Official July 31 trade deadline thread

[Heathbar012]

We have to laugh .... not many other options open to us ..... I'm almost glad that this has turned into a 'quick death' ....... not sure how I'd deal with us being 5-6 out after the break and then continue to just play about .500 ball .... and never really close any ground ... just slowly slip farther behind.

This way we can look forward to 2014 and our discussions can be centered on competing again next year and some of the changes that we can possibly see coming. Much better than watching our team slowing sink in September and always looking for the rescue boat ... that never comes

That's just it. We're not the front office. I think this awful scenario that you just described will be closer to our August reality than anyone is willing to believe (September will, hopefully, be a different story). Even when the most die hard fans give up, the people with the most amount of money on the line don't necessarily do so.

Whether this is the correct approach, or not, doesn't matter. I can't recall a team with a payroll in the top half of the league and 6.5 games back of the division on July 11th (no matter any recent slides) ever selling off as many assets as is being discussed here. I'm not saying the Giants shouldn't be sellers in some capacity, but this "re-tooling for 2014" myth is just that. I don't have any inside information, but based on interviews that I have seen/read with Sabean and Boch, 2014 is one of the furthest things from their minds right now.

I was talking to a Dodger fan buddy of mine last week, and he said, "Man, I'm glad they're doing well on this road trip. If not, I think they would have been sellers at the deadline." I responded, "Really?! The owners are paying almost a quarter of a billion dollars in payroll, and you think they would've given up this year because they might have been 7 games back at the All-Star Break? You do realize almost half of the remaining games are within the NL West, right?"

Sure, this team has been awful for the "better" part of two months. So were the Dodgers. Granted, they had more big injuries than the Giants, but the talent levels of the rosters are comparable. The Padres and Rockies are about to be awful for at least a month (skill levels not comparable), so I'm not quite on the unload-everything-other-than-the-crucial-core train. Of course, Sabean should be listening to offers. That is his job, and he has done it quite well at least over the last decade (and his bad decisions were mostly from just following orders). Wait and see what three full days off can do for some of these guys. The phone will keep ringing off the hook until July 31st (and even then it'll only slow down until the utter silence of September 1st).

 

[msgkings322]

That's just it. We're not the front office. I think this awful scenario that you just described will be closer to our August reality than anyone is willing to believe (September will, hopefully, be a different story). Even when the most die hard fans give up, the people with the most amount of money on the line don't necessarily do so.

Whether this is the correct approach, or not, doesn't matter. I can't recall a team with a payroll in the top half of the league and 6.5 games back of the division on July 11th (no matter any recent slides) ever selling off as many assets as is being discussed here. I'm not saying the Giants shouldn't be sellers in some capacity, but this "re-tooling for 2014" myth is just that. I don't have any inside information, but based on interviews that I have seen/read with Sabean and Boch, 2014 is one of the furthest things from their minds right now.

I was talking to a Dodger fan buddy of mine last week, and he said, "Man, I'm glad they're doing well on this road trip. If not, I think they would have been sellers at the deadline." I responded, "Really?! The owners are paying almost a quarter of a billion dollars in payroll, and you think they would've given up this year because they might have been 7 games back at the All-Star Break? You do realize almost half of the remaining games are within the NL West, right?"

Sure, this team has been awful for the "better" part of two months. So were the Dodgers. Granted, they had more big injuries than the Giants, but the talent levels of the rosters are comparable. The Padres and Rockies are about to be awful for at least a month (skill levels not comparable), so I'm not quite on the unload-everything-other-than-the-crucial-core train. Of course, Sabean should be listening to offers. That is his job, and he has done it quite well at least over the last decade (and his bad decisions were mostly from just following orders). Wait and see what three full days off can do for some of these guys. The phone will keep ringing off the hook until July 31st (and even then it'll only slow down until the utter silence of September 1st).

See, it's well-reasoned and thoughtful posts like this that bring me a little bit of hope back, you f-ing bastard!

From 'Shawshank Redemption': "Hope can drive a man insane..."

 

[msgkings322]

While the Giants as a team have been terrible, the board retains a wicked sense of humor.

It's just a game, being a fan is supposed to be fun...it's more fun when you're winning, but having a laugh isn't bad if you're losing.

