Kickers

[averagejoe]

I know what youre thinking. Kickers? Seriously?

Gotta say, i think many of you will be impressed with the research and angle this author took.

Spoiler alert, its not just about kickers. Its about the offense and the tendancies they have (or dont have) when it comes to field goals.

Plus its slow here.

How To Spot A Great Fantasy Football Kicker

Denny Carter outlines which kickers were over and under their expected field goal attempts in 2021, and what that means for 2022.

www.nbcsportsedge.com

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I know what youre thinking. Kickers? Seriously?

Gotta say, i think many of you will be impressed with the research and angle this author took.

Spoiler alert, its not just about kickers. Its about the offense and the tendancies they have (or dont have) when it comes to field goals.

Plus its slow here.

How To Spot A Great Fantasy Football Kicker

Denny Carter outlines which kickers were over and under their expected field goal attempts in 2021, and what that means for 2022.

www.nbcsportsedge.com

IMO there are 4 strategies for kickers that are good

1. High scoring offense
2. Run first offense
3. late bye team
4. Stream

other than those 4 strategies none deserve any attention

 

[SmokingMonkey]

IMO there are 4 strategies for kickers that are good

1. High scoring offense
2. Run first offense
3. late bye team
4. Stream

other than those 4 strategies none deserve any attention

left off the ever important 'kicks the ball really far' metric

always prefer a guy with a big leg where the team has confidence in letting him rip those 50+ yarders - can make 2 FGs + 1 or 2 XPs and still give you a top end K score for the week vs needing 3-4 FGs to have an advantage

 

[averagejoe]

Not to poke holes in your strategy but the Ravens had the 17th ranked scoring offense and yet Tucker is usually first off the board.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Not to poke holes in your strategy but the Ravens had the 17th ranked scoring offense and yet Tucker is usually first off the board.

but they are a run first offense...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Not to poke holes in your strategy but the Ravens had the 17th ranked scoring offense and yet Tucker is usually first off the board.

but they are a run first team... so they fit my main 4 strategies... so no hole was poked...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

left off the ever important 'kicks the ball really far' metric

always prefer a guy with a big leg where the team has confidence in letting him rip those 50+ yarders - can make 2 FGs + 1 or 2 XPs and still give you a top end K score for the week vs needing 3-4 FGs to have an advantage

IMO long field goals are the worst metric to draft a kicker... it doesnt happen often enough that it even matters... might help you once every 4 games...

 

[SteelersPride]

Hasnt the giants kicker done well the past few years

 

[SmokingMonkey]

IMO long field goals are the worst metric to draft a kicker...

I'd say the same thing if I could only kick the short ones!

 

[TKOSpikes]

IMO there are 4 strategies for kickers that are good

1. High scoring offense
2. Run first offense
3. late bye team
4. Stream

other than those 4 strategies none deserve any attention

Stream can get tricky… “vs opp” can be deceiving.
Late Bye team… doesn’t move my needle
Run first offense… I’d need more science behind that.
High scoring… over the season, yeah, but extra points aren’t as good as FG.

I have two criteria…

Dome team
Prater…always Prater!

 

[SmokingMonkey]

@averagejoe I enjoyed the look into kickers, thx for sharing the article.
I think a big piece comes down to 2 factors - avg at least 2 FG attempts per game and being an accurate kicker

Last yr had 5 guys when you cross reference at least 2 FGA/game + over 90% accuracy that started at least 12 games, sorted descending by FGA:

1. Carlson 2.5 FGA / 93% (4th in NFL) / 174 fpts (1st in NFL) --- LV was 11th in yds per game / 18th in pts per game
2. Boswell 2.4 / 90% (9th) / 162 fpts (3rd) --- PIT was 23rd / 21st
3. Folk 2.3 / 92.3% (5th) 171 fpts (2nd) --- NWE was 15th / 6th
4. Tucker 2.2 / 94.6% (1st) / 162 fpts (3rd) --- BAL was 6th / 17th
5. Gay 2 / 94.1% (2nd) / 159 fpts (4th) --- LAR was 9th / 8th

They were the top 5 fantasy kickers for the season, their teams weren't all run-heavy (BAL/NWE) or all pass-heavy (LV, LAR) , and 3 of them were in the bottom half of the league in pts per game. Not sure when they had their bye weeks last year!

 

[SmokingMonkey]

*Matt Gay was 5th in fantasy pts last year not 4th, since Boswell and Tucker tied for 3rd

 

[averagejoe]

@averagejoe I enjoyed the look into kickers, thx for sharing the article.
I think a big piece comes down to 2 factors - avg at least 2 FG attempts per game and being an accurate kicker

Last yr had 5 guys when you cross reference at least 2 FGA/game + over 90% accuracy that started at least 12 games, sorted descending by FGA:

1. Carlson 2.5 FGA / 93% (4th in NFL) / 174 fpts (1st in NFL) --- LV was 11th in yds per game / 18th in pts per game
2. Boswell 2.4 / 90% (9th) / 162 fpts (3rd) --- PIT was 23rd / 21st
3. Folk 2.3 / 92.3% (5th) 171 fpts (2nd) --- NWE was 15th / 6th
4. Tucker 2.2 / 94.6% (1st) / 162 fpts (3rd) --- BAL was 6th / 17th
5. Gay 2 / 94.1% (2nd) / 159 fpts (4th) --- LAR was 9th / 8th

They were the top 5 fantasy kickers for the season, their teams weren't all run-heavy (BAL/NWE) or all pass-heavy (LV, LAR) , and 3 of them were in the bottom half of the league in pts per game. Not sure when they had their bye weeks last year!

