Need to finish with #5 seed to face NFC East winner.

[droider]

There is this thing called the playoff machine on ESPN and it disagrees with you.

ESPN.com's 2015 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

As you can see if the Cardinals, Packers, Vikings and Seahawks all finish 11-5, the Seahawks win the west AND get the number 2 seed.

yes i'm aware of that, but do you know the likelihood of all those scenarios falling into place? right now it's less than 5%. think about that for a second. all i'm saying is be realistic.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

yes i'm aware of that, but do you know the likelihood of all those scenarios falling into place? right now it's less than 5%. think about that for a second. all i'm saying is be realistic.

Nah, we prefer a more positive view. Looks like the Seahawks have turned the corner. Rather ride that view then your doom and gloom.

 

[droider]

Nah, we prefer a more positive view. Looks like the Seahawks have turned the corner. Rather ride that view then your doom and gloom.

now it's "doom and gloom"?

stating that it'd be great if the Hawks could get the #5 seed is being "doom and gloom"? just because i'm not counting on a less than 5% chance of something happening doesn't mean i'm not being "positive". the whole nature of this thread is something POSITIVE to reach for.

 

[Itsmytime]

Actually it's quite possible the Cardinals lose 2 to either the Vikings, Packers or Eagles.

 

[droider]

Actually it's quite possible the Cardinals lose 2 to either the Vikings, Packers or Eagles.

even so, that would just be the beginning of things falling into place. remember, the Vikings and Packers would also need to finish 11-5 which would mean that the slumping Vikings would have to win at Green Bay on the last day of the season where GB will probably be fully healthy. not only that, the Packers would need to lose a couple fluke games as well to finish 11-5.

again, the chance that this 4-way tie at 11-5 can happen has less than a 5% chance of happening. just stating the facts is all.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

now it's "doom and gloom"?

stating that it'd be great if the Hawks could get the #5 seed is being "doom and gloom"? just because i'm not counting on a less than 5% chance of something happening doesn't mean i'm not being "positive". the whole nature of this thread is something POSITIVE to reach for.

Yeah I feel your trying to frame the out look in a negative light, not going to worry about anything but winning the next game myself.

 

[SonnyCID]

now it's "doom and gloom"?

stating that it'd be great if the Hawks could get the #5 seed is being "doom and gloom"? just because i'm not counting on a less than 5% chance of something happening doesn't mean i'm not being "positive". the whole nature of this thread is something POSITIVE to reach for.

Moves those goal posts buddy!

1 game behind Vikings now, but would win the tiebreaker against them.

Otherwise, it's a WC game at Green Bay followed by potential road games at Arizona and at Carolina. Simply no way the Seahawks could make any noise with a murderous schedule like that.

there's nothing to see. Hawks can't catch Cards for the division and the #5 seed is a must for any real optimism for the playoffs.

 

[Breed]

1 year left at $5.6M guaranteed

Thanks.

Baldwin needs to average 55.5 yards per game the rest of the way to become the first Seahawk receiver to have 1000 yards in a season since Bobby Engram in 2007. If he catches 1 more TD, he'll have the most receiving TDs since Nate Burleson had 9 in 2007 (Darrell Jackson was the last to have 10 in 2006). Not exactly who everyone thought we'd be saying this about at this point in the season.

Yeah, the Hawks offensive system employed by Carroll or whoever has worked very well for them far as team-wise/winning etc. It definitely seems to have put limits on Hawks WRs and TEs far as putting up numbers. I've always liked Luke Wilson and think he could be a stud in an offense that was more friendly to a TE. And I knew Golden Tate was a baller at Norte Dame and thought he might be pretty good in the NFL, but him playing for Seattle made me forget about that. I'm just wondering if Baldwin could do something similar as GT has since signing with Detroit.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Moves those goal posts buddy!

Thanks for the post Sonny.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Eh doesn't matter at this point. Seattle is not going to claim HFA at this point, but they can beat any team. Seattle is getting hot and it's why sites like walterfootball.com gain credibility by keeping Seattle in the top 10 power rankings all season. The team has a ton of talent and is getting hot at the right time.

I'd rather take Green Bay at this point as our first WC game. They look like absolute trash atm.

 

[MrS]

Im not really worried, our defense travels and wilson has proven he can carry our offense without elites like lynch and graham. I feel very confident righ now that we could go anywhere and win.

 

[Destroydacre]

yes i'm aware of that, but do you know the likelihood of all those scenarios falling into place? right now it's less than 5%. think about that for a second. all i'm saying is be realistic.