 

[SF11704]

That's just it. We're not the front office. I think this awful scenario that you just described will be closer to our August reality than anyone is willing to believe (September will, hopefully, be a different story). Even when the most die hard fans give up, the people with the most amount of money on the line don't necessarily do so.

Whether this is the correct approach, or not, doesn't matter. I can't recall a team with a payroll in the top half of the league and 6.5 games back of the division on July 11th (no matter any recent slides) ever selling off as many assets as is being discussed here. I'm not saying the Giants shouldn't be sellers in some capacity, but this "re-tooling for 2014" myth is just that. I don't have any inside information, but based on interviews that I have seen/read with Sabean and Boch, 2014 is one of the furthest things from their minds right now.

I was talking to a Dodger fan buddy of mine last week, and he said, "Man, I'm glad they're doing well on this road trip. If not, I think they would have been sellers at the deadline." I responded, "Really?! The owners are paying almost a quarter of a billion dollars in payroll, and you think they would've given up this year because they might have been 7 games back at the All-Star Break? You do realize almost half of the remaining games are within the NL West, right?"

Sure, this team has been awful for the "better" part of two months. So were the Dodgers. Granted, they had more big injuries than the Giants, but the talent levels of the rosters are comparable. The Padres and Rockies are about to be awful for at least a month (skill levels not comparable), so I'm not quite on the unload-everything-other-than-the-crucial-core train. Of course, Sabean should be listening to offers. That is his job, and he has done it quite well at least over the last decade (and his bad decisions were mostly from just following orders). Wait and see what three full days off can do for some of these guys. The phone will keep ringing off the hook until July 31st (and even then it'll only slow down until the utter silence of September 1st).

I agree with this in my heart. As a Giant fan you never give up hope, Anything is possible. It's my brain that seems to be moving in another direction!. Having lost 18 or the last 23 and scoring 3 or less runs in 15 of those loses makes me believe that our climb back to the top will be real difficult at best. Not impossible simply because until we are mathametically eliminated .... it is possible. I don't believe that we have to 're-tool' for 2014. We have a good core but we do need to make some changes and we have to answer some questions. As fans we can discuss any and all possibilities but in the end .... as you said .... it's SF management that decides the path that this team will take. As a long time Giant fan ... I'll be along for the trip no matter what path management takes us on ....

 

[Heathbar012]

See, it's well-reasoned and thoughtful posts like this that bring me a little bit of hope back, you f-ing bastard!

From 'Shawshank Redemption': "Hope can drive a man insane..."

Agreed. Right now, it seems the sentiment is: "we would rather watch horrible baseball from different players because it will make us feel better about the future." If the team is within 9 games of first at the deadline, I never feel that way until September. Does that mean they could potentially miss out on picking up some good prospects and get rid of some deadweight? Sure, but how often do GMs pull off both of those things successfully at the trade deadline? Not very often, and we won't know for certain until a few years from now. It's nice to think that if the moves are geared toward competing again in 2014 that they will work out better, but given the expected crop of FAs in positions of need, I don't see that scenario as much more positive than being 4-8 games out of the playoffs in early July (even with the atrocious ball we've seen recently). Again, the offers will come, regardless, so only time will tell. Meanwhile, I'd rather root for winning than hope for a quick death. It's the main reason why MLB is better than the NFL or NBA. Tanking does nothing for the immediate future of a franchise.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed. Right now, it seems the sentiment is: "we would rather watch horrible baseball from different players because it will make us feel better about the future." If the team is within 9 games of first at the deadline, I never feel that way until September. Does that mean they could potentially miss out on picking up some good prospects and get rid of some deadweight? Sure, but how often do GMs pull off both of those things successfully at the trade deadline? Not very often, and we won't know for certain until a few years from now. It's nice to think that if the moves are geared toward competing again in 2014 that they will work out better, but given the expected crop of FAs in positions of need, I don't see that scenario as much more positive than being 4-8 games out of the playoffs in early July (even with the atrocious ball we've seen recently). Again, the offers will come, regardless, so only time will tell. Meanwhile, I'd rather root for winning than hope for a quick death. It's the main reason why MLB is better than the NFL or NBA. Tanking does nothing for the immediate future of a franchise.

