NBA OFF TOPIC THREAD

[dtgold88]

Cowherd has been pointing out for awhile now that the blueprint for Super Bowl contention is having a really good QB on his rookie deal or a veteran willing to take less (ala Brady). In both cases, it frees up money to put better players around the QB.

As soon as the QB gets paid, teams have to start letting other players go and replacing them with cheaper options that aren't as experienced and/or good.

For example, if memory serves, my Seahawks haven't been past the 1st round or maybe 2nd round of the playoffs since Wilson signed his big contract.

I'm hoping some of the younger QB's who are starting to come up for bigger deals see that and do more like Brady. Maybe Baker will be the first of the young'uns to figure that out?

Not sure I'd credit Cowhurd for coming up with this strategy but he's right.

That said, not sure they got to SB with their QBs on huge money deals, but GB, Steelers and NO were often in the mix. Be nice to see next tier take less and, sure, someone like Baker could as he has a good amount of off field income I'd imagine......then again, he does not have a wife who I'd bet makes more than every NFL player.

think what you might also see is more NFL teams taking their time on these extensions and not having another Wentz/Goff situation....and now Watson (which would be an issue even if he didn't ask for a trade).

 

[trojanfan12]

Not sure I'd credit Cowhurd for coming up with this strategy but he's right.

Yeah, I don't know where he got it from. He's just the one I've heard talk about it. He really been talking about it with the Dak stuff and all of the teams maneuvering to try to get QB's this off-season.

That said, not sure they got to SB with their QBs on huge money deals, but GB, Steelers and NO

Yeah, they've been in the mix, but neither the Packers or Steelers have been to the Super Bowl since 2010 (when they played each other) and the Saints haven't been since 2009.

think what you might also see is more NFL teams taking their time on these extensions and not having another Wentz/Goff situation....and now Watson (which would be an issue even if he didn't ask for a trade).

That, or maybe teams start offering the choice of bigger yearly salaries on shorter deals or smaller yearly salaries on longer deals. Sort of..."Hey we can give you $35 million a year for 2-3 years, but we can't guarantee the quality of the roster around you...or we'll pay you $20 million a year for 4-5 years and keep a good roster around you".

I wonder if what you say about the Wentz/Goff situations is part of why the Jets are having trouble finding a deal for Sam Darnold? Pretty much all of the "experts", GM's and coaches that I've heard talk about him, really like his talent and seem to think he can be a good NFL QB. But he's due for a new deal after this season and they don't want to have to commit big money to him in case he's not as good as they think. Or in case Gase broke him beyond repair.

 

[shopson67]

Still wonder what they do in offseason. Guess a lock to pick up 5th year on him. Unless Baker will take less (maybe a lot less) than what he could get on open market I suspect he wont be extended until after next season.

With the struggles of guys like Wentz and Goff, you're better off waiting on the extension to make sure you have what you want. Not a shot at Baker, I would hope the Bills do the same. Plus, the timing would be better with the next TV deal.

 

[tlance]

With the struggles of guys like Wentz and Goff, you're better off waiting on the extension to make sure you have what you want. Not a shot at Baker, I would hope the Bills do the same. Plus, the timing would be better with the next TV deal.

Just trust me when I tell you that the alternative is worse.

See Dak and Kirk Cousins.

Don’t mess around with the franchise QB. Extend him early and secure the future. If he ends up going the route of Goff and Wentz, the team is going to struggle regardless.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Just trust me when I tell you that the alternative is worse.

See Dak and Kirk Cousins.

Don’t mess around with the franchise QB. Extend him early and secure the future. If he ends up going the route of Goff and Wentz, the team is going to struggle regardless.

In the Browns case I can see wanting a second run of the same from last year but definitely need to lock him down if he replicates

 

[dtgold88]

With the struggles of guys like Wentz and Goff, you're better off waiting on the extension to make sure you have what you want. Not a shot at Baker, I would hope the Bills do the same. Plus, the timing would be better with the next TV deal.

I can go along with this thinking (unless he'll take a lot less). I mean, what's worse case if you wait? He has a great year and they have to pay him a lot? Not the worst problem.

 

[dtgold88]

Just trust me when I tell you that the alternative is worse.

See Dak and Kirk Cousins.

Don’t mess around with the franchise QB. Extend him early and secure the future. If he ends up going the route of Goff and Wentz, the team is going to struggle regardless.

OK, but why can't they wait until after this season and before even his 5th year option year happens?

 

[shopson67]

Just trust me when I tell you that the alternative is worse.

See Dak and Kirk Cousins.

Don’t mess around with the franchise QB. Extend him early and secure the future. If he ends up going the route of Goff and Wentz, the team is going to struggle regardless.

I would at least pick up the 5th year first, then negotiate from there. Get the best picture you can before locking in. I wouldn't want to let it get as far as tagging the QB unless absolutely necessary. Dak and Cousins are outliers and their teams STILL weren't sure they wanted to invest when they got to the franchise step.

 

[tlance]

OK, but why can't they wait until after this season and before even his 5th year option year happens?

They can, but every time he plays well the price goes up.

That is exactly what happened in Washington. Management wanted Cousins to prove it after his breakout year so they didn’t extend him. He proved it, then logically wanted more money after playing well again. And the WFT decided to franchise him instead of signing him.

No Cousins is nothing special. But they could have originally signed him long term for about what they paid him over the course of the 2 franchise tags.

Right now, there is a case to be made that Baker is a risk. Because he is somewhat risky, the Browns won’t have to pay him as much if they extend him now.

So if he is your guy, they should just do it now.

Once you are sure, you are going to have to make him one of the richest QBs out there.

