Official 2013 Pirates' Won-Lost Predictions

[Darkstone42]

I am a dinosaur!

I still like calculating runs created and pythag win theorem out by hand on paper with a pencil...Like I used to do as a kid

I'm something of a physicist, and these days I do most of my derivations on paper, and then use spreadsheets to do the actual calculations. When dealing with upwards of 10,000 data points, the spreadsheets become awfully useful.

In any case, I just became so comfortable with them through my research that I started using them for everyday things, like balancing my budget and keeping track of stats in all the many sports I love.

 

[Etrius24]

Yeah I tried to get used to spreadsheets 20 years ago in college..Almost got the hang of it... But went back to making lists and doing calculations out on paper.. I have little notebooks i write in.. I keep track of gas mileage, expenses, ideas..I run my business on those notebooks.

 

[magnumo]

A 10-8 record does NOT extrapolate to 90.72 wins.

It extrapolates to EXACTLY 90 wins. 18 games is exactly one ninth of a full season of 162 games. 9 x 10 = 90.

Even if one multiplies .556 (a 3-digit approximation of five ninths) times 162, one gets 90.072..... not 90.72.

 

[Etrius24]

sorry mags I was a decimal off..

I was messing around with a internet calculator and it gave me the number of .556 for a winning percentage... which over 162 extrapolated into 90.072!.. but if the number is not rounded off you are correct it is a flat 90..

And then I had the typo with the decimal... but I see you probably figured that out already.

Main thing is that they are above .500! as long as they continue to play well and their record keeps improving ever so slightly...90 wins might actually start to be a number some of us actually believe is going to happen!

Parrot already does (O;

 

[magnumo]

sorry mags I was a decimal off..

I was messing around with a internet calculator and it gave me the number of .556 for a winning percentage... which over 162 extrapolated into 90.072!.. but if the number is not rounded off you are correct it is a flat 90..

And then I had the typo with the decimal... but I see you probably figured that out already.

Main thing is that they are above .500! as long as they continue to play well and their record keeps improving ever so slightly...90 wins might actually start to be a number some of us actually believe is going to happen!

Parrot already does (O;

- There is no need to round off a number, when it already comes out as an EXACT integer..... in this case, exactly 90.

- Calculators are wonderful. However, most carry well beyond three figures, in order to avoid rounding "errors."

- The actual decimal for 10 of 18 is .55555555..... ad infinitum.

- But all that is irrelevant if one recognizes that 18 games is exactly one ninth of 162 games, as most people who pay close attention to baseball stats would..... and anyone running a contest such as this one must.

So..... what I'm seeing is that you made your first error in not recognizing that 10-8 extrapolates to EXACTLY 90-72. Then you made your second error when you reported your calculated result as 90.72 (which would round to 91 wins) rather than the correct calculated value of 90.072 (which would round to 90 wins).

 

[Etrius24]

SO

Like I already told you... But if you want to go over it again for the sake of going over everything again... Do so.

This has been discussed and addressed... We are both in agreement that it is in fact a flat 90 wins from 10 and 8... So what are you talking about now?

 

[dare2be]

85-76

Pirates have a late-season rainout that can't be made up.

Yeah, I'm late to the party, but I'll just play along at home.

 

[Etrius24]

LOL

Dare... If it meant anything ( post season) that last game would HAVE to be made up...but I suspect that 86 wins would not be enough for the wild card.

 

[element1286]

Depth Charts » Projected Standings | FanGraphs Baseball

Guess I'll put this here, it updates daily throughout the season, currently has the Pirates finishing 84-78.

 

[Etrius24]

good link

 

[Etrius24]

With the win tonight they are on pace for 96 wins!

Keep up the good work guys!

 

[Etrius24]

Update

31-19 equates into a .620 winning percentage over 162 games that translates into 100 wins!

Wow that would be amazing.

 

[Etrius24]

Tied for the second best record in all of MLB... Starting to feel like something special is going on here.

 

[Etrius24]

Second best record in MLB... 14 games over .500 Winning % of .630!

That projects to 102 wins!

Giggity

 

[Etrius24]

Second best record in MLB! .605% winning percentage.... closing in on the half way point of the season 16 games over .500! Holy crap this is enjoyable.... I even wish Mags was posting here and enjoying this.

 

[pixburgher66]

D'aww...I didn't make a prediction this year. Dangit.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

Second best record in MLB! .605% winning percentage.... closing in on the half way point of the season 16 games over .500! Holy crap this is enjoyable.... I even wish Mags was posting here and enjoying this.

Mags needs to be back here posting with us. We all should be enjoying this season together as Pirates fans.

The feud that was going on between the two of you was silly Etrius.

I'm sure we can all agree message board spats are stupid. None of us know each other personally anyway.

Again, Mags should be back here posting with all of us. It's a shame.

Burgh

 

[Etrius24]

Burgh Sports Rule

Agreed that there is no need to fight when the Pirates are playing this great!!! Hopefully the winning ways of the Bucs will unite all of us..

 

[Darkstone42]

Since mags isn't around right now, I'll go ahead and do the mid-season update. The Pirates are 51-30 (!!!) after 81 games played, which projects to a 102-60 record.

Since steelparrot's prediction had the highest number of wins, and no one else predicted 90+, he is our current leader in the contest. Congratulations to him, and congratulations in particular to the Pirates on an excellent first half of the season!

90-72 steelparrot
89-73 Etrius24
88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
86-76 smokeyburgess
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
69-93 thecrow124

 

[thedddd]

Mags needs to be back here posting with us. We all should be enjoying this season together as Pirates fans.

The feud that was going on between the two of you was silly Etrius.

I'm sure we can all agree message board spats are stupid. None of us know each other personally anyway.

Again, Mags should be back here posting with all of us. It's a shame.

Burgh

I agree not sure what happened or care to know but we are all Pirate fans and should enjoy the ride!

Anyway at this pace most of us will be eliminated sometime in July!