I don't know that I agree. Look at how the Angels tanked in order to get to the top of the draft in order to select Trout.

Huh?...

He was picked WHERE?...

Nevermind...

 

[SF11704]

Agreed. Right now, it seems the sentiment is: "we would rather watch horrible baseball from different players because it will make us feel better about the future." If the team is within 9 games of first at the deadline, I never feel that way until September. Does that mean they could potentially miss out on picking up some good prospects and get rid of some deadweight? Sure, but how often do GMs pull off both of those things successfully at the trade deadline? Not very often, and we won't know for certain until a few years from now. It's nice to think that if the moves are geared toward competing again in 2014 that they will work out better, but given the expected crop of FAs in positions of need, I don't see that scenario as much more positive than being 4-8 games out of the playoffs in early July (even with the atrocious ball we've seen recently). Again, the offers will come, regardless, so only time will tell. Meanwhile, I'd rather root for winning than hope for a quick death. It's the main reason why MLB is better than the NFL or NBA. Tanking does nothing for the immediate future of a franchise.

Not sure I understand what you mean ...... my take is this .....

I think we are in a some what deep hole. I really don't believe that we make it back to the top NO MATTER what we do at this moment in time (buy, sell or a combination). I don't want to trade away core pieces (Belt) or some farm talent on a whim and prayer. With that as my premis I would play our starters through August and then re-evaluate on the remainder of the year. If we pulled to within contention ... God bless us and let's keep playing with what we have. If we can not make up any ground then I suggest we bring up our kids and let the rest of the year belong to them. I personally don't like the July trading period. Buying is at a premium and is not a guarentee for anything. If we need to put some other pieces in place at a later time .... I'd opt for the December meetings. I just don't see any need to start selling any of our resources unless absolutely necessary. The only big question that this brings to mind are about Timmy and Hunter .... if we (SF management) does not intend to re-sign them ..... it just makes for an interesting situation on July 30th .... depending on where we are at that date.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Looking at the standings on 2013 National League Standings & Expanded Standings - Baseball-Reference.com , there's exactly ONE team that's worse than the Giants over their last 10 games in all of the majors : the Padres (1-9 vs. our 2-8). Over the last 20, or last 30, there is NO team in the majors who has a worse record.

Depressing. Maybe it is time to train up Francoeur, trade Pence and Timmy and Gaudin, rest Scutaro and Panda and Torres, play Abreu and call up some youngsters. "Extended Spring Training" to look at some rooks, fall down the standings to get a top-3 pick (although it will be hard to catch HOU or MIA).

 

[Heathbar012]

Not sure I understand what you mean ...... my take is this .....

I think we are in a some what deep hole. I really don't believe that we make it back to the top NO MATTER what we do at this moment in time (buy, sell or a combination). I don't want to trade away core pieces (Belt) or some farm talent on a whim and prayer. With that as my premis I would play our starters through August and then re-evaluate on the remainder of the year. If we pulled to within contention ... God bless us and let's keep playing with what we have. If we can not make up any ground then I suggest we bring up our kids and let the rest of the year belong to them. I personally don't like the July trading period. Buying is at a premium and is not a guarentee for anything. If we need to put some other pieces in place at a later time .... I'd opt for the December meetings. I just don't see any need to start selling any of our resources unless absolutely necessary. The only big question that this brings to mind are about Timmy and Hunter .... if we (SF management) does not intend to re-sign them ..... it just makes for an interesting situation on July 30th .... depending on where we are at that date.

I was responding to msg. The use of your "quick death" was accidental. Good wordplay must have remained on the brain.

 

[tzill]

Looking at the standings on 2013 National League Standings & Expanded Standings - Baseball-Reference.com , there's exactly ONE team that's worse than the Giants over their last 10 games in all of the majors : the Padres (1-9 vs. our 2-8). Over the last 20, or last 30, there is NO team in the majors who has a worse record.

Depressing. Maybe it is time to train up Francoeur, trade Pence and Timmy and Gaudin, rest Scutaro and Panda and Torres, play Abreu and call up some youngsters. "Extended Spring Training" to look at some rooks, fall down the standings to get a top-3 pick (although it will be hard to catch HOU or MIA).

