting as deep into games before the decision is made to go to the bullpen..

Regardless In my opinion Dipoto is completely off the rails when it comes to pitching and I think he is missing the mark on how to build a quality rotation with sufficient depth to get you through a season without the wheels coming off, which seemed like every single start there at times.

I'm honestly unsure where he gets that idea from. Is there some data that indicates pitchers aren't going as deep into games as in years past? @blstoker I know you're usually pretty damn resourceful with weird questions like this if you have any insight. This statement has really got me confused and I'm now weirdly interested in it.

The questions I have (in my attempt to understand his strange logic):
1. Is the average start beginning to decrease?
2. Are teams attempting to use their bullpen in a more strategic way to exploit match-ups similar to NFL defenses?

I'll address point #2 first since it's a shorter explanation. I'm unsure about the league in general, but it's quite easy to see that the Mariners do not employ a very scientific approach to their decisions regarding their bullpen. So no, it's not about match-ups.

Regarding point 1 I'm unsure where to find the exact data to answer that question. To use a rather imprecise measurement what I'll do is compare 2017-2014 and 2005-2008. I picked these two 4-year gaps because I wanted to randomize it without accumulating all the data for the past 20 years.

2017: 15 players with 200+ IP (0 pitchers above 220 IP)
2016: 15 players with 200 + IP (6 pitchers above 220 IP)
2015: 28 players with 200 + IP (7 pitchers above 220 IP)
2014: 34 players with 200 + IP (8 pitchers above 220 IP)
Total: 92 players with 200 + IP (21 pitchers above 220 IP)

2008: 34 players with 200+ IP (8 pitchers above 220 IP)
2007: 38 players with 200+ IP (9 pitchers above 220 IP)
2006: 45 players with 200+ IP (12 pitchers above 220 IP)
2005: 50 players with 200+ IP (20 pitchers above 220 IP)
Total: 167 players with 200+ IP (49 players above 220 IP)

It would appear that he is factually correct in his claim that we don't see as many innings eaters anymore, but I don't believe that's a result of strategy - like he seems to. There are a number of different variables that could account for that. Injuries, the recent HR surge and perhaps a change in the distribution of talent from the mound to the plate could be contributing factors.

Also, I have to wonder if teams are being a bit more careful with their younger pitchers than in the past. A number of those guys throwing 210+ every year from 2005-2010 may have burned out by 2017 *cough* Felix Hernandez *cough*

TLDR: There does seem to be a change in innings pitched, especially when comparing 2016 and 2017 to 2015 and 2014, but I believe there are a number of variables that could have caused that. Additionally, I don't believe it's an excuse not to go after guys who can throw 200+ innings. If you're going to make that excuse, then go out and build a top-5 bullpen of guys who will compensate for runs given up early on. Even then, I don't find that model all that appealing. Relievers are a dime a dozen.

He is sounding a lot like Jack did in year 3 when things started to crumble. GM's have nobody to blame but themselves. He has a good payroll...just shitty players.

Wasn't it Jack Z who had that ridiculous idea of building a lineup of guys who can't run, make contract or field but had a high OBP and a bunch of home runs?