As was pointed out in the article:

"Pittsburgh’s low-octane offense could barely generate 300 total yards per game -- about the same as the Bears and Lions -- and yet Chris Boswell saw consistent opportunity and finished as the game’s sixth-highest scoring kicker."

Or even as the one chart pointed out in the article, the top 4 offenses/coaches to attempt field goals were:
1) LV
2) PIT
3) NE
4) MIN

The rest of the top offenses/coaches to attempt field goals per the article:
7) DAL
8) IND
9) BAL, CIN, ARI, LAR, GB
13) PHI, NYG
14) WSH

 

[femurov]

Stream can get tricky… “vs opp” can be deceiving.
Late Bye team… doesn’t move my needle
Run first offense… I’d need more science behind that.
High scoring… over the season, yeah, but extra points aren’t as good as FG.

I have two criteria…

Dome team
Prater…always Prater!

Yeah, weather is a factor I look at. Especially coming down the stretch. Don't want to go into a playoff game with you kicker in a blizzard. Dome teams or warm weather cities.

 

[molsaniceman]

@averagejoe I enjoyed the look into kickers, thx for sharing the article.
I think a big piece comes down to 2 factors - avg at least 2 FG attempts per game and being an accurate kicker

Last yr had 5 guys when you cross reference at least 2 FGA/game + over 90% accuracy that started at least 12 games, sorted descending by FGA:

1. Carlson 2.5 FGA / 93% (4th in NFL) / 174 fpts (1st in NFL) --- LV was 11th in yds per game / 18th in pts per game
2. Boswell 2.4 / 90% (9th) / 162 fpts (3rd) --- PIT was 23rd / 21st
3. Folk 2.3 / 92.3% (5th) 171 fpts (2nd) --- NWE was 15th / 6th
4. Tucker 2.2 / 94.6% (1st) / 162 fpts (3rd) --- BAL was 6th / 17th
5. Gay 2 / 94.1% (2nd) / 159 fpts (4th) --- LAR was 9th / 8th

They were the top 5 fantasy kickers for the season, their teams weren't all run-heavy (BAL/NWE) or all pass-heavy (LV, LAR) , and 3 of them were in the bottom half of the league in pts per game. Not sure when they had their bye weeks last year!

heres the top 10 from suicide league

i thinkNE/Bal is more about stalling offense then its a run 1st

phi/ind where top 2 run offenses by yards gained

 

[Barilko]

well going in last round and pending where ya pick also dictates what kicker as the choices dwindle

i do indeed look for the late bye because if things work out i know who to drop to keep my kicker

i do like trying to chose the offense that i feel will stall and give ample opportunities to their kicker but that is easier said then done yet if the stalling team is chasing the game they aint kicking..

dome will influence me as well but more so when choosing between a couple i like equally ...

 

[TREFF]

well those factors are all well and good, and likely a sound strategy, if you choose to put that kind of time into the postion.
For me, its always been-
wait to see who is left in the final two rounds and then-
#1 teams with a good offense who get plenty of red zone chances, but that aren't' necessarily good at converting (which is tough to predict)
#2 indoor
if there are still two viable options given those two criteria that seems mostly equal..than yes I will go for the bigger leg--which does happen significantly more often than once every 4 games. 11 kickers averaged better than that last year, 6 of those were under one every 2 games, 3 of which averaged one every other game-or better

But so long as I'm not drafting a kicker before the final 2 rounds, and making sure that I'm ready to pull the trigger if he's not measuring up to whatever schmuck rises off the scrap heap that particular year (there's always one or two..Nick Folk for example last year), then I'm happy

 

[TKOSpikes]

I have six leagues (three dynasties, one keep-6, two redrafts)

Matt Prater is my kicker in six leagues

 

[PhilSimms11]

Top 10 kickers in my league last year were as follows (remember, in this league you get 6 points for 60-yard FGs)

*(1)Daniel Carlson--174
*(2)Nick Folk--171
(3)Justin Tucker--167
*(4)Chris Boswell--162
(5)Matt Gay--159
(6)Greg Joseph--156
*(7)Matt Prater--155
*(8)Evan McPherson--154
*(9)Jake Elliott--150
*(10)Dustin Hopkins--147
*undrafted

 

[TREFF]

Top 10 kickers in my league last year were as follows (remember, in this league you get 6 points for 60-yard FGs)

*(1)Daniel Carlson--174
*(2)Nick Folk--171
(3)Justin Tucker--167
*(4)Chris Boswell--162
(5)Matt Gay--159
(6)Greg Joseph--156
*(7)Matt Prater--155
*(8)Evan McPherson--154
*(9)Jake Elliott--150
*(10)Dustin Hopkins--147
*undrafted

I think it's more often than not that kickers not drafted in fantasy drafts August/Sept. end up leading the league. it why those people who take Tucker in the 12th are just so damned laughable