Who honestly thought the Seahawks would win the division last year at 6-4, let alone get homefield with Arizona at 9-1 and GB, Dallas, Detroit and Philly all at 7-3?

Now don't get me wrong, I'm not at all expecting the Seahawks to make a run at the division this year, but anything can happen in the NFL.

 

[JMR]

Whether it's the 5 or the 6, we still have to go on the road in the div round vs AZ or CAR and then again on the road to face whichever one of them is left in the NFCC (assuming they hold serve at home in div round), so the biggest difference is getting the NFCE or NFCN champ in the first round. I guess NFCE would be preferable than going to GB, but the Packers are not playing well at all right now. I think if yesterday's game would have been against the Pack instead of Minn, it would have have been a similar outcome.

It seems unlikely to catch Arizona, but they haven't clinched anything yet. The Cards would have to lose 2 games over their next 3 (Minn, @ Philly, GB) and then Hawks would have to beat them. Then we go to the tie breaker to see who wins the division. H2H would be even, div record would be even, so the third thing is record in common games. I'm too lazy to look it up, but that means we probably not only need AZ to lose 2 but they need to lose them to the Vikings and Packers. Both at home.

 

[MKHawk]

even if the Cards and Hawks both finish 11-5 where the Hawks beat the Cards on the last week, Divisional tiebreaker would be next. and they'd both be 4-2 in that case. so H2H and Divisional records would be a wash. next tiebreaker would be Conference record and Cards currently hold a 3 game Conference lead over Hawks with 4 more conference games left to play.

After divisional record, the next tiebreaker is record in common games. AZ and SEA have 14 common games. Their record in uncommon games so far is
SEA: (CAR, DAL) 1-1
AZ: (NO, PHI) 1-0 (they have yet to play Philly)

So, if Seattle wins their next 3 and Arizona loses at least to MIN and GB, week 17 will be for the division.

 

[droider]

My concern is that Green Bay will likely be a lot healthier come playoff time and they'd certainly be jacked up to get revenge from last year's playoff game. I wouldn't want to have to deal with that in the WC round.

My path based on realistic outcomes from this point forward:

1. Panthers
2. Cards
3. Packers
4. Skins
5. Hawks
6. Vikings

WC: Hawks over Skins, Packers over Vikings

Divisional: Hawks over Panthers ('upset'), Packers over Cards ('upset')

NFCC: Hawks over Packers

That would mean a path of: at Washington, at Carolina, at Green Bay to make the SB. That's not too bad if you think about it.

Skins are certainly flawed. Panthers, while currently 12-0, haven't had a lot of playoff success and might break under the pressure of being the #1 seed? Also, Panthers would be coming off a bye in the 1st round so maybe they would be flat?

As for the NFCC game, I'd rather play at Green Bay than at Arizona, so I'd hope for the upset of Packers over Cards in the divisional round.

 

[Wolvie]

After divisional record, the next tiebreaker is record in common games. AZ and SEA have 14 common games. Their record in uncommon games so far is
SEA: (CAR, DAL) 1-1
AZ: (NO, PHI) 1-0 (they have yet to play Philly)

So, if Seattle wins their next 3 and Arizona loses at least to MIN and GB, week 17 will be for the division.

I thought this was true until this afternoon. If AZ loses to Philly as one of their two losses, then the tiebreaker would come down to SOV, which the playoff machine has going to AZ, which stinks.

 

[JMR]

After divisional record, the next tiebreaker is record in common games. AZ and SEA have 14 common games. Their record in uncommon games so far is
SEA: (CAR, DAL) 1-1
AZ: (NO, PHI) 1-0 (they have yet to play Philly)

So, if Seattle wins their next 3 and Arizona loses at least to MIN and GB, week 17 will be for the division.

Arizona must lose to both Minn and GB for us to have a shot at the division. I played around with the ESPN playoff generator today to verify. The Philly game does not matter at all in the div race.

 

[MKHawk]

I thought this was true until this afternoon. If AZ loses to Philly as one of their two losses, then the tiebreaker would come down to SOV, which the playoff machine has going to AZ, which stinks.

Correct, because if they lose to Philly, their record in common games would be the same as Seattle's (if they had the same record) moving on to conference record and then SOV for tie-breaking.

 

[MKHawk]

Arizona must lose to both Minn and GB for us to have a shot at the division. I played around with the ESPN playoff generator today to verify. The Philly game does not matter at all in the div race.

Right

 

[droider]

with a win against the Ravens, Hawks can take over the #5 seed from Vikes

nice win by Cards tonight to help out the Hawks