Official 2013 Pirates' Won-Lost Predictions

[thedddd]

I like that also. Do you just want to add it now for this season to get the number of folks involved up? I think all the folks who made their predictions will add the differential and change their predictions if they want.

 

[thecrow124]

If Jose Contreras makes the team I am changing my prediction.

 

[Etrius24]

89 wins

 

[magnumo]

Thanks to everyone who provided feedback and suggestions for the 2014 contest. I plan to revisit those next spring (assuming we do it again next year).

Note to thedddd: You may be right about the willingness of participants to add a run differential prediction this year. However, it seems inappropriate to change the rules for this year's contest after the fact. To be fair, the only right way to do that would be to obtain agreement from EVERY current participant who entered under the current rules..... and that seems like a can of worms which would best be left closed.

Note to thecrow124: I recognize that you were making a point..... but I gotta believe that, given the date of Contreras's TJ surgery, it seems VERY unlikely that he has a chance to make the team out of spring training. Hence, the contest will almost assuredly be closed to changes before Contreras can pitch for the Pirates.

I have added Etrius24 to the predictions list, at 89-73, bringing us to 19 participants. Here's the latest update:

89-73 Etrius24
88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
86-76 smokeyburgess
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
71-91 thecrow124

 

[thedddd]

Makes sense just throwing that out there, I am fine with whatever it is just a fun thing to do.

Also what is interesting in just two years how the predictions have changed. You were lucky to see one near 80+ wins and more in the 60's now none in the 60's and half .500 or better.

 

[magnumo]

Fair Warning

It's no secret that the Pirates' regular season is scheduled to open tomorrow, April 1, at 1:35pm (no April Fool jokes, please).

Since there have been no new predictions and no activity of any kind in this thread for over a month, it appears unlikely that we'll see any new or modified predictions over the next 23 hours.

Nevertheless, "fair warning" seems appropriate: I will accept new or modified predictions which are time stamped up to 1:35pm tomorrow, as long as they comply with all contest rules. Anything stamped 1:36pm or later cannot be accepted.

Unfortunately, the weather forecast looks "iffy." My online connection to the Weather Channel indicates that tomorrow in Pittsburgh will be cold (high of 42), breezy (10-20mph out of the WNW), cloudy, and rainy (40%)..... definitely NOT nice weather for baseball. Tuesday's forecast is even worse (high of 38 and a 30% chance of snow). At any rate, if opening day for the Pirates is delayed, I will delay the scheduled closing of the contest accordingly.

Good luck to all participants..... and here's hoping the Bucs' season gets off to a good start!

 

[thecrow124]

To pacify thedddd I would like to modify my prediction to 69-93. No reason not to have at least 1 prediction in the 60's.

 

[magnumo]

Wow!

OK, crow..... consider your prediction modified. Since you already had the least number of wins predicted, I don't see how anyone can complain about your modification. Actually, you opened up a couple of predictions at the low end of the new range!

Here's the updated list:

89-73 Etrius24
88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
86-76 smokeyburgess
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
69-93 thecrow124

 

[thecrow124]

Now it is time to see if anyone will nut up and predict 90+ wins. I guessing not.

 

[Darkstone42]

If anyone intends to, they're running out of time.

I'll be watching as much of the game as possible on my laptop while working on the instrument in my lab.

Oh, as an aside, I passed my final oral exam for PhD candidacy! Just in time for baseball season no less!

 

[thecrow124]

If anyone intends to, they're running out of time.

I'll be watching as much of the game as possible on my laptop while working on the instrument in my lab.

Oh, as an aside, I passed my final oral exam for PhD candidacy! Just in time for baseball season no less!

Congratulations. Have you been brewing at all or just working on school?

 

[Darkstone42]

Congratulations. Have you been brewing at all or just working on school?

I've been pretty focused on school for the past couple months, but now that I'm past that hurdle, I'm brewing on Sunday. Throughout the week I'm going to figure out what I want to make.

 

[steelparrot]

90-72

 

[magnumo]

To Darkstone: Sincere congratulations on overcoming that hurdle..... and may you continue to overcome hurdles as you pursue your doctorate. Hopefully, the Pirates can overcome a few key hurdles (pun intended) of their own, on their way to breaking the streak.

To steelparrot: I have added your prediction of 90-72 to the list. Congratulations on your optimism. I'm NOT gonna say that I hope you win..... only because I hope the Pirates win MORE THAN 90 games. Good luck.

The list is now final, with 20 participants, as follows:

90-72 steelparrot
89-73 Etrius24
88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
86-76 smokeyburgess
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
69-93 thecrow124

 

[magnumo]

With one tenth of the season behind us (already?), the Pirates' record stands at 8-8..... which puts powerchord86 in the driver's seat. Long way to go though.....

90-72 steelparrot
89-73 Etrius24
88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
86-76 smokeyburgess
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
69-93 thecrow124

 

[Etrius24]

The bucs are on a streak.. and a couple of games over .500!

Their winning % is .556! Extrapolated over 162 games that works out to 90.72 wins... Parrot is in the lead

( I am in second one game off LOL )

Idea!

maybe we should look at the winning % all season long multiply it by 162 games and then we can do a standing like they post on ESPN...

Example:

1. Parrot
2. Etrius24...... 1 game back
3. Ramburgh....2 games back

And so on and so forth... we could just post the top 5 for the sake of being a little easier?

What do you guys think?

 

[Darkstone42]

The bucs are on a streak.. and a couple of games over .500!

Their winning % is .556! Extrapolated over 162 games that works out to 90.72 wins... Parrot is in the lead

( I am in second one game off LOL )

Idea!

maybe we should look at the winning % all season long multiply it by 162 games and then we can do a standing like they post on ESPN...

Example:

1. Parrot
2. Etrius24...... 1 game back
3. Ramburgh....2 games back

And so on and so forth... we could just post the top 5 for the sake of being a little easier?

What do you guys think?

I gather that Mags is doing something similar to that at certain fractional landmarks of the season.

Keeping it up-to-date on a daily basis is a very tedious task, though, if that's what you're suggesting (I wasn't quite sure).

In any case, the only thing that really matters is the record after 162 games!

 

[Etrius24]

Darkstone

Not a daily update... way too much work.. maybe once a week

 

[Darkstone42]

Darkstone

Not a daily update... way too much work.. maybe once a week

I could do a weekly thing if Mags isn't opposed (this contest is his baby after all).

I do ever so love my spreadsheets!

 

[Etrius24]

I am a dinosaur!

I still like calculating runs created and pythag win theorem out by hand on paper with a pencil...Like I used to do as a kid