 

[dtgold88]

They can, but every time he plays well the price goes up.

That is exactly what happened in Washington. Management wanted Cousins to prove it after his breakout year so they didn’t extend him. He proved it, then logically wanted more money after playing well again. And the WFT decided to franchise him instead of signing him.

No Cousins is nothing special. But they could have originally signed him long term for about what they paid him over the course of the 2 franchise tags.

Right now, there is a case to be made that Baker is a risk. Because he is somewhat risky, the Browns won’t have to pay him as much if they extend him now.

So if he is your guy, they should just do it now.

Once you are sure, you are going to have to make him one of the richest QBs out there.

Good case can be made either way. IF he'll take less, sure, go ahead and sign him. But I could see wanting him to do it again (or even improve). And if the problem is he offers more proof with an even better season not exactly a bad problem to have.

 

[tlance]

Good case can be made either way. IF he'll take less, sure, go ahead and sign him. But I could see wanting him to do it again (or even improve). And if the problem is he offers more proof with an even better season not exactly a bad problem to have.

The price goes up every year. Inflation on QB contracts is right there with college tuition.

Only way his price goes down next year is if he has a bad season. Otherwise it will be higher because the market price gets higher every year.

 

[dtgold88]

The price goes up every year. Inflation on QB contracts is right there with college tuition.

Only way his price goes down next year is if he has a bad season. Otherwise it will be higher because the market price gets higher every year.

well no shit. But they also do not want to find themselves in a Wentz or Goff situation wondering how they can get out of the deal.

None of this is to say don't sign him, but gonna need to both give a little to get something done THIS offseason.

 

[tlance]

well no shit. But they also do not want to find themselves in a Wentz or Goff situation wondering how they can get out of the deal.

None of this is to say don't sign him, but gonna need to both give a little to get something done THIS offseason.

Trying to avoid the Wentz and Goff situation is exactly what burned Washington and Dallas.

If you think Baker is your guy, there are more reasons to get the deal done today than there are to wait. This is not the time to get cheap.

 

[dtgold88]

Trying to avoid the Wentz and Goff situation is exactly what burned Washington and Dallas.

If you think Baker is your guy, there are more reasons to get the deal done today than there are to wait. This is not the time to get cheap.

Not sure I'd compare Cousins as possible they think more highly of Baker. Neither Dak nor Couisns had a 5th year option either so that buys some time.

what are you thinking is worse case of waiting one year if they go that route? He balls out and, oh no, they have to pay an elite level QB?

Nothing they've done in past makes me think they'll get cheap on this.

 

[thunderc]

Trying to avoid the Wentz and Goff situation is exactly what burned Washington and Dallas.

If you think Baker is your guy, there are more reasons to get the deal done today than there are to wait. This is not the time to get cheap.

One million percent correct. I really don’t expect them to screw around with this much, Mayfield is just too popular up there..

 

[tlance]

Not sure I'd compare Cousins as possible they think more highly of Baker. Neither Dak nor Couisns had a 5th year option either so that buys some time.

what are you thinking is worse case of waiting one year if they go that route? He balls out and, oh no, they have to pay an elite level QB?

Nothing they've done in past makes me think they'll get cheap on this.

Waiting could cost them a pro-bowl caliber player as a cap casualty.

I don’t think there is a reason to wait.

3 possible courses of action for the Browns to peruse:

1) if you think he is your guy, extend him now
2) if you don’t think he is your guy, trade him now while his value is at its apex
3) Do nothing and reevaluate next year

The passive solution is the wrong solution, IMO. He has been their starter for 3 years, they know how he is in practice, in the locker room, etc. I just don’t think it makes sense to wait if Baker wants to get something done now.

 

[dtgold88]

One million percent correct. I really don’t expect them to screw around with this much, Mayfield is just too popular up there..

I wouldn't say they will "screw around with it", but what I like about this regime is they don't let fans or emotion factor into their thinking.

 

[dtgold88]

Waiting could cost them a pro-bowl caliber player as a cap casualty.

I don’t think there is a reason to wait.

3 possible courses of action for the Browns to peruse:

1) if you think he is your guy, extend him now
2) if you don’t think he is your guy, trade him now while his value is at its apex
3) Do nothing and reevaluate next year

The passive solution is the wrong solution, IMO. He has been their starter for 3 years, they know how he is in practice, in the locker room, etc. I just don’t think it makes sense to wait if Baker wants to get something done now.

OK, but as is so often the case you think it's 100% one way or another. They have these things called negotiations. If there is a number they both can live with he will be signed this offseason. If not, it could happen after next year. If it's more than it would have been this year then so be it. Cap is expected to go up in 2022 and explode in 2023.

what I love best about the situation is no matter what happens I have no reason to not give this regime the benefit of the doubt.

 

[shopson67]

Trying to avoid the Wentz and Goff situation is exactly what burned Washington and Dallas.

If you think Baker is your guy, there are more reasons to get the deal done today than there are to wait. This is not the time to get cheap.

Nah, those teams took it even further. There is a happy medium; you have to make a decision to extend or cut bait during that 5th year at the latest. If you let it get to franchise tags, you deserve what your pain...

 

[tlance]

OK, but as is so often the case you think it's 100% one way or another. They have these things called negotiations. If there is a number they both can live with he will be signed this offseason. If not, it could happen after next year. If it's more than it would have been this year then so be it. Cap is expected to go up in 2022 and explode in 2023.

what I love best about the situation is no matter what happens I have no reason to not give this regime the benefit of the doubt.

I don’t think it is 100%. What are you talking about?

All I am saying is if he is your franchise QB, the sooner you sign him, the better deal you get.