I don't think there's much of a market for Timmy. Pence and Gaudin won't get you much either. It'll be interesting to see how SabeySabes handles suckitude.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't think there's much of a market for Timmy. Pence and Gaudin won't get you much either. It'll be interesting to see how SabeySabes handles suckitude.

I am not sure that Timmeh will not have value. He has actually become probably our #2 SP, and he showed last year that he can act as a super-reliever if needed in the post-season. He may not fetch a Wheeler type prospect, but I think he may be able to fetch a B+/A- prospect.

Gaudin was a valuable trade chip when we woke up yesterday. By the time we went to bed, not so much.

 

[dredinis21]

I don't see the need to trade Timmeh or Pence as I don't see either bringing in a blue chip prospect in return. However, if we keep them and offer them a QO, we get a supplemental 1st as both are Type A FA, IIRC. Maybe the prob is that the QO would be much higher then it should be and if that is so, we are minorly fucked. Our Minor League system is somewhat barren of impact players. Our pitching is deep but VERY young. We have no hitters that are near ready to produce/excite in The Show. What younger players do we have that may be ML ready that we want to start the clock with service time?

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't see the need to trade Timmeh or Pence as I don't see either bringing in a blue chip prospect in return. However, if we keep them and offer them a QO, we get a supplemental 1st as both are Type A FA, IIRC. Maybe the prob is that the QO would be much higher then it should be and if that is so, we are minorly fucked. Our Minor League system is somewhat barren of impact players. Our pitching is deep but VERY young. We have no hitters that are near ready to produce/excite in The Show. What younger players do we have that may be ML ready that we want to start the clock with service time?

The concept of "Type A" FA does not exist anymore. That was removed in the last CBA.

Compensation is assigned based on offering a QO to the player. The QO is a set amount that the player has the choice of accepting on a 1-year deal. Last year, that amount was approx 13.5M. This year, I think it will be somewhere about 14.5M.

If we give QOs to Timmeh and/or Herk, they would have the option of taking that 1-year deal, or refusing it and becoming a FA. If they become a FA and sign with another team, that team will lose their first round pick (unless it is a top 10 pick) and the G's would get a comp round pick.

Timmeh is beginning to pitch himself back into the QO range, and Pence has always been a QO candidate. We would need to get value better than a top 35 pick to trade either player.

 

[Reefer]

The concept of "Type A" FA does not exist anymore. That was removed in the last CBA.

Compensation is assigned based on offering a QO to the player. The QO is a set amount that the player has the choice of accepting on a 1-year deal. Last year, that amount was approx 13.5M. This year, I think it will be somewhere about 14.5M.

If we give QOs to Timmeh and/or Herk, they would have the option of taking that 1-year deal, or refusing it and becoming a FA. If they become a FA and sign with another team, that team will lose their first round pick (unless it is a top 10 pick) and the G's would get a comp round pick.

Timmeh is beginning to pitch himself back into the QO range, and Pence has always been a QO candidate. We would need to get value better than a top 35 pick to trade either player.

If the Giants are not planning on giving Timmy a QO then I think you have to trade him and hopefully get something. I'd give both QO because I think some team will eventually cave and give Timmy something. Pence will definitely have some suitors so unless they get blown away by a desperate team I'd hold on to him.

 

[tzill]

The concept of "Type A" FA does not exist anymore. That was removed in the last CBA.

Compensation is assigned based on offering a QO to the player. The QO is a set amount that the player has the choice of accepting on a 1-year deal. Last year, that amount was approx 13.5M. This year, I think it will be somewhere about 14.5M.

If we give QOs to Timmeh and/or Herk, they would have the option of taking that 1-year deal, or refusing it and becoming a FA. If they become a FA and sign with another team, that team will lose their first round pick (unless it is a top 10 pick) and the G's would get a comp round pick.

Timmeh is beginning to pitch himself back into the QO range, and Pence has always been a QO candidate. We would need to get value better than a top 35 pick to trade either player.

This. I think that realistically, we need to expect this. I don't think the Giants want Timmah's end to be by a trade. Add in the comp pick and I don't see him being traded unless another team loses its mind.

