MLB trade deadline 2012

[msgkings322]

Jim Bowden: San Francisco Giants GM Brian Sabean has no plans on making another Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran type of deal at this year’s deadline. However, that won’t stop them from trading for another run producing bat or two, as Brandon Belt and Gregor Blanco haven't provided the punch the Giants need.

Kind of what most of us expect. Might be a quiet couple of weeks. I'd be thrilled with adding a top-notch, late-game relief pitcher.

That quote doesn't make any sense. They won't do another Wheeler for Beltran, but they will trade for a run producing bat...like, say, Carlos Beltran? Who they gonna trade for a run producing Beltran-like bat? Seems like if they want a bat they gotta trade something. Like a good pitching prospect, like maybe a Zach Wheeler or something?

Maybe he's just saying we won't trade for a 2 month rental. That I can agree with.

 

[tzill]

I am saying that they lose a (potential) draft pick because the player is no longer with the team and that they won't be able to get that extra pick.

I think that the new comp rules make it *more* likely that teams will get comp picks (for good-to-great players).

In the old system, to get a comp draft pick, the team had to offer arbitration (or lose the player before the arb offer date). By offering arb, they could have to pay a LOT. Dangerous thing to do to offer arb to (say) Bonds or CC Sabathia (or Timmy) - it could cost you 20-30 million if they accepted.

In the new system, all you have to do is offer a contract worth at least the average of the top 125 salaries. What is that? $7M? $8M? So teams can now offer much, much less (and a known amount, not something to be determined by committee 4 months later). I think a lot of teams would do that for a draft pick - it's sort of a win-win for them (if it's a good player). Think the Giants will offer Melky $8M for one year? Sure (supposing they can still negotiate for a longer contract, and his refusal of said contract doesn't preclude negotiations continuing).

So the team trading a good-to-great player away is losing the chance of an extra draft pick the following year. That's what I meant by the selling team "loses a (potential) draft pick". The team trading (say) Melky is losing the chance to offer him $8M/one-year contract and get an extra draft pick.

When I said Selling teams may think "we should be getting more than that, so why should we trade" and not pull the trigger (because they lose the draft picks still, even if the acquiring teams don't get them). I meant that the "selling" team is still losing the (potential) extra draft pick in the suppl round, even though the "buying" team can't get that extra pick (because players have to be with the team all year for the team to get the extra draft pick). The "buying" team may be getting less, but the "selling" team is still losing that (potential) extra draft pick. So selling teams may not accept lower offers, and would rather just get the extra draft pick, instead of a marginal offer.

Is that understandable, or am I missing your point entirely?

No, I get what you're saying. All I would add is that the qualifying amount is projected to be $11-12MM, not the $8M you guessed. Won't matter for Leche as the Giants will offer him the qualifying amount. I don't think the effect on sellers will be that big regarding the potential supp pick -- they generally are teams looking to chop payroll and less likely to risk $11-12MM to keep the pick. That's a lot of money for a pick in the 30s.

 

[tzill]

That quote doesn't make any sense. They won't do another Wheeler for Beltran, but they will trade for a run producing bat...like, say, Carlos Beltran? Who they gonna trade for a run producing Beltran-like bat? Seems like if they want a bat they gotta trade something. Like a good pitching prospect, like maybe a Zach Wheeler or something?

Maybe he's just saying we won't trade for a 2 month rental. That I can agree with.

SabeySabes has been quoted saying just that -- he's got to get more than 2 months to part with prospects.

 

[CameronFrye]

What browser are you using? I check the board on Mozilla at work, and Safari from my iPad. I find that threads are left in the "read" status even though new posts exist only rarely, and usually when I have not been to the board in more than a day or so.

Try the new Chrome browser for the iPad. IMO it is much better than Safari.

 

[MarcoPolo]

No, I get what you're saying. All I would add is that the qualifying amount is projected to be $11-12MM, not the $8M you guessed. Won't matter for Leche as the Giants will offer him the qualifying amount. I don't think the effect on sellers will be that big regarding the potential supp pick -- they generally are teams looking to chop payroll and less likely to risk $11-12MM to keep the pick. That's a lot of money for a pick in the 30s.

Holy CRAP! $11-12MM? AVERAGE of the top 125 players is $11M ?!!? I think it's time for us fans to start a movement to reduce costs (to US - fuck the owners). How about a "beer boycott" (i.e. , "drink before you go") or a "food boycott" (i.e., "girls, satisfy your sausage craving before the game").

 

[SFGRTB]

Chris Perez of the Indians huh? Ken Rosenthal reports our interest. He'd be a huge upgrade, but come at a high price, and I don't see it. I see the Giants making minor bullpen moves like Ramon Ramirez/Javier Lopez back in 2010.