 

[tzill]

1. Not going anywhere because of contract, youth, or awesomeness
Buster Posey
Matt Cain
Madison Bumgarner
Marco Scutaro
Brandon Crawford
Brandon Belt

2. Not going anywhere because they're having bad seasons/everythings
Jeremy Affeldt
Ryan Vogelsong
Pablo Sandoval

3. Maybe if the Giants eat all sorts of money
Barry Zito
Tim Lincecum

4. Could bring back a little something
Jose Mijares
Chad Gaudin
Javier Lopez

5. Could bring back something relatively substantial
Hunter Pence
Sergio Romo

6. Hurt
Angel Pagan
Santiago Casilla
Eric Surkamp
Hector Sanchez
Joaquin Arias

7. Little or no value
Guillermo Quiroz
Tony Abreu
Nick Noonan
Gregor Blanco
Tanaka
Andres Torres
Sandy Rosario
Jake Dunning
George Kontos
Jean Machi

Attribution to Grant Brisbee, and these are rough categories. Thoughts?

 

[Mays-Fan]

1. Not going anywhere because of contract, youth, or awesomeness
Buster Posey
Matt Cain
Madison Bumgarner
Marco Scutaro
Brandon Crawford
Brandon Belt

2. Not going anywhere because they're having bad seasons/everythings
Jeremy Affeldt
Ryan Vogelsong
Pablo Sandoval

3. Maybe if the Giants eat all sorts of money
Barry Zito
Tim Lincecum

4. Could bring back a little something
Jose Mijares
Chad Gaudin
Javier Lopez

5. Could bring back something relatively substantial
Hunter Pence
Sergio Romo

6. Hurt
Angel Pagan
Santiago Casilla
Eric Surkamp
Hector Sanchez
Joaquin Arias

7. Little or no value
Guillermo Quiroz
Tony Abreu
Nick Noonan
Gregor Blanco
Tanaka
Andres Torres
Sandy Rosario
Jake Dunning
George Kontos
Jean Machi

Attribution to Grant Brisbee, and these are rough categories. Thoughts?

I prefer the following criteria, which is, IMO, simpler, more coherent, and decision-oriented:

We actually want them here in 2014 if they are healthy:

Cain
Bum
Posey
Crawford
Belt
Panda
Pagan
Pence
Mijares
Dunning


We'll keep them because they're OK and we wouldn't get much for them anyway:

Blanco
Rosario
Casilla
Vogelsong
Gaudin
Surkamp
Machi

We'll keep them unless we can move them now for a good price:

Zito
Romo
Affeldt
Lopez
Scutaro
Lincecum

Everyone else is fair game.

 

[msgkings322]

Looking at the standings on 2013 National League Standings & Expanded Standings - Baseball-Reference.com , there's exactly ONE team that's worse than the Giants over their last 10 games in all of the majors : the Padres (1-9 vs. our 2-8). Over the last 20, or last 30, there is NO team in the majors who has a worse record.

Depressing. Maybe it is time to train up Francoeur, trade Pence and Timmy and Gaudin, rest Scutaro and Panda and Torres, play Abreu and call up some youngsters. "Extended Spring Training" to look at some rooks, fall down the standings to get a top-3 pick (although it will be hard to catch HOU or MIA).

Last 16 games (since he got back), Panda batting .148 (9 for 61)
Last 25 games, Pence batting .172 (17 for 99)
Throw in Cain and there's your 3 reasons why we are where we are, pure and simple.

Meanwhile, the good news is Bumgarner has gotten 3 consecutive wins after 4 game losing streaks by the team. If that's not a stopper/ace then nothing is.

 

[Robotech]

Last 16 games (since he got back), Panda batting .148 (9 for 61)
Last 25 games, Pence batting .172 (17 for 99)
Throw in Cain and there's your 3 reasons why we are where we are, pure and simple.

Meanwhile, the good news is Bumgarner has gotten 3 consecutive wins after 4 game losing streaks by the team. If that's not a stopper/ace then nothing is.

Bum's ASG selection is very well-deserved. His deal with us is really one of the best deals there are in baseball.

 

[msgkings322]

Bum's ASG selection is very well-deserved. His deal with us is really one of the best deals there are in baseball.

Problem is we now have 3-4 more games until he pitches again...does he get the ball game 1 after the ASB? I'd like it if Bochy doesn't put him in the Allstar game AT ALL