 

[calsnowskier]

Chris Perez of the Indians huh? Ken Rosenthal reports our interest. He'd be a huge upgrade, but come at a high price, and I don't see it. I see the Giants making minor bullpen moves like Ramon Ramirez/Javier Lopez back in 2010.

I agree.

I saw this, and the first thing I thought was "Who would we send and what would we do with him next year?"

No thanks. Too expensive.

 

[SFGRTB]

Ryan Dempster apparently going to the.... Braves.

Not the Dodgers.

 

[msgkings322]

Ryan Dempster apparently going to the.... Braves.

Not the Dodgers.

This is good, although I'm sure the Dodgers will keep trying: Greinke, Hamels, etc

I wish Agent Ned would have jumped at Jon Sanchez.

 

[tzill]

I agree.

I saw this, and the first thing I thought was "Who would we send and what would we do with him next year?"

No thanks. Too expensive.

If we did get him, we'd cut Weez and have him under team control through 2014. He'd cost too much though.

 

[SFGRTB]

This is good, although I'm sure the Dodgers will keep trying: Greinke, Hamels, etc

I wish Agent Ned would have jumped at Jon Sanchez.

Doubt they have enough. They have to target guys where they can absorb salary, or stick to the FA market (Dempster was exactly that until he ripped off 33 straight scoreless innings, which is why they didn't get him) because they just don't have the prospect to make any moves.

 

[msgkings322]

Doubt they have enough. They have to target guys where they can absorb salary, or stick to the FA market (Dempster was exactly that until he ripped off 33 straight scoreless innings, which is why they didn't get him) because they just don't have the prospect to make any moves.

I didn't realize they didn't have pieces worth enough. That's excellent news. If they don't get a bat and a pitcher we should have enough to take the division.

 

[MarcoPolo]

If we did get {Chris Perez}, we'd cut Weez and have him under team control through 2014. He'd cost too much though.

This.

 

[calsnowskier]

If we did get him, we'd cut Weez and have him under team control through 2014. He'd cost too much though.

I think it would cost one of our top guys (Crick, Brown, Joseph). Too much for a closer, IMHO.

 

[ColinCoby]

I wonder if Sabean is inquiring about Aramis Ramirez. He only has two years left on his contract (after this season), and would allow us to move Pablo to 1st base.


Edit: After doing some research...Ramirez is making only $6 million this year, but if I'm reading the information right, his contract is backloaded. He is due another $30 million over the next two years. Yikes.

Still, imagine this lineup down the stretch:

Blanco
Melk
Posey
Ramirez
Pablo
Pagan
Rye Ontario
Craw

 

[tzill]

I think it would cost one of our top guys (Crick, Brown, Joseph). Too much for a closer, IMHO.

Depends on the particular guy. Crick, probably not, Brown almost certainly not. ToJo, maybe. We've got Buster and Hector, and THE MAN in A ball...

 

[calsnowskier]

Depends on the particular guy. Crick, probably not, Brown almost certainly not. ToJo, maybe. We've got Buster and Hector, and THE MAN in A ball...

I would NOTNOTNOTNOT deal ToJo for Perez.

As far as a 1-4-1 deal, I would NOT do Brown/Crick/Joseph. I MIGHT do Blackburn/Panik/Mejia, and would do just about anyone else that is tradeable (Cabrera/Javier/Stratton are not tradeable yet, I believe).

 

[mistgl]

I would NOTNOTNOTNOT deal ToJo for Perez.

As far as a 1-4-1 deal, I would NOT do Brown/Crick/Joseph. I MIGHT do Blackburn/Panik/Mejia, and would do just about anyone else that is tradeable (Cabrera/Javier/Stratton are not tradeable yet, I believe).

I wouldn't trade Blackburn either. Crick, Brown, Tojo, and Blackburn would all be off limits if I was the big cheese. Everyone else is free game.

No offense to Tzills' mancrush, but THE MAN has been the shit, and not in the good way

In more positive news, the Marlins are selling! I would totally go after Bonafacio.

 

[tzill]

Since the Fish are in full on sell mode, they are rumored to be shopping HanRam. What would you give up (if anything) to get him? I'm thinking Belt would be in the package.

Second, might Randy Choate be available? Could we use another lefty killer?

Discuss...

 

[iHATEdodgers]

Since the Fish are in full on sell mode, they are rumored to be shopping HanRam. What would you give up (if anything) to get him? I'm thinking Belt would be in the package.

Second, might Randy Choate be available? Could we use another lefty killer?

Discuss...

I would give up Belt but I wouldn't want to part with any of our top prospects for him. #1 He's a dumbass. Bordering on cancer. #2 he's just not that good anymore. I don't know if he was roiding early in his career or if he's just lazy now, but he's like a poor mans Uggla at this point. Except that he's really really expensive. So yeah, the Fish would have to pay most of his salary too. But I'd rather just not.